Newin Started A Joke, But Who Will Have Last Laugh?

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ANALYSIS

Newin started a joke, but who will have last laugh?

By Tulsathit Taptim,

Piyanart Srivalo

The Nation

Was Newin's prediction on next PM just an attempt to save his future or does he know more than everyone else?

A football analogy seems fitting as far as Newin Chidchob's daring prediction on post-election Thailand is concerned. What he said to a group of reporters on Wednesday is equivalent to claiming that one team will not win the trophy despite storming to a 3-0 lead in the first half of a final.

"Maybe he should go back to managing a football club," Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva quipped after many newspapers splashed Newin's stunning forecast on the front pages. The Pheu Thai Party is equally, if not more, sarcastic. "Newin was just imagining," said Pheu Thai spokesman Prompong Nopparit. A more or less similar response from Thaksin Shinawatra was conveyed to the media by his legal aide Noppadol Pattama.

Newin's "imagination" has it that neither Democrat leader Abhisit nor Pheu Thai leader Yingluck Shinawatra would be the next prime minister, no matter which way the July 3 election goes. In addition, he foresaw a 111-seat sweep for his Bhum Jai Thai Party. Newin insisted that his not-Abhisit, not-Yingluck scenario was very scientific as it was based on the "highly unusual" percentage of voters who remain undecided, but his predicted numbers of seats for the top three parties showed he may not be so good at mathematics.

He's seeing Pheu Thai garnering 210 seats, compared to 160 for the Democrats. Add the 111 seats he expects his Bhumjai Thai Party to win and there will be fewer than 20 seats left for the rest of the pack. That is unlikely, but the political focus, of course, was firmly on his adamant theory on the new prime minister. He is not alone in believing that Thai politics is so abnormal that it can't be decided only by who comes first or second in the election.

So, Newin probably was being "scientific" as he claimed, or he was only attempting a desperate measure to cool down the Yingluck fever that is threatening Bhum Jai Thai's future. Newin's loose alliance with the Chart Thai Pattana Party will be in danger of breaking in the event of a Pheu Thai landslide, therefore his bold dismissal of Yingluck's chances could have been intended to make Banharn Silipa-archa think twice if he wants to renounce the pact.

Newin's unexpected move refuelled the on-and-off speculation about a "compromise choice" prime minister who will not make Thailand's political strife worse. The chief adviser of the Chart Thai Pattana Party is known to have had frequent contacts with Thaksin while keeping good ties with Thaksin's enemies. This has made many analysts refuse to discount Sanan as an alternative prime minister, no matter how amazing Pheu Thai is doing in opinion polls.

Sanan, however, is way down the line of possible prime ministerial candidates. If Thaksin does not want to risk Yingluck, he still has choices in the Pheu Thai Party, most remarkably Yongyuth Wichaidit, who is next to her on the party list. And in the event that the Democrats manage to grab the initiative to form the next government, they are unlikely to offer him the top post as it is very "un-Abhisit-like" to do so.

Abhisit has proved to be one who does not give up easily. However, if he quits the Democrat Party's helm at the crucial moment, probably because of a resounding defeat to Pheu Thai, his mentor Chuan Leekpai will be the most likely man to come back to the party's rescue. If Chuan returns to the party's top, will he become a prime ministerial candidate? That is a matter of "when". If Chuan returns as party leader when the door to the top executive post remains open, he will be in contention.

Is Newin a desperate man trying to save his future or is he someone who knows better than most of the Thai public? The final whistle is five weeks or so away and the answer should come then.

-- The Nation 2011-05-27

[janverbeem]

Was Newin's prediction on next PM just an attempt to save his future or does he know more than everyone else?

No,Newin is fortune teller and just looked in his crystal ball.

[Thaddeus]

Was Newin's prediction on next PM just an attempt to save his future or does he know more than everyone else?

No,Newin is fortune teller and just looked in his crystal ball.

Newin doesn't predict the future, he buys it.

[OzMick]

The authors seem to accept the political reality that PTP is owned and run for the convenience of Thaksin. Democracy at its finest, I don't think.

" If Thaksin does not want to risk Yingluck, he still has choices in the Pheu Thai Party..........."

[Bagwan]

Just a gentle reminder folks.

2005 UEFA Champions League Final

Half time Milan 3 Liverpool 0 The cup ended up on Merseyside.

In the early 70's I went with friends to watch Leyton Orient (who you might ask) playing against a mighty Chelsea side. At half time Chelsea were coasting at 3-0. In the second half Leyton Orient scored 4 lucky goals. On the way home nobody spoke a word such was our shock until we reached the end of Whitechapel Road. Then a quiet voice said, "Let's go for a drink," and we piled into The Blind Beggar - and left much the worse for wear several hours later.

I don't want to think about the Arsenal vs Newcastle and Arsenal vs Wigan results this season.

Thai people, a smidgen of advice. Wait until the Fat Lady sings.

[bangkockney]

You beat me to it Bagwan!

[jimbeam1]

You beat me to it Bagwan!

No he didn't?

Cmo'n Man U....

jb1

[samurai]

Newin made nothing else than suggesting a solution how PT and BJT can come together to a coalition in a face saving manner.

[Buchholz]

Was Newin's prediction on next PM just an attempt to save his future or does he know more than everyone else?

No,Newin is fortune teller and just looked in his crystal ball.

The same crystal ball was borrowed earlier by the Pheu Thai Party when they promised they were going to win 270 seats.

Which was a modification in fortune telling from when Chalerm first held the crystal ball even earlier and promised they were going to win 300 seats.

[rreddin]

Just a gentle reminder folks.

2005 UEFA Champions League Final

Half time Milan 3 Liverpool 0 The cup ended up on Merseyside.

In the early 70's I went with friends to watch Leyton Orient (who you might ask) playing against a mighty Chelsea side. At half time Chelsea were coasting at 3-0. In the second half Leyton Orient scored 4 lucky goals. On the way home nobody spoke a word such was our shock until we reached the end of Whitechapel Road. Then a quiet voice said, "Let's go for a drink," and we piled into The Blind Beggar - and left much the worse for wear several hours later.

I don't want to think about the Arsenal vs Newcastle and Arsenal vs Wigan results this season.

Thai people, a smidgen of advice. Wait until the Fat Lady sings.

Wise words. Who knows what the "hidden hand" will do if they do not like the mandate given by the electorate.

Was not the "Blind Beggar" the Krays watering hole? Were you in their gang?