Fears Of Political Instability Spur Foreign Funds To Dump Thai Stocks

[webfact]

EDITORIAL

Fears of political instability spur foreign funds to dump Thai stocks

By The Nation

Some investors tip a negative impact on the SET if Pheu Thai wins election

Foreign fund managers have been advising clients to unload Thai stocks ahead of the July 3 election. So far the SET Index has fallen 10 per cent from its April 21 high, as investors are concerned about political instability.

Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse have recommended underweighting equities in portfolios. The most sensitive to the political uncertainty are the banking, property and tourism sectors.

"We are taking a less optimistic view on the market. We still are positive on the economy, earnings and prospects for tax cuts, but recommend taking a more neutral stance on Thailand," Credit Suisse said.

"We have conducted a thorough analysis of the public opinion surveys of the past month, and give Thaksin a significant advantage. We see no major policy differences between the two large parties, but expect the market to react negatively if Pheu Thai forms a government … Some in the market seem to believe that politics is a side-show, whereas our analysis indicates that politics matters considerably for both the economy and market multiples."

Institutional investors now share the impression that the Pheu Thai Party is likely to come out on top in this election. This would then pave the way for the return of Thaksin Shinawatra to Thailand - a scenario that is certainly going to trigger another episode of political upheaval. This is the single most important factor driving the stock market down.

Pheu Thai would snatch 43 per cent of the vote if the election were held today, compared with 37 per cent for the Democrat Party, according to a Dusit Poll survey of 4,694 people from May 23-28. Pheu Thai is the successor to parties loyal to Thaksin that had won the past four Thai elections.

There are four scenarios that could play out in the general election. First, Pheu Thai wins a majority to form the next government. Second, Pheu Thai wins the most seats but falls short of mustering a majority. It would then attempt to form a coalition government with two other parties. Third, the Democrats come second after Pheu Thai but cannot manage to cobble a coalition together to form a government. Fourth, chaos settles in to create a dangerous political situation.

Let's go through each scenario one by one. The first scenario with Pheu Thai scoring a landslide victory is probable, depending on which polls we are led to believe. Some polls, for example one conducted by the Internal Security Operations Command, show a majority victory for the Pheu Thai. In this case, Khun Yingluck Shinawatra will emerge as Thailand's first woman prime minister.

The second scenario in which Pheu Thai secures the most seats is the most likely or highly realistic outcome. Polls one after another show that the Democrats can't beat Pheu Thai in the election. Pheu Thai has declared that it has severed ties with the Bhum Jai Thai Party. So in this scenario, it is more likely to form a coalition government with other parties such as Chart Thai Pattana and Chart Pattana Puea Pandin.

The third scenario is even more probable. The Democrats end up as the runner-up in the election, with 160-70 seats. But it waits coolly in the wings for Pheu Thai to try to form a coalition government. Somehow Pheu Thai does not have enough leverage to bring other parties to support it. In this case, the Democrats stage a replay of its grand coalition government.

The final scenario is the worst case in which havoc prevails on the streets of Bangkok again because Pheu Thai loses anyway even though it might capture the most MP seats.

The foreign fund managers have their reading of the market. For now, we can only watch for further political developments, which are not going to be so pretty.

-- The Nation 2011-06-13

[lannarebirth]

Negative for SET, negative for Baht, just like last time. Only this time with a "vengeance".

[geriatrickid]

It's not just Thailand but other bourses as well. Hello?? Around the world, the trend has been to bonds for the past month.

[metisdead]

Some derogatory posts directed at Thai's have been removed. Let's remember this when posting:

8) Not to post extremely negative views of Thailand or derogatory comments directed towards all Thais.

[BlackJack]

bring it on

everyones waiting

[bangkokburning]

Bonds, hah. Go ahead with the US treasuries - I dare you.

[CWMcMurray]

They forgot about scenario # 4.... (which will occur if either scenario 1 or 2 from the OP comes about)

Pheu Thai either gains a full majority or is able to make a coalition government, but certain folks can not allow that to happen... so a case is brought against Pheu Thai in the courts for doing something illegal in the election. They will of course be found guilty and the party will be disbanded and its leaders will not be allowed to hold office...

This continues as many times as needed until the other parties realize that they are not allowed to form a coalition with Pueu Thai (or what they rename them selves to be) and they then form coalition with the Dems and they Dems take back the government.

If other parties don't get the hint, maybe some of those other parties need to be found guilty of election crimes and disbanded and leader replaced... or the ultimate solution, the Army comes back out and kicks them out of government.

(please note that I am not denying that the parties involved may very well be committing election crimes, in fact it is not hard to believe that most, if not all parties have likely done something that could allow them to get into 'hot water' )

=============

I personally do not think that Pheu Thai is the best party and genuinely hope that they do not win the election, but the reality of the matter is that the only way for this to truly end is for all parties to ACCEPT the results of the election... even if that means that Pheu Thai gets the next government...

Then the Dems need to be a very very vocal opposition party and bring to light everything that the Pheu Thai are doing and campaign promises that are broken.

Bottom line, in a democracy you need to allow the people get the government the vote for even if it may not be the "best government" in your view. You can then come back a few years later and show the voters all of the "Bad things" that the party in power did and convince them to elect you to government.

So long as the powers that be continue to find ways not to let Pheu Thai form the next government (if they win) this will continue to play out over and over and over again. Better to uphold democracy and just to let them run the government for a few years.

Edited June 13, 2011 by CWMcMurray

[lannarebirth]

They forgot about scenario # 4.... (which will occur if either scenario 1 or 2 from the OP comes about)

Pheu Thai either gains a full majority or is able to make a coalition government, but certain folks can not allow that to happen... so a case is brought against Pheu Thai in the courts for doing something illegal in the ellection. They will of course be found guilty and the party will be disbanded and its leaders will not be allowed to hold office...

This continues as many times as needed until the other parties realize that they are not allowed to form a coalition with Pueu Thai (or what they remain them selves to be) and they then form coalition with the Dems and they Dems take back the government.

If other parties don't get the hint, maybe some of those other parties need to be found guilty of electron crimes and disbanded and leader replaced... or the ultimate solution, the Army comes back out and kicks them out of government.

=============

I personally do not think that Pheu Thai is the best party and genuinely hope that they do not win the election, but the reality of the matter is that the only way for this to truly end is for all parties to ACCEPT the results of the election... even if that means that Pheu Thai gets the next government...

Then the Dems need to be a very very vocal opposition party and bring to light everything that the Pheu Thai are doing and campaign promises that are broken.

Bottom line, in a democracy you need to allow the people get the government the vote for even if it may not be the "best government" in your view. You can then come back a few years later and show the voters all of the "Bad things" that the party in power did and convince them to elect you to government.

So long as the powers that be continue to find ways not to let Pheu Thai form the next government (if they win) this will continue to play out over and over and over again. Better to uphold democracy and just to let them run the government for a few years.

One has to decide what's more important over the long term. The rule of law or appeasing a group of people who don't seem to understand what democracy means. If it's the former then PTP has already breached enough laws to be disbanded should a case be pressed. If it's the latter, it's party time next year and something that looks a lot like Burma after that. It's gonna be great for the exchange rate.

Edited June 13, 2011 by lannarebirth

[anterian]

They forgot about scenario # 4.... (which will occur if either scenario 1 or 2 from the OP comes about)

Pheu Thai either gains a full majority or is able to make a coalition government, but certain folks can not allow that to happen... so a case is brought against Pheu Thai in the courts for doing something illegal in the ellection. They will of course be found guilty and the party will be disbanded and its leaders will not be allowed to hold office...

This continues as many times as needed until the other parties realize that they are not allowed to form a coalition with Pueu Thai (or what they remain them selves to be) and they then form coalition with the Dems and they Dems take back the government.

If other parties don't get the hint, maybe some of those other parties need to be found guilty of electron crimes and disbanded and leader replaced... or the ultimate solution, the Army comes back out and kicks them out of government.

=============

I personally do not think that Pheu Thai is the best party and genuinely hope that they do not win the election, but the reality of the matter is that the only way for this to truly end is for all parties to ACCEPT the results of the election... even if that means that Pheu Thai gets the next government...

Then the Dems need to be a very very vocal opposition party and bring to light everything that the Pheu Thai are doing and campaign promises that are broken.

Bottom line, in a democracy you need to allow the people get the government the vote for even if it may not be the "best government" in your view. You can then come back a few years later and show the voters all of the "Bad things" that the party in power did and convince them to elect you to government.

So long as the powers that be continue to find ways not to let Pheu Thai form the next government (if they win) this will continue to play out over and over and over again. Better to uphold democracy and just to let them run the government for a few years.

One has to decide what's more important over the long term. The rule of law or appeasing a group of people who don't seem to understand what democracy means. If it's the former then PTP has already breached enough laws to be disbanded should a case be pressed. If it's the latter, it's party time next year and something that looks a lot like Burma after that. It's gonna be great for the exchange rate.

I think McMurray is right, if the PT are as bad as many think they should be given the chance to demonstrate this, let doubts be removed one way or the other. At the worst if they are bad. Thailand suffers for 4 years, but at least democracy has not suffered as would be the case if the usual army / legal tactics were employed to remove them again. Then we really would be moving towards a burma situation.

[lannarebirth]

They forgot about scenario # 4.... (which will occur if either scenario 1 or 2 from the OP comes about)

Pheu Thai either gains a full majority or is able to make a coalition government, but certain folks can not allow that to happen... so a case is brought against Pheu Thai in the courts for doing something illegal in the ellection. They will of course be found guilty and the party will be disbanded and its leaders will not be allowed to hold office...

This continues as many times as needed until the other parties realize that they are not allowed to form a coalition with Pueu Thai (or what they remain them selves to be) and they then form coalition with the Dems and they Dems take back the government.

If other parties don't get the hint, maybe some of those other parties need to be found guilty of electron crimes and disbanded and leader replaced... or the ultimate solution, the Army comes back out and kicks them out of government.

=============

I personally do not think that Pheu Thai is the best party and genuinely hope that they do not win the election, but the reality of the matter is that the only way for this to truly end is for all parties to ACCEPT the results of the election... even if that means that Pheu Thai gets the next government...

Then the Dems need to be a very very vocal opposition party and bring to light everything that the Pheu Thai are doing and campaign promises that are broken.

Bottom line, in a democracy you need to allow the people get the government the vote for even if it may not be the "best government" in your view. You can then come back a few years later and show the voters all of the "Bad things" that the party in power did and convince them to elect you to government.

So long as the powers that be continue to find ways not to let Pheu Thai form the next government (if they win) this will continue to play out over and over and over again. Better to uphold democracy and just to let them run the government for a few years.

One has to decide what's more important over the long term. The rule of law or appeasing a group of people who don't seem to understand what democracy means. If it's the former then PTP has already breached enough laws to be disbanded should a case be pressed. If it's the latter, it's party time next year and something that looks a lot like Burma after that. It's gonna be great for the exchange rate.

I think McMurray is right, if the PT are as bad as many think they should be given the chance to demonstrate this, let doubts be removed one way or the other. At the worst if they are bad. Thailand suffers for 4 years, but at least democracy has not suffered as would be the case if the usual army / legal tactics were employed to remove them again. Then we really would be moving towards a burma situation.

I would agree with you if it werent for the fact that the last time these people were in power they set about to destroy the institutions that might have allowed them to be voted out afer 4 years. Check out my "Thaksin Remembered" post from yesterday. That's what we have to look forward too, again; a dismanteling of democratic institutions. I agree with the thaksin supporters on one thing. I don't want the military to step in again. If PTP tries to pull that shit again though, it's almost guaranteed. Ideals can't bear all the responsibility in a democracy, sometime citizens have to as well.

Edited June 13, 2011 by lannarebirth

[inquisitive]

They forgot about scenario # 4.... (which will occur if either scenario 1 or 2 from the OP comes about)

Pheu Thai either gains a full majority or is able to make a coalition government, but certain folks can not allow that to happen... so a case is brought against Pheu Thai in the courts for doing something illegal in the election. They will of course be found guilty and the party will be disbanded and its leaders will not be allowed to hold office...

This continues as many times as needed until the other parties realize that they are not allowed to form a coalition with Pueu Thai (or what they rename them selves to be) and they then form coalition with the Dems and they Dems take back the government.

If other parties don't get the hint, maybe some of those other parties need to be found guilty of election crimes and disbanded and leader replaced... or the ultimate solution, the Army comes back out and kicks them out of government.

(please note that I am not denying that the parties involved may very well be committing election crimes, in fact this is very likely because it is not hard to believe that most if not all parties have likely done sonething that could allow them to get into 'hot water' )

=============

I personally do not think that Pheu Thai is the best party and genuinely hope that they do not win the election, but the reality of the matter is that the only way for this to truly end is for all parties to ACCEPT the results of the election... even if that means that Pheu Thai gets the next government...

Then the Dems need to be a very very vocal opposition party and bring to light everything that the Pheu Thai are doing and campaign promises that are broken.

Bottom line, in a democracy you need to allow the people get the government the vote for even if it may not be the "best government" in your view. You can then come back a few years later and show the voters all of the "Bad things" that the party in power did and convince them to elect you to government.

So long as the powers that be continue to find ways not to let Pheu Thai form the next government (if they win) this will continue to play out over and over and over again. Better to uphold democracy and just to let them run the government for a few years.

I have to agree with your analysis in general. One thing that you didn't consider, though, is the possibility of a great upcoming purge staged by the Peu Thai.

The concern is that if PT wins, the elected government would NOT run the country for a few years while the opposition educates the populace, thus setting the stage for an educated vote as you describe. In the scenario you describe the next election granted could go either way, but it would give results which people more experienced with real democracy could at least respect. I think the great fear of a Pheu Thai landslide, however, is that it will lead to a full granting of pardons and amnesty, which will bring Thaksin back rich and even more belligerent and vengeful than ever.

As soon as that happens his sister will call a snap election after which her brother would take the helm. And what chance does anyone think there will be for any opposition after that? How will the electorate be informed of the broken promises, and grand-scale corruption? Remember how it was before? Remember the two reporters who told about cracks in the airport runway and were nearly destroyed by Thaksin. Yes, of course the cracks were actually there (as was later proven) and pilots refused for a while to even use the airport citing safety concerns, but I don't remember those reporters being given back their jobs or the portion of their life they lost because they told the truth. Does anyone think it will be better this next time, or do we all believe it wil be even worse?

So the formula that you've outlined would and should work in a normal democracy, but so far this isn't one, and it isn't going to become one any time soon if the proven, well, let's just say if Thaksin returns. THAT's what scares me.

I am hoping that someone can either confirm or refute my memory of the early Thaksin vengeance machine. I kind of remember that not too long after he took office one of the national television newscasters that had often not portrayed Thaksin's campaign in a favorable light became a news item himself. If I recall, didn't Thaksin buy the station and then fire the man saying he wasn't licensed to do that job? And didn't the newscaster quite rightly point out that there was no such license in Thailand? (Of course he remained unemployed anyway.)

And wasn't it Prime Minister Thaksin who first decreed that all military radio stations must ONLY get their news from the official sheets that Thaksin's cronies sent them every day? (Keep in mind that over 80% of all the radio coverage in the country at the time was exclusively through military-controlled stations). So they could no longer run news they found on various wire services, for example, but only what the government sent them. In the beginning of Thaksin administrtion they could at least pick and choose from the stories they were sent, but if I remember correctly, it was only a matter of months before the decree changed again to even take away the choice of which stories to cover. The stations were given the news and that was what they were ordered to read. So who was going to tell the other side of things to something like 80% of the population? Skywriters?

Now I admit that I could have some of the details wrong on this - Heck, I could be completely off base - so I'd like to hear if anyone else remembers this particular set of moves.

Either way, whether I remember these particular incidents correctly or not, I doubt if you could find anyone besides Nappadon who would try to claim that Thaksin did not effectively censor and muzzle all attempts to tell the other side of what was happenning. The scenario you depicted will only work if there is freedom of speech and communication, and I don't believe that anyone even harbors a hope that such freedoms could co-exist with a Thaksin reign.

[anterian]

They forgot about scenario # 4.... (which will occur if either scenario 1 or 2 from the OP comes about)

Pheu Thai either gains a full majority or is able to make a coalition government, but certain folks can not allow that to happen... so a case is brought against Pheu Thai in the courts for doing something illegal in the election. They will of course be found guilty and the party will be disbanded and its leaders will not be allowed to hold office...

This continues as many times as needed until the other parties realize that they are not allowed to form a coalition with Pueu Thai (or what they rename them selves to be) and they then form coalition with the Dems and they Dems take back the government.

If other parties don't get the hint, maybe some of those other parties need to be found guilty of election crimes and disbanded and leader replaced... or the ultimate solution, the Army comes back out and kicks them out of government.

(please note that I am not denying that the parties involved may very well be committing election crimes, in fact this is very likely because it is not hard to believe that most if not all parties have likely done sonething that could allow them to get into 'hot water' )

=============

I personally do not think that Pheu Thai is the best party and genuinely hope that they do not win the election, but the reality of the matter is that the only way for this to truly end is for all parties to ACCEPT the results of the election... even if that means that Pheu Thai gets the next government...

Then the Dems need to be a very very vocal opposition party and bring to light everything that the Pheu Thai are doing and campaign promises that are broken.

Bottom line, in a democracy you need to allow the people get the government the vote for even if it may not be the "best government" in your view. You can then come back a few years later and show the voters all of the "Bad things" that the party in power did and convince them to elect you to government.

So long as the powers that be continue to find ways not to let Pheu Thai form the next government (if they win) this will continue to play out over and over and over again. Better to uphold democracy and just to let them run the government for a few years.

I have to agree with your analysis in general. One thing that you didn't consider, though, is the possibility of a great upcoming purge staged by the Peu Thai.

The concern is that if PT wins, the elected government would NOT run the country for a few years while the opposition educates the populace, thus setting the stage for an educated vote as you describe. In the scenario you describe the next election granted could go either way, but it would give results which people more experienced with real democracy could at least respect. I think the great fear of a Pheu Thai landslide, however, is that it will lead to a full granting of pardons and amnesty, which will bring Thaksin back rich and even more belligerent and vengeful than ever.

As soon as that happens his sister will call a snap election after which her brother would take the helm. And what chance does anyone think there will be for any opposition after that? How will the electorate be informed of the broken promises, and grand-scale corruption? Remember how it was before? Remember the two reporters who told about cracks in the airport runway and were nearly destroyed by Thaksin. Yes, of course the cracks were actually there (as was later proven) and pilots refused for a while to even use the airport citing safety concerns, but I don't remember those reporters being given back their jobs or the portion of their life they lost because they told the truth. Does anyone think it will be better this next time, or do we all believe it wil be even worse?

So the formula that you've outlined would and should work in a normal democracy, but so far this isn't one, and it isn't going to become one any time soon if the proven, well, let's just say if Thaksin returns. THAT's what scares me.

I am hoping that someone can either confirm or refute my memory of the early Thaksin vengeance machine. I kind of remember that not too long after he took office one of the national television newscasters that had often not portrayed Thaksin's campaign in a favorable light became a news item himself. If I recall, didn't Thaksin buy the station and then fire the man saying he wasn't licensed to do that job? And didn't the newscaster quite rightly point out that there was no such license in Thailand? (Of course he remained unemployed anyway.)

And wasn't it Prime Minister Thaksin who first decreed that all military radio stations must ONLY get their news from the official sheets that Thaksin's cronies sent them every day? (Keep in mind that over 80% of all the radio coverage in the country at the time was exclusively through military-controlled stations). So they could no longer run news they found on various wire services, for example, but only what the government sent them. In the beginning of Thaksin administrtion they could at least pick and choose from the stories they were sent, but if I remember correctly, it was only a matter of months before the decree changed again to even take away the choice of which stories to cover. The stations were given the news and that was what they were ordered to read. So who was going to tell the other side of things to something like 80% of the population? Skywriters?

Now I admit that I could have some of the details wrong on this - Heck, I could be completely off base - so I'd like to hear if anyone else remembers this particular set of moves.

Either way, whether I remember these particular incidents correctly or not, I doubt if you could find anyone besides Nappadon who would try to claim that Thaksin did not effectively censor and muzzle all attempts to tell the other side of what was happenning. The scenario you depicted will only work if there is freedom of speech and communication, and I don't believe that anyone even harbors a hope that such freedoms could co-exist with a Thaksin reign.

Your memory is correct, I could even add more details, Thaksin is a very vengeful and ruthless man, just like most Thais I have met higher than a village boss

However since then times have moved on If nothing else Thaksin has made the Thai people much more politically aware, Twitter, Facebook, did not exist then, mobile phone usage has quadrupled, Internet users are more savvy at finding ways around censorship. I don't think Thaksin could get away with acting as he did in the past.

[thaikahuna]

Negative for SET, negative for Baht, just like last time. Only this time with a "vengeance".

And if we think the exchange rate bites now.....just wait and see.