Thailand's Economy May Be Growing Too Fast

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ECONOMY
Economy may be growing too fast
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's economy is rapidly gaining momentum on loose monetary and fiscal policies, but it may be growing too quickly for its own good, according to Nomura Research.

Thai authorities have insisted that they remain conscious of not compromising fiscal sustainability. The medium-term fiscal plan, which incorporates large-scale infrastructure spending, is to keep public debt below 50 per cent of gross domestic product, allowing a 10-percentage-point buffer against external shocks given the legal limit of 60 per cent of GDP. Authorities envisage a balanced budget by 2017, which implies that short-term measures that were criticised as populist are likely to be allowed to expire.

Nomura maintains its economic growth forecast for Thailand - 4.5 per cent versus 6.4 per cent last year - but is biased towards an upward revision. At this level, Thailand will outperform all countries in Southeast Asia except Indonesia, which is expected to expand by 6.1 per cent this year.

Given the robust outlook, Nomura is comfortable with its forecast that the Bank of Thailand will keep its policy rate unchanged through 2013.

This assumed that inflation would not breach the target. While inflation is still low, domestic demand is very strong.

"In our view, if the BOT had it its way, it would hike policy rates in the second half, but it faces strong political pressure to cut the policy rate further in a bid to stem the baht appreciation."

On political risk, Nomura said discussion of the amnesty bill is ongoing, while the referendum on the constitutional amendment may be delayed, suggesting Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is taking a more a practical approach and not pushing the agenda too hard. Overall, the political environment remains calm, but there are potential flashpoints.


-- The Nation 2013-03-08

[siampolee]

Cynical I may be, however this current situation has many of the hallmarks of the state of affairs leading up to the 1997 financial debacle.

Political influence on the Central Bank and the B.O.T. Vast sums of money flowing into the Thai banking system from abroad due to the current high interest rates tht are prevailing here in Thailand, Enormous construction projects being approved by parliament to pay back the assorted sponsors of political parties and ministers.

Banking system has admitted to a couple of troubled banks that are requiring help and the full account for the rice pledging scam scheme has yet to be presented, indeed a scary scenario.

Remember that right up until the state coffers funds were all but depleted and the country was technically bankrupt too that in 1997 those in power continued on insisting everything was coming up roses in the garden.

The trouble was though those roses were not bearing blooms but as we very soon found out those roses were indeed a thorny bunch which did much harm to Thailand and its peoples. Debts from that time were moved around but they're still there today and payments are still being made today..

..

[Thai at Heart]

Cynical I may be, however this current situation has many of the hallmarks of the state of affairs leading up to the 1997 financial debacle.

Political influence on the Central Bank and the B.O.T. Vast sums of money flowing into the Thai banking system from abroad due to the current high interest rates tht are prevailing here in Thailand, Enormous construction projects being approved by parliament to pay back the assorted sponsors of political parties and ministers.

Banking system has admitted to a couple of troubled banks that are requiring help and the full account for the rice pledging scam scheme has yet to be presented, indeed a scary scenario.

Remember that right up until the state coffers funds were all but depleted and the country was technically bankrupt too that in 1997 those in power continued on insisting everything was coming up roses in the garden.

The trouble was though those roses were not bearing blooms but as we very soon found out those roses were indeed a thorny bunch which did much harm to Thailand and its peoples. Debts from that time were moved around but they're still there today and payments are still being made today..

..

1997 was a crisis of wrong lending of forex to exploit an interest differential.

This is not the same situation as 1997

[siampolee]

Thai at heart.

It's the same scams in new clothing self enrichment by the select few businessmen and politicians.

Try reading , ''Money, Politics, Globalisation, and Crisis ( The Case of Thailand) by John Laird.

Many of those skeletons have names that are still currently involved in the current political and financial scenario. It was indeed an interesting time to be here and as I said there are indeed many players in todays game as there were in the first game too..

[BlackJack]

invest in it and bail before the

[jamhar]

Dont worry gang,

the strength of the baht will slow things down in a bit.

Then you'll be complaining about the slow growth

Fine tuning an economy is a tough one

esp with all the corruption,

and natural disasters always around the corner.

Strap in and hold on tight

its going to be a wild one.

[Morgo]

Thailand's economy is expected to achieve a growth of between 5.2% and 5.5% this year.

It must be galling to the natural ruling class of the yellow colour, to realise that those poor uneducated rabble from Isaan, can also run an economy.

[siampolee]

Fine words Morgo,

However there aren't many Isaan grass roots activists in this current maladministration, in fact a large number of those grass roots Isan pawns are in custody due to the inability or the unwillingness of their leaders to assist their cause and get them released from gaol.

There are however lots of the old gang in power and they ail have vast experience in the mismanagement of public money and assorted financial funneling techniques so as to ensure that their commissions are paid as their unusual wealth clearly shows.

[waza]

"BANGKOK: -- Thailand's economy is rapidly gaining momentum on loose monetary and fiscal policies, but it may be growing too quickly for its own good, according to Nomura Research."

Well thanks to inept finacial management by the politician that overide sound economics the Thai economy is overheating.

"The medium-term fiscal plan, which incorporates large-scale infrastructure spending, is to keep public debt below 50 per cent of gross domestic product, allowing a 10-percentage-point buffer against external shocks given the legal limit of 60 per cent of GDP."

This massive funding of infrastructure through debt will see Thailands future GDP disappear down a black hole or in a pile of rice.

As said " Banking system has admitted to a couple of troubled banks that are requiring help and the full account for the rice pledging scam scheme has yet to be presented, indeed a scary scenario."

Which may be closely followed by the, The (BAAC) which may have to turn to fellow state bank, the (GSB), to raise funds to finance the rice pledging scheme.

[davejones]

Thailand's economy is expected to achieve a growth of between 5.2% and 5.5% this year.

It must be galling to the natural ruling class of the yellow colour, to realise that those poor uneducated rabble from Isaan, can also run an economy.

The economy is growing despite the reds shirts being in power, not because the red shirts are in power. Governments don't have too much influence on the economy. If is always boom and bust cycles whoever is in power.

[dcutman]

Thailand's economy is expected to achieve a growth of between 5.2% and 5.5% this year.

It must be galling to the natural ruling class of the yellow colour, to realise that those poor uneducated rabble from Isaan, can also run an economy.

The economy is growing despite the reds shirts being in power, not because the red shirts are in power. Governments don't have too much influence on the economy. If is always boom and bust cycles whoever is in power.

Well it does help when a Govt adopts loose monetary and fiscal policies, and promotes borrowing by people who cannot afford to do so.

[Thai at Heart]

Thai at heart.

It's the same scams in new clothing self enrichment by the select few businessmen and politicians.

Try reading , ''Money, Politics, Globalisation, and Crisis ( The Case of Thailand) by John Laird.

Many of those skeletons have names that are still currently involved in the current political and financial scenario. It was indeed an interesting time to be here and as I said there are indeed many players in todays game as there were in the first game too..

Scams and corruption are one thing.

Will Thailand encounter economic ruin as on 1997 is the question. With the Us, Eu, and uk in the poop? Not anytime soon.

[rubl]

What's this? Negative waves? I have it from our local economical genius and fellow TV member that all is peachy rosy, GDP and economy booming, foreigners flocking to beg to be allowed to invest here, etc., etc. Growing too fast? Build for an uncertain future? Nonsense, multi million Baht apartments the size of doghouses sell as if dogs are going to make it in Bangkok. Surely this is healthy, greedy capitalism which might, only might, see a minor correction every once in a while

[h90]

Thailand's economy is expected to achieve a growth of between 5.2% and 5.5% this year.

It must be galling to the natural ruling class of the yellow colour, to realise that those poor uneducated rabble from Isaan, can also run an economy.

Yingluck and cronies are poor and from Isaan??????????

[Locationthailand]

Implies the short term measures by Yingluck are working? And balanced budget by 2017? Utter BS. And the ways the populace is impressed by the cost of living skyrocketing faster than GDP, will Thailand push this puppet Govt out? Too many variables and a continuing growing 'long term' economy predication, sounds like they have all consulted the accuracies of "Dr Future" again.

[01322521959]

Cynical I may be, however this current situation has many of the hallmarks of the state of affairs leading up to the 1997 financial debacle.

Political influence on the Central Bank and the B.O.T. Vast sums of money flowing into the Thai banking system from abroad due to the current high interest rates tht are prevailing here in Thailand, Enormous construction projects being approved by parliament to pay back the assorted sponsors of political parties and ministers.

Banking system has admitted to a couple of troubled banks that are requiring help and the full account for the rice pledging scam scheme has yet to be presented, indeed a scary scenario.

Remember that right up until the state coffers funds were all but depleted and the country was technically bankrupt too that in 1997 those in power continued on insisting everything was coming up roses in the garden.

The trouble was though those roses were not bearing blooms but as we very soon found out those roses were indeed a thorny bunch which did much harm to Thailand and its peoples. Debts from that time were moved around but they're still there today and payments are still being made today..

..

1997 was a crisis of wrong lending of forex to exploit an interest differential.

This is not the same situation as 1997

When the UK pound is falling through the floor, couldn't you have allowed the dream to have lasted a little longer?

[MaxLee]

I think what they meant was Bangkok is growing too fast

[rubl]

With billions of dollars flowing in being seen as part of GDP I can only wonder when the bubble will burst again.

Behind BAY H.O. along RamaIII they have (almost) cleared the Sahariya rusty towers which were a real eyesore since 1997

[ratcatcher]

Thailand's economy is expected to achieve a growth of between 5.2% and 5.5% this year.

It must be galling to the natural ruling class of the yellow colour, to realise that those poor uneducated rabble from Isaan, can also run an economy.

OR

"..................the poor uneducated rabble from Isaan can also run an economy into the ground.

Actually it is more like the 'educated' rabble in government who are ruining running the economy.