Marc Faber on How the Economic Chess Game Might End

[jko]

Not a very encouraging 9.5 minutes interview with Marc Faber, the Swiss financial 'guru' who lives in Chiang Mai

"His thoughts on how it ends? Pain. And lots of it. Faber thinks it ends one of two ways. Financial collapse or through war"

Link here

[Lancelot]

Nothing new, Mr. Faber the eternal pessimist...

[midas]

Nothing new, Mr. Faber the eternal pessimist...

well we have been waiting now for five years for a “ recovery “and for the debts to even start to be paid off

[Naam]

Nothing new, Mr. Faber the eternal pessimist...

well we have been waiting now for five years for a “ recovery “and for the debts to even start to be paid off

anybody who does not realise that there was indeed a recovery, based on where we stood 4½ years ago, is blind. of course... how that recovery was achieved is a different animal.

[midas]

Nothing new, Mr. Faber the eternal pessimist...

well we have been waiting now for five years for a “ recovery “and for the debts to even start to be paid off

anybody who does not realise that there was indeed a recovery, based on where we stood 4½ years ago, is blind. of course... how that recovery was achieved is a different animal.

Okay, I'll put on my dark glasses and get a white cane because I don't call swapping one thing for something even worse a recovery?

The recession is over but the depression has just begun

The issue was and still is overconsumption i.e. levels of consumption supported only by increase in debt levels and not by future earnings. This is the core of our problem – debt.

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/the-recession-is-over-but-the-depression-has-just-begun.html

Edited July 30, 2013 by midas

[Naam]

to each his own.

[Gomyway]

Since America tomorrow will setup the parameters for their calculation of gdp new what means that their debt will adjusted to lower values everything MUST be allright...

[yoshiwara]

Since America tomorrow will setup the parameters for their calculation of gdp new what means that their debt will adjusted to lower values everything MUST be allright...

No doubt you have spent hours studying how GDP stats are calculated.

[temo1051]

I agree with Marc that the low interest rates are creating an inflationary bubble.

When I started my factory here in Thailand 10 years ago all my employee's came to work riding bicycles. As my factory grew and my employees reaped the benefit of overtime the bicycles were upgraded to motor bikes. As we continued to grow bus service was provided to attract employees from outside areas. With the minimum wage hikes over the past 2 years the employees with motorbikes have converted to cars causing me to provide an additional car park area at my factory. Now my employees are feeling the pinch of inflation and the increase in food cost so they are requesting I provide them with lunch.

If the inflation spiral continues I will need to relocate my factory to another ASEAN nation to be competitive with the Chinese who undercut my pricing.

Unfortunately the Thai government and my employees don't understand this. Maybe if they lose their jobs it will be a lessoned learned

[manarak]

Nothing new, Mr. Faber the eternal pessimist...

well we have been waiting now for five years for a “ recovery “and for the debts to even start to be paid off

anybody who does not realise that there was indeed a recovery, based on where we stood 4½ years ago, is blind. of course... how that recovery was achieved is a different animal.

Faber does not mention the most probable scenario:

a slow economic meltdown.

after every crisis, there are times when everything seems to recover and money is made more easily.

But the damage done by the crisis remains.

ever since the first oil crisis, things never reversed to how they were before. after the recovery, came the eighties and then the next crisis... For most citizens of western countries it is a downward spiral.

[yoshiwara]

I agree with Marc that the low interest rates are creating an inflationary bubble.

When I started my factory here in Thailand 10 years ago all my employee's came to work riding bicycles. As my factory grew and my employees reaped the benefit of overtime the bicycles were upgraded to motor bikes. As we continued to grow bus service was provided to attract employees from outside areas. With the minimum wage hikes over the past 2 years the employees with motorbikes have converted to cars causing me to provide an additional car park area at my factory. Now my employees are feeling the pinch of inflation and the increase in food cost so they are requesting I provide them with lunch.

If the inflation spiral continues I will need to relocate my factory to another ASEAN nation to be competitive with the Chinese who undercut my pricing.

Unfortunately the Thai government and my employees don't understand this. Maybe if they lose their jobs it will be a lessoned learned

What is stopping you planning a move now?

[Gomyway]

Since America tomorrow will setup the parameters for their calculation of gdp new what means that their debt will adjusted to lower values everything MUST be allright...

No doubt you have spent hours studying how GDP stats are calculated.

Nice how my writings make you wake up, but please let me tell you for this I even don't need a calculator...

[ThaiSETtrader]

When interest rates rise in the US and in EU countries we should also see some further fund outflows from the SET.

[kblaze]

I agree with Marc that the low interest rates are creating an inflationary bubble.

When I started my factory here in Thailand 10 years ago all my employee's came to work riding bicycles. As my factory grew and my employees reaped the benefit of overtime the bicycles were upgraded to motor bikes. As we continued to grow bus service was provided to attract employees from outside areas. With the minimum wage hikes over the past 2 years the employees with motorbikes have converted to cars causing me to provide an additional car park area at my factory. Now my employees are feeling the pinch of inflation and the increase in food cost so they are requesting I provide them with lunch.

If the inflation spiral continues I will need to relocate my factory to another ASEAN nation to be competitive with the Chinese who undercut my pricing.

Unfortunately the Thai government and my employees don't understand this. Maybe if they lose their jobs it will be a lessoned learned

Inflation in Thailand is mild and in fact, much lower than other countries. Your employees simply did what is the norm here, used their salaries to acquire loans from the bank to buy things (motorcycles, cars) that they can't afford.

Don't give them free lunches thats the PT govts job.

Edited July 31, 2013 by kblaze

[yoshiwara]

Since America tomorrow will setup the parameters for their calculation of gdp new what means that their debt will adjusted to lower values everything MUST be allright...

No doubt you have spent hours studying how GDP stats are calculated.

Nice how my writings make you wake up, but please let me tell you for this I even don't need a calculator...

Just straight out of your head.

[yoshiwara]

When interest rates rise in the US and in EU countries we should also see some further fund outflows from the SET.

That depends on other variables in the mix. plus also one's time horizon for investments in the SET.

[copa8]

I agree with Marc that the low interest rates are creating an inflationary bubble.

When I started my factory here in Thailand 10 years ago all my employee's came to work riding bicycles. As my factory grew and my employees reaped the benefit of overtime the bicycles were upgraded to motor bikes. As we continued to grow bus service was provided to attract employees from outside areas. With the minimum wage hikes over the past 2 years the employees with motorbikes have converted to cars causing me to provide an additional car park area at my factory. Now my employees are feeling the pinch of inflation and the increase in food cost so they are requesting I provide them with lunch.

If the inflation spiral continues I will need to relocate my factory to another ASEAN nation to be competitive with the Chinese who undercut my pricing.

Unfortunately the Thai government and my employees don't understand this. Maybe if they lose their jobs it will be a lessoned learned

Can always relocate to cheapest...any country in Africa.

[CaptHaddock]

Faber's market predictions perform about the same as other market gurus, which is to say, not as good as a coin toss:

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/

Why anyone would pay any attention to screamers like this is beyond me.

Edited August 17, 2013 by CaptHaddock