Recent bombs unlikely to have serious impact on consumer confidence, Thai survey finds

[webfact]

SURVEY
Recent bombs unlikely to have serious impact on consumer confidence, survey finds
Petchanet Pratruangkrai

BANGKOK: -- Consumer confidence will not be seriously dented from the Sunday's double explosions in Bangkok's shopping district if there are no similar incidents or violence in the future, a new survey has found.

"The recent bombing of the skybridge in the centre of the capital city has also signalled political instability and caused worry among Thai and foreign tourists," said Thanavath Phonvichai, director to the UTCC's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre.

He was referring to the bombing at the Siam Paragon shopping mall.

Thanavath said the bombing would result in consumers and travellers being more cautious in their daily travels, and would affect retailers around the Siam Paragon because people would avoid visiting there.

Despite the lower oil price, Thai consumer confidence dipped last month due to worries over the low price of farm crops, the high cost of living, the slow recovery of the economy and concerns over political instability, according to the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisation (Fetco)'s February survey.

Meanwhile, the three-month capital market confidence index climbed 30.95 per cent to 115.59 points in February, pointing to improved confidence in foreign investors, according to the survey.

Based on the nationwide survey of 2,239 people, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) found that the consumer confidence index dropped from 81.1 points in December to 80.4 points last month.

It found that other indexes related to consumer confidence, including employment opportunities, future income, confidence in spending money and investing, and the political situation were also down last month as no positive factors were driving confidence, despite the lower financial burden due to the lower oil price.

"Thai consumers have greater concern over their futures because of the remaining low price of farm crops and the slowly expanding domestic economy," said Thanavath Phonvichai, director to the UTCC's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre.

The centre foresees that the economy will only be affected in the short run from this incident, and it should grow at the projected 3.5-4 per cent this year.

The projection is based on the assumption of oil being US$60 (Bt1,950) per barrel globally, and an average exchange rate of Bt32.5-33 against the US dollar.

Based on a survey of 400 businesses taken on Monday and Tuesday, it is expected that the bombing will result in the tourism and retail industries and the country's image taking a hit in the short term, with businesses impacted by the higher cost of security and employees having to return home earlier than normal.

Fetco chairman Voravan Tarapoom said "confidence has improved in all groups of investors". The foreign investor confidence index has seen the highest increase, by 74.99 per cent, to 116.67 points. The confidence index of local institutional investors jumped 44.44 per cent to 108.33 points, while that of investors from securities companies edged up 16.67 per cent to 140.00.

Based on the survey, the highest impact on the Thai capital market in future could come from external situations involving other countries, the domestic economy, local economic policies and the local political situation.

All investors, excluding local institutional investors, agreed on property and construction stocks as the most attractive for investment, while local institutional investors saw communications stocks as the most attractive.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Recent-bombs-unlikely-to-have-serious-impact-on-co-30253506.html


-- The Nation 2015-02-06

[NeverSure]

Something else they pulled out of their a hats.

[stickyrice2000]

No impact at all but I won't go there.

[bassman]

"Recent bombs unlikely to have serious impact on consumer confidence, survey finds"

However, continued headlines that refer to these two large firecrackers might just impact consumer confidence. Any impact on tourism or the economy are self inflicted and I doubt much of a result to the actual incident. Until they catch the bombers and solve the case all else is speculation.

[wabothai]

How the f... do you know? survey,..........survey......> you do not know, but you think you know, jeezzz.....

[rickirs]

"The recent bombing of the skybridge in the centre of the capital city has also signalled political instability and caused worry among Thai and foreign tourists,"

While any bombing might be the Junta's wet dream, it is a nightmare for the business sector NO MATTER THE CAUSE OR REASON.

The Junta has actually created an insecure environment when it refused to lift martial law, blatantly exercised its absolute power against the sovereignty of the Thai people, made a mockery of democracy with its North Korean-style reforms, and showed a complete inability to make critical economic decisions for the GOOD OF THE NATION. While the military reacts with almost academic disinterest with continuous violence in South Thailand, it's ready to instantly war with individuals and factions in the Central and North given the slightest provocation.

So yes, the bombs are unlikely to have a serious impact on consumer confidence. But only because the Junta has already done a lot of real damage to consumer confidence. In another two months the Junta will be wishing for a spate of bomb attacks so it can try to divert the public's attention to its own leadership failures.