2015 GDP revised down to 3.7 per cent

[Thaivisa News]

Bangkok: – The Fiscal Policy Office has lowered the growth rate of this year’s GDP from 3.9 per cent to 3.7 per cent due to weak demands for exports and slow recovery of the world economy.

FPO director general Krisda Chinavicharana said the country’s economic growth projection should be between 3.2 per cent and 4.2 per cent.

The exports growth has been revised down to 0.2 per cent from 1.4 per cent.

Uncertainty on the world economic recovery, the slowdown of the Chinese economy and weak demands are three key factors impacting on the Thai economy, Krisda said.

The GDP projection has factored in parameters like the economic growth rates of 15 key trading partners, the exchange rate at 33.1 baht to a dollar, the Dubai oil price at US$ 60 per barrel and the policy rate at 1.75 per cent.

The economic outlook remains upbeat due to factors like the upward trend of tourist arrivals at 29.4 million visitors for this year and the increased public spending by the government and state enterprises.

Tourism revenues and public spending are expected to boost this year’s economic performance. Last year the economy grew only at 0.7 per cent.

The investor’s confidence should improve as the government has already had clear plans for public projects such as transportation infrastructure and water management.

Domestic consumption and private-sector investment should steadily improve because non-agricultural earnings remain strong.

This year’s first quarter see the economic growth at 3.2 per cent.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Pridiyathorn Devakula said the Thai economic slowdown might last up to 2 years.

He said the slowdown is unavoidable as the government has been implementing drastic plans for long-term improvements.

Rectifying measures in progress include the suppression of underground economy which is estimated to amount to one-fifth of the GDP and the restructuring of Thai exports designed to replace products which lost competitiveness due to the rise in minimum wage.

[anon467848]

The GDP projection has factored in parameters like the economic growth rates of 15 key trading partners, the exchange rate at 33.1 baht to a dollar, the Dubai oil price at US$ 60 per barrel and the policy rate at 1.75 per cent.

Why on earth is the FPO director general talking about the price of Dubai oil..... Does Thaksin have his own refinery over there..l

[Srikcir]

"The Fiscal Policy Office has lowered the growth rate of this year’s GDP from 3.9 per cent to 3.7 per cent"

On the other hand,

"Most economists believe that Thailand’s economic growth rate for this year will not exceed 3 percent against the Finance Ministry’s projection of 3.9 percent, according to Bangkok Poll." (2015-04-26)

Maybe Prayut should use Article 44 to reign in these rogue economists who do not follow the government's lead on economic projections, even though the government itself is unable to stay with any of its projections for more than a week! Perhaps the Fiscal Policy Office should be renamed "The Farcial Policy Office."