Democrats Extend Congress Lead as Trump Approval Drops

Democrats are heading into the final phase of the 2026 midterm elections with their largest lead yet in the race for control of Congress, while President Donald Trump’s approval rating sits near its lowest point for his second term, according to new NBC News polling averages.

The averages show Democrats ahead by 9 percentage points on whether Americans prefer a Democratic- or Republican-controlled Congress. After adjusting results to a likely voter basis, the congressional measure stands at 52% for Democrats versus 43% for Republicans.

NBC News said the figures reflect a deterioration in the political environment for Republicans over time. After Trump returned to office last year, the parties were effectively tied in surveys. Over subsequent months, independents increasingly moved towards a preference for a Democratic-controlled Congress, a shift NBC News linked to growing dissatisfaction with Trump and, in particular, his economic policies.

Congressional Average and Polling Method

The congressional average measures national preferences for Congress before individual race dynamics are taken into account. NBC News said the metric provides a broad read on survey trends and helps control for outlier results.

NBC News released the averages now because, with a steady flow of polls in the run-up to an election, averages can help track changes and examine how Republicans, Democrats and independents view Trump and the contest for Congress.

The polling averages are weighted calculations of publicly available polls that meet methodological and transparency standards. NBC News said it has compiled the series using polls dating back to the start of the second Trump administration.

Trump Approval Falls

With about a month to go before the midterms, Trump’s approval rating in the NBC News polling average has fallen to 39%, while 59% disapprove of how he is handling the job.

At the start of his term, Trump’s approval stood at 50% in the same average, NBC News said. It also reported limited movement among partisans in the congressional race, with majorities of both Republicans and Democrats remaining aligned with their parties.

Instead, NBC News attributed much of the shift in Congress preferences to independents. Early in Trump’s second term, independents preferred Democrats by about 6 points. The gap then widened gradually during the first half of last year, before accelerating in late 2025 and early 2026. In the spring, independents began to prefer Democrats by about 20 points.

NBC News linked that change to growing public frustration with Trump’s handling of the economy, the war in Iran and the killings of two Americans by federal immigration officers.

The Republican Party has not fully regained ground with independents since then. In the latest average, Democrats hold a 16-point lead among independents in the race for Congress.

NBC News noted that survey responses do not automatically translate into election outcomes, but said the strength among political independents is one of several factors supporting Democrats’ position as the vote approaches.

Limits as Election Day Nears

Even with the polling lead, Democrats are not assured of electoral success. Republicans are seeking ways to energise the coalition that brought Trump to the White House two years ago, and they aim to narrow the gap before Election Day, which is more than a month away.

The article also points to the electoral battleground: many of the key House and Senate contests are in districts and states Trump won in 2024, often by double-digit margins.

For Trump, NBC News said the biggest drag in approval comes from movement among independents and, to a lesser extent, Republicans. His approval among Republicans has fluctuated in the mid-to-high 80s during the first six months of his second term, but is now at 79% in the NBC News average.

Independents’ approval has fallen further, to 26% in the NBC News average.

Voters have also become less approving of Trump’s handling of two signature issues: the economy and border security and immigration. In an NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey, 40% of American adults approved of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living in April 2025, while 60% disapproved. By this April’s poll, approval had dropped to 32% and disapproval rose to 68%.

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25 September 2026