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20 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

However if you actually read the CDC report, it does not say what the Gateway Pundit claims.

 

It says that only 6% of the people who died of Covid-19 had no other underlying condition. That's radically different from saying that the other 94% did not die of Covid-19.

 

The Gateway Pundit takes the CDC's actual findings and distorts them into something completely different.

It's not just underlying conditions: it's comorbidity. Underlying conditions are only one type of comorbidity. Most of the comorbidity in Covid deaths are from Pneumonia... which is DIRECTLY CAUSED by Covid 19.

People absolutely have no idea what these stats means.

Let's say someone has a car crash, then bleeds out to death. The death certificate will list something like: cardiac arrest, caused by external hemorrhage, caused by trauma from car crash. Makes sense, right?

People arguing that only 6% have died from Covid are basically arguing that this person shouldn't be listed as a victim of a car crash because that's the cardiac arrest that killed him.

It's just utterly stupid.

1 hour ago, law ling said:

Good, but positive results often don't show until 10-12 days after contact.

Where did you get this number?

Considering mean incubation time is 5 days and that PCR tests are sensitive enough to even detect before the onset of symptoms, 10 to 12 days before testing positive is actually a rare occurrence.

This is the reason why Taiwan is now offering a shorter 7-day quarantine option with a test after 5 days, because the very large majority of infected people will test positive within that timeframe.

https://qz.com/1869772/taiwan-shortens-coronavirus-quarantine-for-business-travellers/

1 hour ago, smedly said:

good idea - start testing when the chance of actually finding anyone infected are slim, they have either died of viral pneumonia or recovered

 

How about publishing Thailands deaths over the last 5 months - likely unrecorded or known let alone the diagnosis 

 

and for those that want to criticize my post - produce the figures first 

There you go.

Over the previous years there's been a variability of about 7,000 deaths in the first half of the year.

So unless the Covid death toll starts to be around 5,000 to 10,000 people you won't really see any significant differences. Such an amount of death would mean about 200K infected, with maybe 50-60K with noticeable symptoms. That's something that would be pretty difficult to swipe under the rug no?

Oh, and about hiding this within the pneumonia case, they also addressed the issue:

Now you can always say they're fudging the numbers. And there's no way to prove they don't.
But every day that passes where hospitals remain quiet, where no nurse or doctor leak something online is another nail in the coffin of these conspiracy theories.

3 hours ago, dinsdale said:

This should have been done a lot earlier. It will be interesting to see what happens numbers wise when (if) this starts. Countries which have broadened their testing are finding more asymptomatic/presymptomatic people. Look at the US which really started testing on a mass scale and the numbers went up. Now the curve is dipping. 

This hasn't been done earlier because it can only save you tests if you have a very small percentage of positive cases.

Imagine 2 groups of 100 people each: Group 1 has 1 infected (1%), Group 2 has 15 infected (15%)

If you pool 10 tests together, Group 1 will have 9 come back negative, 1 positive, then the 10 people of this group will be tested individually. It will have taken 20 tests to check everyone.

If you do the same with Group 2, chances are that most of these groups will have at least one infected in them. So you'll have to retest almost everyone individually and will have saved a marginal number of tests while wasting time with the first round.

26 minutes ago, keith101 said:

If these single figures are correct then why are they still banning inter provincial travel just doesn't make sense to me .

They're "correct" in the sense that it's the number of people they've found.

But I think they're being realistic in assuming that they are missing a significant percentage considering the large percentage of asymptomatic and mild cases.

In other words: they know that the current measure in places were effective at reducing the transmission rate, but they're not certain by how much and remain cautious.

25 minutes ago, bamboozled said:

Who gets tested? How is it determined who gets the test? People that have some sort of symptom and go to a hospital or doctor about it?

THe official criteria are:

1. Those who have travelled to any foreign country and show symptoms of respiratory distress, including coughing, runny nose, sore throat, difficulty in breathing and temperature over 37.3℃
2. Patients in medical facilities who show symptoms of respiratory distress and have temperature over 37.5 degrees Celsius, as well as fitting either one of the following criteria: Having a career that involves public contact, having been to crowded areas, used to be in contact with a Covid-19 patient. All patients in medical facilities who have pneumonia will also get a free Covid-19 test.
3. Medical staff who have contact history with a Covid-19 patient and show symptoms of respiratory distress as well as have temperature over 37.5C
4. Those involved in cluster group cases, be they at least three medical staff or five people who are from the same place, and show symptoms of respiratory infection but test negative for any type of flu.

23 minutes ago, Farmerkev said:

According to worldometer yesterday 71860 tests carried out, exactly the same as today, however, just over 20000 total tests 2 days ago. Please pull the right leg my left ones about 12 inches longer now

Wow, you're mixing up everything.

1. Worldometer isn't a primary source. It's a website aggregating data mostly coming from news. So the 71,860 was updated yesterday because that's what was announced by a Thai official. There was no announcement on this number today so it remains the same on worldometer. It doesn't mean there was 0 tests.
2. Nobody ever said they did 20,000 tests 2 days ago. What was said was "there's a capacity of 20,000 tests". This is probably the overall capacity of the country in terms of Lab machines. However they're still VERY far from that (same person mentioned current rate of about 2,000 daily tests) most probably because not only you need the machines, but you need the lab people to actually be trained to handle infectious diseases, the lab to be properly sealed and the whole logistics of bringing in and reporting tests to be managed.

Same boat.

Did the report on 25th, still pending. In the past it was usually approved within 24h.

I expect that they are a lot busier than usually all the while maybe having some staff work from home, with the approval of 90 days being at the bottom of their list.

I'm not sweating it. All that matters is that the reporting was done on time.

This is a pic of the 'Phoenix' boat that capsized. It matches with the picture of it underwater that was published earlier.

14 minutes ago, Get Real said:

One would actually assume that you know what a poll is. I would regard a poll with 300 foreigners participating as a poll with a big possibility to be percentually right. Maybe it would differ 3-5% up or down if they would have made it on 3000 foreigners. however, the number is far to high anyway. 

Appearently we can assume that most of the worlds deranged people are travelling to Thailand.

The problem isn't with the number of participants. 300 is actually not too bad. The problem is about the representativity of that sample.

From what I gather, the poll was done among readers of this 'Dan about Thailand' blog. It's very unlikely that this blog has a readership representative of foreigners in Thailand.

A much better poll would be people randomly picked at the airport (although it should be adjusted to not skew the result towards tourists who come for only a week or two).

3 hours ago, Jonmarleesco said:

Ah, there is the crux of the matter.

 

WHO safe limit <25. Thai safe limit <50. Current levels, in the three-figure range. And forget China; there are international monitors that dispute the Thai interpretation.

Wrong.

You're comparing numbers that are using different units. See my explanation here: 

3 hours ago, salween said:

Amazing we have to rely on China to get the truth out. Thainess in a nutshell, as real-time data's available for all--journalists too should they choose to look beyond what the government puts out.  Have not seen PM2.5 below 125 in BKK since I started looking last week--and anything above 25 is supposed to be unhealthy, should one accept WHO standards?

You're mistaking AQI (Index reported by the chinese website) with Particle Density (in µg/m3) as used by the WHO.

See here: http://aqicn.org/faq/2013-09-09/revised-pm25-aqi-breakpoints/

WHO Guidelines are : PM2.5: 25 µg/m3 24-hour mean.

Which corresponds to an AQI index of about 70 (which is what we usually get in Bangkok)

More about AQI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_quality_index

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The score for each pollutant is non-linear, as is the final AQI score. Thus an AQI of 300 does not mean twice the pollution of AQI at 150, nor does it mean the air is twice as harmful. The concentration of a pollutant when its IAQI is 100 does not equal twice its concentration when its IAQI is 50, nor does it mean the pollutant is twice as harmful.

The WHO guideline is basically a point below which we're pretty sure that no one has ever been affected. It doesn't mean that going above by a little bit will irremediably makes you sick. 

I follow Bangkok AQI for a while already and these past few week have been unusually bad, but there's always a peak in January. Bangkok is usually doing quite decently, oscillating between good and moderate, which is quite okay considering it's a huge metropolis in a developping country,

Finally, we're not 'relying on China to get the truth'. Just scroll down on the AQICN page:

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Air Quality Data provided by the Division of Air Quality Data, Air Quality and Noise Management Bureau, Pollution Control Department. (aqmthai.com)

It just so happens that the Chinese website was one of the first one to open itself to data feeds while presenting it in an intelligible way (the thai AQM website still uses flash) so it became the 'de facto' aggregator.

5 hours ago, Katipo said:

You can clearly see from the first before and after photo that the pattern is completely different and I would say lacking the quality and depth of detail of the original. Obviously they didn't study the original as well as they said, or the current bunch of craftsmen aren't as skilled as those in the past. A shame.

Not so sure about that. The before/after photos in the article are pretty tiny and don't even seem to be from the same spot.

I've dug up old pics of mine and if you compare the last pic of this article with the one I attached, you'll see that it mostly seem they've cleaned up the white grouting (not sure of the term). Patterns, colors, level of detail seem all the same to me.

@oldgent , you sound like a broken clock in this thread, always asking the same questions even though they've been answered earlier.

Let me try to answer all in one place to make it easier (note, quotes aren't your exact words, I'm paraphrasing)

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Have they no consideration for the family?

I'm sure they have, and they probably know that it's a really difficult situation for those families. But do you think it is worth risking lives to cater for people's feelings?

Quote

But then what about the Firefigthers in the twin towers? They risked their lives.

There's a huge difference between risking a life to save a life, compared to risking a life to give closure to a family. It's definitely a tragic situation but I hope you can see the difference there.

Quote

Why do they say it's too dangerous if they don't even try?

This is what you've been repeating the most.
The answer is: because they're experts... They don't need to try to know the risk.

Can you see the flaw in your logic here? How do you know you'll die if you jump from that skyscraper if you haven't tried? Well, because you can assess the situation and use your previous experiences and knowledge to determine the most likely outcome without trying.
That's what these people have done: they went on site, looked at everything, and decided that the conditions make the retrieval way too risky for now.

I understand it's aggravating for the families to add this wait to the loss of their loved ones, but I strongly believe there is nothing more than carefully evaluated risk without any prejudice related to nationality or race.

6 hours ago, robblok said:

Reason he has to deny is is because even on this forum people are saying its a false flag operation. Without any proof i might ad I could as well say it was Thaksin and it would hold as much weight. (none at all). There is no evidence yet pointing in any real direction but people love to speculate so he has to deny it. 

You're right that there's no evidence.

But the speculation isn't totally baseless. The only consequence of these bombings so far has been the announcement by the government that these events will delay the promised elections. You must admit it's a bit odd. France or Germany didn't delay their elections despite being hit by much more damaging terrorist attacks. In which way these 'small bombs' -- who seem to be planted in a way greatly minimizing potential casualties -- are a threat to the elections?

These bombs seem to be pretty convenient for the junta. 

1 hour ago, gdgbb said:

The same way that any law breakers do, they just do it.   Let's hope they crack down on the illegal, uninsured drivers even more until their service is legalised and passengers have the protection that registered, legal taxis provide.

Oh this 'uninsured' argument is <deleted>. Given the choice, I'd rather go in a safe uninsured vehicle than an unsafe insured one. Also, many of us anyway have an insurance that would cover that.

There's a lot of cons regarding UBER (they have been caught with quite scummy practices), but I think it is unfortunately necessary for us consumers to hope that UBER holds on well if we ever want to see some improvement with the way taxis work in Thailand. If they were to cease their activity until the law legalizing it is enacted, you can be certain that said law would be postponed ad infinitum. Hopefully once it's done, competitors with better practices can emerge.

As it is now, UBER does a great service to customers where it operates in Thailand. It's a real kick in the nuts to the Chiang Mai and Phuket taxi mafias, and, to a lesser extent, a good highlight of the shortcomings of Bangkok taxis (cleaner cars, safer driging, don't refuse trips, tacking, etc...)

Brilliant idea. (I'm sarcastic here).

Complain that imigrants don't integrate, then cut out the best way you have of getting their children to adopt your values.

The whole story is very sketchy. Maybe a lot got lost in the reporting, but the story sounds... odd.

If she was indeed abducted, i really hope the police will actively work at resolving that.

But for now, there are too many troubling things like the existence of the gofundme page or the type and location of the injuries* that make me feel cautious about taking sides.

*the scraping on the chin is almost 100% from a fall. The marks on the hand and the arm don't look like something you'd get by being beaten up or bound, but again look a lot like scraping from a fall. I'm no forensic expert, it's just that a couple months ago I had a few too many drinks, tripped on the uneven curb in front of my house and landed over my hand and hit my chin... and that's almost exactly what it looked like (although no mark on my arm)

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PROs:

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• Data is accessible from any device, anywhere in the world
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CONs:

• You're not the owner of the server. If one day the company decides to change the rules (make you pay, close your account... or just goes under) then you're SOL
• Cloud services are an attractive targets for hackers. iCloud has been hacked (although to be faire it involved a lot of social engineering, and not just a technical bypass of the security measures). And your account itself could be compromised even if iCloud is totally secure (e.g.: Another site is hacked and you used the same username/password than your iCloud account on that one).
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ICloud_leaks_of_celebrity_photos

The recommendation: Use Cloud backup as an addition of hardware backup. For example: auto Cloud sync of your working files + daily/weekly backup of your data on an extenal drive stored separately from the computer.