uncle_tom

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According to Dr. John Campbell there are 8000 people alive today who caught sars covid 1. And 17 years later all of these people have complete immunity to covid-19. So there is evidence that immunity to covid-19 gained through vaccines could, and probably will, give lifelong immunity. 

It gets better than that. Check out out the US states and Canadian provinces that have the lowest incidence (as cases per million population) of Covid.

- What do they have in common?

They are all down wind (literally) of the 2002/3 Toronto SARS outbreak. Whilst it seems at first take improbable, the chances of these stats arising randomly are in themselves extremely remote. It seems likely that SARS virus (quite possibly dead virus, given exposure to the elements for hundreds of miles as it is carried on the wind) and arriving in exceptionally small quantities, has nevertheless managed to build enduring resistance to Covid.

Moreover this is not confined to Toronto. Taiwan has not staved off Covid through extreme restrictions, reports suggest that precautions are only moderately observed there. The legacy of SARS is widespread resistance to Covid, encompassing many more people than got infected with SARS.

The even better news is that if a light brush with SARS twenty years ago gives you protection against Covid today, it is unlikely that any mutation of Covid will spawn a fresh pandemic.

It's a fair call that as people build resistance from low level exposure, Covid is very likely to vanish into the background over the coming months.

It's an imperfect world, and wasting resources imprisoning someone who has shown no regard for the sanctity of human life is pointless.

As to method, there is a very simple and inexpensive way that never seems to get a mention, that will also not traumatise those who do the honours.

Construct a cell as a sealed room, with ventilation via inlet and outlet grills. At the appointed time, preferably when the prisoner is asleep, substitute pure nitrogen in place of air at the inlet grill. This will slowly flush the air out of the cell and the oxygen level will drop. If not already asleep, the prisoner will pass out due to oxygen deprivation and subsequently die, but as it is completely odourless and does not provoke a reaction in the body, there will be no distressing effects.

As the gas is not poisonous in itself (air is 80% nitrogen) the cell can be flushed with air and the body removed.

As I predicted a month ago 'peak Covid' - the greatest number of new cases, worldwide, in a day, is probably behind us now.

And there is really encouraging news on two fronts:

One is the confirmation that exposure to SARS two decades ago is resulting in immunity to Covid today. With such enduring and broad immunity, it follows that a minor mutation of this bug is very unlikely to spark a second pandemic, and that this really does look like a bug people will only ever get once.

The second is the confirmation that memory B cells, once stimulated by exposure to the bug, continue to multiply after the bug has been defeated. This confirms the theory that nano level exposure to the bug - levels too low to trigger an infection, can nevertheless result in the body building defences against it.

It might sound a bit too optimistic, but there really is a good chance that increasing developed resistance as well as immunity gained from past infection, will see the numbers of cases tumble and the bug start to burn itself out - something that could happen quite quickly.

Much of the world could be effectively post-Covid as soon as next March.

But Thailand.. hmm..

There is an intrigue however - just being down wind of a SARS outbreak - even hundreds of miles down wind - is clearly resulting in very low numbers of Covid cases. The US states and Canadian provinces that were down wind of the Toronto SARS outbreak are the states and provinces with the lowest count of Covid cases (as a population %) - and by some margin. On the face of it, it seems unlikely, but the stats are compelling.

But which way did the wind blow in Asia during the SARS outbreak in 2002/3? - are the low levels of Covid in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam the result of lingering resistance borne of SARS on the wind?

Whatever happens, when Covid is seen to be fizzling out, the pressure to get Thai tourism back to normal will grow stronger by the day..

More sops to the sort of people who can afford private jets..

2000/month compared to a normal high season figure of 3,000,000/month

They are talking about numbers that are less than 0.1% of normal..

Most recent Covid analysis in the UK shows that in many urban areas the infection rate had peaked and was tumbling before the second round of restrictions was put in place.

There's a bit of a bow wave radiating out into the suburbs, but the urban data is very encouraging, it really does look as though we are getting past the worst of this crisis now.

Many other countries also appear to be well on course to becoming 'post-Covid'

But where does this leave the LoS - where it hasn't really started yet? Are they going to be messing around with quarantine and a totally trashed tourist industry for years - or will they tire of trying to keep it at bay?

Looks like they're being paid about 2/3 the national average wage for Israel, so not super cheap labour.

And let's face it, the Thai pace of working is pretty leisurely..

Bears and woods come to mind..

Over 20 years ago now, a friend of mine bought what I think was the first B747 to be scrapped by BA. They wanted the engines as spares, so rather than sell the whole plane to a banana republic, they landed it at an airfield in Leicestershire, took off the engines and sold him the rest as scrap for a very modest sum.

Being an aero engineer, he knew which parts could be sold on the second hand market, so after removing them he had the rest of hull broken for scrap metal - but one bit remains, which I believe is still in the back of his garage.

Being a first generation 747, it had a rudder counterweight made of depleted uranium, and there isn't much of a market for it..!

Whilst we only have the sketchiest of details, the timeline hints that she might have caught it from the health worker who tested her whilst in quarantine.

Whilst Thailand has reported very few cases of Covid, one has to wonder how hard they have been looking for it.

Recent video footage on YouTube from the LoS shows little mask usage and no social distancing. There are no effective preventative measures being observed.

56% of Tripadvisor reports rate the hotel as 'Excellent' - which is pretty good going. Add in the 'Very good' ratings and you're up to 87%

As a random comparison, the Hua Hin Hilton gets 79% approval in the top two slots, and the tired old Manhattan off Sukhumvit only manages 57%..

I got an insight into this around a decade ago -  people and their families, originally from Cambodia, who had fled from Pol Pot and settled in Thailand, living and raising families entirely below the radar - no ID cards, no further education, no recognised citizenship.

They appeared to be tolerated as a source of cheap agricultural labour. Without documentation they were effectively trapped - It seemed a very bad state of affairs..

"Just off for my morning 10Km cycle"

Which probably explains your ability to avoid infections..

Keeping your metabolism and vitamin D levels high is the route to avoiding colds and flu. These bugs don't spread in the winter because it's cold and damp - they spread in the winter because with the sun below 30 degrees, there's not enough UV to make your own vitamin D - the population becomes collectively deficient and the bugs take off.

Keeping your metabolism running hot keeps your innate immune system in top form. It's not a good idea to go on a diet in the winter..

Seems an utterly crazy prediction to make.

We are in the midst of an evolving story with this pandemic, and whilst I have a pretty strong sense of where things are going, based on the available evidence; it points toward a big dilemma for the LoS.

Antibodies and vaccinations look increasingly like a massive red herring when it comes to getting over Covid, but slight exposure to the live virus, even at a nano level, seems capable of stimulating our innate defences into providing effective resistance to this entire class of bug.

Of particular interest is the fact that the three US states with the lowest percentage infection level of Covid (and by some margin) are also the states that were downwind of the 2002/3 Canadian SARS outbreak.

More recently, the recent upsurge in cases in Europe has had a far more modest effect on London, which had a relatively high level of infection earlier in the year, but still only a tiny percentage of the population. It looks increasingly as though for every actual infection in urban areas, several more people are developing resistance without infection.

If my estimates are correct, we are very close to 'peak Covid' now, and that the highest daily number of cases (globally) will soon be behind us. Europe, the Americas, Africa, Western Asia and the Indian subcontinent are all likely to be effectively post-Covid within a few months.

But for China, SE Asia and Australasia comes the dilemma - having effectively run away from the bug, they will lack the innate resistance to travel to those countries where it has become endemic, and will also be unable to welcome visitors for the same reason.

It could be a full year before they feel able to engage tourism in either direction - possibly longer..

^{So, first they announced a return of charter flights with 1200 people a month - compared to the normal 100k per day tourism rate.} 

^{Seemed to tally not with the visit of regular tourists, but the number who have private jets.}

^{And now we have this measure - for the benefit of big property investors no doubt, who can't afford private jets and have to slum it in first class instead..}

A lot of countries have new case graphs that strongly suggest that they are now moving toward a state of herd immunity with Covid. Not only that, but they appear to be doing so with far fewer actual infections that the experts predicted would be necessary to reach that state.

Although still early days to put hard numbers on it, a bit of number crunching suggests that more people are building resistance to the bug through low level exposure to it than though gaining a sufficient viral load as to cause an infection.

There seems to be a good chance that this bug will join the dozens of other bugs we live with and barely notice, periodically doing the rounds amongst young children, but so asymptomatically as to go unseen.

- But only once herd immunity has been reached. The subcontinent and much of Latin America seem to be well on the way to reaching this state, whilst in the UK, the recent flare up has been largely away from London, suggesting that the capital is also on track from its exposure earlier in the year.

But Thailand, along with most of east Asia whilst being successful in keeping infections to very low levels, is still nowhere when it comes to living with it, which presents a big dilemma for the resumption of tourism..

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Yes but if it's really about age, then make it about age and say that nobody over xx years of age can enter.... Maybe even go a step further and say that anybody who is at risk of serious illness from CV 19 (e.g. those with diabetes) are also not allowed. 

Age can affect the risk to the individual - but makes them no more likely to spread it..

There has never been an effective vaccine against any type of corona virus before, which does not bode well for that avenue of attack.

I expect that when the clinical trials are completed, there will be something called a vaccine marketed. I suspect those raising doubts as whether it actually works or not, will find themselves shouted down.

Too many governments have backed themselves into an economic corner over Covid. I expect that any vaccine will be hailed as a game changer - even if it's totally useless..

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Nobody living on 50k baht a year, I assure you

I know one guy living with his Thai wife and stepdaughter on about 200k p.a. - but it's a very basic existence..

I'm pretty certain the term 'charter flights' was used when they really meant private jets - obliging the super rich..

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Intentionally, I believe

That much I doubt. Whether it was a lab accident or just a consequence of too many people living on the planet may one day be revealed..

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China will own LOS soon enough and be making the rules.

China has been playing a gradual global domination game for the past two decades - however Covid has woken people up to that - I don't think countries are going to be bought that easily now..