uncle_tom
-
Posts
69 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Downloads
Posts posted by uncle_tom
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
I think people are pretty much agreed that this is not only a non-starter, but the tiny numbers indicated show a complete lack of realism.
Moreover people in or attached to government are clearly looking for opportunities to profiteer out of those tourists who do make the effort.
The people who made up the red shirt movement have the greatest to lose from the tourist high season failing to materialise - I wonder what they are making of this right now?
- 3
-
* This just in * Quarantine Hotels to have no windows.
I had to read the next sentence to decide whether or not this was sarcasm, given the other tourism revival schemes that surface week after week. (it was sarcasm, right? Right?)
A lot of the cheap hotels used by Thais don't have windows..
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
The Thai government is still far detached from reality..
For years, largely due to the government paying homage to the vision of the late King, who wanted Thailand to exist without dependency on overseas nations; the importance of tourism to the Thai economy has been massively understated.
With the exception of some small island states, I can't identify any nation on the planet more economically reliant on tourism than the LoS.
The UK, for whom tourist spending is very much a sideshow to the economy, nevertheless attributes 10% of GDP to that sector. In Thailand, it is probably safe to estimate that tourism is several times as important, yet officially it is only listed as 9% GDP - allegedly less in percentage terms than the UK, and in cash terms, a whopping seven fold less.
At a pinch I could accept that the cash value of UK tourism might be marginally greater than Thailand's, but it is clear to me that tourism, and the trickle down from tourism, is probably closer to 40% of Thai GDP rather than 9%.
So the key question now, is when will the impact of this really hit home, and kick the Thai government out of it's complacency..?
- 6
- 1
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
The collapse of the deaths numbers has been massively under-reported. We still have people believing (including on this thread..) that Covid is a serious mortal threat, yet it is clear that it really isn't now, and that the few who get this bug badly are now being very effectively treated.
Of all the people dying in the UK now, only about 0.5% have previously tested positive for Covid, and of those, most were at life's end for other reasons.
Compared to the risk to life posed by flu, Covid is nowhere near as dangerous.
- 4
-
Quote
how about you and the others referencing the economic cost of the government policy, cost out your position?
- How much will the increase in infections cost Thailand if the borders reopen?
- How would Thailand handle/manage the increased number of infected?
- How would these tourists who become ill be managed?
- What is the contingency plan when foreign countries impose a border closure?e
OK, let's take a responsible and reasoned approach to these issues.
The cost to the Thai economy of keeping tourists out is immense. Thai national pride has resulted in official data being 'edited' when it comes down to the significance of tourism for the Thai economy. I know the reasoning behind this, but that's a distraction right now. The reality is that it's huge.
Tourism, in economic terms, is the difference between an economy that is on the global average for prosperity per capita and one that lags way behind that. Thailand is pretty useless when it comes to manufacturing efficiency or technological innovation - lovely people, but not hot on productivity and advancing new tech - there are no Thai Nobel prize winners! Tourism, and the trickle down from tourism, is it's economic bedrock.
So, against that, what will the cost be of the increased infections when the borders reopen? The treatment of Covid is well worked out now - people are not dying from it any more (that really needs to be shouted from the rooftops - the only deaths now are people already dying for other reasons) More importantly, unlike conditions like AIDS, treatment does not come at immense cost - it is very affordable.
- So cost is not a serious issue.
Thailand is awash with hospitals, and anyone who has been to a Thai hospital knows they are never over-stretched. Compared to the UK's NHS, they are a wonder to behold.
- The ability of medical facilities to cope has been used as a ruse to justify oppressive lock down regimes in many countries. We should be wise to that one now.
The cost of Covid treatment is very low, if it is needed at all. Against the few tourists who get it badly enough to require medical assistance, insurances could be demanded. The insurers worried about Covid when it first appeared, but now they have the measure of it, should have no problem pricing the risk.
- Let insurers cover the financial hazard.
No country closes its borders to it's own citizens. They may impose quarantine restrictions, but they never refuse them entry.
- The return of tourists is therefore not an issue that should concern the Thai authorities. If Tourists find it expedient to stay longer in Thailand due to events at home, then that is something Thailand should view as an opportunity to further bolster their economy, rather than view as a problem.
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
I've been expecting a fairly sudden and urgent consensus to emerge around the world, that as there's nothing that we can do about this bug in the long term, and treatment of those that get it is well worked out now, so we need to live with it and get back to normal.
And what would provoke that change of heart? - The financial markets.
So far, the financial markets have taken the line that Covid is a temporary blip that will be followed by a return to economic normality, and that it therefore has very little long term impact on the economy of any nation.
So far. But that was a reasonable stance to take three months ago, when most countries had some sort of agenda to return to normal - now many countries are stuck in stasis - frozen like frightened rabbits cowering on a busy road, whose only agenda now is to restrict and extend.
Tourism is a massive component of the Thai economy, even though the Thai government massages the figures to try to downplay the fact. Excepting a few island states, Thailand is quite possibly the most tourism dependant nation on the planet.
Not having an agenda to get tourism fully back up to speed should now be bothering the financial market analysts big time - how could Thailand cope with far less tourist revenue going forward?
An economy that is currently close to the global average could very easily plunge to a banana republic level, if tourism massively reduced.
This should now be having a big impact on the value of Baht, and borrowing costs should be rising steeply at the prospect of the tourist high season not taking place this year.
But the markets and their analysts currently appear to be asleep.
Will they suddenly wake up - I wonder?
- For currency speculators, betting against the Baht seems a good call right now..
- 3
-
2 minutes ago, Boomer6969 said:
5. Thais have been exposed to dirty Farang sex tourists for over 60 and have therefore built up a strong "herd immunity".
Most people who have looked in to std transmission in Thailand have concluded that the problem is careless Thai men - not tourists..
-
Don't look at the number of cases in France - that just reflects increased testing.
Look at the number of deaths - which is virtually zilch..
We can't eradicate this bug, but the treatment of the few who get it badly is well worked out now.
Thailand needs its tourist cash - it's status as a middle ranking economy absolutely depends on that..
-
I returned to the UK on March 23rd. My other half stayed back in Thailand for what was supposed to be a fortnight because a cousin was being invested as a monk - and she's been stuck there ever since..
It doesn't help that her family compare the Covid stats between the LoS and UK and worry she'll catch the bug here. It also doesn't help that virtually her entire family work or have worked for Thai Airways, and the idea of flying with anyone else is anathema. However, as Thai are still dysfunctional on the international front, I've talked her round to the idea of flying with another carrier, probably Lufthansa.
Her family are still being difficult however, and are picking up on every rumour going around.
There's a good recent thread here to counter the notion that once she's left Thailand, getting back will be really hard.
However, does anyone have a link to guidance on what hoops she has to jump through to fly out of the LoS now, that is bang up to date? There is so much stuff out there and so much has changed over the last few months, it's hard to know what is current. The UK end is simple - it's getting her onto a plane I need to be clear about..
-
I was given access to the Royal Orchid lounge. Good bar, but meagre food offerings.
In the end the plane left an hour late yet arrived at LHR twenty minutes ahead of schedule. Checking the flight data as we crossed Europe I noticed that we had a small tail wind - unusual when flying west.
The A380 was about three quarters full, and mindful of how that can overload immigration, I put my best foot forward when leaving the plane and managed to not only be the first off the plane, but also the first passenger of the day at T2 immigration - I was also the first to reclaim their luggage.
There was no temperature screening at Heathrow, just a leaflet handed out.
I reached the Heathrow underground station 26 minutes after touchdown. The Tube was almost deserted - barely 5% of normal passenger numbers.
- 1
-
As promised, here is the update of the situation within BKK
As of this evening, the airport is looking surprisingly normal. Most Asian passengers are wearing masks, most farangs are not. Everyone entering the building is having their temperature checked, otherwise there are no special measures. There is no hand sanitiser for passenger use anywhere, including the toilets, so bring your own.
Queues and general passenger numbers are not unusual. Despite the restaurant closure notices, all the airport facilities are operating normally, including the lounges.
My flight, TG910 is delayed 45 minutes which is a real pain, as public transport in London has been greatly scaled down. Unless the pilot tries to make up time, my planned connections at the other end will be missed.
If you're flying into London, do check your connections - about half of all trains are not running at the moment..
-
Ouch! You're a hard bitten lot!
OK a girlfriend or wife is obvious, but that entails the usual lies and bullshit - I like to keep in control (without telling lies) and I want to end this trip without moral obligation.
A separate maid and bedmate looks likely, but I was curious to know if there was a compromise culture.
I am too stingy to pay for both?
- yes if I don't have to!
Thanks guys!
Tom
-
As a writer planning to spend several months of next winter in Thailand to work on my next book, I'm planning to rent a modest apartment, probably in Hua Hin.
On previous, shorter visits to the kingdom, I've stayed in hotels and enjoyed the bar scene.
For this trip I will need a maid. My understanding is that maids are "good" girls, and out of reach from a carnal standpoint. I also reckon that trying to engage a bar girl as a maid with "extras" is likely to be unsatisfactory.
Is there a half way house that I could tap into? A live-in maid who is outwardly a "good" girl, but doesn't need a bed of her own...
My guess is that there must be plenty of girls who wouldn't drop to the level of working the bars, but would appreciate an enhanced income. Question is, how do I find one?
Any of you seasoned ex-pats got any practical suggestions??
Tourists on the new Special Tourist Visa will have to arrive on charter flights
in Thailand News
Posted
DO NOT WANT TOURISTS ANYMORE
Possibly - if they believe their own figures, they might think they can manage without..
..they'll soon find out they can't..