andytime

On ‎5‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 3:40 PM, seancbk said:

 

Tell you nothing except that some units are not being lived in.   

 

It tells you that not normal, nor healthy, nor sustainable long term.  Either the developer, bank or speculator needs a return on their money.  Maybe anomalies caused by Thai/foreign ownership rules but eventually reality catches up.  Bangkok has enough rooms to stage every major sporting and cultural event simultaneously and gung ho building more -  that will not work long term for imaginary or other capital gains.  I bought at 20.5k per sq m 100m away from Samitivej hospital.. if they are selling (trying to sell for 8 or 9 times that on the other side of the road 12 years later - then either my price was ridiculous, they are grossly overpriced or somewhere in between). With oil workers out, Chevron concession over and a generally overpriced expensive market.. maybe some are making rental and investment choices elsewhere.  One suspects a few fish flapping on the shore shortly. The renters are few and far between and most want a better deal as we have surplus supply.  Totally understandable.  I can remember when Japan peaked an the effect on the Gold Coast et al and maybe China's investment in Thailand  (increased because of changes in Oz/Canada and NZ) may also come to an abrupt end.

7 hours ago, heybruce said:

If my unarmed brother or sister died courtesy of a helicopter gunship I would like to know the real truth, regardless of the nationality of the gunship.  In relatively open societies I am much more likely to learn the truth than in closed societies.

 

So why is Assange focusing on open societies and not closed societies? 

Sadly we have no open societies anymore, the real truth is reworked.. look at the circus concerning fabricated Russian intel on Trump by the very security organizations at the heart of open society America -  CIA, DOJ and FBI.. Lorreta Lynch meeting Billy Boy to discuss golf... 33k emails deleted, McCabe's wife's campaign funded by the Clintons, $2B Clinton foundation donations by countries/powerful people who stop when their horse runs second (Australia donated 88m USD but want to cut pensioners entitlements who went to fight government's wars).  A "submissive void" (per Pilger article) now exists in society.  Maybe others die or know they will die before ever making it to the drop box in your so called "closed" societies -  we don't know.   We are in a new media age - journalism and the truth has totally changed.  Assange (et al) provides that service with no bullshit spin.  I believe we have a right to know the truth in what you deem "open" or "closed" societies not the government crap.  Sadly people are more interested in whether someone liked the picture of their meal tonight or the watch or car they are driving.  Who will tell you the truth about what really happened with the helicopter gunship now and in years to come??  The Washington Post, the Guardian, Time or perhaps CNN??

On ‎4‎/‎13‎/‎2019 at 10:17 AM, heybruce said:

Here's a nice summary:

 

" WikiLeaks’ willingness to serve as an uncritical and enthusiastic laundromat for Russian intelligence reflects the group’s longer history of publishing material with little or no newsworthiness, but calculated to undermine American interests..... In contrast, WikiLeaks almost never publishes leaks that might undermine America’s autocratic rivals. Mr Assange may not be an enemy agent, but he has at least been a useful idiot." https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/04/12/julian-assange-journalistic-hero-or-enemy-agent

 

I'd like to post more, but the moderator's can be really strict about the three sentence fair-use rule.  It is within these limits to state that The Economist does not consider Assange to be a journalist.  It has better words to describe him.  I encourage others to read the article.

Read this and wake up.. If your unarmed brother or sister died courtesy of a US helicopter gunship gunning them down my guess is you'd like to know the real truth.. not some government <deleted>... press freedom is everything (new age journalism or not).. other news sites and many government agencies write total fabricated rubbish and many people have died and history has been changed as a consequence .. 1984 sadly is here already.. look at the process for a conservative judge selection.. as for the Russian bullshit (try Clintoncash).  Try reading someone and a publication who/that is not a mainstream shill and in this case someone who has a history of championing human rights and protecting the truth  https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-13/john-pilger-assange-arrest-warning-history

I understand all of your concerns but the same way you love your son maybe your wife does too.  Most mothers have pretty strong bond with their kids and the complicated process for birth may increase that love.   Her bond may be no less endearing than your own (albeit in her own Thai way) I have no idea of her background and all of the problems. From the point of view of your son I am sure he will want both a mother and father in his life if possible.  I am not sure whether do with a 4 year old but you will have an interview with Thai family services people and they will ask the kid about home situation.  Unless your wife is popping pills or something else then likely struggle to win sole custody in Thailand.  Best way imho is to try sort out an amicable situation with your ex wife where share custody in some way.  Good luck...

I got a multi non O issued in Jan 19 for a Thai child from Penang.. perhaps changed post this but suspect ok. 

I had an expensive divorce here (married In Thai law/living here) and lost quite enough however my ex wife was seemingly unable to go after assets she knew I had in Oz and certainly would have pursued that option if available.  I also had a valuable property here that came after marriage (18 months). She was also unable to get a half share of that based on the property being wholly funded by my pre-existing assets. I lost quite enough but the Thai divorce law appears favourably applied to asset holders even if the assets change form.. ie assets of some kind exist beforehand and are then sold (into cash) and then that money is re-invested back into a property at a later point in time.  That was my experience albeit the first lawyer said give her half of the property coming after marriage and would have been expensive negative advice.  She had other properties in her name that I had bought that she kept but I managed to save this property in Thailand that was purchased after official marriage.

5 hours ago, TopDeadSenter said:

sorry, but Australia is - and always has been - about 20 years behind the rest of the developed world. Progressive liberalism has brought Europe to it's knees, and the centrist/right parties are finally seeing a resurgence of support. People are fed up with an unprecedented violent and sex crime epidemic, and the draconian censorship needed to contain the backlashes to this chaos. Australia has escaped unscathed from this great migration of unintegratables thanks to their detention in offshore camps, although the beginnings of this chaos is apparent in progressive Melbourne where there have already been vehicle jihad, regular home invasions and other trappings of mass migration of unskilled migrants of vastly differing idiologies than the usual Oz bloke.

 If Australia goes for the far left parties now, and with it the mass migration they love so much, in 20 years time they will be in the situation Europe is now in. Hopefully Pauline Hanson is still alive and kicking in 20 years time if things go as it looks like they will. Good luck Australians it is not a fun ride.

Perfectly put.......sadly Australia has run some of the highest migration numbers per capita in the Western World.. ask Germany and Sweden how the integration process is faring for people whose allegiance is sadly not to the guest country but rather a religion?  A total of 415 people employed out of 2m plus migrants employed in the top 15 German companies.. almost all at DeutschePOST.  Ask Sydney and Melbourne folk how working for them? Why should the laws of a country be supplanted with Sharia or any other?  Please name as "successful" country basing its legal system on the former? 

He seems to have assimilated considerably better to his host country than many who are financial migrants in Europe et al who are relying upon other taxpayers to support them and their relatively large extended families living elsewhere (and soon living next door).  He doesn't have a hand out by the looks of things. Germany is even paying for holidays for many newbies for a quick return trip home to countries fleeing.  

It's clear evidence of zip. And I'll wager my Asian bank stays afloat a lot longer after your American bank has sunk.

I am not American but I can assure you that all banks will be feeling more than a wee bit overextended at present - Thai, Aussie, American, European, Brazilian, South African, Japanese, Russian and likely most of all Chinese ones. Losing $1.4 billion USD is never great I'm sure regardless of how you split it up and think it is easy to stomach. SCB were downgraded by one of the credit agencies this week.. As for their car loans and condo loans - a discussion for another time. I'm sure they're performing great.

That is likely all insignificant when you look at China which has made America look like a school kid in the credit creation stakes. Throw in the mainland gambling culture of red/black and doubleup and I will assure you worry about this backyard first and foremost.

The one thing that one can be sure of is America despite it being as monty python in the dead parrot skit puts it "shagged after a long squawk" will not be the first one under the bus. Of that I can assure you.

Look around the world and watch the wipeout in currencies - Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Australia, Euro, Malaysia, Singapore and a 20% loss on the thai baht in just over a year. The many trillions borrowed in USD just cost a lot (LOT) more to pay back.

Arguing about my Thai bank is better than your American one is for kids.

China will provide all of us with a doozy of a headache - the order of collapse is important and America and their banks will NOT be the first to fold nor will they be going under the bus first.

China is now limiting all overseas ATM withdrawls for the balance of this year to 50,000 RMB and next year total of 100k through UNIION PAY.

The doors are closing fast.

Figures arrived at using a rejected Chinese calculator.

What a cuckoo world.... try encourage some more people to buy things they don't need with money they don't have to create unknown impressions that don't last on people they don't even care about. A doozy of a headache approaches for Thailand and the whole of an overleveraged debt laden world.

One would have thought someone would have worked that out after reviewing the car loans scheme provided to the "poor" souls who could ill afford and lack the understanding of what it really costs them.

What is wrong with cleaning up your beaches, aquaculture expansion and doing away with the taxi mafia.

Well perhaps they should have had a look 747 inbound from HK this week (Sat night) that carried a total of 45 passengers before making up more stories given their vested interests.

Perhaps TAT should organize a CLEAN UP THAILAND day. This will likely yield more long term benefits than their marketing campaigns and ignorance as to what is really happening.

_{Taking nothing away from the effects of a coup but The China story and the fallout from their credit boom and for that matter the rest of the world will make any country wish for only a 3% decline in exports. Almost all currencies short of pound /CHF are collapsing against the dollar. Borrow in dollars and payback in dollars.... that will really hurt.}

Buy SGD at superrich down opposite big C in pratunam and you will get the best buy rates there that is of course if you have a bit to change.

Nothing is ever a one way bet. Easy money from Japan and the states has flowed in search of yield causing the baht to rise. Japan's weakening yen will give China, Korea and Thailand huge headaches. If Japan gets inflation the bond market blows up along with much greater declines in the yen. The possible ramifications - likely hot money flows in reverse out of Asia would be my guess. America whilst dead as a dodo will not be the first under the bus that is for sure. The timeline of events will be interesting but a substantial weakening of the EU or yen will likely bring some changes most do not expect at the moment.

Fairly certain the housing will hold up as Thai's don't care if the market falls. They still hold as many large complexes were built on laundered funds thus they have nothing to lose. There could be larger percentages of default of course by families but I don't think it will affect the 'system' greatly.

Just the same as it doesn't affect anywhere else that has a housing bubble I guess sarc (just leaves people paying off overpriced properties for years to come). Thailand got out of 1997 because the currency devalued and other countries poured their money in and they were in a vastly different stage of their life. Ask Bernake whether he saw a nationwide US real estate bubble in 2006 and he said he did not buy your premise. How well is that working for him now? Here in Thailand some may "own" the building/s and my guess would be many may not and there are considerably more speculators than you may believe. Rents are falling, fewer tenants, and many empty units (have a look at Millennium in soi 16 if you are in any doubt) with more stock in the pipeline. Oh yes and no lights on.. all is fine then. Asians have balls bigger than Ben Hur (ONLY when it comes to investing ) but the vision of a blind mullet on serepax when it comes to recognizing what is happening elsewhere - just ask Japan in 1989 which planet they were headed to? You really think Thailand is any different? I bet not. The ramp up of personal credit which has been offered to mickey mouse and donald duck in thailand with car loans to those earning 12k a month one suspects the "system" may be more greatly affected than you reason for personal credit items along with real estate. Money may flow into a place at speed but I bet it flows out faster (just ask the BRIC countries how swell everything is going at the moment despite the fact that china's numbers (along with most other countries just don't add up). Whilst the dollar is a total lackey at the moment i suspect if you think the baht is a one way bet then you will have a very rude awakening. Spending and stealing borrowed money for mega infastructure projects may look and sound great at first but if you can't even keep your beaches clean then i sort of think the wave that catches you will be the one you least expect.

A tragedy for the poor guy. This HOTEL along with many other hotels should be sued (but won't be TIT).. the balcony rails at FURAMA in Jomtien are scary... designed to assist you falling.

Shame on the government cronies for creating more debt slaves.... luckily the cards can be used at shops having ties to government ministers and friends all with a friendly 20+% markup. As for the poor Elephants... it seems like some monkeys are making decisions for them.......all told a thai circus.

The whole (western) world is mired in debt (and now asia loading up at speed on debt) and people's beliefs and values are based on what has always happened before. We determine good or bad value based on what we thought we paid or received before. Maybe this time will be a little different. The world is in a structural mess. Western consumers are tapped out and the "consumption" was all based on a 40 year plastic et al credit boom which has now ended or in the last stages of its life which allowed people to buy things they never had the money for today (and not tomorrow). Asia has exported many of these magical things we consume. Maybe 10-35% (perhaps a lot more) of the cake will be gone (likely forever). Not sure of the Christmas tree consumption but we won't be using as many going forward that is for sure. Throw in massive demographic changes and structural changes that have resulted from globalization and the challenges ahead will be many. Someone that used to earn commission selling a TV set or stereo now works (if lucky) packing it for despatch on $7-10 an hour if in the states. Whilst Thailand produces.. this time around one suspects that credit inspired binges here encouraging people to take on debt for the purchase of cars/houses and condominiums will once again end badly. Considerably worse than government projections (look at Brazil.. estimated 26% default rate on credit cards.. a little scary if true). The world does not stop and yes many thousands and millions want what many have had but few of these have the capacity (and one would argue stupidity). However, perhaps a reality check is required. Can tourist numbers possibly be the same? Can expenditure be the same? Can exports remain the same and continue growing? All perhaps are based on this broken model and as economists are discovering world over (Australian economists just discovered a 28k plus job loss whilst those same people expected flat employment figures) that things will be different. Don't believe the authorities lies... educate yourself on what is happening and why? Few predicted what happened in 2007/8 and if they did not then take their word with a pinch of salt. Governments and the power brokers will manipulate things in their favour at the expense of the you and me of this world. Whilst the USD serves as the world's reserve currency - it's obligations and liabilities are likely to sink it and a few others like a stone. Whilst things will be volatile and perhaps the dollar is likely to surge one more time we are looking a the end game of a fiat monetary system where people believe bits of paper can be traded for goods. Thailand thinks it will have 15% growth.. only a deluded blind mullet could believe that. Enough overpriced apartments in Thailand for the next 15-20 years and likely enough shopping centre space for each and every thai to open a shop and are you sure the tourists/spinners will keep coming in the same volume to get ripped off. Work out what people really need and these are the sectors where money will be made.. many others may not be there in the years to come. One suspects that 15% growth will be a dream and likewise the party days in the EU, Australia and the states are well and truly over. A long rant beer assisted of course....

Nothing to worry about..... move along remember thailand is a hub for "everything" and that HUB is now the buying hub for just about every product thailand produces (prawns, rice, onion, rubber, pineapples, tapioca et al).. little wonder Thailand has food inflation. You don't think some of the other products that Thailand ships to China are used in finished products shipped onto other markets and that these might slow. I am really surprised his nose is not growing!!!!