RamTodatry

I am a fiscally conservative Democrat, and I voted for Kerry, and was appalled at the turn of events yesterday, as I sat watching CNN all day. Someone else mentioned the blue-state/red-state differences, and I come from Illinois - which is a blue state.

Although I knew the issues and facts (Kerry), and was not fooled by the faith-based initiatives of the Bush campaign which was based on so many lies, distortions and misrepresentations, I felt the tragedy of the situation that I share with the other 49% of Americans who voted with me.

This morning I picked up the latest issue of the Time magazine, and felt consoled after reading a letter from a reader in England.

Here goes:

" I am not sure if it is in the Democrats' best interests to win the November election. The U.S. economy is running an unsustainable deficit, making tax increases inevitable. The U.S may have won the war, but it is losing the peace. The conflict in Iraq is not going away. It cannot be long before withdrawal of U.S. forces becomes the only option. If Kerry comes to preside over these events, the Democrats will have a very unhappy four years."

Ah, I feel better now.

Here is an update from the BBC:

Story from BBC NEWS:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/asia...fic/3695856.stm

Published: 2004/09/28 12:06:22 GMT

Fears mount over Asian bird flu

A Thai woman who recently died of bird flu probably caught the disease from her

daughter, the government has said.

If true, she would be the first person in the latest outbreak to get bird flu

from another human rather than birds.

A case of human-to-human infection would renew fears that bird flu may one day

combine with human flu to create a more deadly version of the disease.

But officials said this was likely to be an isolated case, and the WHO said it

posed no "significant" public risk.

Klaus Stohr, head of the WHO's global influenza programme, said the latest case

was possibly another example of a "non-sustained, inefficient, dead-end-street,

human-to-human transmission".

But he said the WHO was still concerned in case the case was the beginning of a

more widespread transmission.

Family struck

Pranee Thongchan, 26, died of the H5N1 bird flu virus on 20 September, shortly

after her daughter is believed to have died of the same illness, Thailand's

Ministry of Public Health said.

H5N1 BIRD FLU VIRUS

Principally an avian disease, first seen in humans in Hong Kong, 1997

Almost all human cases thought to be contracted from birds

Isolated cases of human-to-human transmission in Hong Kong and Vietnam, but none confirmed

The daughter, Sakuntala, was cremated before tests were conducted, so it will

never be known for certain that she had the virus.

A statement from the Public Health Ministry said Pranee Thongchan: "either

contracted the virus from the environment in the village where the chickens died,

or from the sick daughter who she was taking care of very closely at the

hospital for a long period of time".

Pranee's sister, Pranom - who also looked after Sakuntala in hospital - was

confirmed as suffering from bird flu on Monday, and is now recovering in

hospital.

The ministry statement stressed that the family's case was an isolated one.

"This probable human-to-human transmission of avian influenza was related to a

single index case and was limited within a family," it said.

To reassure those who fear a human-to-human link could lead to a new virulent

strain of the virus, the statement added: "There is no evidence to suggest that

the virus has mutated or re-assorted."

This is not the first suspected case of human-to-human transmission of bird flu.

In previous epidemics - such as that in Hong Kong in 1997 and an outbreak in

several parts of Asia last year - officials were unable to rule out the

possibility that a very small number of victims had contracted the disease from

other humans.

'Crisis of global importance'

At least nine other people have died from bird flu in Thailand so far this year

- and a further 19 in Vietnam - but all are thought to have contracted the

disease from poultry.

Tens of millions of chickens and other poultry have already been killed by the

disease, or culled in an attempt to stop the disease spreading.

Two UN agencies warned on Monday that bird flu was set to remain a serious

threat to animal and human life worldwide for some time to come.

Bird flu was a "crisis of global importance", the UN Food and Agriculture

Organization (FAO) and the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) said in a

joint statement.

They stressed that the virus continued to circulate in East Asia and urged

governments to take more action.

While stressing that culling was the best way to tackle the problem, they added

that vaccination against bird flu could be used as a complementary measure.

The BBC's science correspondent, Richard Black, says the warning by the UN-affiliated bodies is unusually stark.

Story from BBC NEWS:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/asia...fic/3695856.stm

Published: 2004/09/28 12:06:22 GMT

ฉ BBC MMIV

Here is the latest from the New York Times:

Experts Confront Obstacles in Containing Virulent Bird Flu

By KEITH BRADSHER

and LAWRENCE K. ALTMAN

Published: September 30, 2004

BANGKOK, Sept. 29 - With Thai and international experts confirming the first

probable human-to-human transmission of a virulent strain of avian influenza in

this country, public health officials around the world are facing major hurdles

as they try to prepare for a possible pandemic.

Advertisement

Scientists say they cannot predict how quickly, if at all, the strain may

develop the ability to spread easily among people, and whether it will remain as

lethal as it has proven so far.

The strain, A(H5N1), has killed 30 of the 42 Southeast Asians it infected in the

past year, and millions of chickens and wild birds, across wide areas of Asia,

and has infected some pigs, household cats and even zoo tigers. A handful of

cases of human-to-human transmission may have occurred during bird flu outbreaks

in Hong Kong in 1997 and in Europe a year ago, but neither resulted in a

pandemic.

Still, public health experts say it would be irresponsible not to prepare for a

worst-case situation. The so-called Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 to 1919 killed

at least 20 million people, and that was before the development of the modern

transportation system, with its fleets of jumbo jets linking remote areas of the

world - and taking microbes with them. By comparison, AIDS has killed an

estimated 22 million since 1981, according to the United Nations.

On Wednesday, the World Health Organization held a meeting in Geneva of

representatives of the drug industry to demand that they speed vaccine

production. In the United States, scientists with the federal Centers for

Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta are racing to complete a genetic

sequence of the virus from this case to determine if it has acquired any

mammalian influenza genetic material, which could make it more transmissible,

and the government has ordered two million doses of experimental vaccine.

Health officials would normally look to vaccines and antiviral drugs to control

a pandemic, but in this case, those tools have yet to be fully developed and

tested. Conventional flu vaccines are not believed to provide any protection

against A(H5N1) avian influenza.

Human trials of the new vaccine ordered by the United States government are not

expected to begin until the end of this year, at best.

Washington, like the governments in Australia, Japan, New Zealand and a few

other countries, is also stockpiling the only antiviral medicine that may work

against the strain, Tamiflu, but there have been too few human cases to document

its effectiveness.

The symptoms of human bird flu appear to be indistinguishable from severe cases

of conventional flu, with fevers, sneezing, coughing and aches. Scientists have

yet to determine why the A(H5N1) strain is so lethal.

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and

Infectious Diseases, said the United States government was "doing everything

that is technically and feasible to be done at this time - essentially, loading

up and stockpiling Tamiflu to the extent of almost exhausting the manufacturer's

capabilities."

But the absence of a tested vaccine and the scarcity of the antiviral underline

what many health officials say is a chronic mismatch of public health needs and

private control of production of vaccines and drugs.

"The market has failed here to drive companies into research, and we believe

that's something public health should be looking at much more closely in the

future," said Klaus St๖hr, the W.H.O.'s top influenza expert, before Wednesday's

meeting.

Only two large vaccine manufacturers, Aventis Pasteur, based in Swiftwater, Pa.,

and the Chiron Corporation, based in Emeryville, Calif., are braving a thicket

of patent issues and financial concerns to try to use advanced genetic

techniques to develop vaccines against so-called bird flu. And they have

proceeded only with National Institute of Health contracts to do so.

Other drug makers have given several reasons for not making vaccines: that

production is expensive and investment may not be recouped if there is no

pandemic, and that intellectual property rights on new techniques used to make

the vaccine remain unsettled. The standard method for making flu vaccines -

growing virus in chicken embryos - does not work because the A(H5N1) virus is so

deadly that it kills the developing chicks before they can grow enough virus to

be worth harvesting. The new techniques alter the strain's genetics so it can be

grown in the fertilized eggs.

Drug makers also worry that they could be exposed to considerable liability if

they put out a new vaccine without lengthy safety tests first.

Because the clinical trials have not been done, "nobody can go into full-scale

production now, nobody," Dr. St๖hr said.

When vaccines are not available, doctors can turn only to the antiviral Tamiflu.

But it is expensive and may work only if it is given in the first two days after

the onset of symptoms.

Tamiflu is made only by Roche Holding, a Swiss company, at a single small

factory in Europe, although the company has said in recent months that it plans

to build another production line in the United States. Some public health

experts are strongly critical of Roche for not increasing production of Tamiflu

sooner, saying the company should have expanded production early this year, when

avian influenza started becoming a problem across much of Asia.

"You're dealing with very conservative Swiss bankers - to me, they don't see the

opportunity yet," said Arnold Monto, a University of Michigan influenza expert,

pointing out that Tamiflu not used for an avian influenza pandemic could be used

instead to make human influenza less severe.

A Roche spokesman, in an e-mail message responding to questions, said the

company had been supplying Tamiflu at levels demanded by the market and was now

increasing its manufacturing capacity, but declined to provide details. The

company recommends that governments hold enough Tamiflu in stockpiles to treat a

quarter of their population - which would translate into more than 70 million

people in the United States - but notes that few countries have shown much

interest in such stockpiles, at least until recently.

Stockpiles are expensive because the drug is costly: $68 at retail for a 10-capsule

treatment course for one adult.

Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, director of the C.D.C., said that the federal

government had bought enough Tamiflu to treat one million Americans, but added

that if the manufacturing capacity were greater, "we would certainly want to

have a supply that was closer to 100 million than to a million."

Drawing on lessons from past pandemics, Dr. Fauci, the federal official, said

that an avian influenza pandemic might start with an initial wave of cases in

one region of the world, but that the epidemic, if it occurred, might not become

a global problem until the next year, giving vaccine and pharmaceutical

manufacturers more time to respond.

But it is not clear when the confusion may be resolved over the patents on the

reverse genetics process used to grow the new vaccine. Several universities and

an American company, MedImmune Inc., based in Gaithersburg, Md., hold the

patents and have allowed research using the techniques. But no deal has been

reached on how much money vaccine makers would have to pay before beginning

production.

Distributing limited stocks of vaccine and antivirals could also be difficult in

a pandemic, officials warn.

"It will be a very difficult decision to take by governments to decide who is

going to receive the vaccine, who is going to receive the antivirals - or even

more importantly, who is not going to receive the vaccine or the antivirals,"

said Dr. St๖hr. "A simple question would be, if we vaccinate health care workers,

would the nurse also be allowed to vaccinate his child? Would the nurse take the

antivirals or would he take it home? There will be limited resources and all

this has to be thought through now."

Research at Hong Kong University has found that the virus is more active at

cooler temperatures, suggesting that the slow spread of the disease this summer

may not mean it will move as slowly this coming winter. "It is kind of a warning,"

said Malik Peiris, the leader of the research team, "that we should be prepared

particularly for bigger problems in the months ahead."

Keith Bradsher reported from Bangkok for this article, and Lawrence K. Altman

from Bangkok and New York.

Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company

I know that you are new in town, so let us get down to the basics. Inspite of your English, I think we all managed to understand your post. But please do not go and teach English - no offense.

If you have a girl friend, I cannot imagine you blowing this kind of money on a monthly budget.

1. Rent is ok, but can be cheaper depending on where you live. You can still find a very nice, comfortable and modern place for less than that - even in the same area.

2. In a 2BR condo, the only way you blow 8K on utilities is if you leave all 3 ACs ON all the time.

3. How can you spend 6K on mass transit. Mass transit is BTS and the subway (does not include taxis). If you buy the 30 trip card on the skytrain, or the B300 on the subway, I would be hard pressed to blow 6K, If I forget the BTS and the Subway, that is like spending B 200/day on taxis only. Why not blend the three (BTS, subway, taxi) - as it is the fastest way to get around BKK. But a taxi ride cannot be classified as mass transit.

4. At 15K per month, most days you are eating at fairly fancy places, or have a big appetite or both . This in fact might need to be revised higher, when I look at some of your other numbers.

5. Nights out and entertainment - 30K + 10K. Do you plan to go out every night?

6. Clothes and Misc - 10K. No more need for suits. Is this too much?

7. Visa Running - need only 2K per month, if you do not have a visa on your passport.

I do not know your life-style, but I can comfortably cut your budget in half, and still have a good time. Start thinking in Baht - do not think in Euros, or USD, etc.

If you are planning on throwing all this money around, maybe you would invite me to join you one evening.

Thanks billd766. I just called them Jack Golf and have arranged for a trip to Poipet for tomorrow. Spoke to a lady by the name of Nithaya. She wanted me to be at the corner of Soi 12 and Sukhumvit (near the7-11) at 6:45 am with my passport and a photo - cost B2000, and it is a minibus tomorrow.

Will update you'll when I get back.

Can someone recommend a visa run service from Bangkok to Aranyprathet-Poipet. I need to go out and come back no later than tomorrow. Name of company and phone number would help. Thanks.

Can someone suggest/recommend a visa run service to Aranyaprathet/Poipet. I need to get my visa renewed no later than tomorrow? I need to go from Bangkok. Name of the company, phone number would help.

I still cannot understand this government. The only reason that the price of both 91 and 95 octane petrol is being subsidized is because of the votes. But if you want to reduce traffic, is that not the first place to start? Why are the poor subsidizing the rich?

The other issue is that most malls do close by 10:00pm, unless thay are having the month-end "midnight madness sale".

Anyway how does reducing the traffic at night help the daytime traffic as well as early evening traffic. In fact it might get worse, as people might return home early rather than late.

Also empty containers have to be taken back to the freight forwarder to be refilled. The only savings that I see here is not to let trucks just carry one ten foot container instead of two. The savings here in diesel (not petrol) seem very highly inflated.

Car pool lanes are a good idea. How about car pool lanes on the major congested roads within Bangkok, and on the expressways within Bangkok - starting at 5:00 am until 10:00 pm. That might make a difference.

How about a tax (toll) for cars on these major roads - a la London?

Lets hope, and keep hoping.

Yes, the 7 baht rate from CAT (dial 009 from you cell phone - also known as ephone) and the 9 baht rate from TOT apply to mobile phones also.

The 009 prefix changes depending on whether you have a TOT or TA land line, in which case it is different.

Best deal in town right now:

1. Orange 20 hours per day - 10:00pm to 6:00pm - 1 baht per minute - prepaid.

2. Call International using the 009 prefix (this is actually from CAT not TOT) and you pay 7 baht per minute to 30 countries ( North Ameria, Western Europe, ASEAN, China, HK, Japan, etc).

If you dial 007 (TOT) you pay 9 baht - again for a select list of countries.

Switching 800 to 880 or 888 will not work unless the party you are calling has these numbers routed to the same phone. We had a major problem at our office a couple of years ago when another company obtained the same 7-digit number as our 800 number, but with the 888 prefix, and most fools would just dial us.

I did have the same problem a couple of years ago with my DTAC (post paid service), but DTAC has since fixed the problem, but they do warn you saying that you will be charged normal International rates, which is ok.

I am not sure who is your cell phone provider.