ResX

Right or wrong, it is not the right approach when dealing with floods. Water management authorities should not make their flood projection as the important issue. It is wiser to share their flood mitigation standard operating procedure to deal with very minor flood to very big flood.

Let the nature does its job. The authorites shall do theirs. The nature has obligation to listen to their prediction. But they have the obligation to deal with flood efficiently. Very important obligation.

The future Mae Wong dam has little significant to deal with floods the size of the 2011. Thais may not realize the contribution of this dam should the same size of flood as in 2011 flood strikes. I'm pretty sure about it. Why the government pushes this project as if it is very critical? Upgrading Pasak dam flood control capability, I think has much higher merit than this one.

Take the current flooding in the Isaan as an example; between Khon Kaen and Korat there are hundreds of thousands of rai of rice paddy under water and yet it hasnt rained in the area for well over a week. The flooding is a direct result of the inexorable rise of water caused by the opening of dam gates to the north at the same time.

If you read my old post, such poor dam water release strategy is one of the outcomes that I have predicted as early in in Nov 2011. In fact I have advised on of the TVF members in 2010 that his area should have been spared from flood that year as long as no sluice gate at the dams in north would have been opened. Why I could make such assessment owing the fact that I was 1000km++ from flood scene? Answer..I have no reasonably doubt to spare to conclude that water management authorities in Thailand were very unclear about how to go about to manage floods. They still are. I don't mean to be rude but just to be honest.

In one of my posts this year I have "predicted" that by 15th Nov 2013 this year Bhumibol and Sirkit dam will have the total unfilled reserve at least 2.5 billion cubic meters. Just to emphasize my point that excessive released by those two dams were a bit premature. I'm still holding that "prediction" even now. After 15th Nov, I supposed the Chao Pharaya rainfall density will be approaching normal.

One question that you may want to ask. How I can know the event that will take place almost 2 months in future? Answer, I don't. But that is the scenario I will draw if I'm the one who deal with floods in Thailand. Such scenario will influence the amount of discharges from dams that I have to make now. Obviously I should know what those dams are capable of doing to control floods. Bhumibol and Sirkit for example were designed to store their own flood waters all of them at least 49 years out of 50 years if their water levels are correctly regulated. So I actually made my "prediction" based on the worst flood scenario in 50 years for that dams. What happens is the flood is a kind of the worst flood scenario in 1000 years? If it happens now I will open the sluice gates to release only the margin of flood waters. The dams will be allowed to keep the amount of flood waters associated the biggest flood in 50 years. For example if the biggest in 50 years for Bhumibol is equivalent to 3billion cubic meters of rainfalls that fall in 7 days and the biggest flood in 1000 years is 4 billion cubic meters of rainfalls that fall in 7 days, then I release 1 billion cubic meters of water says in 7 days too. I will keep the remaining .3 billion cubic meters.

Sounds not that difficult right? Somehow water management authorities in Thailand are badly miss this crucial point. Poor Thailand... that THB 350 billion is not the substitution of the fundamental of flood as described above ....

I don't get it. How they manage water without managing floods? Water management it about getting the most of available water within one catchment and utilize it the way that makes sense to us. It turns out that at least between 30-60% of waters come during flood seasons. If they don't manage floods then they only able to get 30-70% of the available water resource.

BKK raises sluice gates to help disperse water mass in Pathumthani

BANGKOK, 9 October 2013 (NNT) – Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra on Tuesday ordered sluice gates to be raised higher to release water from Pathumthani to the north of Bangkok, in order to help disperse the water mass into the sea.

M.R. Sukhumbhand on Tuesday inspected the water levels at the Song Sai Tai canal, the Song Sam Wa canal, and the Saen Saeb canal in the capital city, and said afterwards that the water level at one of the sluice gates was below critical level. Thus, he ordered the gate to be raised to 30 centimeters from 10 centimeters previously. This was done to help absorb water flow from Pathumthani province as well as some outlying areas of Bangkok.

According to the Governor, the water levels near 25 riverside communities, most of which are located along sections of the Chao Phraya river that have not been reinforced with water barriers, remain under constant monitoring by City Hall officials.

-- NNT 2013-10-09

That sluices gates are deadly dengerous. They can't be opened based on adhoc decision. Otherwise they can be the major sources of flood waters.

"They should be prepared," he said, pointing out that the Pasak Jolasid Dam needed to discharge a huge amount of water every day because its was already 110 per cent full.

​How can anything be 110% full, especially when talking about a dam? They couldn't release water before, very similar to the floods in Sisaket and sorrounding areas, caused by "overfull dams" in Phusing and Khuk Khan.

When will they wake up? We've just lost almost all, god damned. That has changed our lives, damaged our relationship and there's no light at the end of the tunnel. I hope not too many will be victims as we are.-

Very possible. A flood control dam normally can be filled up to 25% above its rated capacity. I think Pasak Jolasid dam was designed with the same spec. If it is the case 110% filling capacity should not demand any additional water release other than its natural spillage. If it was not designed with such spec, I'm afraid that the dam was wrongly designed. In this case this dam might be one of the main contributers to the occurence of floods in future.

SERIOUS WARNING: If you live in Navanakorn or Phatumthani, please prepare to move things up stairs, and be prepared to take them up quickly.!

I have it on "very good authority" (Governor assistant of Khlong Luang) that Par Sak Dam in Lopburi is going to be opened up!!!!

The decision was made in a meeting today.

Khlong Luang will receive the water first, as it has all attributaries and canals that run from that dam, via Ayuthayya and Wang Noi.

However, Khlong Luang is at higher land level than Navanakorn, and lower areas of Phatum, so the water will drain down to the western side of Payonyothin Rd.

Please take heed.

K, Sunisa.

Wow! This is big news!

Will this have a knock-on effect for Bangkok?

CAN ANYONE CONFIRM OR REFUTE THIS, PLEASE???

Is this how we will catch the news???

When will this happen and how far will the flooding spread?

Pahonyothin is a major artery....is this possible???

Will it reach Pahonyothin 42....???

I confirm the information given to me this afternoon as 100% completely reliable.

I am moving my belongings upstairs already. I confirm 100% that Par Sak Dam is being opened, before it collapses.

I live in Khlong Luang, and my secretary is wife of the Governor's chief assistant.

I, or they, have no idea of the eventualities, or how far and at what heights the waters will arrive, but they are coming.

That's is all I still know. I have asked when the dam will be opened, but I was advised to start moving my things upstairs today, of course - with no answer.

K. Sunisa.

That is very scary. Pray for the best for all.

Fire fighting approach doesn't work when it comes dealing with floods. Flood management, mitigation and control is a close loop decision making. The "end of the horizon flood scenario" shall be determined first before putting any structure and control strategy to meet "end of the horizon flood scenario". Or to make it simple start with end in mind....

If water related authorities in Thailand fail miserably again and again in future, remember what I have written here. "End of the horizon flood scenario" has to be determined first or any attemt to deal with it will end tragic failure.

Dams seldom reduce flooding over long periods as at some point they have to release water - this is far more dramatic than the natural flow of water.

It depends what the dams are good at and how they make good use of them. Bhumibol dam for example can store greater than one year average rainfall if its storage the draw down plan is well managed. What chance that you can think of to get the total accumulation of rainfall & runoff in 30 days that is equal to accumulation of rainfall & runoff in 365 days? Note that it is possible scenario..but to be more specific what is the probability? I would say smaller than than 1 in 200 years. So Bhumibol dam is in better position to keep most of its inflow during Oct -Nov every year with probability that it is going to fail as small as 1/200.

Bhumibol dam is good to stop surging of flow as high as 3billion cubic meter that might fall in 7 days, at the right time. Such flow if not mitigate will contribute close to 5000m3/s additional discharge to the Chao Pharaya. Peak discharge of the Chao Pharaya in 2011 was just about 4900m3/s...

Over the last few weeks the dams accumulated close to 2 billion cubic meter. I really hope the dam took most of it since it is in position to take at least 4 billion cubic meter more

Nonsense - any dam has a limit and a purpose if that limit is reached - then water has to be released. Most of the flooding is caused because the estimates for rainfall extremes are being exceeded - they frequently don't take into account the deforestation that occurs before during and after construction. Government figures are potentially hugely unreliable as those compiling them all have axes to grind. n the long term most dams fail in their declared purpose due to poor planning and calculations that are political rather than scientific and the margins of error ae proved increasingly to be insufficient.​

it is unfortunate that many fail to look beyond "official" government figures for these structures and fail to take in the broader ramifications they may have on the environment.

True. All dams have their storage limits. And so do flood sizes. Moreover with dams flood flow can be averaged up to ensure peak discharge can be suppressed.

Dams seldom reduce flooding over long periods as at some point they have to release water - this is far more dramatic than the natural flow of water.

It depends what the dams are good at and how they make good use of them. Bhumibol dam for example can store greater than one year average rainfall if its storage the draw down plan is well managed. What chance that you can think of to get the total accumulation of rainfall & runoff in 30 days that is equal to accumulation of rainfall & runoff in 365 days? Note that it is possible scenario..but to be more specific what is the probability? I would say smaller than than 1 in 200 years. So Bhumibol dam is in better position to keep most of its inflow during Oct -Nov every year with probability that it is going to fail as small as 1/200.

Bhumibol dam is good to stop surging of flow as high as 3billion cubic meter that might fall in 7 days, at the right time. Such flow if not mitigate will contribute close to 5000m3/s additional discharge to the Chao Pharaya. Peak discharge of the Chao Pharaya in 2011 was just about 4900m3/s...

Over the last few weeks the dams accumulated close to 2 billion cubic meter. I really hope the dam took most of it since it is in position to take at least 4 billion cubic meter more

Worst flooding in 26 years - girl, 10, swept away in Prachin Buri

Am I missing something here ?

Are you suggesting the Mae Wong dam or any other dames would have prevented this??

I know less about this dam. If the dam is flood control dam then the worst flood in 26 years could never able to come close of beating it assuming the dam was designed with the lowest spec for flood control. Normally a flood control dam is designed to take on the biggest flood in 50 year.

Not sure if this has been posted before but here it is anyways.. http://floodinfo.rid.go.th/index_en.html

The flow rate info and charts are quite interesting..

Tq. Bhumibol & Sirkit dam, they have done what should be done. The discharges are kept low. That should be the way.

So now it is 37 provinces (24 previously listed 'and, already flooded' plus another 13 added yesterday) That's 37 in total.

Not bad out of the 76 provinces in the realm, in fact only 48.7%

Well done "who ever is responsible" You should all be proud of your selves

If you can interview water "particles" in the photo asking where they came from I'm afraid 50% of them will answer they were from dams.

If that was the case they would not have opened the big dams.. then they would save everyone. But there was a small risk the big dams would not hold enough... so they rather have moderate flooding and no chance of big flooding then dry or a real big flooding.

You are right. That is what has been done. But it did not have to be that way. At least not since the last 3 weeks and up to today. They have to try to protect everybody that deserve such protection from floods until they know without any reasonable doubt flooding the minority is a must to save the majority. They have to have the system to know when such call has to be made and by whom.

The major problem is....beleive me that I can't be wrong with this one.....the authorities are unclear about what size of flood they are going to deal with. They think they can take whatever to come but they are dead wrong. While trying to meet the objective that cannot be achieved some flood plains will be inundated.. Colleteral damaged as some like to call it.

No. It should not be that way. It doesn't make sense to flood 2million people once for every two years since in 10 years the number of persons affected will become 12 million too. It took 50 years for a flood with the size of the 2011 floods to trouble 12 millions people. Now It takes less than 15 years to get the same outcome with the way the authorities deal with floods in Thailand.

I read your post.. and earlier in the topic i credit you and let people read your posts. Just repeating what you said and I read that the dams were not full at all so they could have stopped it for a while but they did not.

Anyway its bloody annoying, but I know I wont be hit only a 2011 kind of flood will hit me. But i got scared again because of the lack of information until i found the site bangkok pundit with good figures about the flooding. But once flooded its always in the back of your head. I don't mind getting flooded once every 50 or 20 years.. if it was in 3 to 5 year cycles id move for sure.

I did buy an expensive pair of waders after 2011... was not sure at that time and i knew after being flooded that they are worth their price in gold.

Thank you mate. I have read Bangkok Pundit quite often. Some of my statements made possible with the info from that site. Bangkok Pundit may not be water management and flood control expert but it tries to tell its readers something within it knowledge to do so. Very fair reporting too.

In Prachinburi at l;east, many places are flooding that never used to, so forget the "shouldn't have built there" bit.

Local government failed to open sluice gates when they should have, and their mismanagement is directly at fault. Didn't need a ton of money, just strong leadership and some sense.

Probably wanted to save the water for later for the rice farmers.

I hear they are even now still discharging water from the big dams (not connected to Prachinburi) but to the chao praya even though its not needed intensifying floods as now they are worried that it might not hold it. They really have no idea what they are doing.

Its all about saving Bangkok first the rest can wait

If that was the case they would not have opened the big dams.. then they would save everyone. But there was a small risk the big dams would not hold enough... so they rather have moderate flooding and no chance of big flooding then dry or a real big flooding.

You are right. That is what has been done. But it did not have to be that way. At least not since the last 3 weeks and up to today. They have to try to protect everybody that deserve such protection from floods until they know without any reasonable doubt flooding the minority is a must to save the majority. They have to have the system to know when such call has to be made and by whom.

The major problem is....beleive me that I can't be wrong with this one.....the authorities are unclear about what size of flood they are going to deal with. They think they can take whatever to come but they are dead wrong. While trying to meet the objective that cannot be achieved some flood plains will be inundated.. Colleteral damaged as some like to call it.

No. It should not be that way. It doesn't make sense to flood 2million people once for every two years since in 10 years the number of persons affected will become 12 million too. It took 50 years for a flood with the size of the 2011 floods to trouble 12 millions people. Now It takes less than 15 years to get the same outcome with the way the authorities deal with floods in Thailand.

The inner circle is salivating over the ancient forest to be salvaged ahead of construction; not to mention graft from the contracts. After it is built, the game poachers only have to wait just outside the 'protected' areas for the game to flee the rising waters right into their traps/snares. From what I have read, this dam will have a negligible effect on flood-prone areas.

Simply because they don't operate them correctly. By now they should build up levels for the two dams in the North by controlling discharges at least during major downpours to prevent both flash floods and minor floods.

The two flows namely discharges from dams and runoff shall not be allowed to meet at the same time along the river path. Otherwise the final outcome will be flood. Dams can be used to hold most of the major runoff temporarily. This is very fundamental issue. But then they fail miserably. Obviously Thailand gets miserable result.

Looking the way the authorities manage dams in Thailand my frankly advice is they better don't build it. As I mentioned before dams can be double edged sword. They are against the floods if they are correctly operated and managed and with the floods if they are poorly operated and managed.

If this country were prone to earthquakes, many people on this blog would blame it on the PTP/Thaksin/Yingluck.

Floods here are going to keep happening. There isn't enough money in all of Asean to construct a Netherlands-style flood control system.

It won't be that expensive... The key strategy is "control and manage" the weakest components that made up flood "construction" equation........As I mentioned above three "ingredients" have to come together to make up a flood.... Take one link out...then the flood equation will become incomplete. This is like to prevent fire.... Take one element out of three the fire won't start.

It's completely idiotic to expect Asia and Thailand to become flood free, here's a photo taken on the Mekong in June........

The high water mark was at least 1.6 metres above the June median, I cannot begin to estimate how much rainfall would be required to raise the river to that level.

Here's a photo of the Mae Sai river in June also.........5.00pm.

Next morning after a 2 hour storm, 8.00am

You can see the tree archway from the first photo has basically disappeared.

The water volume is immense, Mother Nature is struggling as she has to keep up with the concrete jungles and deforestation. Just accept that many places in Thailand are built on a flood plain and stop moaning like dribbling kids.

Every time a new house is built, a new road constructed, it adds to the problem, it's as simple as that.....and as I said yesterday......the Thais keep saying,

"Bad for the towns, good for the fields", and........

"What we need to do to prevent flooding, we don't want to do, we don't want dams everywhere, you farangs just need to get over it".

They're right, get over it. Thailand floods annually, whoop de whoo, shock news eh?

Most likely..it is not so much about rains.... Let me tell you that if Bhumibol and Sirkit hydro electric power plant are operating at their maximum capacity the combined dischagre is could be as high as 4 hours heavy downpour that you have seen. Now what happen if the run the plants the same way every single day over the last one month? It is not too hard for every body to predict.....Even with the abcent of rain the water level of the Chao Pharaya down to the south within 50-100km will be approaching the river banks limit.

You need three ingredients to "construct" a flood = High water level of river + heavy downpour over large catchment areas+ excessive stream flow. Prolong excessive releases of dams will make up two of the three "ingredients", namely high water level and excessive stream flow. Therefore the only missing "ingredient" will be heavy downpour.... Once the last "ingredient" is present therefore a flood will be sucessfully "constructed"...

I put my bet that there is no coordinated dams releases done by the authorities in Thailand. What they are doing at the moment is ad hoc approach without any clear objective about what they want to achieve. They just do it to show they do something helpful and hopefully the floods recede. That enables them to take credit. If they fail then they put the blame on rainfalls...

As I mentioned a few times in the past... There is no rational to release greater than average discharges from Bhumibol and Sirkit dams since the last 3 weeks...If they did they reduce the function of the two dams by 50%, since the main functions of the dams are to discharge water during drought and to hold and keep water during flood. They have released a lot during the last drough season.... If they still release it during flood season then what actually the dams are good at?

I can see from 1000km++ away what the authorities have done is not so much helpful. There is little element of "control". Many elements of hope and face saving.

In my humble opinion, Thailand really needs help. I hope she realize this by now. For her own good.

The existing dams do not hold 80% of the rainfall for the whole of Thailand as one TV poster has stated. In 2011, much of the rain fell in the Yom River basin, most of the existing dams did not receive excessive storm flows. A major dam was recommend to be built to regulate the flow of Yom River under the King's Master Plan, put forward by J.I.C.A., 30 years ago. Because of aggressive action by locals and so called environmentalists, there is still no dam to control major flows coming from the Yom river catchment area. Until this dam is completed they will not control the excessive flows during prolonged monsoon conditions. When Plodprasop says that the overall flood situation is not worrisome, he means the following:

1. His constituency is unaffected. 2. His home is not affected. 3. His brother has opened a boat factory

Hi,

Just go to Bangkok pundit that is where i got my information from there they state how much water these dams hold. I am not trying to make Plop look good here. I am quite anti him and the PTP but as someone who was affected by the last flood bad its hard to get any accurate news.

I liked to contribute so those that could get affected could get some good news. i know that now I am a bit more relaxed.. its not good being on edge based on incomplete news.

I am a consultant in Water and Waste Management. I have the advantage I have been involved in various studies over the last 30 years and have given presentations to the Government officials, and various organisations including American Chamber of Commerce. We had to make a study for many foreign companies, who at the time of the floods needed accurate information on which to base their decision to move their factories to another Country or to stay in Thailand. My study tracks the flooding back to the 17th Century when the Capital was moved from Ayutthaya to Thonburi because of flooding. It was then moved across the river to its present position due to flooding, and it is still flooding. I also was involved in writing the Bangkok Solid Waste Master Plan so I know that the statistics given by politicians in Thailand are mostly inaccurate. The Government web site stops reporting daily figures for air pollution for instance when the levels exceed International Standards. During the last floods the government refused to give permission from the U.S. to carry out accurate meteorological studies using aircraft to have been based in Sattahip.

I wonder how they operate the 150MW pump storage turbine in the North. The capacity of that turbine can alter flood characteristic at its downstream if it is not correctly operated.

Flood control for beginners

(1) You don't assesst the current flood scenario without using it to strategize flood control operations-Judging about the current and the future floods alone won't do the any good

(2) You can't destroy flood waters. They are expected to be there, flowing from upper ground to lower ground, eventually to an open sea.

(3) Flood managenent and control are about strategizing your flood managenent and control structures so that you can hold temporary the flood waters that can be held and get ready to deal with flood waters that cannot be held.

(4) Main KPIs for flood management and control are two. Firstly how fast you can discharge the flood waters to the open sea and secondly such release is done as far as possible without violating any flood level limit set at the downstream. The are not done based on how much money to invest for new structures and how many statements that you can make about floods.

You see...if you can follow the that 1-4 above closely very little reason you have to worry about what comes next as far as operaional point of view is concern. Ultimate consideration is what your structures could do and how to make them to do what they could rather than what the coming storms could...

Based on item (3) in context the current floods in Thailand- what is the rational to allow excessive releases from upstream dams (Bhumibol and Sirkit) that can cause floods downstream? See KPI No 2 above. Note that those two dams water levels were very low to a point that the biggest flood in 200 years won't be able to bring their levels to the top. My prediction is 98% chances that by 15th November 2013, the dams have combined unfilled storage at least 2 billion cubic meter.

No. I didn't say the authorities opted the wrong flood control strategy. I have no right to make that jugdement. In fact I have predicted this strategy would have been used about two years ago since I could predict their tendency to react after the 2011 floods. I used to be in their position about 20 years ago. What I'm trying to say is they should put all the avialble options on the table before selecting which one to be chosen.

Assuming all the flood control infrastructures in the Chao Pharaya is good "to take on the biggest flood in 50 years without area gets flood". I don't know the exact figure for Thailand. Your authorities should know. This the the first thing to resolve before anything else. If they don't tell you then I take as they don't know themselves.

Which such strength they have there are two options to go about. The first option is to strategize flood return probability for the dams in the north to take 1- in- 200 years flood return probability. That makes flood return probability in the south to become 1-in -4 years, by default. By doing this major floods like the 2011 has return period 1-in-200 years. But them minor floods as you have seen over the last two years will become a norm. The second option is to allow all areas to share equal 1-in-50 year flood return probability.

My important point is whether they have opted the first strategy out of knowledge that the second option does exist or they just made the option randomly?

its always hard to know if they tell the truth or not ...... alt=whistling.gif width=19 height=18>

They rare know, and hardly even tell the truth, because they don't know.

I think you are not far from the truth. I'm not joking.

Those two dams in the north shall not make excessive releases. Otherwise Thialnd is going to see many small floods like this in return for less frequent occurence of major floods.

Eastern Bangkok susceptible to flood, following release of huge volumes of water from dams in the North, Bangkok Gov. Sukhumbhand warned /The Nation

Govt rushing to dig drainage canals around Bangkok to tackle potential floods /The Nation

I can't see any reason for excessive releases from dams in the North. I mean Bhumibol & Sirkit. At least not now. Anyway I have predicted this approach will be used eventually long ago. The reason is simple. The authrorities in water management and flood control are really unclear about what to expect.

As far as I can see they have not expected anything. They just try to potray as if the are doing something positive.

those two dams are still in a constant state of filling from runoff from the north and east. This is with the rain not falling directly on the dams, they rise fast with direct rainfall plus runoff. two weeks of rain can make a huge dent in that 10 billion cubic meters. It could be down to 6 billion even before the next bad rainstorm.

For example, rained here last night for 12 hours straight, that means quite a large weather system, meaning it is covering a large area of land mass... its all on its way down...

You need to realize that the water that travels down to BKK is still on the move and is still being topped up daily. Even if the rain stops falling, the runoff still works its way south for up to 3 or 4 weeks after.

Exactly. That is why somebody has to educate the water management authorities that there is such word called "coordinated releases". The dams are only made up 50% of the requirements for flood management and control. "Coordinated dam releases" will make another 48%.