ResX

"Senior irrigation official ML Anumas Thongthaem, however, said such high capacity was natural and would not effect high-lying areas in the province, especially in highly popular Pak Thong Chai districts. The Lam Phra Phloeng 1 reservoir is almost 100 per cent full and is releasing a high volume of water into Lam Phra Phloeng 2 reservoir, which is now 93 per cent full."

Great for those in high-lying areas ...

but this also means those in low lying areas are screwed

This guy is a genious, like saying "if you are on top of everest, you will not got flooded"

Pray the peak is over. Otherwise it is going to be another painful year for those who stay in the central region and some areas near BKK. Some areas in center region are almost left defenceless by now. If good luck is not with Thailand, even dams can turn out to be the most efficient flood making machines. Over filled dams are going to work against the will of many population in the center region.

Two years ago korat went under, last year bangkok.

Is it impossible to not sacrifice one or the other with this system of dams?

If you tell me the total strorage of dams in the central region I think I can work something. Whether Thailand has adequate dams in the center region or not, overall evaluation so far about flood mitigation and control performance, strategy and execution, I think the score is less than 40% out of 100% possible score. This is the score base on my evaluation. Given a year grace period with TBH 350billion at their perusal, I think they should have done it better than this.

It is about a 5-6 weeks to go. Some of the dams at the central region have been beaten dearly. Obvious this time is a lot better than last year where the two monsters in the north had been beaten almost two months before the peak period. For this year as I mentioned many times, too much emphasized on "the dug in defence" in the north may help flood waters from the north from reaching central region prematurely, but it won't help dams in central region to be better prepared.

Something doesn't add up here. I suppose 150 mm rainfall as he mentioned belong to cumulative value over 24 hours. It can't be hourly cumulative. It is pretty to high to assume that way taking the fact that annual average rainfall for Thailand is between 1500-1900 mm. The problem is how a 60 mm canal capacity can drain out 24-hour cumulative rainfall of 150 mm in 4 hours ? Furthermore it has been proven the canal can't do it a few days ago.

If you assume you have fortified your defence aginst floods this year, let me tell you the weakest link that you have. Central region. There is where the battle will be deadly fought this year and you are at the very big disadvantages. It means BKK is almost for sure has to take the burden of losing it.

Over the last one year too much attention was put to the defence system in the north. The odd that the floods could beat the north defence, by today, is about 1 in 2000. This odd will become bigger by day depends upon the reserve storages of those two dams in the north. The lower the reserves the higher the odd the dams will be beaten.

I would say overwhelming odd in favour of the two dams in the north was achieved by sacrificing the defence capabillity of the dams in the central region to prepare themselves for the same battle. The odd that central region can be beaten this year probably >25%. In flood control terminology, this odd is very big.

I might be wrong with the draw down plans for the dams in the central region. One thing for certain is little was mentioned about draw down plans for dams in central as if they are not as equal important. At least such plans were not treated equally important as the plans for the dams in the north.

In the north, you can assume you will win the one sided fight this year. In central most likely you are going to be beaten dearly. Overall, you can't be beaten as bad as you were in the 2011. The most likely scenario is the level of casualty is about 1/10th of the last year's level.

Here we go again, so much for the thing "There will be no floods in Bangkok"

I HAD that feeling all along that October is going to be NASTY The question will be by how much of a degree, Rangsit and Nontaburi, Bang Bua Thong will suffer yet again. My girl-friend is living in Rangsit and part of my relative circle in Bang Bua Thong. I helped them out in deep waters last year, and the day after they found crocodile in my uncle's village in BAng Bua Thong, LOL....

.... that means I was lucky, we were not being eaten the following day, LOL....

I live in Bang Bua Thong, a bit outside on slightly higher ground. I had 25 cm water in the house and 60-70cm in the streets. However right now i don't worry as much as last year. The flooding is totally different its on the other side. Also Ayuttaya isnt flooded as much as before. As long as the river isnt too high we will be ok here.

I just dont trust the government anymore, bought a pair of waders and keep an eye on other villages that got flooded before us. That is the only way to do it, last year the water came slow it will do the same again.

Plenty of time to respond, the only thing is you could put it all up higher and the flood never reaches you. But if other villages flood that were flooded last year you can be sure your next.

If you live downstream to those two monster dams in the north than you should worry less this year. I would say at least 30% of the flood waters that came out of Nakhon Sawan last year originated from emergency released from those two dams. During last year's floods the dams released excessive water under duress. For this year it is very unlikely the dams will have to face the same scenario like last year. The odd, by today, is less than 1/3000 the dams to face similar scenario like last year. Having said that I would say that you were/are going to see the number of flash floods is going to increase. This is collateral damage that they have opted to take when they decided to do with the flood defensive and mitigation strategy as they are currently executing. I hope they aware about this consequence, i.e. more flash floods in return for very low risk of having the big one.

With due respect, here is my wise advice. Dams alone don't solve your flood problem. Your correct operation strategy and dams do. First thing first. You need to look for the correct operation strategy before building up dams.

The Chao Phraya is pretty small to take all the emergency releases from dams. The more dams you have the higher flood peak discharge if the dams have to release water under "duress". Yes, that was partly happened in 2011 floods.

I thought the Chao Phraya should be big enough to take the delayed water release from last year's inflow and inflow for the current year. But you proved me wrong by looking at the number of occurence of flash floods that never becomes less. Or you just don't know exactly how to develop the right multiple dams water releases strategy during flood and during draw down period? If this is the case then your new constructed dam will become counter productive as far as flood mitigation and control in concern.

Any explaination about floods of the Chao Phraya without putting the operational strategy of those two dams in the north as part of the overall flood control equations will fail miserably to reach the acurate conclusion. I mean it is impossible to come up with even a half acurate explaination.

Any solution for flood control for the Chao Phraya without looking at the valid operational strategy for those two dams in the north and a mean to store at least 4 billion cubic meters of flood waters at the central of the Chao Phraya will fail miserably too to get the desired result. That means those 500 boats can't replace these two important issues.

For this year, the operational strategy for those two dams in the north can score 50% mark. Full mark is 100%. For last year the score was 0% for both. 50% mark means it is very unlikely you are going to see the flood flow intensity as big as the last year's peak flood flow intensity in BKK, but you should expect to see many localized floods throughout a year. I have projected this likely scenario in one of my posts as early as in January this year.

The key issue about those two dams is they can alter the natural flow of the Chao Phraya over a medium term says 7 days to one year. The dams can make the biggest floods in 50 years disappear just like that. This is a good news. Unfortunately the dams also can make 12-month average flow of 400 cubic meter per second to become 1,000 cubic meter per second. What can you expect what the localized storm waters could do to the Chao Phraya banks if it happens when the CP is discharging 1,000 cubic meter per second? Yes. Chances that such storm will vioate the CP banks are bigger than as if the CP is discharging its natural average flow, says at 400 cubic meter per second.

I have been watching the river level here in Singburi very carefully and it is still just a shade over 10m.(this morning)

I have only been living here for 3 years but in the last two the river has at this time of the year been around 13m

That means the river is about 3m below last years flood level and still 1m below the natural river bank level (no flooding here)

Was thinking that what we have now is probably about normal river level for the wet season although I have no proof of this.

If this is correct why is there so much flooding in so many places at this time?

Has the flood protection work been put in the wrong place or is there some other reason?

Any explaination about floods of the Chao Phraya without putting the operational strategy of those two dams in the north as part of the overall flood control equations will fail miserably to reach the acurate conclusion. I mean it is impossible to come up with even a half acurate explaination.

Any solution for flood control for the Chao Phraya without looking at the valid operational strategy for those two dams in the north and a mean to store at least 4 billion cubic meters of flood waters at the central of the Chao Phraya will fail miserably too to get the desired result. That means those 500 boats can't replace these two important issues.

For this year, the operational strategy for those two dams in the north can score 50% mark. Full mark is 100%. For last year the score was 0% for both. 50% mark means it is very unlikely you are going to see the flood flow intensity as big as the last year's peak flood flow intensity in BKK, but you should expect to see many localized floods throughout a year. I have projected this likely scenario in one of my posts as early as in January this year.

The key issue about those two dams is they can alter the natural flow of the Chao Phraya over a medium term says 7 days to one year. The dams can make the biggest floods in 50 years dissapear just like that. This is a good news. Unfortunately the dams also can make 12-month average flow of 400 cubic meter per second to become 1,000 cubic meter per second. What can you expect what the localized storm waters could do to the Chao Phraya banks if it happens when the CP is dischargung 1,000 cubic meter per second? Yes. Chances that such storm to vioate the CP banks are bigger than as if the CP is discharging its natural average flow 400 cubic meter per second.

Actually you can if you understand the reasons that cause the floods. If they release 100 million cubic meter per day from those two dams in the north over a period longer than a week, then the average discharge of Chao Pharaya contribute by these two dams is 1,157 cubic meters per second. Long term average inflow for these two dam is far less than 400 cubic meters per second. If the dams discharging 4 folds higher than their natural averages, what is so difficult to predict what the localized storm waters can do to the already 50% filled Chao Pharaya? If the discharges from dams in the north accupy 50% of the natural retention capacity of rhe Chao Pharaya for sustainable long duration, then there are very realistic chances localized storm waters at a few critical areas will breach both river banks.

Based on my reasearch over past one week, I come to know that the way the two dams in the north was operated badly (negatively) altered medium term average flow of the Chao Pharaya. As a result the the river has less capable to take natural flood flows. The ultimate outcome is the intensity, duration and frequency of flash floods will become more negative.

This is not about the dams. This is about the chosen operational strategy.

Love this - Yingluck maintains govt on target in preparations for the rainy season

The season is well underway and nearly over - another month.

Also - To prevent a repeat of the Sukhothai flood last week, the Royal Irrigation Department would install water level gauges in areas prone to disasters.

How can a gauge 'prevent' a flood even if they are installed?

You have to love Thai journalism...

She failed to complete her general idea. The idea is by knowing water levels at various bottle necks dam operators can used them to decide the safe level of dam releases.

But then I have two related comments. (1) Why only now? That mean over the last 30 years or so dams operators decided to lift the sluice gates without knowing the consequences of their actions. That enforced my suspicion that sluice gates operators made water release decision without knowing the consequences. (2) Knowing water levels alone only a part of the requirements to make the correct water release desion. Many more data and information are required to make it right.

My father in law in the lower north east is begging for rain for his rice fields----

His rational can be easily understood. I don't think he begged for flood.

@rilalex

The warning system that you are talking about would be great. But that would be the same as admitting they can't handle something. They kept saying there would be no flooding just to safe face.

I was in the same boat as you government telling us no flooding then only a lil bit and then it was too late. This time i just rely on myself i will be checking upstream / higher places where the water came from last time. If they get flooded i have a few days to make preparations.

I doubt we can trust this government for any good information that might embarrass them. I mean the white lie minister is part of this government he was just stupid enough to admit it The others probably practice the same thing but wont admit it.

If you stay beside the Chao Pharaya dowstream to either Bhumibol or Sirkit or both, be sensitive to water releases via their sluice gates. It sholud be zero by now. But they (Plant owners / the authorities) might opt for hedging the future major flood risk by purposely creating many small floods now. To me, base on the current storage levels for both dams such strategy is counter productive. Unless they are unclear about what they are going to achieve. I tend to believe this is the case. Sorry if I'm wrong.

I would say as long as the gates are kept closed, >98% chances you are not going to be flooded this year.

One of the major problems with Flooding and run-off in BKK is that in the fifties and sixties , in an effort to modernise , they filled in all the drains to make roads to accomodate the increasing cars and trucks ( and also to control mosquitoes) . These drains were called Klongs .

As far as I can see even a few parts of Bhumibol dam design seems to be outdated to fulfill the current flood control and mitigation requirements. This is among the first thing they should learn not later than 2006. The 2011 floods to certain extent is the repetative of the 2006 flood but in more extreme manner since the same problem with Bhumibol dam had not been effecrively addressed. For Sirkit dam, I hold back my opion for time being.

Hopefully I can spare time to explain further next time.

I was in the same boat as you

Don't remember seeing a fellow pasty-skinned big-nose. Where were you sat? Front or back?

Seriously though, sorry for what you lost and what you endured. Hope your area stays dry this year. Nonthaburi right?

Yes Nothaburi so just watch me if you are down stream from that. If i get flooded its probably serious.Our village never flooded in 40 years or so, (before that no village). But i will check things myself this year. By doing so i got enough time to make real preparations.

If you have not been flooded in 2006 it is quite unlikely you are mot going to be flooded this year. If you do, I tend to beleive it is articially done rather (due to poor coordination of dams releases) than natural flood. I don't think they have acute problem this year to a point that they have to make decisions under duress, unlike last year.

Two things that worth to highlight

1. Install water level gauges won't solve flood problem. Their readings shall be used by the dams in the north toi decide safe releases. I thought this has been done 30 years. In that case how operators determined safe discharges via sluice gates + plants during flood control operation last year?

2. It is a big and very-very big mistake if dams in the north discharge water greater than 30% of their rated discharge capacities (Excluding sluice gates discharge capacities). Significant amount of flood waters in 2011 contributed by failure of relevent authorities to understand this fundamental. It doesn't seem that they have learned....

The idea of preparing retention areas for major floods is not a bad idea. Thailand has small problem with those two dams in the north, although there are things that can be improved. I hope I have time to deliberate this in future. But for the moment she has to find mean to store at least 3-4 billion cubic meters of flood waters in the central.

They've already done and completed this water retention project . . . the 2 x areas allocated for this are called Ayudyha and Sukhothai . . .

Ohh... No wonder. Too bad. If I were her I should have picked paddy fields instead.

The best is yet to come.

The gates that control one of the rivers that runs through Pabong just outside Chaing Mai has been closed to a point you can walk across the river bed.I assume this is an attempt to reduce the flow to the south but unfortunately this is what happened last year meaning the water is being stored further north. If once again the amount of water stored reaches danger level and has to be released it will be a repeat of 2011. Seeing as many parts are already flooded it could possibly be worse.

The almost worst case scenario is the amount of probematic flood waters equal to the last year's flood minus 7billion cubic meters. If we use published figure for problematic flood waters is 15 billion cubic meters, then we are looking for about 8 billion cubic meters of flood water, assuming flood intensity and duration exactly equal to the 2011 floods.

By now Thailand should have all the information required and should have the final idea about how to go about it. One more thing is reservoir under constuction should have been protected by diversion tunnel. It is quite strange to know trhis is not the case for this reservoir.

Decades of mismanagement, can't be resolved within a year or two.

The water management system in Thailand is designed for storage against droughts. No one planned for floods.

Sent from my XT910 using Thaivisa Connect App

Allocate the areas for water retention, with a bit of good luck, can be done for less than two years. It much depends of geology of the selected sites. I think to build up structures can be completed within at most 2 years. To build up dams will take longer time. At least 4 years. At most 7 years.

To all those stupid enough to blaim Yingluck, it has always been happening and always will until Bangkok is relocated.

Yingluck cannot control nature, and nor can anyone else. However, as PM she is in charge of the government and should ensure public money is spent prudently and that effective work is carried out to minimise the damage of future flooding - dredging canals, building and strengthening embankments. She must also make sure that emergency and disaster planning is in place and that the water and irrigation management is professional and efficicent.

Do you believe she has done any of this??? The point is she is to blame for the problems in government. She is PM, the "buck stops here" etc. Of course we all know the reality.

To certan extent, yes, she can. I don't think THB 350 billion is not sufficient. I think it is pretty too much. There are a few things she could do that I can suggest for free. First thing first. The idea of preparing retention areas for major floods is not a bad idea. Thailand has small problem with those two dams in the north, although there are things that can be improved. I hope I have time to deliberate this in future. But for the moment she has to find mean to store at least 3-4 billion cubic meters of flood waters in the central. Next she has to assign experts in integrated water resouces management. Don't under estimate ability of experts to turn around the end results regarding controlling floods.

Talking about water retention areas, I were her I would have not acquire lands for this purpose. It is good enough to sign agreements with the targeted land owners to use their land when major floods occur. Her goverment shall be willing to pay compensations to land owners every single TBH that they have lost due to inundation of flood waters. Make the terms and conditions of payment luctructive enough so they will except the deal. This approach is cheaper than building up dams, very effective and economic too. The most important thing major floods at most occur not more than 5 times in 50 years. I mean she has to be sure not to pay compensation every year. Otherwise dams are better option.

Jeez, one heavy rain yesterday and outside Zeer Rangsit (and that area) were flooded along Viphawadee.

What's going on with Ayutthaya now? If flood waters from Sukhothai come through then how far are they going to go. If they get to Rangsit than it's nightmare time all over again.

I don't know for sure but I like to know what those two dams in north doing with their skuice gates? It is bad idea if they were kept opened since the last one month.

Engineering 101: if you don't inspect and maintain infrastructure; it will fail. Bridges will ultimately collapse, dams will ultimately breach, flood control structures will ultimately fail. What amazes me is that with all the money spent, they didn't start with the basics: inspect, inventory and map every existing structure; repair and reinforse where needed, then start modeling to determine what improvements will yield the best bang for the baht.

Modeling? With due respect, I think it is pretty too much for them. They have to go through the real meaning of "flood", scientifically and mathematically rather then politically defined it to their political inclination. What cause it to happen? What sequences it propogates? How to exploit the sequences with least efforts and resources so that it becomes harmless. Modeling won't help them if they are not having minimum knowledge about physical correlations the subject of interest.

A number of baiting and off-topic posts and replies have been deleted.

It's hard to get concrete information on the amount of rain. It's not going to flood......it's going to flood.....It won't ....It will.... Maybe...maybe not. It gets confusing.

I read earlier that the rainfall is 20% less than last year. 20% means little without a figure for what is normal. There are a lot of variables resulting in floods and I would feel much more comfortable if there were specialists instead of politicians releasing information.

Well to be brutally honest I'd probably not rely on reports from The Nation to base your actions on if I were you. You could have a look at this and it may ease your fears

In the below image, for 2011 you have the actual levels of rainfall in the North and Central Regions. The 2012 figures are from the Meteorological Department and is their prediction on rain over the rainy season. Both figures are in mm:

BP: Even assuming the worst-case scenario, it is not as much rain as 2011. It is not impossible we will have more rain in 2012, but there are no signs either in the first 5 months of this year or the forecast to expect suddenly for the rain to reach a new record high over the next 5 months.

In addition, we still have more capacity in the dams to take on additional water so even in the worse-case scenario this won’t necessitate the panicked release of large quantities of water in September and October 2011.

We can have discharges of water from the dams earlier in July-August, in particular, to reduce the level of intake into the dams.

Looking at all the data, there is no evidence to suggest we will have a severe flood like 2012 or even a flood approaching that level.

BP will look again at the end of August/beginning of September for an update.

http://asiancorrespo...ailand-in-2012/

So here is the update

What about the forecast for additional rain for the rest of the year?

In the below image, for 2011 you have the actual levels of rainfall in the North and Central Regions. The 2012 prediction figures are from the Meteorological Department and is their prediction on rain over the rainy season. Then to see how the Met. Department has done so far in their prediction, BP has included the actual rainfall figures for June and July 2012. All figures are in mm:

BP: The rainfall in July 2012 for the Central Region exceeded the worst-case scenario, but for the North and for both regions in June it hasn’t. In fact, in June it was was below the prediction. Of course, this suggests the weather is unpredictable, but it also means it has been up and down. For there to even have any possibility of a severe flood, there has to be consistently above normal rainfall so far. There just hasn’t been.

CONCLUSION: We still have more capacity in the dams to take on additional water so even in the worse-case scenario this won’t necessitate the panicked release of large quantities of water in September and October like we had last year. Rainfall is only slightly above normal so far this year. Looking at all the data, there is no evidence to suggest we will have a severe flood like 2011* or even a flood approaching that level.

http://asiancorrespo...t-2012-version/

The whole of both articles is worth reading and seems to be sound information.

Yup. He made reference to last year's flood. That doesn't mean no floods. I have overall conclusion similar to him. To have intensity of flood equivalent to the 2011 is far fatched. The worst case scenario for this year that I can predict for this year is about 50- 60% of the 2011 flood. The most likely scenario is about 10-20% of the last year's flood, taking into consideration that the fatal "water mismanagement" in 2011 does not appear anymore this year. If you are among the first 10-20% being hit by the floods last year, then you have all the reasons to worry by now since these published figure do not look good.

His prediction, as good as mine valid as long as Bhumibol and Sirkit dam can keep their sluice gates water tight. Once they have to go through forced releases his prediction and mine will become null and void. Once it happens, the fact that the worst case scenario depends on who operates the sluice gates and how much he knows the consequences for every 0.3m lift of the gates and the consequences for not lifting them..

The current status of Bhumipol and Sirikit Dams Brimming is completely at odds of with what was agreed with the government which is that fill would be kept below 65% of capacity until the peak risk period. I always thought that 50% would be more appropriate. So now we are at the threshold of peak risk and there is no capacity to hold back new run off! That alone suggests that the plan is failing. OMG hope I'm wrong!

You mean Bhumibol and Sirkit have already fully filled? I hope you are wrong.

Dams are the answer......this project looks valid, though Yaowalert may have a point.

People are forgetting that there have been hundreds of foreign experts pouring all over the country inspecting the affected areas and looking at government plans.

I reckon there is a will and expertise to get this right.......last year was a generational wake up call.

Dams aren't necessarily an easy answer with many areas being so flat.

That is very true.....