-
Posts
798 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Downloads
Everything posted by goatfarmer
-
Old habits die hard. Peer pressure mixed with fear of something and 'the precautionary principle' probably will probably keep mask wearing going. I just returned from Europe. Almost no one, but for a few stalwarts, was wearing a mask. I wonder why Europeans are so keen to dispense with masks, while in Thailand, they seem to be a security blanket?
-
Can’t we the public now cope with a Covid outbreak in Thailand?
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
Seven (out of 9) in my household tested positive for covid a few weeks ago, all at the same time. None of them had had it before. All were vaccinated (sino+astra). They were all sick in various degrees from mild to moderate, but all of them were back on their feet within a week and tested negative five or six days after testing positive. No one was freaked out about it, as they would have been a couple of years ago. They just treated it like any other respiratory infection and waited for it to pass, which it did. Ok, this is just an anecdote, but it tends to suggest that Covid is no longer the emergency that it was when it started. It's spreading like wildfire because there is no widespread immunity, but it is not the threat that it was last year and the year before. Slowing down the spread now is only prolonging the agony and promoting fear. The sooner we all get it and get herd immunity the better. We can then find something else to freak out about. -
Can’t we the public now cope with a Covid outbreak in Thailand?
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
Straw man. We've known for years that some diseases, like flu, can't be prevented by vaccines. -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
So if all of these questions have been addressed by climatologists and your man, Richard, is one of them, you should have a ready answer to my point. But you haven't. Instead of making a polite, rational, respectful, civilized, reply, we see, as is usual with alarmists, name calling, vague reference to an authority, ad hominem, and dummy- spitting rants. It's so ludicrous as to be almost satirical. -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
I wasn't addressing Richard Muller. You left that paragraph off without making a point. -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
Here we go. When the alarmists are challenged, it's 'hit the panic button', hurl abuse, anything but rational, civilized conversation. -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
Ok. We can make a point with confidence without spitting the dummy. -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
Difficult to take seriously such patronising conceit. "Do you really believe that the thousands upon thousands of data points captured daily won't overcome the statistical noise of the factors you've cited.?" Yes, volume does not remedy methodological flaws. -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
Good questions. 1. There is too much uncertainty to have an actionable number. There is no reliable set of data for the whole globe before the 1980s. Everything before that is patched from disparate sources. Patching introduces error. Errors compound. Even with the satellite record, the areas covered by each grid are something like 8x8sq km. Temperatures can change vastly over such distances, certainly more than 0.1C. If we want to make a global average temperature, fine, but not to 0.1C, as it currently is. Secondly, the average applies to nowhere in particular. Regions have their own climates with their own temperatures. The idea of a global average suggests a global trend. Alarmists would have us think that there is a single trend based on the uniformity of CO2 spreading in the atmosphere, but that is reductionist thinking and, as always in the case of a complex system, implausible. 2. I haven't seen any data, other than anecdotal. But the claim is plausible and easily explained by urban development. 25% of weather data collections are in cities. Urban development generates heat. Cities have been growing steadily in the last few decades. Inevitably, they will generate higher highs. -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
Well, it did say something like 0.65C. If that's not 'a bit of warming' I don't know what is? -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
So that's a yes, or a no? -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
I guess it's plausible if you have a big enough thermometer and it's properly calibrated. But we're not talking so much about the accuracy of thermometers. The issue is more one of accurately covering the globe and representing it to 0.1C, which is implausible, given the variability of temperature within short distances of a few meters. The lack of coverage in the 19th century and the 'merging' of various methods used to collect water samples back then, such as leather bags tossed over board, makes the enterprise dubious. -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
Sure. A bit of warming in the last few decades in some places. But this is an average of the globe, a dubious concept at best. It's not like a pot of water heating up on the stove, which is the way it's presented. -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
Yes, but will increasing the dye by 30% make a substantial difference? -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
If you read them critically, you'll come to the conclusion that the process of 'calibration' is just another example of magical thinking. Do you really believe it possible to determine the temperature for an interval of years, thousands of years ago, to 0.1C, from tree rings, sediment cores, coral or ice samples and then extrapolate a global average temperature to 0.1C from these few, disparate sites to the whole world? If so, you are not only conceited (in casting aspersions of 'willful(sic) ignorance' but credulous as well. -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
Why not? Alarmists would have us draw similar magical conclusions of the global temperature a century or two ago from the paltry data derived by a few random, desultory, clippers and steam ships patrolling a similar percentage of the 350m sq km of sea water that makes up the bulk of the earth's surface. -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
Nonetheless, it is a bit undignified calling someone a liar. This is the tactic employed by the alarmist mob when they disagree with you. If you disagree you must be lying because everyone knows they are right: a bit self-serving. There are more dignified ways of disagreeing with someone. -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
Fair point. Even if the claim were true for the particular satellite, there was a major change from infrared to microwave sea surface temperature measurement which meant that data had to be 'merged', or in lay language, 'fixed'. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10872-005-5782-5 Similarly, Nasa explains how its data is "... quality controlled, calibrated, remapped and merged to provide nearly Global coverage of equal-angle uniform observations." https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/metadata/landing-page/bin/iso?id=gov.noaa.ncdc:C00830 Sounds like a lot of 'fixing' of data. -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
... after it was fixed. The 1990 IPCC chart tells a far different picture. https://climateaudit.org/2012/10/09/the-afterlife-of-ipcc-1990-figure-7-1/ -
We are living in the hottest period for 125,000 years
goatfarmer replied to webfact's topic in World News
And you have data from across the globe to support such a bold claim?