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Timwin
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6 minutes ago, Canuck1966 said:
It was winter in Thailand when this started so that blows that out of the window.
It was cool for December, Jan and Feb.
It has only just started to get hot in the last week or so.
You never hear doctors or nurses say much about the road carnage either so they are not necessarily the best source of info
It was still 20-25 C in late-Jan-February when this started and that is plenty enough. A Coronavirus lives 30 times longer in 6 C than in 20 C.
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8 minutes ago, Canuck1966 said:
They are in Thai, and it's against forum rules to post from twitter or in a foreign language.
Sign up to twitter and do some research.
It is known fact coronavirus family is highly sensitive to temperature and humidity. Also what I found from Twitter:
"There is info coming directly from frogs who know doctors in good Bangkok hospitals; there hasn't been uptick."
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8 minutes ago, Canuck1966 said:
I have seen a lot on twitter as it's more anonymous
Hundreds of people sick or dead from 'pneumonia' .Then put a few here from twitter or at least quote them...
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It is the hot and humid that protects tropical countries from Coronavirus epidemic. Otherwise, scores of Thai doctors and nurses would have already spoken out one way or another. It would be all over Facebook or Twitter. Thais love to gossip and nothing stays secret for long!
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20 minutes ago, smedly said:
even if temp is somehow involved what about all the shopping centers - hotels - hospitals - airports - buses - mass transport etc that are all air conditioned and the most likely places for transmission ?
A typical coronavirus survives about 30 times longer in 6 C than in 20 C. In 30 C is mere 1-2 hours at best. That would explain why Wuhan and northern Italy got so bad, 0-10 C typical temperature Jan-Mar. The virus survived on doorknobs, guard rails, public toilets and what not for days, instead of few hours.
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Chinese tourists in Italy per year: around 2 million.
In Thailand: Over 10 million.
Thailand should be by now much worse than Italy. It is the hot&humid.
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5 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:
That is the current hypothosis, but as yet (to my limited knowledge) unproven fully.
Fucci and others have spoken about their "assumptions" of temperarture
Thailand already proves the theory. Thailand should be by now much much worse. 10-15 days ahead of northern Italy by now with all ICU beds filled and all out chaos out there. That is because much larger population exposure to Chinese people in recent months.
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15 minutes ago, Sametboy2019 said:
Where did you get this information?
The WHO say
From the evidence so far, the COVID-19 virus can be transmitted in ALL AREAS, including areas with hot and humid weather. Regardless of climate, adopt protective measures if you live in, or travel to an area reporting COVID-19. The best way to protect yourself against COVID-19 is by frequently cleaning your hands. By doing this you eliminate viruses that may be on your hands and avoid infection that could occur by then touching your eyes, mouth, and nose.
Yes, it can spread in Thailand but nowhere nearly as wildly as below 10 C as in northern Italy now. Here is one article about the coronavirus.
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In South Korea only 2-4 percent of tests have been positive (from White House live stream doctor saying last night) so 400 tests and 10 cases per day sound about right. The good news is this will not become anywhere near similar epidemic in Thailand as in Italy or Wuhan. Coronavirus is very sensitive to hot and humid. The optimum spreading temperature is 8,72 C.
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Coronavirus does not survive nowhere nearly as well in hot and humid 30 C than in below 10 C, the optimum. That is why we are not seeing Thailand becoming a new Italy or any tropical countries suffering a major epidemic. There will be cases but not in huge numbers. Community spreading is much more difficult here due to climate.
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Regular coronavirus survives 30 times longer in 6 Celcius than in 20 C with a lot of humidity. In 30 C it quickly becomes non-infectious, in matter of few hours, instead of days. That is why we are not seeing any fast spreading of this virus in Thailand or similar tropical countries.
Northern countries are screwed because they are near the optimal spreading temperature of 8,72 Celcius currently. That is why northern Italy saw that rapid spreading last and this month and soon northern European countries will experience the same.
In the summer time this will go away in the northern hemisphere but could come back next fall.
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The epidemic is shooting up in Northern Europe very fast and guess what, those countries are now at the Coronavirus optimum survival temperature zone of 5-15 Celcius.
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2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:
From your link. You're not listening to the experts:
The virus that causes Covid-19 may have a temperature sweet spot at which it spreads fastest, a new study has suggested, but experts say people should avoid falling into the trap of thinking it will react to seasonal changes in exactly the same way as other pathogens, like those that cause the common cold or influenza.
Or just cherry picking
Thailand should be another Italy or worse by now. Tens of times more Chinese tourists, well into February. Nothing like that happening. One Chinese venue is 100 meters from me, now empty but used to have 20-25 busses per night but nobody is sick around here.
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The optimum temperature for Corona is 8C/46 F. This is very bad for northern countries and then soon to southern countries like southern Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Argentina. Bad for mountain people worldwide.
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Older flu viruses do not spread well with temperatures around 30 C, probably the same for Corona. I think that is why we are not seeing an epidemic in Thailand.
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1 hour ago, DrTuner said:
Seems to match with pneumonia in general: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6901688/
Over 60's, smoking, hypertension are risk groups in that study. In China air pollution is likely a risk factor equivalent to smoking. Breathe in PM2.5 all your life and your lungs are shot, ready to be infected.
Chinese men also smoke like men in the West in the 1960's, about half of them smoking. Even without smoking the air pollution is so bad in Asian megacities that many 40-year-olds outdoor workers have lungs that of 70-year-old.
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Noooo! Not the extra thick crust! Pattaya is just breaking apart, man. You just have to suck it in and deal with it, fat boi! ???? Times are challenging...
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Another farang stopped from spending his pension in Thailand. Congratulations! Good job! No wonder the tourism industry is in the toilet and getting deeper into <deleted>.
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Wuhan's 7 crematoriums are running the ovens all the time 24/7, workload 4-5 times of that of normal day. Every available worker called to help, crews sleeping very little. Not looking good at all!
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The masks might even make this worse because so many slip it on and off below jaw and touch it all the time. Or use it for days again and again.
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This virus is really easily spread. Masks are not going to do much. They found 40 new cases in a quarantined cruise ship today in Japan. Just because one infected Hong Kong passenger was in the ship LAST WEEK and had also already left.
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The average age was for the first 99 Wuhan patients 55,5 years with standard deviation of 13,1 years. 17 went to ICU aka assisted breathing and 11 died (so far).
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19 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:There are cases of the Virus almost everywhere now, but the one place that has no reported cases is good old Pattaya, or have I missed a report or two.
Pattaya is safe. Too many other viruses competing, no room for another one ????
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41 minutes ago, DrTuner said:
They couldn't even if they wanted to, the diagnostic and health care system is swamped, I doubt they are very concerned about doing paperwork at the hospitals.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/30/asia/chinese-health-care-virus-intl-hnk/index.html
Are you doubting the Glorious Communist State?! The Chinese patients are the most healthy patients in the world!
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Thailand reports 32 new coronavirus cases, brings total to 114
in Thailand News
Posted
Thailand reported very early the first cases but did not see any mushrooming of cases. That is because the coronaviruses in general are highly temperature sensitive. The best temperature zone for spreading is 6-12 Celsius and it is a steep looking curve. With 30 C the virus dies quite quickly in most surfaces, couple of hours instead of days.
ICUs would have been overflowing two weeks before Italy easily if the spreading were as effective as in Italy.
This does not mean you should not be cautious and wash your hands especially when coming from errands and not touching your face when outside. Also do not eat with your bare fingers. You can also buy very small hand spray disinfectant pocket sprays, costs like 150 Baht per 5-6 bottles in sites like Lazada.