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rickirs

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Posts posted by rickirs

  1. TPP membership is an all or nothing trade agreement. A member nation cannot pick and choose what products or economic sectors will be freely traded and those that will continue to enjoy protective high tariffs. Thailand must decide whether to export products from high value, high revenue industries at the cost of losing competitiveness in lower value, low revenue industries. PTT will force members to realign nations to more effective global competition.

    Case in point if Thailand doesn't join:

    TPP member Mexico has called for a TPP "rule of origins" that would prohibit TPP members from sourcing products from non-TPP countries. Japan, a major player in the TPP, buys lots of automobile parts from Thailand. If the TPP's rule of origins kicks in, Japan will have to look elsewhere (Mexico?) for automobile parts suppliers and shift its investments in this sector away from Thailand. Would the loss of manufacturing Japanese auto parts be worth the cost to protect Thailand's current livestock industry?

    Deputy PM for Economic Affairs favors joining PTT.

    Japanese investors urge Thailand to join PTT to attract Japanese investment flows.

    Chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council Nopporn Thepsithar favors joining PTT.

    The Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Federation of Thai Industries and the Thai Bankers’ Association favor joining the TPP.

    Commerce vice-minister Winichai Chaemchaeng favors joining PTT.

  2. Around 30.9 million tons of cassava will likely enter the market this harvest season, slightly higher than the same period last year of 30.02 million tons.

    Like the rice and rubber farmers, they will not slow production. And oversupply will continue to depress prices.

    China's recent decision to subsidize maize (corn) instead of cassava for alcohol production may further pressure a Thai oversupply. Albeit, China has pledged it will not reduce its imports of Thai cassava.

  3. I believe a lot of cassava is imported from Cambodia. Maybe that should stop or import duty be charged.

    Thai authorities may be imposing trade barriers aimed at protecting their country’s half a million cassava-growing households, according to Cambodian trader Sam Yin. However, this might now violate the trade agreement among the ASEAN countries.

  4. Where's the money going to come from?

    regards Worgeordie

    There are several options:

    Government-to-foreign government joint venture

    Government-to-Private Investment joint venture

    100% foreign government financed

    The Thai government portion would be completely financed with 20-year treasury bonds.

    A joint venture would reduce the government's financial risk in the projects, help limit cost overruns provide for revenue sharing.

  5. given the junta's history on all environmental vs business issues, even with the sparse, sparse sparse clues in this report, it can be assumed that the rubber-stampers just passed another law that will allow the government to run roughshod over local communities and ignore any and all environmental issues that they chose.

    No need to worry about rubber-stampers for the government in the future.

    If the Meechai 2016 draft charter is endorsed, individuals and communities will not have the right to conserve a healthy environment as was provided in the 2007 Constitution. The 2007 Constitution enabled individuals and communities to petition directly to the court over health and environmental issues. In fact several government projects were stopped by court petitions. Under the 2016 draft the government is only required to perform due diligence by whatever parameters it decides and direct petition to the courts is taken away.

  6. Revenue from the tourism industry currently accounts for 10-14.5% of Thailand’s GDP compared to 2% in 2015. Foreign and local tourists generated revenues increased a year-on-year growth of 18.2% and 6.9% respectively.

    As such it appears that Kobkarn has done a great job, albeit she has unique unfettered access to government funding and a personal relationship with the junta to push her own agenda.

    However, the current growth in tourism faces some serious hazards, For example:

    Domestic Terrorism - the Erawan Shrine bombing alone cost businesses a loss of 64.3 billion baht in tourism

    International Terrorism - tourists tend to at home rather than travel to foreign destinations

    Yuan - China continues to deflate its currency somewhat forced now as an accepted global currency

    Deaths - tourist deaths in Thailand have soared 54%

    Safety - Thailand ranks 130th out of 141 nations for tourist safety and security

    Politics - the upcoming constitution referendum and elections have potential for severe public disruptions

    Airport - Suvarnabhumi Airport flight traffic is overcapacity without a third runway

    Prayut wants to replace the contracting export sector with tourism and domestic investments as the main drive for GDP growth. Domestic investments are not producing any quick results. For tourism to have any meaningful contribution to GDP growth, I estimate it will have to increase five-fold.

    Perhaps Kobkarn needs a 20-year plan.

  7. I bet the set index reach 1450 next month and 1500 in may.

    Executive Director of Finansia Syrus Securities Plc Mr. Kuntra Ladavalya Na Ayudhya recently set a target of the Thai stock index this year at 1,500 points under the condition that the government has clear investment plans in place and the annual GDP growth reaches 3%. Otherwise, he said the stock index could slip and test the support level at 1,200.

    Also recently, the World Bank said that Thailand’s growth is expected to contract from 2.5% GDP growth in 2015 to just 2.0% growth in 2016.

    Please don’t buy on the margin.

  8. worsened liquidity of SMEs ... which made industrial entrepreneurs more careful with their investment expansion

    How can this be?

    The government has been stimulating the economy:

    - Bt85 million in government funds to spur SME development

    - Government Savings Bank offers soft loans to SMEs to help them improve liquidity.
    - Bt100 billion in government soft-loans for villages

    Yet, a recent survey of entrepreneurs conducted by the Dhurakij Pundit University found that about 78% found their economic situation was unchanged or worsened.

    The government may have lost control, assuming it ever had control, over the economic wellbeing of Thailand.

  9. this move will in no way affect local market prices.

    Possibly untrue.

    Just a couple days ago Thai rice exporters said they were reluctant to export to traditional customers such as oil-rich Nigeria for fear that they may default in payments. Meanwhile, there has been a rice export slump due to a lack of government-to-government rice deals and new deals for Philippines rice imports. Some rice exporters are going out of business because of liquidity problems.

    So the only viable rice market that remains currently is Thailand.



  10. Dredge the Rang Khey marshes as a possible alternative water containment facility.

    So really no idea whether the destruction of wetlands will be beneficial.

    Fortunately, the Junta can dispense with having to perform any EIA to investigate possible destruction of wildlife supported by the marshes or ancillary impacts to groundwater systems in the area. What will remain is a potential huge garbage dump.

  11. For all the years that Pakistan has supported the Taliban as its proxy in Afganistan, it can't expect to reverse its policies without terrorists backlash. It's what terrorists do with betrayal.

    Hopefully now Pakistan can unify itself and put more faith in the Afganistan government to be a pragmatic and beneficial partner with Pakistan that Paksitan will have the courage to endure and defeat Taliban in its Northerm Territories. Pakistan now becomes the key to peace in the region.

  12. Better title -

    Thailand - China launch new youth camp to further brainwashing exchange.

    It's one of the few things China and the Prayut regime have in common.

    They do not have a common cutlure with China under Communist rule.

    Thailand should more productively lauch with the ASEAN youth camps to further cultural exchange among ASEAN countries. Then Thailand can become the Hub of Culture. With China, Thailand can only be a spoke.

  13. in other news, Now i can bump into people on the bts and STEAL ALL THEIR DATA to make fake credit cards using hardware that costs less than 3000b. (you can ask me how to make one) EVERYONE, be like me, and buy a RFID BLOCKING wallet. buy on on lazada now while they have their birthday sale.

    That's a contact chip, not RF.

    Or ...

    You can stack your RFID cards together as data becomes scrambled.

    You can order replacement cards without RIFD

    Request issuer to deactivate the RIFD

    Wrap in copper foil

  14. A Suan Dusit Poll conducted in January 2016 found that only about 23% of respondents believe the 2016 draft constitution will be endorsed.

    Recent communications on further proposals between the Four Rivers and the CDC may just drive a stake through the heart of any majority electoral support. It might be best for the Junta to simply proceed directly to endorsement with NLA majority approval and leave the Thai people out of the referendum process. It might be for their own safety.

    For the Junta to allow a referendum based on the Four River's radicalization of the 2016 draft constitution may instigate further political conflict and violence. The very situations that the military claimed motivated the coup in the first place.

  15. Recently from the World Bank, Thailand’s growth is expected to contract from 2.5% GDP growth in 2015 to just 2.0% growth in 2016.

    The contraction is due in part to continued contraction in exports, increasing household debts, flight of foreign capital, continued negative inflation, slowdown in domestic spending and loss of agricultural revenues due to the drought and collapsing global market prices. Out of work farmers and street vendors are not considered unemployed.

    The government should not feel assured of the current unemployment situation as normal. wai2.gif

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