Denizen

Will history repeat, Maybe.

Rather than being penalised for working and saving, Why not stop giving benefits to those who are not living or spending In the U.K More benefit cuts are needed, Why should we keep people that are not living In the UK?

Window tax, now bedroom tax What are you views on this?

Anyone?

If such a policy is imposed a lot of UK farangs will be forced to return to UK. I can't foresee any negative effect on Thailand for this. Probably will increase numbers in poverty in UK who might be eligible for more benefits.

Be careful what you wish for.

Personally, I think we will see the Thai baht reach around THB35 : £1 and at that point, we will either see the pound strengthen and the Thai economy weaken.

As far as the UK economy is going, theres not that much bad news around at the moment.

Europe is getting its house in some sort of new order.

America has just seen the Dow Jones reach record levels.

Reposessions are the lowest since 2008

Interest rates are at historic lows

Inflation is around 2.5% and falling

Perhaps in 3 years time, we will be back to an economic state of around 2002 in the UK.

I agree with your guess of GBP bottoming at THB 35.

However, I don't see good news for UK economy. It will take more than 3 years. The UK oil bubble has burst and oil imports will increase every year as production declines and more oil needs to be imported. The oil bubble from around 1985 to 2005 forced up GBP and caused a lot of manufacturing to die off due to high GBP rendering them uncompetitive.

My guess. 20 years to improve UK economy and get GBP back up to 40-45 to THB. GBP will never get back to 70 THB.

Things are simple. Life is simple. Experts get paid to make things seem complicated. It's how they justify their existence.

The most valuable investment asset is common sense. Many experts and educators have none.

You can't teach common sense. You can teach business and you can teach economics and you can even teach fortune telling. You cannot teach common sense.

Many people are busy reading charts, studying the past, predicting the future based on experts and their charts, when common sense would tell them to not stand in the middle of the railroad tracks in front of an oncoming train.

But if you aren't listening for, or looking for a train, you might get distracted while focusing on something else. Many people around the world are actually struck and killed by trains every year doing exactly that. How can anyone actually park or stand on tracks and not see or hear a train coming? But people do.

The few with common sense will not be listened to by those who prefer experts, or those who live in the past. Those who might listen are distracted by sensory overflow regarding what's around them today. Sometimes they are so busy panicking that they don't have time to really think. Others don't think at all and are no more unconscious after being hit by a train than they were before they were hit. They are the ones who don't ever know what hit them.

It does little good to enter a forum like this with common sense because common sense disagrees with the experts.

Where can I send the penny you earned for your thoughts?

Does anyone have the address of the Thai "Ministry of Truth"?

Yes the address is lodged with the British Ministry of Funny Walks.

Do they have a branch in Bangkok?

Yes. The department head hangs out at cheap charlies 7 days a week between the hours of 10:00 AM and 02 AM next day. He's an old obese guy with shorts, hairy legs and a union jack T shirt. He's the guy who walks funny.

My apologies for asking the wrong question and heartfelt thanks for supplying me with a more appropriate one. With that in mind, I have a question:

I will be buying a 10 million baht apartment with completion in about 3-6 months. Should I commit capital to currency futures in order to facilitate this?

Thanks for your much anticipated answer.

Apologies but my example is flawed because if you were buying a property with foreign ownership then you would be required to transfer the funds in foreign currency, so a future would not be appropriate. A hedge might be ie to protect yourself against a wild drop in sterling. eg 5% on 200,000 = 10,000. You might be better advised to shorten the period between offer and transfer of funds and hope that even here the sale is not affected by a period of heightened volatility. In addition transfer 10% more in funds than is actually required to protect against such.

I would recommend you transfer the funds as GBP and have the Thai bank convert. Thai banks give better conversion rates than banks in Western countries and their fees are lower.

wow i gotta tell ya, whoever started this thread should be given a raise or shot, it is amazing

Might have to be posthumous raise. May have already jumped off balcony.

I am not sure of the procedure for a posthumous execution. May require a prior resurrection.

The burden of producing for the world is indeed taxing and has come at a hefty price in recent years for china Increasing the Chinese are tired of it and its beginning to show...local consumption will be the next big direction for china and with its grip in Asia and producing only for Asians...if they so choose to it would be interesting to see if the west can really restart their manufacturing base to feed and support themselves with their innovations I don't believe it will happen as the innovations laid by the past generations is not supported by the latter generation who cannot take much hardship without giving up Asians by DNA are better equipped to take the knocks in life and anyone living on Asia will know that even the poorest of parents here try their best to send their kids to schools and hope they will have a brighter future. When I visited the colleges of locals schools in a few western countries I cannot see the same determination to learn or the hardworking aptitude or the ability to save $$$ The CCP has its annual meeting now and it will be interesting to see the developments and speech of the outgoing PM Wen Jia Bao The numbers in any reported is almost always flawed as the population is huge so any averages will bring it down I see aplenty of poor people @ the western first world countries and u cannot describe the countries as 3rd world just a country that is mismanaged.

China has a per capita income of only $US8,000 per year. They are used to selling into markets with 6 - 8 times that much income.

If they lose the customer base of the West from a failure of the West, their incomes will plummet and they will be even less able to self sustain.

The wealth pouring into Asia is and has been coming from the West. If the West fails, Asia goes down.

Are you contending that UK does not buy Chinese goods?

Oh no, of course not. Western Europe is certainly a big part of the Western world, as are the US, Canada, Australia... It is a term wrapped more around economics and developed nations than location. Link

Median income in the UK does not appear to qualify for the $48,000 -$64,000 range you mentioned.

I have a question for those with the technical knowledge. On a minute-to-minute basis, how is the THB-GBP exchange rate arrived at? What calculations take place, where and by who/what in order to change the rate from say 44.67 to 44.54 in the space of an hour?

I know the answer may be very complex, so even a general overview would be useful.

Thanks

15Peter

the answer is complex but the basics are quite simple Peter.

1. currencies are traded like any commodity and the price is based on offer and demand.

2. some (major) currencies are traded directly with each other, the exchange rate of other currencies depend on how the "pair" currencies are trading to which they are linked or have been trading.

explanation "2":

assuming the Angolan Kwanza traded last at 150 vs Pound Sterling when GBP/USD traded at 1.50 it means that it took 100 Kwanza to buy one US-Dollar. if the US-Dollar rises vs the Pound from 1.50 to 1.35 and there is no trading of Pounds or Dollars vs Kwanzas then it takes 111 Kwanzas (~11% more) to buy one US-Dollar.

those who might find a flaw that GBP fell 10% vs USD but it takes 11% more Kwanza to buy USD are advised to check their percentage calculation (down/up respectively up/down) which causes the difference.

note: currencies are traded around the clock on "Globex" six days a week. some interbank trading of multinationals in major currencies is virtually uninterrupted 24/7.

http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/what-affects-currency-rates.html

http://www.investorwords.com/tips/1298/the-relationship-between-the-stock-market-and-forex-markets.html

Still not sure why I spread rubbish (though I didn't tie the sacks very well on Saturday morning...are you my dustman?)

Perhaps you are long in that commodity.

The burden of producing for the world is indeed taxing and has come at a hefty price in recent years for china Increasing the Chinese are tired of it and its beginning to show...local consumption will be the next big direction for china and with its grip in Asia and producing only for Asians...if they so choose to it would be interesting to see if the west can really restart their manufacturing base to feed and support themselves with their innovations I don't believe it will happen as the innovations laid by the past generations is not supported by the latter generation who cannot take much hardship without giving up Asians by DNA are better equipped to take the knocks in life and anyone living on Asia will know that even the poorest of parents here try their best to send their kids to schools and hope they will have a brighter future. When I visited the colleges of locals schools in a few western countries I cannot see the same determination to learn or the hardworking aptitude or the ability to save $$$ The CCP has its annual meeting now and it will be interesting to see the developments and speech of the outgoing PM Wen Jia Bao The numbers in any reported is almost always flawed as the population is huge so any averages will bring it down I see aplenty of poor people @ the western first world countries and u cannot describe the countries as 3rd world just a country that is mismanaged.

China has a per capita income of only $US8,000 per year. They are used to selling into markets with 6 - 8 times that much income.

If they lose the customer base of the West from a failure of the West, their incomes will plummet and they will be even less able to self sustain.

The wealth pouring into Asia is and has been coming from the West. If the West fails, Asia goes down.

Are you contending that UK does not buy Chinese goods?

Western Capatalism has ruled the World for the last 200 years, but no empire lasts forever.

Ours is no longer the economic powerhouse of the World, and China and India are rising to meet the challenges of the 21st century. Our egos have been hurt coz those countries are considered subordinate. How humiliating for England that such an iconic brand as Jaguar could be bought out by Lada Motors of India.

40 years ago, Pattaya was colonised by the West and we felt some ownership over it. Now the Ruskies and Indians are taking over and We resent them for it.

Our time in the sun is quickly coming to an end, and some of us might be forced back to our Homelands as economic refugees.

please change the "Lada" to "Tata Motors"

I read recently that India is not doing so well because they have not created enough manufacturing industry to absorb people graduating from their education systems. This does not portend well for India's future and demonstrates there is an investment shortfall.

India has failed to control their population growth which is another negative factor.

Did you just disclose your net worth Naam?

I take you for a 100K/month kind of guy, and if 5 years is 8%, then 100% is...........75 M.

that would apply if i kept my assets under the mattress without producing any income. fact is that my annual income is around four times my expenditure, id est i hold approximately 15 months income in cash Baht.

p.s. should your 100k/month refer to Baht then you are way off the mark

Over or under?

under?

So 100 k THB is over the mark?

You hit the nail on the head there , my wife has a friend who owns her own car and small condo outright ,i know this lady likes to look good and spend her wages ,which by Thai standards are not bad ,but the other day my wife told me that this lady was in debt so much that she has to sell her condo to pay off her debts ,she wants us to buy it at a reduced price and then she will rent it from us untill she can afford to one day buy it back . And this is an inteligent woman , Thai people just seem to live for the day and have very little forward planning ,i see this time after time after time here.

isn't it nowadays normal that people in many other countries have little forward planning? we lived for nearly 15 years most of the time in the U.S. and spent only a couple of months per year in our house in Germany.

once i told a German banker that we are horrified that Americans finance each and everything (whether it's the car, the TVset or the ride-on lawnmower) he answered cooly do you think the Porsches, BMWs and Mercedes you see on German roads are paid for in cash? if yes, little do you know!

That's how economies work. If people had to buy everything with cash economies would shrink very substantially.

Did you just disclose your net worth Naam?

I take you for a 100K/month kind of guy, and if 5 years is 8%, then 100% is...........75 M.

that would apply if i kept my assets under the mattress without producing any income. fact is that my annual income is around four times my expenditure, id est i hold approximately 15 months income in cash Baht.

p.s. should your 100k/month refer to Baht then you are way off the mark

Over or under?

the published growth rate recently needs careful scrutiny, as I remember is was worded in such a way as to mean nothing if interpreted literally, it was quoted that Thailands growth increased by 6% compared to ............. it did not state Thailands growth rate is ...... nor did it quote any actual figures, Thai airways today claims 6m profit but when you actually look at the breakdown it is not as rosy as it sounds, now it could be just words but let me put it like this, if you have a shrinking economy of say 10% and growth increases by 6% then you actually still have a shrink rate of 4%, not saying this is how it is but as usual I trust nothing this govenment says or does and since no actual figures were released hmmmmm

and would you believe them anyway

If you believe your own arguments you should be betting against the Thai Baht and be bursting with joy if you are holding GBP.

Im sorry but why should people have to be putting their house currency trades?

You also made the ridiculous most bizarre comment that it isnt the BHT strenthening but other countries currencies weakening.

Could you please highlight what major currencies of the world the BHT is weakening against.

I am telling you, that you are 100% wrong.

I suppose major depends where your funding comes from mine is from NZ and increasing against a falling Baht, also against plunging Pounds US$ Yen and so on, same with the OZ I believe.

Mr. Thailand 1977 doesn't appear to be holding any Baht and is not too happy at the moment. In the long term he is not going to get any happier because the GBP is still parachuting down.

the published growth rate recently needs careful scrutiny, as I remember is was worded in such a way as to mean nothing if interpreted literally, it was quoted that Thailands growth increased by 6% compared to ............. it did not state Thailands growth rate is ...... nor did it quote any actual figures, Thai airways today claims 6m profit but when you actually look at the breakdown it is not as rosy as it sounds, now it could be just words but let me put it like this, if you have a shrinking economy of say 10% and growth increases by 6% then you actually still have a shrink rate of 4%, not saying this is how it is but as usual I trust nothing this govenment says or does and since no actual figures were released hmmmmm

and would you believe them anyway

If you believe your own arguments you should be betting against the Thai Baht and be bursting with joy if you are holding GBP.

Im sorry but why should people have to be putting their house currency trades?

You also made the ridiculous most bizarre comment that it isnt the BHT strenthening but other countries currencies weakening.

Could you please highlight what major currencies of the world the BHT is weakening against.

I am telling you, that you are 100% wrong.

Are you joyfully long on GBP?

Answer the question, come on you claim to be a financial genius yet you write the most retarded comment i have ever seen on Thai visa.

Being as i live in England i am as long as you want.

My dear chap, you don't seem very happy with your lot. Have you missed the boat?

I'm long on the thai baht - what exactly does that mean

I've got to ask the question and you can all rate it as a 1-10 scale 10 being the most risk

how many here feel that holding baht is what you would do with your life savings right now

the answer pretty much closes this thread if replies are honest

mine is 11 - which means - are you kidding

i don't think anybody who uses the term "i'm long Baht" has converted his life's savings into THB. i am 'long Baht' too and went not too long ago even "longer".

however, my Baht holdings are less than 8% of my liquid capital and out of the afore-mentioned ~8% i can convert half with a phone call and within minutes into any currency i favour during weekdays because i hold them offshore.

I am 100% in Baht and laughing. Sounds like your liquid capital is intended for your bar keeper.

8% of my liquid capital is equivalent to five years of our living expenses in Thailand. being 100% in Baht would scare the living beejesus out of me. the same goes for being more than 20% in any asset or currency without the means to get out and switch within minutes.

My bleief is Thai Baht is still under-valued. In 1985 it was USD 1 = THB 21. I believe this is more realistic long term value because Thailand has developed and matured considerably since 1985.

Lets hope my rubber trees come to fruition next year unless I'll be back in Good Old Blighty full time!

Are you planning to corner the condom market?

I'm long on the thai baht - what exactly does that mean

I've got to ask the question and you can all rate it as a 1-10 scale 10 being the most risk

how many here feel that holding baht is what you would do with your life savings right now

the answer pretty much closes this thread if replies are honest

mine is 11 - which means - are you kidding

i don't think anybody who uses the term "i'm long Baht" has converted his life's savings into THB. i am 'long Baht' too and went not too long ago even "longer".

however, my Baht holdings are less than 8% of my liquid capital and out of the afore-mentioned ~8% i can convert half with a phone call and within minutes into any currency i favour during weekdays because i hold them offshore.

I am 100% in Baht and laughing. Sounds like your liquid capital is intended for your bar keeper.

I must be the only one who takes advantage of Happy Hour, and is prepared to leave when that magical time comes to an end. OK - they caught me in Koh Chang and Hua Hin, but I would have paid anything to dodge the hangovers that followed those evenings. Nothing quite like going out with 10K baht and waking up with a solitary 10-baht coin

Seriously, find a bar with few customers. smile and say 'Happy Hour ?' in your best 'just got off the plane' voice. The absolute worst that will happen is that you will get the 'Cheap Charlie' look - if you cant handle that, perhaps you might be happier paying 140 baht for a Chang.

GBP fear must have gripped the farang community if you have to drink alone.

A man down the pub told me....

(sorry, had to be the first....this thread is just going that way now)

Out of curiosity where are you from Denizen?

Long ago was from Australia but also have other nationality.

Thank you for answering that question. Why does the THB/GBP rate bother you so much? AUD is looking nice.

I am long on Thai Baht. Thai Baht strength against any currency interests me.

What a smack in the face to Pheu Thai Party which had expended much money and effort.

It's also a warning to Pheu Thai Party they don't have the pubic support they expected and the next national elections might tip them out.

the published growth rate recently needs careful scrutiny, as I remember is was worded in such a way as to mean nothing if interpreted literally, it was quoted that Thailands growth increased by 6% compared to ............. it did not state Thailands growth rate is ...... nor did it quote any actual figures, Thai airways today claims 6m profit but when you actually look at the breakdown it is not as rosy as it sounds, now it could be just words but let me put it like this, if you have a shrinking economy of say 10% and growth increases by 6% then you actually still have a shrink rate of 4%, not saying this is how it is but as usual I trust nothing this govenment says or does and since no actual figures were released hmmmmm

and would you believe them anyway

If you believe your own arguments you should be betting against the Thai Baht and be bursting with joy if you are holding GBP.

Im sorry but why should people have to be putting their house currency trades?

You also made the ridiculous most bizarre comment that it isnt the BHT strenthening but other countries currencies weakening.

Could you please highlight what major currencies of the world the BHT is weakening against.

I am telling you, that you are 100% wrong.

Are you joyfully long on GBP?

A man down the pub told me....

(sorry, had to be the first....this thread is just going that way now)

Out of curiosity where are you from Denizen?

Long ago was from Australia but also have other nationality.

Been coming to Thailand 2-3 months every winter for the past fourteen years.In response to OP I feel Thailand is far more expensive this year than previous years.Yes I stay Isaan sometimes and agree its very cheap.But people who've worked hard in the UK for the rest of the year do like to stay in a fair standard of accommodation when they holiday in Thailand.From my experience I think with the 50% fall in £ against Bt plus Thai inflation I've calculated that it cost me double this winter to 5-6 years whether I stay Samui or BT1500 a night hotels in mid Sukumvit.Have spoken to many other Brits and they all agree Thailand is far more expensive than it used to be.

Darlings, the invisible hand is doing its job. Higher demand = increased prices. Tourist numbers in millions. Note the resilience of the tourist business despite the shocks.

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism.asp

I think the young(er) russians are a breath of fresh air compared to the usual old punters,

and from what i have seen, the russian woman are also not obese generally,

i see some rather attractive here

The Russians have money and enjoy spending it.