new2here

I think that a lot of it is timing... had the Republican incumbent *not* been someone who is as polarizing as Trump, then I think Sanders would have had a better showing... but it seems to me that the first and foremost issue for many on the Democratic side really is who is more electable against Trump and far less about Sanders himself and his policies/ideas.

Together with that, I’m just not so sure that the “average” American - center to center-left leaning - is really and truly prepared to accept someone whose views and ideas are so far from what today is considered to be “mainstream”... they may make great rallying cries and slogans, but I think that’s something different from real world implementation and acceptance. 

3 hours ago, colinneil said:

So grounding 12 more planes will save on expenses of pilots crew, ground crew.

What about cutting a lot of the top heavy management, and save millions every day?

Yes.. quite a bit actually. The pilots contract invariably has language that allows for RIFs (Reduction In Force) and depending on what the contractual language says, they may be able to target those who are type rated to the impacted fleet.  Cabin crew and technical department staff would also be a savings. 

So yes, on the personnel side, there will be some real savings on the Labour side by this move.  In addition, if they are just accelerating the removal of a fleet type then that also adds another layer of cost savings as well. 
 

Sure, reduction of management salaries would also help ... pretty much any labour costs removed would be a plus at this point in time.

i think given what the situation appears to be today and in the short term, TG is going to have to make some pretty drastic cuts ASAP.  I’d be looking at cutting back on cabin staffing - moving to minimum onboard staffing levels.. trim onboard catering and move to a more simplistic service... temporarily shuttering lounges at selected line stations... closing at least temporarily all City Ticket Offices (CTOs)... and a wholesale draw down in terms of the current operating schedule.. freezing all non-essential non-capital spending, a company-wide hiring freeze... things like this.

To me, making changes to fares, in an attempt to bump up bookings/revenue in the short term I think is a non-starter as I suspect that they’re looking at negative bookings (more net cancellations compared to net new bookings)... as I see it, there’s little appetite for new travel bookings right now.

Currently as I see it, Thai is in a triage scenario.. they need to do what they possibly can just to make it until the either the end of Q3 or even Q4 in a reasonable level of finances, operations and cash flow/burn.

This would make sense IF it’s known as fact, or absent fact, is reasonably plausible (as defined by medical or similarly qualified professionals) that the virus can in fact spread via contaminated surfaces such as paper currency.

Its that part, the “can it in fact be transmitted this way” that I myself am not sure about. 

I think it’s fair to say that many airlines don’t really handle reschedulings as well as they could— after all, they (almost always) have a contact point for you (ie your email address, mobile/landline, etc) so I think it’s reasonable to expect a timely contact informing* you of: a) the change, b) what options you have and c) your next course of action.

(note: carriers almost universally have the contractual right to change schedules and do so without the obligation to inform you in advance nor seek your approval to do so)

that said, I also think that LCCs pose a somewhat unique challenge as most LCCs lack so-called interline agreements that would permit carrier A to “push” your ticket/booking from your original carrier (let’s call them Carrier A) to their interline partner (call them Carrier B) who may have a flight that better aligns with your original booking. 

so.. lacking this flexibility means both you and the carrier are somewhat stuck in terms of options— either rebook with a flight Carrier A does have.. or .... refund then have to go out a buy a while new ticket; and at then-current market prices.

Given the current state of the industry, globally and notably regionally, I’d be very aware of any future bookings I had and be prepared to deal with any potential rebooking scenarios that may come, as I think this situation will remain as is until mid to late summer (my guess only)... and when the “up turn” does come, I doubt it will be fast as we’ve seen the “downturn” occur.

I think what we’ll see in the short to medium term is more a draw down on terms of seats flying - be that wholesale route suspensions, reduction of service (from daily to X times weekly) and/or downgaging the aircraft from 773 to 772 or the like..  so I think their first line of action will be capacity drawn down.

fares I think is a bit trickier as that’s far more complex - it’s not just the fare from A to B (ex: LHR-BKK) but then you also have to adjust all the connections that are planned to/from it (ex: LHR-UTH via BKK or SGN-LHR via BKK)... and of course in these times “cash burn” is a larger concern.. so anything that staves off cash burn is something many carriers will be factoring. 

While I agree that the article is lacking in specifics - and I don’t think it was designed to be a point-for-point technical read of the situation - I DO think the larger message is on point... that being the “old days” of a combination of a) weaker baht and stronger western currency plus b) the more complex and rapidly changing visa rules have made living here on a “permanent” basis, a bit more difficult for some.. not all.. but some.

I myself don’t see that changing anytime in the immediate near future.. but like all things governmental, I don’t think it will stay like this forever.

I tend to agree with the above.  While I think there is, and should be, room for compassion in post-incarnation early release, I think the overriding issue to be addressed is compliance and adherence to the penalties imposed by the court at the time of sentencing and the impact that has in the criminals victims - be that individually or collectively.

Regardless of whose “business” it is or is not aside, it appears that the facts are he is/was in an overstay status - and as such, has rule afoul of Thai law.  I do have empathy for him, but at the same time, can’t also turn a blind eye to violation of law.

Do I think this is perhaps overkill?  Sure, I think that a case can be made for that.. but again, the facts (as I have read and interpret them) are that he is/was on overstay status, thus became subject to enforcement action..

I understand their feelings... but... unless Thai law or Chevrolet’s applicable policies in Thailand have some form of “price protection” then I don’t see a credible claim here.

in the same way if the car was sold at X price LAST week,  but then a price HIKE were to come into effect THIS, would the same argument be made for the buyers to pay up to the new price level?

again, I can empathize with their issue - and I do agree that there was a very very quick devaluation of their vehicles (if bought at pre-clearance prices) but that to me isn’t a compensable matter.  
 

lots of “end of the model year” sales - be that clothes, electronics, etc are sold this way and those that buy at any point in the models life cycle bear some risk as to the timing and risks associated to market cycle and pricing relative to the point in the life cycle.

7 hours ago, Scott said:

My work was primarily in the administrative area and I supervised a large number of teachers at several schools.   Years ago, the director of the school was easy to work with and she had the authority to release the teachers at the end of the year when I recommended it.   I simply told them that if all paperwork --lesson plans, evaluations, tests and grades were submitted -- they were done for the year.   That had to be from all teachers.   My life was much easier if they worked hard, got everything done and were gone.   No one bothered me as I got report cards ready and finished up other necessary work.

Then the owner of the schools got involved and started deciding when foreign & Thai teachers would be released.   Foreign teachers get a better deal and a released about a week before Thai teachers, but they are still left with virtually nothing to do for about a week.   A few just drag out finishing the grading, which makes my life more difficult.  

It's a management type of thing and they are paying, so they have the right to keep teachers on the premise.  Some have a store of movies they watch, a few have a book to read, and others just sit around talking.   It's demoralizing, but that's the way it goes.  

I agree. While I am at the university level where this issue is, as far as I know, isn’t very prevalent, I have seen it first hand at several larger government schools, including a Satit that I am familiar with.

i think some of it is repercussions due to a minority of former teachers who, essentially abused the free-in, free-out policy that was previously in place... so now everyone pays the price for it, by a strict set in and out time.  
 

But I do agree with Scott in that the management style is a big, if not the biggest part... while I’m at the university level, we have had cases of foreign instructors (all on contracts) who’ve left early (meaning didn’t fulfill their required/posted office hour days/times)..  but.. in those cases, the issue was dealt with by one of the Associate Deans, and only with the offending teachers... they were given warnings and anyone who continued to do so either was put into the discipline process or made to “sign in/out” at the main office daily... everyone else who was doing right, was left alone...  so rather than a one-size-fits-all solution, it was only imposed on those who didn’t comply.. 

so, I agree that management style plays a big role in how issues are dealt with. I think a good management style knows when uniformity is the best course of action and when individualized actions are more appropriate.

I too agree.  While I think that had things been more “normal” an extension would have produced more economic stimulus than not... but given the current climate - both health related and overall negative economic sentiment- I agree that adding more days would probably not produce the intended effect of higher economic stimulus net the of the loss of productivity due to the additional days off.

As I recall EVA has one of the USPS contracts for US Mail to several countries in Asia, Thailand included.  That is because they service all the US airports with an ISC which is the last point before a US originated mail piece is cleared to be exported.  My experience is that it’s right around 14 to 20 days... but there’s a lot of variables such as making that days dispatch, hold ups for outbound clearance#, even inbound Thai clearance too... So called “document” shipments tend to clear faster than non-document shipment (the difference is that all non-document shipments must have attached the correct version of the PS 2976 form for customs clearance purposes)

(#remember that while we think of Customs as an entry only event, Customs does have the statutory right to inspect outbound mail for compliance with relevant export commercial and product control laws, currency control laws, etc)

Regardless of the parenting level or whatever, the death of a 15-year old boy is tragic - period.

That said, I also have to agree that while 15 year olds are semi-independent and can be difficult or almost impossible to control at times, they are your (parent/guardian) responsibility... 

i don’t know the parents, the family situation and all the other variable to go into raising and impacting the life a child- so I can’t really comment on the parenting skills/attention etc... but.... while I don’t know those parts, what I am comfortable with is the notion that a child, 15 years or not, is still a minor and still the legal obligation of an adult.. so that person or persons need to “step up” in terms of monitoring, appropriately and positively influencing the minor as well as monitoring their actions.

10 hours ago, pdtokyo said:

I'm not taking sides here ... can see some merit in in the original post and in some of those who have reacted so ... enthusiastically.

 

... but a tiny point ... it's really difficult to carry bottles of ANYTHING on flights ... i can't recall seeing hand sanitizer packaged in small enough bottles to get past the scanners.

 

My plan is to re-pack some sanitizer into a 100ml bottle for my flight into Don Muaeng this weekend and hope nobody asks me to explain what's in it ... my Thai is limited to sawaddi-khrup and kop-kun-khrup ... and i haven't got the time or spare brain cells to memorise the Thai for "Good morning officer, It's hand sanitizer that i took out of a big bottle and put into this little bottle''*

 

* อรุณสวัสดิ์เจ้าหน้าที่มันเป็นเจลทำความสะอาดมือที่ฉันหยิบขวดใหญ่ออกมาแล้วใส่ลงไปในขวดเล็ก ๆ นี้ according to Google

I agree too.   I think given where Thailand is geographically to China any the volume of inbound Chinese passengers (as well as non-PRC citizens but transit-via-PRC volume) i think it’s fair to expect the front-line staff to pay a higher level of attention to enhanced cleanliness and hygienic protocols at places like airport immigration processing booths/queues.

That said, I also think there is some measure of personal responsibility too.  Not everyone it everywhere will have the disinfectant— and for the moment, I agree that at the IOs desks, I’d expect that - but IF they don’t, then I’d hope that as a prepared individual, you’d have a standby supply as well.

I thought I’d add what I know... one of the six foreign teachers who teach at the Demonstration school attached to the university did his 5-year Krusapah renewal (and was told that he needed to do his next filing online only and not in person) and did have to show professional development material.  They essentially asked for one such “event” per year of licensing.

In his case, some of his events were in the same calendar year, but were in different academic years (ie one in January, thus towards the end of the school year and the next in August or towards the beginning of the next school year) but the window clerk asked his supervisor who said it was fine.

again, just one experience that I have first hand knowledge of, but I’m pretty sure this would me a YMMV type of situation.

Political motives from one side or another of the Thai system aside, I tend to agree with the idea that giving a cash-like “spend” voucher to a tourist (defined here as a genuine short-stay foreigner) isn’t really the best way forward.

Purely of my own thinking a genuine upper mid- to upper-level spend type tourist (whose daily aggregate spend might be in the range of US$1000 daily or more excluding hotel/airfare) won’t be radically swayed into their vacation planning over a voucher type system with a total value of less than US$100 or the like.
 

i think IF the goal is to attract this segment then you’ll have to offer them more native “experiences” as opposed to mass-volume tourist sites and show them you can offer it in a value-for-money level while also showing you have security, safety, and a well designed process.
 

I also think if one can do that, you’ll stand a better chance to attract the upper value tourist crowd, but also I’ll be there will be some level of trickle down to also positively impacts perhaps the lower-middle market as well.

What I think is the “wild card” is not so much what will it will not happen in Thailand - be that rules/visas, currency swings etc, is what will the regional competition look like?

i mean I think it IS possible to some degree; that places like Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and even Vietnam will change/improve their processes, infrastructure (ie health care, domestic transportation) and governmental rule/law that would make it a higher value proposition than say what Thailand is today or might/may be in 10 or even 20 years time.

3 hours ago, Sticky Wicket said:

It would hit certain pockets of the country hard.

A lot of Issan has been funded over the years by expats.

When 'John' gives "Fon' 10,000 baht that money then splits off into various avenues and assists a lot of people.

Extrapolate that and you are talking about affecting a lot of lives

I agree.  I think that on a purely nationwide basis, the direct impact would be minimal at best... but ... as you note, I think the impact would vary from area to area and among different socio-economic classes rather than wholly uniform.

i do also think that one would be wise, from a national perspective, to have the most diversified economic base as possible.  So... while I suspect that expressed as a % of GDP, the direct spending power of the “expatriate” is in the low, low single digits, I think that every little bit helps.. plus it spreads out your risk when the economic climate invariably changes and one part of your GDP that was formerly working well for you, is now under stress 

14 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

If that is true, and Thailand counts people in and out as tourists then Thailand has a really big problem. 40 million tourists - would mean less than 20 tourists on each plane !! (and that's being generous for no land crossings !)

Don’t forget that this figure also includes cargo operations... and BKK (and to a lesser degree DMK) has a fairly sizable air cargo operation with several all-cargo carriers such as China Airlines Cargo and NCA both serving Bangkok (and often to HKT/CNX as well) either daily or close to daily.

so, I suspect the movement count cited is probably close to accurate when *all* non-military, air movements are included- passenger, cargo and private.

2 hours ago, topt said:

Does this actually happen where you come from as it certainly never used to happen n the UK and I doubt that has changed much? 

I can only speak for the 3 districts I’m familiar with in the US, and the three that my cousins have worked for/in all had some type of mandatory “orientation” for new teachers (new meaning never a teacher before as opposed to a lateral transfer-in) where their pay/benefits, perks, contract, etc were all explained and basic fiscal management issues such as household budgeting etc, were taught — because most of the teachers on these groups were fresh university graduates and their first meaningful full-time employment.

I’m not so sure I place a whole lot of “blame” on the financial institutions themselves...  so long as they properly disclosed the terms of their loans/products in advance, then I can’t really place a whole lot of blame on them.

yes, there is the idea of predatory lending, excessive interest rates and such.. but... from a base line idea, I hold that an adult is principally responsible for their own income/debt situations.

yes, cheap or easy credit does have risks ... I agree.. but in the end, cheap/easy credit is really only problematic for those who essentially mismanage it. 

What I guess surprises me a bit is that there isn’t better financial management taught in schools or even with the new government teachers before they are deployed into their respective schools.  I would have hoped that the civil service unit would have classes for their new members to teach them about their new reality... be that money management, retirement planning, any public sector benefits available, etc.

i get it that the initial salary is low (low is of course relative) but it IS (as I know it) fully disclosed to prospective teachers in advance.. so.. they did know this is the income stream they’d be locked into going forward.

to that end, I don’t really think it’s the banks nor governments “duty” to ”bail out” these folks.... now, from a national fiscal health perspective, having such a large percentage of debt held by one single class of creditor is worrysome from a potential default risk basis — I DO think the government must keep tabs on it- but I’m not a supporter of direct fiscal intervention in the matter at this point in time.

4 hours ago, darksidedog said:

While I applaud the initiative to reduce the amount of unnecessary plastic bags being used, this does kind of suggest that the replacement options should have received significantly more consideration before the ban was implemented in such a rush.

I agree 100%..... I think that there should have been better, more comprehensive pre-planning such as issuing all customers one or two of the reusable bags (either for free in lieu of the businesses saved cost of plastic bags, or “at cost” perhaps)... that way, when they did cut over on Jan 1, I think perhaps it would have been less of a shock.

True, no amount of preplanning will avoid X percentage of people still being unprepared on Jan 1.... but perhaps I think there’s be less push-back 

what I wonder is why I don’t see more paper bags (with attached handles) as options?  Yes, they cost more on the initial acquisition side, but are (in most cases) fully recyclable with traditional paper products like newsprint.... so I’d guess the recovery rate would be quite high.

im not talking about virgin pulp whereby a tree has to be toppled to creat it, rather a 100% post-consumer product style bag 

I asked my local 7-11 (off Sathorn) and the night manager said that he had been told to use the old stock of plastic bags that we’re opened already and wasn’t still in their original supplier boxes, but that a plastic bag was to be used either “up request” or “upon clear need” but that they were to suggest using a reusable cloth bag or otherwise first.

I think that’s a fair solution for the time being - but I’d think perhaps a “hard date” where bags can’t be used anymore period, would also be a good idea - so that the draw-down period can’t be too long.