LibertyNinja1776

Hi deadbroke, didn't shun anyone's advice mate - was just responding to some comments made.

Yes, despite what happens life is very normal. And we act, not just analyse. Like you (I assume) I like to think I'm well rooted in science/fact - not unsubstantiated theories*. Understanding through science / engineering is what I'm about here and in my profession. After all much of the world we live in is engineered. (If you understand money, banking then you probably agree. *And what I talk about is backed by substantial evidence easily picked up on zerohedge etc.)

Inflation vs deflation for the next phase - no obscure subject. We've had phases of both already. Here's one view which evidently looks at that "big picture / central planning" as well -

A stock correction / deflation seems likely, but maybe not.

Dow 32,000 with no major crash beforehand? Possible. Gold $2,300+ without further correction below 1180. Very possible.

Hence no reason for analysis to discourage buying *now*. In fact the opposite.

For shorter term profits - deadbroke - not a bad bit of gold trading there. I assume that's all on XAUUSD. We are all forex traders... in a way.

Agreed, mccw. The point is not to wait to start buying physical ie. don't hope/count on the price dropping more.

Along the lines of Rickards' book, gold has been low for some time now allowing China to acquire massive reserves (and making system changes not against their interests). This major driver for manipulating gold to these low prices may not be around for too much longer.

The point is that the physical gold run (itself) is likely to be part of a catalyst change in int'l money (as Rickards wrote).

Given our understanding, it might not be preceded by deflation / drops in the wider market before it happens. MCCW reckons it could and he has a point.

While you may believe otherwise, this is a pretty important question for most gold buyers in terms of timing. (ed.)

What about the Palestinians? Are you going to consider them too before you make a move in Gold? Now Obama is attacking Iraq and Russia has thrown in yet another curveball. What if China deides to make UK a state? What if mccw gets the flu or has constipation? How will you be able to resolve all these issues before gold reaches $4000?

Good luck, Chief

Deadbroke, terrible things going on in the world mate. For most of us gold-minded folk, being rooted in Austrian economics vs inherently (mathematically) flawed debt-based money is the most important thing. We all seem to agree on distrust of fiat money. The rest seems to be about timing. Technicals and price action are important even to big banks moving/manipulating the price - so trend/price action is important.

But "Russia has thrown in yet another curveball." ? I think Russia are the batter defending the plate here mate. What the west has done there (all unreported) is fairly shocking. And Obama and Victoria Nuland are terrible pitchers!

I'm from down under by the way - much prefer cricket. Not much that's happening in the world is "cricket" anymore. But I suppose it's been like that for quite some time.

Reminds me of that Jimi Hendrix / Bob Dylan song: all along the watchtower

You asked for thoughts, angles or things overlooked?

Focus on PRICE alone - everything known to MAN is already taken into account in PRICE, except for acts of God and George Bush, now disguised as Obama

Oh, ok - sure mate. So let's trade purely on technicals and the price action of a price actively manipulated... without regard to anything else we know.

The point is that the physical gold run is likely to be part of a catalyst change in int'l money (as Rickards wrote).

Given our understanding, it might not be preceded by deflation / drops in the wider market before it happens. MCCW reckons it could and he has a point.

While you may believe otherwise, this is a pretty important question for most gold buyers in terms of timing. (ed.)

No let's trade purely on yak yak yak and who is manipulating who and for how long.

Get in on the trade, NOW. Go LONG and give talk a rest.

Money talks yak yak walks.

Haha, you funny man. No wonder you're called dead broke and "go long" ... not trading the paper stuff (on margin) I hope.

You asked for thoughts, angles or things overlooked?

Focus on PRICE alone - everything known to MAN is already taken into account in PRICE, except for acts of God and George Bush, now disguised as Obama

Oh, ok - sure mate. So let's trade purely on technicals and the price action of a price actively manipulated... without regard to anything else we know.

The point is that the physical gold run is likely to be part of a catalyst change in int'l money (as Rickards wrote).

Given our understanding, it might not be preceded by deflation / drops in the wider market before it happens. MCCW reckons it could and he has a point.

While you may believe otherwise, this is a pretty important question for most gold buyers in terms of timing.

In the same sorta range it has been since ages.

Quiet before the storm I think personally. My crystal balls see a big everything crash next year then soon after a flight to safety / gold/ maybe dollar treasuries n such. Gold maybe double or treble what it is today.

(Currently I'm not holding hardly any at all.)

LOL, there it is again, he says, "(Currently I'm not holding hardly any at all.)

Psychology of HERDs 101: Always wrong at major turns.

Behold the technical chartist's best ancillary weaponry = Sentiment of the the HERD = taking the temperature of the HERD = keep tabs of what the HERD members are saying = they will give good warning of the impending turn

God, do I love it so!

We have (for now) another leg of lift off !

MCCW has a point about about a deflation phase first IMHO. And manipulation.

HOWEVER... interesting to think through how it plays out. If Mr Rickards is right about the "catalyst" for global money requiring the physical-gold-run as part of the "event" it ONLY requires a deflation phase to maintain central banker's "not our fault" status in the herd's eyes.

What if the real story (for the HERD) were "it's all the Russians' fault" and Putin is drawn into war by O-stupid-bama's provocations in Ukraine?

We may or may not have deflation before CTL+P has to go even further into overdrive.

MCCW & enlightened others - any thoughts, angles or things overlooked ?

the red stars are where i am speculating Bangkok Assay is. can anyone confirm?

Yes I think that's right - opposite Suriwong. Try streetview on google maps.

I am sure that some shops deal in 999 cast bars because I have heard it mentioned before, I just can not remember which shops actually do so.

I've seen in a couple other threads Tang Tor Kang (Mangkorn Rd, Yaowarat) and Bangkok Assay mentioned. Also upper levels of Hua Seng Heng building next to Lotus in Yaowarat, but for larger bars apparently. All 999, for which I think ID is required.

This is all from my reading, not personal experience. Planning to check in out myself in Bkk and Hkg next month.

Any input from recent buyers out there?

Syria’s Reichstag Moment

http://homment.com/syria-reichstag

Lunatic websites ahoy!

Perhaps, but sometimes the truth can often be stranger than fiction.

Ever read Adam Lebor's book(s) about bankers who financed Hitler and how this pertains / continues into banking today?

Hi!

Does a 31,1 gold bar and a Austrian gold coin philharmonic have the same sell price in Thailand?

Here for buy and sale at bank one gold coin 35€ diffrence in thai only 100 baht!

Is this only for Thai gold or gold coins ?

How much is price in Thailand. At moment of 1 oz philharmonic?

Can I win money with better exchange rates and lower commission or profit from the buyers shop comparing to Europe?

Please help me calculate!

Thx!

For 96.5% thai gold price check http://www.goldtraders.or.th/ - they also quote the hong kong price for 99.9%.

Western coins aren't really traded in Thai shops. Usually they buy to melt down and might pay a few % below spot price. You may have to shop around for slightly better price.

Better off selling in HK or Singapore. But if I were you I'd keep your gold mate!!

If you must sell, PM me if you're in Bkk in September - If only a few coins I'd consider buying it for spot price +0.5%.

Paulson and Soros sold all gold holdings. That tells u something.

Maybe that the fractional reserve Comex / futures / ETF trading vehicles for "gold" are heading towards an inevitable shift in confidence?

Comex guy: "We rarely ever get a 1% [orders for delivery]"

Kyle Bass: "What if it does happen?"

Comex guy: "Price will solve everything"

Kyle Bass: "Thanks. Give me the gold."

http://investmentwatchblog.com/kyle-bass-says-comex-cant-deliver/

Just maybe it's getting closer. Not being an insider, I wouldn't want to bet on timing for something like that though.

Maybe Larry Edelson's predicted "drop in september" will happen after all?

One scenario; probably the most unlikely of all but I do think possible is if west and emerging markets fall in to recession together then the physical support from east turns the otherway on top of PIGS central bank and paper market selling then we get a Major price collapse to say $200-400 and oz followed maybe by central banks across the world printing and or system/ currency collapses and then possibly a rocket to the moon in PM prices as who ever has money left has no where else half safe to put it. Or maybe its collapse and its not worth much along with everything else, values across the board are zero or not very much, most trade and exchange grinds to a halt for a while.

More likely; I think a new range will be set around where we are today; demand for physical from east continues while supply contracts due to production unprofitability; prices rise slowly across the decades ahead but with volatility both ways on news of eurozone central bank selling or miners closing shop and such.

Its PIIGS, not PIGS.

I wonder if (further on into a crisis) some central banks start buying gold, even with printed money at some point. But for printer-less Europeans - selling gold = selling sovereignty?

Slippery slope to fiscal union. As Henry Kissinger said "the unconstitutional takes a little longer". A simple analysis would suggest, the German plaintiffs in the upcoming court case are somewhat aware what the endgame could be?

Throughout all of history, there has never been a single instance where a fiat currency did not end in hyperinflation and complete collapse. There is not one example of a successful fiat currency. Because the simple thing is that if you give a printing press, in simplified terms, to a politician, a king, an emperor, a president, a prime minister, you name it, they will overuse it every single time. That is just human nature. And that is what happens.

It is particularly a deficiency in democracy, because democracy will also always have people vote themselves a bunch of benefits that the politicians promise to get elected. And that is how you get this spiral effect that keeps going. So the end result is the same.

This time around, though, we are in unchartered territory, because you have got global fiat currencies and you have got a global reserve currency. So unlike hyperinflations in the past – like, everybody knows about Germany, it was restricted to a country – this time it is going to be global.

In terms of the short term, there is probably no other choice but to print more, because if the Fed pulled back in its quantitative easing, we would have a massive depression. So for the moment, you print more. But the problem is, what happens down the road?

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/82228/nick-barisheff-case-much-higher-gold-prices

'Down the road' on Planet Eventually. (From a website touting $10,000 an ounce gold)

Can't say I agree that peak prosperity touts $10,000 gold price. One of their guests the other day does though.

What they do tout is some great free (some paid) info that predicts a major inflection point in geopolitics, resources and global finance. (2008 wasn't it unfortunately.)

http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse It's free! - the crash course. No sections titled "aaah panic! buy gold!"

Another assumption we make. Short term, dollar vs gold is correlated. But this isn't always true either. http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/81746/charting-gold (shows a poor correlation with dollar. and QE also)

As the european situation deteriorates we could see something interesting: Dollar up, gold up too?

http://finance.moneyandmarkets.com/reports/GST/062613/summit.php?ccode=0626135616272GST&[email protected]&sc=RWRA&ec=5616272

So gold bottoming & going higher during a european deflationary event? Maybe.

Any thoughts?

To say gold is simply a constant store of value, or a hedge against inflation is oversimplifying. Dollars are borrowed into existence, there are cycles involved.

Maybe this sums it up well.

I don't buy the $20,000 target though.

It doesn't cover the short term very well too.

I just don't see where there is anything to complain about. Gold is up something like 400% in the past 12 years or so. That's a fantastic return over that particular time period.

But looking back 12 years doesn't always work and is not a guaranteed forecast of 12 years forward.

Well it works for Gold, which is what I was talking about and I wasn't suggesting that had any predictive value.

Yep, there's an endpoint to how low the down manipulation can work price-wise. Time-wise I also think it has to be fairly soon. Can't rule out another leg down though.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-26/gold-drops-below-its-average-cash-cost Price-wise this piece and the last paragraph in it has to sum it up I think.

Those ultra short funds are not good vehicles for position trades. The underlying can move in the direction you wish and you can still lose money. They are better for trading in and out of.

Yep, but they're not too bad over the course of a few months. I personally use CFDs for gold hedges.

I think he recommends them because they're easy to access for the US clients, and many of them must be old folks who aren't serious traders. Beats losing out on spreads at the gold dealers shop every time.

Does 2 plus 2 always equal 4 in the financial world

probably not ..after commissions charges etc etc

2 plus 2 probably equals 3.5

Then if you want Physical , if you can get it , 2 plus 2 may equal 3

its a rigged market

i have no idea what fancy commissions your bank charges. i pay 0.15% buying and selling. in the case of hedging physical Gold via paper transactions it is a miniscule amount compared to this years loss of the yellow metal of 27%.

Yeah, ETFs and CFDs are great for hedging. Especially the ones you can trade 24 hours a day.

Sad that premiums can put off many average joes from buying physical gold/silver. Great having places like BKK and HK help out with that, for gold anyway.

for anybody with a substantial holding of physical gold, which is not easy to shuffle back and forth, a paper hedge of paper short is a must. starting not necessarily a year ago but definitely since early 2013.

Just thought I'd share this - from one trader I follow who has subscribers hedging since ~$1700.

(Larry Edelson, former pro commodities trader. He publishes the Real Wealth Report, subscription does not cost an arm and a leg.)

Recommended to remove the first half of gold hedges on June 6 if I remember correctly.

This out this morning 6.30 ET (US) -

Grab these profits NOW …

Dear Member,

Wow, this is exciting! Gold and silver are plunging again this morning, zeroing in on the precise time and price levels I’ve been targeting for a major low.

Gold is down over $42 as I pen this flash alert (6:50 AM ET), trading at the $1,229 level. Silver is down over $0.92, trading at the $18.60 level.

Without further delay, it’s time to take some action. Specifically …

To act on the above three recommendations, here are the instructions you would give your broker, or enter online:

1. It’s time to exit the remaining half of your gold hedge by selling your remaining shares in the ETF ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL). We are close enough to a major low to exit that remaining hedge position.

2. It is also time to grab all remaining profits on the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL), where the gains are now as much as 125.32%.

3. It is also time to grab your profits on the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT). As you know, bond prices have been clobbered as of late, but a bounce is overdue. This makes now the ideal time to grab your gains of as much as 18.59% on TBT.

Go ahead and get these orders in as soon as possible.

First, SELL ALL of my remaining shares in ProShares UltraShort Gold, symbol GLL, at the market.

Second, SELL ALL of my remaining shares in ProShares UltraShort Silver, symbol ZSL, at the market. Then cancel the good-till-cancelled protective sell stop at $73.54.

Third, SELL ALL of my shares in ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury, symbol TBT, at the market. Then cancel the good-till-cancelled protective sell stop at $62.22.

Best wishes,

Larry

He's been quite good on gold, wider stock market timing not always brilliant. But worth consideration at the current price.

(He mentioned the 1225 as the next support level below 1350 months ago actually.)

Or use the approach of Marc Faber at Hedge Funds World 2012 - "You are all intelligent people... buy every month a little bit of gold." He also says if it goes down allocate a little bit more capital to it.

On Sunday I bought half a baht in bar form. It's an investment for my 1 year old, he can have it when he's 21. Where do you guys see gold being in 20 years time? Have opened a v. big can of worms?

It should still be worth enough when he is 21 for him to blow it all on a hooker and some weed.

The gold will buy the same as it buys today no more and no less it's function as an investment is not to grow but to protect against inflation

Dysfunctional in that regard. eg 1980-2005

Could say the same (well, opposite) thing about 1976 to 1980 - plenty of change in buying power there!

I don't think anything that can be bid up/down can ever really stay constant. Especially when money is borrowed into existence. While gold isn't

But in the long run across centuries it is somewhat true.

But maybe in 1980 or Diocletians time, you could get more than one hooker to go with that weed. Then again no reliable history on the fluctuation of that particular commodity.

harryfrompattaya, on 25 Jun 2013 - 16:04, said:

Just remeber in 2 years when it will be under 850 who told you

Check the post what I said from 1500 to the high

---

binjalin said - does anybody think this scenario is a real possibility?

---

Mid-2015 at 850. Unlikely I think.

On Sunday I bought half a baht in bar form. It's an investment for my 1 year old, he can have it when he's 21. Where do you guys see gold being in 20 years time? Have opened a v. big can of worms?

While this is only anecdotal, with guys like Marc Faber saying "for all my life I will never sell my gold" that is one argument saying we see it going up long term.

Others say once the system is "fixed" (easier said than done) gold will decline again. Guys like Mike Maloney (he's got a good youtube video illustrating the monetary system very well) say gold will be the ultimate bubble.

But there's a long way to go in this bubble I think. Just a cyclical downturn/correction in a 13-year secular bull market so far. But money/debt is increasing exponentially (accelerating) and has to - to avoid a deflationary scenario.

Maybe Faber is acknowledging how gold will become/remain a widely popular asset as its outside inflation/taxing and an unstable banking system that could have ongoing problems in different countries.

waiting for the end of the world to justify their position.

Just thought I'd pick up on this. ie. those who think we need the "end of the world" for gold to go to levels we expect. (Not saying that's your position Yoshi.)

In any case it is a long term thing, especially if you don't want to lose out in shorter term swings.

It's not about the end of the world financially, just an inevitable result of an unsustainable system that's been in place for only 42 years. (Since Nixon & August 15, 1971)

For those who think gold is about a doomsday thing, encourage you to look at the fundamentals of how the current system works, not often covered by media etc.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/video/223/playlist/153/chapter-7-money-creation

The rest of the "crash course" is an eye opener as well. Not saying everything will be hunky-dory though.

And this from a trader/hedge fund manager who's been harping on for some time about this - Kyle Bass in one of his older letters to his investors in 2009. He rightly asks

"Does Keynes have it right?"

http://zerohedge.blogspot.co.nz/2009/03/deep-thoughts-from-kyle-bass_06.html

Here's an answer for ya

(from http://www.zerohedge.com/node/475541 )

No Joke I am making serious money and trying to help the poor who belive gold shall come back in 10 years

Just remeber in 2 years when it will be under 850 who told you

Check the post what I said from 1500 to the high

It could well dip further, but it is well oversold.

But to say it won't recover for 10 years means you have pretty strong faith in central banks and sovereign debt levels.

Any particular pro- trader who's views you follow?

(Please don't say Tim Geithner )

The facts speak for themselves:

gold index.png

I wonder where that would put choc.gold on that chart today. Dropping to find some support I hope

I found this fairly entertaining & insightful comment about what the Fed may be up to lately on zerohedge:

Record margin debt (so large, it dwarfs any prior amounts), bitchez.

85 billion of combined MBS & Treasury purchases by Benny & the Inkjets monthly ain't what it used to be, and Bernakiocletian completely lied yesterday when he patently mischaracterized the nature of stock -vs- flow.

If one had the correct amount of cynicism, one could mount a credible theory that bubbles-bubbles-brewing-everywhere had Ben worried, and a nice, healthy smackdown of the equity markets is just what the doctor (Ph.D., not M.D.) ordered, to take heat off Benny Boy for loading the equity dice so fully.

But long term, it's all good, because electronic stock certificates are rock solid respositories of real wealth.

BTFD.

p.s. Keep an eye on treasury yields & commodity prices, which are the proverbial rock(et) and hard (asset) place Ben is squeezed between whenever reaching for CTRL+P.

***

Found here (http://www.zerohedge.com/node/475498)

Given the Fed talk, this is probably the environment where gold is least favoured. A time for contrarians to start buying? Probably...