LibertyNinja1776

Nice to meet you too mate. Kiwi style.

Btw. Japan is really front and centre in terms of central bank policies. This piece and video is interesting -

Yes, was exposed to radiation and am now obsessed with shiny metals!

Naam, on 19 Jun 2013 - 22:34, said:

i also don't think that there is any difference or "better" place to buy 24k gold. most of BKKs big goldshops exist since decades and have an excellent reputation.

Thanks Naam.

Was just wondering whether some had a lower price premium and maybe more international bars in case I need to sell (for a good price) while back I'm in New Zealand.

Last time I was in Thailand all shops (yaowarat etc) said there is no 99.9% anywhere! I should have done my research first. Here for example.

so with the drop - time to buy back in?

Its always time to buy back in, yes? Up,down, sideways, its all the same.

Not Always. Many had predicted a correction and advising to hedge (ie. sell "paper gold" short) since it was up at $1700, which I for one have done to protect gold I have. The so-called profits gained there will go back into buying more gold soon. Here's one adviser I follow (out this morning from Larry Edelson) - but read other material (eg. king world news) and decide for yourself:

***

You can also access this issue on our website.

Flash Alert: Buy gold now ...

Dear Member,

Larry here, with yet another flash alert. A very important one.

Following on the heels of my June 5 alert to grab gains and sell half of your hedge position in theProShares UltraShort Gold ETF (GLL), I believe it is now time to get your toes wet and add a small long position in gold.

I’ll have a full explanation and the details as to why in the June Real Wealth Report, publishing this Friday.

I’ll also be following up with you via a series of five complimentary online sessions starting June 26 at 2:00 PM ET. Keep an eye on your inbox for further details on how to attend.

For now, let me summarize the three major reasons why I am recommending you add a small stake in gold: Today’s Federal Reserve announcement that it will continue to buy bonds and print money is a factor, but more importantly …

First, I am seeing a subtle but important change in gold’s trading pattern. Namely, both the dollar and gold are showing signs of rallying together.

This could be a very significant change in the relationship between the dollar and gold. I believe the reason for this is …

Second, my models show that the euro currency is in danger of collapsing. Despite the euro’s recent strength against the dollar, it is very overbought and extremely vulnerable to a sharp decline.

In addition, Europe’s economy is sinking badly, and there are a number of European financial institutions that are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. My timing models show that Europe could start to crumble at any moment, and that the next several months will be especially volatile and worrisome for Europe.

If my models are correct, this is likely to send European capital scurrying for safety. That in turn could prove to be bullish for both the dollar and gold. Hence, the reason why we are seeing a change of character in gold’s trading pattern, as noted above.

Third, technical support is firming up. There is now solid support at the $1,358 level, followed by $1,351, and then the April low of $1,310.

Please note: Today’s recommendation is what I call an “anticipatory” buy. That means I am recommending buying in anticipation of an important low forming.

“Anticipating a low forming” also means that I do not yet have confirmation that the low has been made. Thus, the reason I am only recommending a small buy right now.

If I’m right and we subsequently get a confirmed low, then I will become more aggressive.

Alternatively, if gold does fall a bit further, which is still a possibility, I will likely use that as an opportunity to average down and buy more gold.

Keep in mind this recommendation is a long-term core gold holding and part of the Basic Survival Strategies section of Real Wealth Report. That means …

A. You should expect to hold this position for up to three years, possibly longer.

B. I will not be recommending a protective stop for this position. However, I will of course be monitoring the position for you, and if there are any changes in my strategy, you will be the first to know.

C. ALL Real Wealth Report subscribers should act on this recommendation. Whether you are adding to your existing core gold holdings or this is your first buy

In addition, please note that …

D. It is not yet time to start buying mining shares. Mining shares are underperforming for several reasons, which you’ll read about in the June Real Wealth Report. But stay alert, we may soon see a bottom there as well.

E. It is also not yet time to buy silver. Silver remains vulnerable to another downdraft, even if gold holds current levels.

F. Importantly, if you remain long half of your original shares of the previously recommended ProShares UltraShort Gold, symbol GLL, continue to hold, but only if you already own gold per the Basic Survival Strategies section.

If you are a new Real Wealth Report member and this is your first buy of core gold holdings … or if you have not previously purchased shares in GLL, for whatever reason, do not buy shares in GLL at this time.

***

Just an example, it's not always time to buy. But more and more seem to say now is getting close to the bottom.

Maybe this will start some (healthy) debate. Yoshi are you a wingeing pom pretending to be Japanese by any chance? ;-)

Gold Premiums in Vietnam Hit $217 Over Spot In Heavy Demand

Naam, you seem to be quite knowledgeable about local markets. Do vietnamese shops buy thai 96.5 gold for a similar premium?

They must be doing something to make it difficult for regular joes trying to arbitrage by carrying jewelry in.

Another question - for buying 99.9, is Tang Toh Kang or Bangkok Assay a better place to buy?

a gold bug bear that just fails to happen and even when it does gold can fall flat on it face.

gold doesn't always work in the face of inflation eg 1980-2005, they go deaf, deaf, deaf?

As Marc says, inflation does not manifest itself equally or at the same time across say (1) real estate, (2) stocks, (3a) consumer prices or (3b) commodities/gold or (4) bonds.

1980 to 2005 - During those good times of credit expansion in the private (& public) sector, of course yield assets will attract significant capital with low risk of default on bonds or bad dividends or stock performance or real estate. So we got a rise in (1) and (2), the dollar we relatively strong keeping (3a) and (3b) in check.

Bond yields were also falling during that part of the bond market / interest rate cycle - 1980 to ~2012. So fixed term bonds (4) appreciated while yields fell.

(Something interesting happened in 2008 which may be a little bit telling for the future. With (1) and (2) falling, (3 - commodities) went ballistic. This then fell in 2008 in a deflationary environment.)

About today's re-flation - my thinking goes something like this:

Now we have a different environment entirely. People are too indebted for (1) to boom again. P/Es are already high for (2), but some fuel may be left to lift stocks. ie capital exiting (4) ie. bonds.

Whenever bond rates rise (Bill Gross says that's now) capital value will fall on bonds creating a stampede. (The Fed will have to ramp up current policy and print more money.) So a bit more capital could flow into stocks, but a correction is probably overdue.

So we have (a) rising inflation, ( without a healthy economy to invest in and © policy driving falling currencies, which naturally lifts (3) commodity and consumer prices internally. Which of the following will capital flow into next?

(1) real estate - not significantly IMHO, consumers are unfortunately too indebted already.

(2) stocks - probably yes, but P/E's are relatively high, but could rise further.

(3) consumer prices and commodities - yes, likely, with currency wars and money printing.

(4) long term bonds - um, no.

I think a rise in (3) is likely, and probably (2) on scared money from Europe in the next year or so. However in the meantime...

For some insight into the gold market, here's a good insiders perspective into what drove the two Friday "gold smashes" of April 12 and May 17 - these are largely responsible for where gold is today. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/19_Andrew_Maguire.html

Any technically aware trader knows that price action takes a while to turn, despite whatever the fundamentals may be.

Interesting stuff Jayman - nice Bernanke avatar.

It was not announced by the government and not covered in the media. There were no communications and nobody in the government justified or explained this decision.

It is telling that people giving up US citizenship is at an all time high. Much for the same reasons.

Marc Faber always entertaining and I like watching his interviews on CNBC, but too doomy and gloomy for me.

PS IMHO gold is a deadweight. Prefer income. Income, income, income.

Sure, but with rising bond yields, rising rates and rising inflation the income investments lose capital value like crazy, especially long term treasury bonds - hence warnings from the likes of Bill Gross. This also leads to tightening of credit and liquidity, affecting the economy and income investments.

High inflation has historically been bad for stocks also. (Esp in terms of real purchasing power, like Marc's comparison to Mexico in the early 80s.)

Sure, it hasn't happened significantly yet, but further money printing will be kicked off by it as rising rates will detonate the debt bombs in whatever country it occurs. A vicious cycle just like sub-prime on bank's balance sheets, but this time involving governments. Hence many asset classes heavily rely on QE, low rates, and the status quo. For now and maybe a few more years. But gold will rise well before then. But it may not have fully bottomed yet.

I'm keen to pick up some 99.9% in Bangkok. Where's the best place(s) to go and how high are premiums above spot?

Would prefer an int'l stamp/mint so I can liquidate for a good price overseas also.

Any info on specific shops that still sell 99.9%? Thanks in advance.

'Gold obsession will ruin investors' says Barry Norris

....who also refers to gold as "the world’s laziest investment".

Spot on. http://www.trustnet.com/News/432955/gold-obsession-will-ruin-investors-warns-norris/

(from Trustnet.com an excellent website for investors in Investment and Unit trusts)

Interesting article Yoshiwara but for all the wrong reasons I think.

Using his flawed logic the Dow should be at only 5000. Then he uses the same logic to call gold "expensive". The only thing he proves is that the CPI is a "CP Lie". Anyone who uses CPI "core inflation" for price targets is an idiot. If QE had not pushed up equities, his great performing fund (with figures conveniently quoted since the 2009 lows) would probably be under water.

Here's a much better macro assessment from Marc Faber - free of bullshit. From Hedge Funds World 2012.

He has 25% of his assets in gold as a long term position and also lives in Thailand. A great country for gold buyers and owners.

If you are indeed from Japan you should be very concerned about your country's debt burden. Kyle Bass has a lot to say on Japan, but he may be early in his predictions. These guys may seem like doomsayers but they are a good early warning system (sometimes too early).

But worth paying some attention to. ;-)

I agree with all the above however never believe that gold cannot fall--it could easily fall to $1200. The world banking/government hybrid model fears a runaway gold/silver price because it could induce panic buying and devastate the ability of sovereign debt roll-over.

If this happened I would enjoy it even if it means that the gold stock that I own drops in value by half...you can fool all the people much of the time...but you can't fool all the people forever.

Search bank runs in Greece and Spain...eventually even the sheeple see through the wolf's disguise.

In hindsight, well said. You sure you're not a friend of Larry Edelson? (ex commodity trader) He also lives in Thailand, runs a number of advisory/newsletter services and has been advising his clients to hedge their gold. Until now.

Last week we were advised to lift half our hedge positions. Time to dip feet back into the water.

I'm keen to pick up some 99.9% in Bangkok. Where's the best place(s) to go and how high are premiums above spot?

Would prefer an int'l stamp/mint so I can liquidate for a good price overseas also.