allanos

Still many misconceptions about Bitcoin!  It is not, and never has been, intended to be a currency.  Consequently, it is not, therefore, a threat to central banks and treasuries. If it were, we would have seen a huge amount of regulation by monetary authorities, if not outright banning, by now. This is why the fledgling Libra coin was nipped in the bud.

Zuckerberg already has garnered a vast amount of power and influence for himself, turning his "socal" media platform into a political force.  Imagine the situation if he also introduced his own currency enjoying immediate adoption by 1.3bn FB users. This is an untenable threat for central bankers, the IMF, the World Bank to countenance!

Bitcoin, then, is not "money". It is a global asset, in many respects like gold, yet not having any industrial or adornment use. It does have, however,  the added benefits of portability and divisibility, among others, without any central control and using the transparency of blockchain technology.

Like gold, yet in a fraction of the time it took gold to establish itself, BTC is now a trusted store of value, receiving greater and greater recognition and adoption.

There is a finite supply of Bitcoin - 21 million coins, of which some 18m+ have already been mined. It is estimated that of the mined supply, some 3m Bitcoins have "gone" forever, though, because of missing/ lost passwords by the owners. 

Inflation is predictable, one Bitcoin being "mined" approximately every 10 minutes, mining difficulty being set in the code and adjusted as necessary. The "final" Bitcoin will only be mined in the year 2140. Imagine what the price of one BTC will be, then!

Around 900 coins are mined each day.  However, the take-up by Pay Pal and Square alone accounts for all "fresh" mintage. Purchases of Bitcoin can thus only be made from present "hodlers".

The inflation factor in gold is approximately 2%. However, there is no finite supply, and, as the price rises, so exploration will increase and more gold will reach the surface. There is also sufficient technology to mine asteroids for gold, and other important or rare metals, as demand/price increases. One might then say that Bitcoin is better than gold (it is often referred to these days as digital gold).

All things being equal, and remembering the halving factor, as there is more take-up and adoption of BTC now well under way, if for no other reason, expect the law of supply and demand to kick-in, propelling the price ever higher.

As the "king" of crypto, the fundamentals are sound and the future looks bright. Alt coins, with the exception of ETH, perhaps, are a bit of a <deleted> shoot (gamble)!

The likes of JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have been forced to take a closer look at Bitcoin.  Whilst they have sat on the sidelines, other companies have made huge amounts of money, whilst these two investment banks' clients have not only not prospered, they have gone backwards.

Those same clients would have been asking, "why have you not recommended Bitcoin as a portion of my portfolio"? "Why is my performance lagging the returns that my peers are boasting about"?

JP Morgan and Goldman's are now trying to catch up.

You know, we all look to guidance from somewhere before parting with hard-earned cash. When it comes to investing, we surely do a little research, looking for some direction, a few pointers, and then make a reasoned, informed decision.  Even staying out, sitting on the fence, is a decision made to make no decision, no commitment.

If I look to Pay Pal, with over 300 million users, 22 million merchants, and which has taken a decision to allow transactions to be made in Bitcoin, and which they disburse to their merchants immediately in fiat (US Dollars), one has to be pretty dumb to believe they are running some kind of scam, ponzi or pyramid scheme. They are answerable to shareholders and the US Treasury, and their clients and customers, among others. On the Pay Pal platform, one can buy, sell, or hold Bitcoin.

I take my lead from actions such as this, decisions made by substantial players, and not from a couple of uninformed trolling naysayers on a platform like TVF.

Does this mean that BTC will not have a rocky path? Could it mean that with the best will in the world, BTC might go to zero? 

The prudent among us, no less intelligent than everyone else, have decided that BTC gives us an edge, that the reward/risk ratio (some people call it risk reward, but I believe in looking at a positive appraisal) weighs heavily, even overwhelmingly, in our favour, no doubt a consideration also given by the likes of the Pay Pal management.

Only a couple of years ago, Jamie Dimon, of JP Morgan Chase, was so dismissive of Bitcoin that he threatened to fire any of his traders who were trading it, even if for their personal accounts. JP Morgan Chase is now one of the biggest "shills" for BTC in the market place.

Are we to believe that the likes of Massachusetts Mutual, Guggenheim, Pay Pal, Grayscale and other large organisations and institutions, each of which having to jump through a number of regulatory hoops in order to be given licences, or corporate strictures of their own, have got into Bitcoin on a whim, without thorough research and discussion with appropriate US authorities? I think not.

A new high north of USD $37 800,00 for Bitcoin to start the day.  It is no wonder that many who do not hold it, nor even understand its power, continue to decry it!

And yes, it is overdue a major correction. Pull-backs are healthy. Ask anyone who has traded currencies or stocks or BTC itself.  The price trajectory in the long term is upward, and hence why many of us early-adopters are hodlers.  Basically, the bull run has not really got started yet.

If the US makes it illegal to turn bitcoin into fiat, the UK and EU will follow suit. What do you think will happen to the price of bitcoin?

One of the foundational pillars of BTC is that it is totally removed from central control.  If anything, such hypothetical, but absolutely unrealistic, sanctions by any of the central banks could act as a catalyst to propel the BTC price to go higher, and not lower. Its stand-alone fundamentals would be confirmed. Its momentum now is probably unstoppable, even by the US Treasury, whose Secretary will be out the door shortly, and the best course of action would be to somehow regulate it.  If the US is not careful, it could be left behind in the crypto race.  Max Keiser mentions a "sputnik" moment (1957 and not in the '60's). Crypto market cap now at $1tn could now be that moment for the US.

And more importantly, never forget bitcoin is NOT anonymous. All transactions that you have ever done are recorded in the blockchain. This means you only really need to have one transaction where your identity was identified (such as converting to fiat in an exchange) to tie all your wallets and bitcoin together.

Fear-mongering to try to prove a point. Possible, in theory, but highly impracticable. First things first, it would require tax legislation, which could not be implemented retroactively.

38 minutes ago, eddie61 said:

It’s a silly question.... most people would buy both

Yes, but not a 50/50 split! Perhaps 90/10 in favour of BTC.

I own both. I have mining shares (great upward potential when the gold price starts to run again this year), gold coins, and BTC. There are pro's and cons, but BTC is the future. My gold shares have returned 30%, my coins 45%, my BTC 200%. These three assets represent about 50% of my total wealth.

Bitcoin (BTC) has the greatest utility. It is stored in my hard wallet and can be carried in my pocket. I can't do that with my mining shares or gold coins. Bitcoin is digital gold, possibility only understood by 1% of the people on the planet.

Warren Buffet once said he only invests in something he understands. Ultimately, he changed his tune; he was missing out on FANG stocks. And although he hasn't come out and said he owns Bitcoin, he will have been badly served by his investment team if he doesn't own any.

Institutional adoption is now well under way.  The chief investment officer at Guggenheim believes BTC will go to $400k. That has now become an understated prediction. There is no question that some central banks will adopt Bitcoin to a greater or lesser degree. When they do, stand back . . .

A few months ago I gave each of my grandchildren 200 pounds, admonishing their parents (my children) that they must invest it into BTC for the long term.

In four months, those investments have doubled, and will eventually become a decent nest egg for the kids when they turn 18 or so.

Movement in the USD is the main driver of other currencies' strength or weakness.  The dollar index (DXY) - which measures USD against a basket of other prominent currencies - is down around 10% in the past year.  Covid-19 effects on the US economy, and fiscal stimulus to the tune of trillions of dollars, have contributed to the weakening of the dollar, and look set to continue to do so for many years to come.  A Biden-led Democrat government (a so-called Big Government of tax and spend) is tipped to print ever more money, eroding dollar buying power well into the future.

With such a fluid situation for the covid pandemic in both Thailand and the United Kingdom, I would say that whatever rules or regulations prevail in both of these countries currently may well have changed dramatically by the middle of next year.  The situation is dynamic and the goal posts keep moving.  The OP would be better advised to examine his personal situation around Easter next year, I believe, when there ought be less crystal ball gazing and perhaps a little more certainty around.

Posted twice. Second content removed.

Too many variables, including make and model, but, in general, a new car loses around 25% of its sticker price when you drive off the showroom floor.

However, most buyers don't consider the depreciation factor when they buy new; they are "sold" on a particular marque preference, or enticed by the largest discount offering, and do not take into account how both of these will affect the ultimate resale value.

In my opinion, better value is locked in by buying a good late-model vehicle, where first-time discounts and first-year depreciation are largely already factored into the second-hand price. The unexpired portion of the maker's warranty, and service history of the subject vehicle, is also worthy of consideration at this time.

It is false logic to calculate what a particular exchange rate was some lengthy period ago and compare it with the rate one is getting today.  It seems that some are looking at the difference between the old and new rates and then multiply the derived sum by the amount they have transferred to Thailand over x number of years. They then state that they have thus "lost", as the OP put it, such-and-such amount of money over this period.

But exchange rates go up and down, somewhat like a whore's drawers. They fluctuate. It is true to say, therefore, that over the notional period commencing from day 1, the rate has been more favourable at times, less favourable at others, and, of course, will have remained steady for a portion of the time.

It is probably true to say, although I am writing under correction, that a more detailed look at exchange rate "losses" over a lengthy period are actually not quite as dramatic as people like to state.

And relax!  There's not much you can do about these fluctuations, anyway. The THB has an inverse correlation with the USD, and, as the dollar weakens, as evidenced recently by a look at DXY, the Baht will strengthen.

US Treasury stimulus by the Fed has contributed to the dollar's fall, and will continue to do so.  There is a fresh stimulus package waiting at the US Congress, the amount of which will be decided once the balance between the POTUS, the Senate, and the HOR is known, sometime in January, 2021. Whatever the case, it will be in the trillions of dollars, having an adverse effect on US buying power (inflation) and the dollar itself.

How does one hedge against this problem, if you are looking for a store of value? Favourites are silver, gold, (for the last 5000 years) , BTC, (for the last 10 years), ETH, a few other crypto's, and certain commodities.

For those who take no currency precautions whatsoever , please do not squeal when your buying power, in Thailand or anywhere else, continues to fall.

I can't agree with the underlying argument of this thesis. The author states that "balance" implies "equal", in other words the same amount of commitment to work as to lifestyle.  He forgets that for swathes of people, work is not a means to an end, but an end in itself.  Take away work from such people, and you are removing the breath of life. They have an innate sense of self-worth, the contribution they are making to society at large and reap their reward accordingly.  It's not all about money.

Mention is made of Elon Musk working 120 hours a week.  He is not alone.  British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher got by on 4 hours sleep per night. Clearly, people like this get "high" on driving themselves forward. They are born achievers. Surely then, this is a form of "balance" in itself, off-setting work load against the mental and psychological "feel good factor" they derive from it.

The OP suggest one size fits all. However, we are individuals, trying to get out of life what we put into it, in our own unique ways.

About five years ago, I made a half-hearted attempt to return to the UK, and applied to DWP to be recognised as an Habitual Resident, in order to avail of the maximum benefit.  I had to furnish a wealth of documentation, including my passport, but also was interviewed at the place where I was living by an "inspector", where I had to answer a number of questions by the official. Although I was granted Habitual Residency thereafter, subsequently my movements were checked to see whether I was still in the United Kingdom or had left and continued to be paid (erroneously) full benefit.

In the event, I didn't remain in the United Kingdom for long and my pension has been reduced accordingly.

For anyone who watched "Soylent Green", Edward G Robinson's departure was sublime.  

In the over-populated, under-resourced world which we are increasingly moving into, the makers of the movie were possibly extremely prescient.

21 hours ago, worgeordie said:

I sent the wife to the P.O. today to post a Xmas card to the UK.

when she came back,she said she was charged 75 Baht to

post it,not only that she had to put one of those small green

customs declarations stickers on the envelope ,for a xmas card !

 

 She said the lady at the desk said everything has now changed,

well the prices have certainly gone up, last week I posted a letter

to same address 27 Baht,but having to declare a Xmas card......*

I am pleased that's the only Xmas card I will have to post,the rest

will have to be happy with E-cards.          * There must be a Government dept,where they have several civil servants

                                                                           Just sitting there ,their job to think things up to make life more difficult for people.

regards worgeordie

 

 

The Devil makes work for idle hands to do! ????

Someone has correctly pointed out that vaccine effectiveness is perhaps 90-95%, depending upon the originator of it.  10% ineffectiveness, to my mind, is a large enough percentage to indicate that populations would still need to mask-up, socially-distance, hand wash, and take any extra precautions necessary to make sure one is still on the winning side of the infection lottery.

In addition to the logistical nightmare of world-wide distribution, there are some other problems with the vaccines which need to be paid attention to. For instance, the Pfizer one has to be stored at something like minus-80 degrees (I can't remember the exact number), which much of the third world (think India, with its 1.3 bn population) would be hard-pressed to adopt.

In summary, we still have a mighty long way to go.

1 hour ago, me4175 said:

I have an account on nearly all of the local exchanges and IMO Zipmex is the best at the moment. They are trying very hard to drag crypto into the mainstream here. And with their ZipUp program, you gain up to 10% p.a. interest on your crypto, paid out daily, while still being able to sell at any time.

Ten percent is a good return. Luno is only paying 4%. But it means that the exchange is either trading with your crypto for their own account, or loaning out your crypto, both of which comes with higher risk for one's deposited crypto.

Crypto is not a one-way bet. If Zipmex trading is poor, or sub-standard,  or their lending book goes bust because of defaulting borrowers, the exchange is not going to be in business for long.

Caveat emptor!

Mosaic law, and before him, Hammurabi, decreed an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth.

Of course, times were different, civilised, but in a different way to ours.

In modern times, it would seem to be just, and also dissuasive of others contemplating murder, if those found guilty of murder were to lose their lives also.

In the interests of a certain quality of mercy in our age, crimes of passion or where someone is shown to have been mentally unbalanced during the commitment of a murder, might be spared the ultimate sanction.