Martin

'Thai at Heart'said, in post #13:

"In the last week I know of 10 relatives and friends of family who have returned from work in Pattaya area. All were employed in hotels either as reception or waitresses/waiter. "

That is exactly what was predicted recently by a government official, and part of the the possibility that I wrote about in my MA thesis a couple of years ago----Western recession resulting in the contraction of employment in tourism and manufacture-for-export in Thailand.

It is to 'their' villages that people will look when employment in urban areas contracts. And, just as the arising of those employment opportunities caused rural-to-urban migration, so their contraction will cause urban-to-rural flow.

However, it is possible to be optimistic.

Over the past forty years, that rural-to-urban migration has done a lot of social harm to the villages (disrupted families, with kids being brougt up in the absence of their parents, and so on) and it has done social harm in urban areas, too (rising use of cheap brothels causing spread of AIDs, and so on).

It is possible that the reversal of that migration may bring about much reversal of that social harm.

Looking ahead over the next forty years, it is possible to constuct a scenario of the Bangkok poulation reducing at an average of 3% per annum, (though it will come in lurches (like the one that 'Thai at Heart' is reporting), rather than smoothly), and so reducing from the present 10 million to 5 million by 2030 and to 3 million before 2050.

I call it "A smaller and more beautiful Bangkok, with bigger and better Ban Nork".

The interesting thing to watch will be the second wave of urban-to-rural migration.

This first wave will be largely composed of lower-paid workers who have not been gone from their villages for long and who will fit back in relatively smoothly.

But the second wave will contain a lot of middle-class people, looking to construct middle-class lifestyles in the rural areas. I can't foresee them being willing to leave their savings, or their political clout, behind in Bangkok.

We will live in interesting times. (And, as that old Chinese saying points out, it is up to us how we respond to changing times---with spirit, or depression).

Problem is ... in economic good time it would die down and everyone going back to their business ... unfortunately Thailand is going to see unprecedented lay off and thousands (if not millions) people with nothing to do but being angry ... recruiting ground for perpetual unrest ?!

Yes, 'Seneque', there are going to be a lot who lose their jobs in tourism who will feel : "PAD lost me my job".

But also, after a time of protesting the idiots who are not political, or even up to earning a bit of money as paid 'protestors', but relish a 'rumble', start to join in.

In the West, they latch on to football for their 'rumble thrill', but anything will do, and here yellow shirts v. redshirts is available.

It won't all settle down soon, though.

The people of the North and the Northeast know full well that the 'powers that be' in Bangkok have lived fat at their expense, and now the emergent middle-class want to climb on the bandwagon.

Thaksin was clever to work out how to make election success out of it, but the fact remains that he delivered on his promises. I was thinking of that this afternoon in our new district hospital, looking at people in outpatients who, when I first came here, would not have been able to afford their treatmen.

As far as the people up here are concerned, Thaksin was the best Prime Minister that they ever had. (The fact that he 'got up some noses in Bangkok is not something that is held against him here---if anything, it's the reverse!).

There is a four-word phrase that I hear that sums it up: "We not take Chuan".

There are three power groups in Thailand. They are the old elites (which include the army generals), big business (Thaksin+allies who have won the hearts and minds of the poor who were unattended to by the other two groups), and the emergent middle-class.

None can implement its policy, as the other two are against it. One can be openly against, and the other stand by, possibly giving hidden support but pretending to be neutral.

There are also power groups within each of those groups. It makes USA and UK politics look simple.

Basically, it has been going on for 76 years and looks set for at least another generation.

Fortunately, PAD has only wrecked the tourist industry, which was going to go under anyway, due to Western recession/slump/Depression. That is bad, but a ruined rice harvest would have been worse.

The Thai land can feed all the Thai people and they can be housed adequately and they have lots of ways of having fun without having to find more than a modicum of cash.

It'll be messy, and painful for some, but Thailand will cope better than many, many countries.

In fact, we may come to say that when we, who had discovered rural Thailand, said "GoodBye" to globalisation, we could have added "And Good Riddance".

In post #109, 'monkeytunes' asked:

"...why the great need for the change" ?

This was puzzling me, but it may be that, in view of dollar and pound devaluation, they are seeing that quite a lot who met the old conditions may fall short. Hence the (new, I think) stipulation that 'shortfallers' will be reviewed at a higher level than the 'counter staff'.

After all, it could be a load of political hassle if husbands who have been here a long time and become respected members of their communities were being denied the ability to stay. The Immigration Police are independant of politics, and just go by the rule-book that their political masters give them. But a load of pissed-off mia farangraising the matter at political meetings meetings is not what the Minister of Immigration wishes to drop on his political fellow candidates. So better to get some 'damage avoidance' in, by this new procedure.

The other matters may be just 'tidying up' legislation changes.

It is more than two years since we were foreseeing this on this website. Some of us decided to shift our savings into gold.

I don't think that we thought the recession/slump/depression would come quite so quickly as, at that time, the sub-prime timebomb hadn't been heard ticking; but it was clear that the US and UK were running up unsustainable debts, nationally on Iraq and other public sector schemes and individually on credit cards.

"When the USA economy sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold" has been true for so long, and there was no reason why it would be different this time.

However, Thailand is not fundamentally as badly off as many industrialised countries.

There has been a shortage of labour lately in rural areas, as so many (roughly 3 million men and 2 million women) have been away working in the urban areas in factories or construction or tourism. There's accomodation, food, work and fun for them back in their home villages.

Adjustment will be messy and painful, but it is possible here.

However, for more heavily industrialised countries that have been industrialised for so long that rural skills have been lost, read "The Long Emergency" by James Howard Kunstler and shudder.

(If you 'google' it, there is a one page (or maybe two page) review that summarises it.)

Two airports shut down and PAD shot itself in both feet.

As estimated earlier in the week, a million jobs will be lost in the tourist industry as arrivals will be halved. There'll be a million unemployed saying bitterly "PAD lost me my job". That will translate into several million votes lost to the Democrats.

(I know that the tourist industry was going to suffer from Westerners in their recession cutting out holidays, but that won't register. It will be "PAD lost me my job" all round.)

He is on pretty safe ground to say the supporters of the present government, howsoever they re-form, can win the next election.

Yesterday's calculation by an official that the tourist industry will shed 1 million jobs means that there will be a lot of voters well pissed-off with PAD. Some of them, and some of their family members, may have voted Democrat before but won't be inclined to do so next time.

Up here there is little support for the Democrat Party anyway, as the general feeling is, in the words of my wife, "We not take Chuan", but elsewhere the blame for job losses that will fall on PAD may well cost the Democrats seats that they would otherwise have won.

""Tourist arrivals this year will fall from the 15.4-million target to 13.5 million. Next year it could be only 6-7 million. This would have a serious impact on tourism and related industries such as restaurants and spas, and over one million workers could lose their jobs," he said. Olarn said it would take a month to clear all stranded tourists, who now exceeded 100,000."

One million workers out of a total population (kids, workers. and oldies) of 63 million is a lot.

PAD have probably wrecked the Democrats prospects for the next election by this.

Don't expect the baht to fall, though.

Thailand's fundamentals are sounder than those of the USA or the UK.

Thailand can feed its populace and house them adequately without any imports whatsoever of food or fuel.

Very soon the export price of rice will go up big way, as decreasing availability of chemical fertiliser (for which the feedstock is natural gas) start to hit the output of the big agri-busness farms worldwide.

Thai farmers can grow rice with little or no fertiliser, so Thailand can feed itself and export a lot. Even when the price of rice was low, the exports of rice contributed more to GDP than tourism.

Expect the pound and dollar to fall more than the baht relative to whatever basket makes up the new reserve currency. (Read "The Long Emergency" by James Howard Kunstler for predictions of circumstances that will crash the dollar and, similarly, the pound and euro.)

I have just noticed this topic on the list of 'Recent...'.

Getting back to the OP, doesn't this behaviour exist in every culture?

In every group of humans, isn't there a range from 'congenitally-exploitive' through 'merely selfish' to 'mixed' or 'neutral', to 'generous, to 'congenital givers'?

And don't some of the 'congenitally-exploitive' try to pretend to be 'congenital givers' in order to entrap their prey?

Isn't it so much a part of the range of human natures that the Romans said: "Caveat Emptor"?

"2. Thailand is suffering the karma of its Bangkok and Central Thai ethnocentric injustice towards the Lao-speaking Isaan people over many, many years. This has improved over the past 30 years or so, but until recently (and still to some extent) Isaan people have been the butt of contempt and neglect. Some of this has been at the hands of their local grandees, who've benefitted by their Bangkok and government-based networks, but generally the Bangkok Thais have not seen their Isaan compatriots as equals. Now they're reaping the harvest of bitterness and mistrust."

That is a very exact, and well-phrased, summary; except that we don't do bitterness----just distaste and disdain----and get on with harvesting the rice.

It is an ill wind that blows no good, however.

I was recently hurrying down to Khon Kaen an€d got caught in a radar trap.

It was open-and-shut; as there is no way of maintaining that 147 kph is 'only a bit' over the limit!!

However, when the traffic cop asked "Pood Thai, mae?", my reply of "Phum Farang Isaan. Farang Isaan mae pood Thai. Farang Isaan pood Lao!" (which means that a northeastern farang doesn't speak the language of those thieving buggers in Bangkok), he gave an approving laugh and let me go.

In any industrial action, such as a strike against an employer, or protest against a legitimate power, such as an elected government, Rule 1 is "Maintain the sympathy of the public".

PAD has taken the risk of losing that by cutting off Bangkok from air travel.

We may well come to look back on this week as the one where PAD started its self-destruction.

For those of you who cannot get domestic flights:

Here is your chance to discover how good are the modern coaches!!!

I often pop down to Krung Thep for a Conference at a University or in the Convention Centre, and gave up flying down over a year ago. The cheap airlines were a load of hassle and I lost my money if I needed to change my flight, and Thai got expensive.

So now I use the Chan Tour Udon-Mo Chit service, which picks me up at Kumpawapi; or I take the ordinary bus to Khon Kaen and transfer to the Nakonchaiair KK-Mo Chit service.

I come back with Chan Tour, which drops me off in my home village of Non Sa-at.

The seats are as big as Business Class on a plane, and I get a lot more reading done, as I don't have all the moving around of checking in at the airport etc.

Travelling on the surface over land is the winner when I go down to Singapore, too. It's a superb train journey. I learn something new every time.

All these calls for interest rate CUTS are badly thought out.

They rest on what happened in 'overheatings' that corrected by'recessions' when (for the past 200 years) economies were being underpinned by successive discoveries of deposits of fuels and ores that were easily worked. Particularly, discoveries of oil.

We are now in a different ballgame. Those days that we enjoyed are going fast, or (in some ways) already gone. This recession is completely different, in that it has to be adjusted to permanently, not just temporarily.

There are strong arguments for 'getting on with the pain' lest masking its symptoms makes for a harder situation later than would occur if those symptoms were not masked for a little while.

'Getting on with the pain' would point to PUTTING UP interest rate. In fact, it may be the only way to reduce the dangerous indebtnedness that has resulted in this debt crunch (for which the term 'credit crunch is but a euphemism).

Teresa Watangase is no idiot. She is, in fact, a highly knowledgeable woman, with (as we say in Yorkshire) 'a lot of oil in her can'.

I know it goes against the prejudices of many members of ThaiVisa, but top Thais are as bright as top Brits or top Yanks. They work in a different culture, that's all.

".....projected the country's economy would grow 3.3 per cent next year...."

A meaningless calculation.

'GDP' everywhere is a Grossly Delusional Parameter, but particularly so in Thailand where so much goes on that is not counted in calculating GDP. For instance, a large proportion of the food eaten by the people doesn't count, as they grow it themselves and eat it themselves and it evades the statistics-gatherers.

Change is not necessarily for the worse.

I think that Buddha's philosophy teaches us to say "Change is." That is, whether any thing is a good thing or a bad thing (or a mixture) depends on our reaction to the change.

Many of the jobs that are being lost, as lack of orders from abroad causes manufacture-for-export to contract, were jobs that Thailand 'bought' at the expense of grave disruptions to families', and communities', lives.

(I recently visited a village where every one of the fathers had been working away. Even the village head man (poo yai baan) had been just coming back from Rayong for one day each month to sign his name and collect his stipend. Every child in the village was basically 'unfathered'. Fortunately, that village managed to pull itself together. It is still largely cashless, but the people say: "Not poor now. Still no money, but not poor".)

It is quite possible to construct a feasible scenario of Thailand benefitting in 'social capital' from what it loses in 'monetary capital'.

Thailand's fundamentals are sound. Because of its size and clement climate, it can grow enough food to feed its population and can house them adequately.

Many countries are facing not being able to do that.

In "The Long Emergency", James Howard Kunstler casts doubts on America's ability to achieve it for much longer.

Thank goodness for that Thai-Scot, Senator Veechai ("Cabbages and Condoms"), who campaigned successfully to get the people of Thailand to discipline their human proclivity to breed and, so, to keep population growth within bounds.

Yes, we see that there are big changes ahead, like when black clouds are gathering; but rain is actually a blessing as well as uncomfortable, and black clouds have silver linings.

"Thai rice .... is mostly imported to feed the Filipino guestworkers".

It is a reducing demand, then, as so many Filipino guestworkers have been brought in for construction work, which is now a 'bursting bubble' in the Gulf. However, when they go back to the Philippines, that will produce greater need for imports of rice there; and the Philippine Government can be expected to have trouble managing that.

There is a parody of Grey's Elegy appropriate to the Dububble:

"Full many a tower is built to be unfilled,

and a waste of capital in the desert air."

"Does anyone seriously think he does this for the good of the Thai people?"

But "the Thai people" are many and varied, and have many different views as to what would be 'good' for them. And, in this matter, 'good' is like the economists' use of the word 'goods' in that it includes a lot of things that many would argue are 'bads'. ("One man's meat is another man's poison.")

Broadly (or very, very broadly) speaking, it seems possible to group them politically into five groups: old power; new business power; emergent middle-class power; don't know/not sure; don't want to know".

The political system (i.e. the system for deciding the policies of country) is somewhat frustrated since it is dominated by the struggle for ascendancy between the first three (each of which has internal struggles for ascendancy going on within it). As it stands at present, there are 'good' reasons for any two of the three frustrating the third.

Obviously, in view of the rules of the forum, we cannot properly discuss this in any more detail.

However, since the fourth and fifth groups are so large (though there is little for the media to report about them), it is possible to be optimistic that predictions that there will be an advent of civil war are unduly pessimistic.

Foreigners finding loopholes in the law so that they get power over local people can be social dynamite.

But this is the sort of stuff that we are going to see a lot of. Suddenly, many Governments in the 'developed' world are waking up to the fact that they are going to find it increasingly difficult to ensure enough food for their populations.

Lee Kwan Yew in Singapore had seen it coming over twenty years ago. In a discussion with some students in New Zealand, he pointed to the quite-possibly quite-short number of decades that Singapore might be able to go on (in his graphic phrase) "earning enough foreign currency each month to buy next month's food and fuel".

At a time when I was visiting Singapore from Brunei, there was a story (possibly true, possibly exagerated) that the beef ranch that Brunei had bought in Australia was bigger than Brunei itself. In casual conversation with a member of the Singapore Cabinet it came up, and his reaction was: "How I wish we could own at least one, preferably several, rice farms in Thailand that were bigger than Singapore". (Singapore island is only about 500,000 rai in area, or 100 times bigger than Khon Kaen University campus).

Peasant Revolts used to happen over no more provocation than this, and as 'LaoPo' says on the Rice Farmers thread, it is local people who are positioned to wreak havoc on foreigners' holdings if the general community feeling is that it is appropriate to 'turn a blind eye' to a few folk going missing from the village for a few hours in the night.

"One major strike amongst angry farmers/workers and ......Ooooops...NO rice and VELY BIG ploblems for the investors.

Risky stuff for investors."

This is the sort of stuff that we are going to see a lot of. Suddenly, many Governments in the 'developed' world are waking up to the fact that they are going to find it increasingly difficult to ensure enough food for their populations.

Lee Kwan Yew in Singapore had seen it coming over twenty years ago. In a discussion with some students in New Zealand, he pointed to the quite-possibly quite-low number of decades that Singapore might be able to go on (in his graphic phrase) "earning enough foreign currency each month to buy next month's food and fuel".

There was a story (possibly true, possibly exaggerated) that the beef ranch that Brunei had bought in Australia was bigger than Brunei itself, at a time when I was visiting Singapore from Brunei. In casual conversation with a member of the Singapore Cabinet it came up, and his reaction was: "How I wish we could own at least one, preferably several, rice farms in Thailand that were bigger than Singapore". (Singapore island is only about 500,000 rai in area, or 100 times bigger than Khon Kaen University campus).

Peasant Revolts used to happen over no more provocation than this, and as 'LaoPo' says, it is local people who are positioned to wreak havoc on foreigners' holdings if the general community feeling is that it is appropriate to 'turn a blind eye' to a few folk going missing from the village for a few hours in the night.

Wow. Isn't he knowledgeable?

He knows it is 196,167 people needing 223,389 blankets, and that they didn't miss one out, so it is not 196,168 needing 223,390 blankets.

I suppose that it is such precise mastery of his remit that makes him 'head of the office'.

"Now all we need is more tinfoil hats..... "

Sorry to be slow to come back to this thread, 'OlRedEyes', but my e-mail alert facility seems to have packed in.

It is (as my signature says) much a matter of personal inclination as to how we see this enormous change in our ways of life.

I understand that some see it as something nasty coming from 'outer space' and that we should guard against it (or try to deflect it) with a tinfoil hat.

My own view is that it was inevitable, and the sooner we get on with accepting that life is going to be different (frugal and thrifty, rather than frenetically consumerist), and welcome the good aspects of that, the better.

Being very old, it comes easily for me to say that, since I can remember my greatgrandparents and grandparents being happy people, although they had very liitle (apart from a good stash of savings against 'rainy days') because they thought it was unwise to buy things that they didn't really need.

I think the children of today (my greatgrandchildren's generation) will adopt thrift, frugality, and living-within-their means, as virtue that they can be proud of, and be happy with their lot.

It is going to be a big challenge to their parents' and grandparents' generations to make such a chage in their outlooks, and lifestyles, though. However, humans in the past have shown themselves as very adaptable (towards good as well as towards evil) so maybe they'll manage better than I expect.

As to the topic of the thread, anybody buying shares in the Stock Market at present should be braced to see their re-sale value fall a long way yet. And the only ones that will recover will be those where the firm starts to make good earnings in the future. (On the range from hopeful to unlikely, I would put oil and gas exploration contractors, like Shlumberger at the 'hopeful' end and all airlines at the 'unlikely' end.)

The long-term prospects for 'long-haul tourism' are very bleak.

The travel-section editors, and so their writers, are turning their attentions to the intersting things to do close to home.

I notice that even the massive BA is 'reading the writing on the wall' and scaling back the size of its operation; and it is becoming accepted that the third runway at Heathrow (or 'Thiefrow') will not be built.

The historians of the future will look at 'long-haul tourism' and see it has having been one of the strange products of the Frenetic Consumerist Era. "They flew over lots of interesting places just to visit some rather boring locations", they will say. "Such was the effect of the mass schooling that conditioned them to be marketable to. It is a pity that it used up so many resources that later generations really needed."

"Economies of the world's developed countries will all be sluggish with the US economy projected to experience 'negative growth' of 0.3 per cent and the Chinese economy to grow 8.5 per cent."

Yes. The 'West' has had the leadership for about 200 years (after the UK had its Agricultural Revolution, and found easily-worked deposits of coal and ores which enabled it to put to manufacturing, and colonizing, those 78% of its population that weren't needed to grow food).

But now, depletion of energy is starting the East back into its former ascendancy.

On fertile land in the sub-tropics, with no need for winter heating or summer cooling, is the place to be, chaps. Lucky, aren't we!

"Some of these high profile cases should be able to get refugee status based on their persecution on ThaiVisa! "

Nice one, 'Scott'.

It is, of course, time to get back to investing as opposed to speculating.

An investment is the purchase of a share of the profits, which come in over theyears.

A speculation is the hope that the purchase can soon be sold on for a higher price; and that, when allied to borrowing the money to make the purchase, is the root cause of the present mayhem in financial matters.

However, it is now difficult to foresee which companies may have good future profits. So expect that there will be a reluctance to purchase shares in those future profits.

There's a lot of 'clearing of the fog' required yet.

But, to pay the 'baby boomers' much of their pensions, shares will have to be sold for whatsoever investors are prepared to bid for them. That 'forced' selling is not going to help to keep share prices up at all.