Abrak

Is it my imagination or does it look like the price of top players will rise further this January? In today's Times they have Chelsea considering a 70m quid bid for 'The Hulk'.

It seems, that despite FFP being round the corner, the number of clubs that are effectively billionaires bling is continuing to increase with PSG, Malaga, Anzhi and Shanghai Senhua being added to the equation.

And even if a player is quite cheap like Cahill, his 120k+ a week wage demands place him well beyond the reach of LFC, Arsenal and Spurs and alike.

If he is found guilty and given a jail sentence then he must be certain to be sacked. Even if he is heavily fined - hardly the sentence the prosecution are looking for, you would think it unlikely that Levy would stand by him.

On what do you base that assumption ?

A. you know Daniel personally

B. your a physic

C. pure guesswork

Do you really think Levy cares if Redknapp has worked a little tax fiddle when he's probaly been at it himself at some stage.

Why come on here with an opinion about something that you know nothing about i.e Levy's mindset .

Actually this trial should be a scorcher. The Revenue has a huge chip on their shoulder about the amount of revenues they are not receiving - be they allocation to offshore pension funds of temporary UK employees (players), agent fees that go missing etc, offshore criminals using it to launder money etc. Then we have the likes of Terry with give us a bung and you can look round the Bridge, say no more wink wink and 'arry with a small paper bag, little tax fiddle, everyone does it say no more attitude. And a few hundred million quid later....

The CPS and Revenue are on the war path, raids at dawn, bilateral crime agreements called upon. Harry calls in the most expensive barrister in the land. Harry's defense is that it was money for an investment (or was it a loan). Now imagine if the Revenue loses that argument. Yes sure we will pay you entirely offshore so that you dont have to pay any tax, just tell them we gave you the money as an investment in the highly unlikely case they find your offshore bank account (P.S. dont be as stupid as that guy Redknapp and then transfer it back into your UK bank account though.)

Now the best barrister doesnt take on a case he thinks he going to lose (ok yes he does if you offer him enough money.) But he will take sheer delight in giving the Revenue the run around. It wouldnt surprise me if Harry got 5 years it also wouldnt surprise me if he got off it entirely. 'Not his account M'Lord, his name is Henry not Harry.' I will certainly be glued to it, popcorn at the ready, all the same.

I set up the Football Business Thread for exactly these type of post's so be a good chap and post on there

I can cope with despair, it is hope I cannot handle.

Bit I will try to help you out and have posted anyway. Will happily post some more.

Well it seems Suarez is out of the Newcastle match. Time for your £35m to shine against his favourite club?

I don't get this old club, or boyhood supporter stuff. If I was playing my brother, who played in a team of my all time heroes I'd still want to win. If you don't want to win, why compete at the top level. It's not like he has nothing to prove, or that he does not have the ability. I just hope the ability comes through, then he will have proved something, and shown commitment to our (and his) cause above all else.

Is his commitment to football...or the betterment of his bank balance? Throw in a few birds for good measure....you tell me....

What sort of birds are we talking about here. The 'pouting star bird' variety or the 'quite frankly I will take anything' type.

Actually this trial should be a scorcher. The Revenue has a huge chip on their shoulder about the amount of revenues they are not receiving - be they allocation to offshore pension funds of temporary UK employees (players), agent fees that go missing etc, offshore criminals using it to launder money etc. Then we have the likes of Terry with give us a bung and you can look round the Bridge, say no more wink wink and 'arry with a small paper bag, little tax fiddle, everyone does it say no more attitude. And a few hundred million quid later....

The CPS and Revenue are on the war path, raids at dawn, bilateral crime agreements called upon. Harry calls in the most expensive barrister in the land. Harry's defense is that it was money for an investment (or was it a loan). Now imagine if the Revenue loses that argument. Yes sure we will pay you entirely offshore so that you dont have to pay any tax, just tell them we gave you the money as an investment in the highly unlikely case they find your offshore bank account (P.S. dont be as stupid as that guy Redknapp and then transfer it back into your UK bank account though.)

Now the best barrister doesnt take on a case he thinks he going to lose (ok yes he does if you offer him enough money.) But he will take sheer delight in giving the Revenue the run around. It wouldnt surprise me if Harry got 5 years it also wouldnt surprise me if he got off it entirely. 'Not his account M'Lord, his name is Henry not Harry.' I will certainly be glued to it, popcorn at the ready, all the same.

I've just read that excellent summary Abrak. Where are you getting 25/1?

Actually I dont bet usually - not as though there is a local bookies at the end of the road.

The odds came from here.

http://www.thesackra...premier-league/

I would also point out that you can get 5/1 odds of Redknapp not being the Spurs manager at the end of the season.

I am tempted to place a bet though (although I would wait a few days to see that Coyle and Kean are safely employed in January.)

Partly because I am also tempted by 40/1 odds of Uruguay winning the World Cup in Brasil. The World Cup when played in SA has always gone to a SA team. And although Brasil and Argentina are favourites they have an ability to fuc_k up. I also like the idea of supporting a team other than England who will undoubtedly prove to be hopeless.

I also think that if Harry is found guilty he will be hung out to dry. It wont be the first time that the press has built up someone only to rip him to shreds. I can see the Daily Star or Sunday Mirror with 'Ooops, Harry just ate my large brown paper bag' headline.

By the way as the previous discussion of Harry's case was a little old. Much of the case against Harry as well as the accompanying documentation is set out here. It mat be a bit more interesting now that the case will come to Court soon. (Also there is next to nothing about the case in the UK press.)

http://thestory.ie/2011/08/03/harry-redknapp-tax-evasion-and-mandarics-offshore-account/

Before anyone asks, the website is Irish because it would have been illegal for a UK website to publish this documentation due to Court imposed restrictions.

I still think odds of 25/1 are pretty good.

I'd be amazed if he was found "not guilty". The CPS obviously think they have a very strong case for him to answer. Apparently, when this trials over, theres more to come!

Well I think quite a lot more will come out at the trial.

For instance, his offshore bank account show other payments to him that are not part of this charge (I posted a link to them earlier in this thread). The charge only relates to Mandaric payments because not only have they got the source of the payments BUT those payments were made by Redknapp's full time employer 'offshore' to 'evade' tax. This is the fraud element. They havent charged him with not paying taxes on the other payments that he received offshore because if they find him guilty of the primary charge it makes the secondary charge meaningless.

In footballing terms, the concept of Redknapp receiving backhanders from his own employer may not seem very serious (it is a large crime as far as the Revenue goes). But where do these payments come from that are not from his own employer?

It is a bit like Al Capone. If you catch a guy robbing a bank you dont charge him with not paying taxes on the proceeds. If however you can find the proceeds and cannot prove he robbed the bank, you charge him with tax evasion.

calm down girls.

Whether scrotum face gets incarcerated is one thing but i'm starting to have nightmares because Ancelloti is clearly on his way to PSG and a certain Mark Hughes is lurking in the shadows. That scares the hell out of me. In three months he could take us back ten years.

Levy is too shrewd for that mate.

Not so sure about that. He wasn't very shrewd in the Martin Jol debarcle. Mindyou, hopefully he has learnt from that because he was a deeply unpopular man at WHL for some time after that.

There seems to be a thirst for guilty verdicts in football at the moment. If I were 'Arry I'd be a very worried man right now.

Losing his position at the club will pale into insignificance alongside a huge fine and possible imprisonment.i

I dont know if you guys remember the Lester Piggott case at the end of the 1980s. It was fairly similar to the is case in many respects. However Piggott cut a deal with the Revenue (an option that is not available to Redknapp because of the early involvement of the CPS.) It included 1m quid penalties. Anyway the funny end to the story is that he tried to pay the taxes and penalties out of an offshore account that the Revenue hadnt previously found. The offer was withdrawn and he got 3 years in prison.

If he is found guilty and given a jail sentence then he must be certain to be sacked. Even if he is heavily fined - hardly the sentence the prosecution are looking for, you would think it unlikely that Levy would stand by him.

On what do you base that assumption ?

A. you know Daniel personally

B. your a physic

C. pure guesswork

Do you really think Levy cares if Redknapp has worked a little tax fiddle when he's probaly been at it himself at some stage.

Why come on here with an opinion about something that you know nothing about i.e Levy's mindset .

He's only giving an opinion alfie. 99% of the posts in the footie forum are about opinion's.

The difference is BJ that most people have an opinion based on something !!!! old Abrak just seems to like talking <deleted> on our thread for the sake of it

Not really.... my opinion is based on the fact that Redknapp is being charged with tax evasion (not tax avoidance) which is fraud. If for instance, Levy was found guilty of the charge he could no longer be a Director or Chairman To Tottenham PLC. I would imagine he has a fiduciary duty that the manager of the club should also be free of any such conviction. Harry has spent 1m quid in legal fees and the CPS 3m quid investigating the matter and I think you are rather naive to consider it a charge for a 'little tax fiddle'.

To quote in the CPS's letter to the US revenue department on this case. 'The maximum sentence for this case is life imprisonment. However, in practice, charges of Cheating the Revenue involving large sums of money can result in sentences approaching 15 years in prison.'

Personally I think you are talking <deleted> when you say that Levy as 'probably been at it himself' but I will admit that you know him far more than I do.

So look if we assume that Coyle and Kean make it through to the New Year. And then that no manager is left in charge of January dealings, only to be sacked in January, shouldnt Harry sit fairly high up there in the race to be the next PL manager sacked.

If he is found guilty and given a jail sentence then he must be certain to be sacked. Even if he is heavily fined - hardly the sentence the prosecution are looking for, you would think it unlikely that Levy would stand by him.

I mention it not because I really wish Harry to be banged up. It just seems to me that the odds - 25/1 (along with David Moyes) - to be the next PL manager sacked - look rather attractive.

Do you still think Andy Carroll's the one for us smokes?

Cheaper than Demba Ba anyway. I heard the Newcastle board drive a hard bargain....

Don't want Demba Ba either. I still think the Leandro Damiao deal is on. Maybe even done.

You know what, my biggest concern last night was that a mans of Brads age with so little to do would fall asleep.

Actually Friedel has been kept pretty busy this season.

As at Xmas he had made the 2nd most number of saves of any goalkeeper in the PL (after Hennessy of Wolves). Pretty impressive for a player well past his pension age.

I see that Carlo Ancelotti is reported as likely to get the PSG job. So it is beginning to look a little thin on the ground for a replacement for Harry. Luckily for you, Hughes is still out of work.

That will learn you.

Bit supercilious that. I hope you're not aiming such obiter dicta at me Abrak old chap.

Absolutely not. Delphinium natare doces.

Will you pay half his wages please? oh and for him to learn his letters?

Look I hope you dont expect LFC to pay his wages we are poverty stricken enough as it is.

I am sure City will help out. It is working out sooooo incredibly well with the loan of Adebayor. In any case, I could have a word and perhaps his girlfriend might just get thrown in for free.

Isn't it just? Sorry my mistake, I thought mjjoobhandles had posted that. "If we take Bridge and Tevez on loan we might come second." Might work...worth a try anyway!

Actually I think they are considering a new game plan.

As you can probably understand the current weakness (to the extent there is one) in City's strategy is that under current rules they are only allowed to have 11 players on the pitch at any one time. Now the obvious way around that is to buy the FA and change the rules. Still who needs to have to handle racist allegations on behalf of the sport. Certainly not in Garry Cook's 11 easy rules to manage football.

So as an alternative strategy I think they might be trying to buy everyone available, then loan them out on the basis they know they cant play against them. Perhaps in January they will buy Modric and Sneijder and then loan them back to Utd and Spurs. That will learn you.

I think you will take 3rd, the way your playing. The only thing I'm not sure about is, what is your depth like in the event of a few injuries?

Been a lot of discussion about this. Replacements for Pav/Bassong and a right midfielder are what we need most now. Maybe cover at LB.

But really even with a couple of injuries we should be good for third....so long as its not Modric, Bale or Adebayor long term...

For your cover at left back, you could consider discussing the problem with City who have 7.

Wayne Bridge is apparently 7th choice and you might even get him on a loan.

http://www.dailymail...y-injuries.html

Will you pay half his wages please? oh and for him to learn his letters?

Look I hope you dont expect LFC to pay his wages we are poverty stricken enough as it is.

I am sure City will help out. It is working out sooooo incredibly well with the loan of Adebayor. In any case, I could have a word and perhaps his girlfriend might just get thrown in for free.

You can only beat what is put in front of you and we did it with our second team unlike you against shitty west brom!!

Oh and Arsenal will finish higher than Spurs.

Well your team wasnt that bad - De Gea, Evra, Ferdinand, Evans, Smalling, Anderson, Fletcher, Nani, Wellbeck rooney and Young.

City couldnt fit in Dzeko or Nasri.

Seems like trying to rewrite history. Still it will make a good excuse until the end of the season.

I think you will take 3rd, the way your playing. The only thing I'm not sure about is, what is your depth like in the event of a few injuries?

Been a lot of discussion about this. Replacements for Pav/Bassong and a right midfielder are what we need most now. Maybe cover at LB.

But really even with a couple of injuries we should be good for third....so long as its not Modric, Bale or Adebayor long term...

For your cover at left back, you could consider discussing the problem with City who have 7.

Wayne Bridge is apparently 7th choice and you might even get him on a loan.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2075605/Wayne-Bridge-ignored-Roberto-Mancini-despite-Manchester-City-injuries.html

We're 11th in the league for goals scored if my calculations were correct. The bottom two clubs have scored more than us, but obviously conceded far more.

Obviously our organized play and defense is keeping up where we are but with all the chances we get we just need to start scoring way more goals, and I think it can happen. Need better finishing, better final ball and a bit more luck as well.

5 penalties in all comps this season we've had this season and scored only one! That's got to be the worst percentage of any team in England...

We'll turn it around with the goals. Just incredibly frustrating, though.

Yes. I am sure there is a bit of luck involved - good goal keeping by the opposition, plenty of woodwork etc.

On the other hand if you look at the number of shots on target per game, LFC is firmly in 6th with 5.8 just behind Arsenal and the other top clubs with Spurs leading with 7.1. Seems Suarez in particular is trying to score from impossible angles.

Its kind of irritating at the moment. We are kind of imbetween - not totally <deleted> but not that great either. A bit like purgatory. A subtle Colin Farrell inspired Spurs reference. Oh well, too much turkey at Xmas, I guess.

We will get more than 42 points Abrak,trust me ok

If you look at the bookies forecasts they are currently

City 88.5

Utd 86.5

Chelsea 76.5

Spurs 75.5

Arsenal 72.5

LFC 70.5

It will be good to look back on at the end of the season,i will be surprised if United only get 42 points from a possible 63! won't you?

Well surprised is probably putting a bit strong. You are currently +2 on a ME basis and I expect you to finish +3 which would be 41 points from the remaining 63. Of course the difference between 41 and 42 points is less than the difference between a win and and a draw in an individual match, so I wouldnt really find that result surprising. There is nearly a 20% fixture bias in your matches during the second half of the season so I would be surprised if you you scored more points in the second half of the season than the first.

' alt=''>

Is that your predictions based on you own stats?

Does it take into consideration how well the Ivory Coast might do?

Well everyone has the same stats to work with.

I have to say though that I dont really agree with the premise of fitting the statistical data to a normal distribution in football and then deriving confidence limits from them. In any case I dont attach as much weight to historical data as this guy inherently does.

But it isnt that far off.

I think that both Spurs and Chelsea will do better with Chelsea currently marginally ahead of of Spurs (although that is largely based on a subjective view that Chelsea will use January to buy themselves a break). I do agree with the basic conclusion that it is very much a two horse race. I think City will do marginally better and United marginally worse than the predictions. I dont think this takes into account Ivory Coasts performance but nor does it adjust for Fletcher/Vidic injuries. I imagine it is purely objective.

Wesley Sneijder for Man Utd please.

No chance.

You might be correct, but why do you think so?

After all, he has already changed club several times in his career, and his present club is not exactly firing on all cylinders.

Then again, Italian clubs seem to rarely sell unless they want to.

I reckon he's poor value for what would be a huge fee. No resale value. Plus as you point out Inter are hardly likely to want to sell. He's got four years left on his contract.

I think he might be a bit of a perma-crock too. He has only played 6 league matches all the season and when you are priced at so close to perfection that is the last thing you want.