VegasVic

Many people are betting everything that happiness results from a vibrant stock market or a strong/weak currency or a bull/bear real estate market and forget to just live every day fully and appreciate every moment and above all SMILE!

mdeland, I couldn't agree more, every day that anyone wakes up and is alive and healthy they should appreciate the fact that life is good! Where I think you might be missing the point (I certainly can't speak for all the posters here that either reprint negative articles about the Thai economy, or have opposing views to those that think everything is rosy in the LOS) is that some of these posters that you seem to think only get their happiness out of a bull market or currency fluctuations, are in fact only trying to represent the true state of affairs in Thailand as they live it or as they hear about it in the local or regional media. If the only readers of THAI VISA forum were those living in the LOS then there would not be much need to rebut the "lollipops and rainbows" brigade, because everyone would know firsthand their reality of the current situation in Thailand. This forum however is read by many who have never been to Thailand or who have been before and are thinking about retiring here or making an investment (usually real estate) in the kingdom from overseas. Most of these people are lurkers, they never sign up or if they sign up they rarely if ever post, they are there to try and get factual information on possible relocation or investment, so when some poster tells how he just flipped a BK condo in less than a year and made 500,000baht or another poster says how great the business that he and his wife have and how they are so busy they just can't keep up with demand, then the reader overseas would bring away from thise posts that Thailand must indeed be in a boom cycle and that is why the baht is so strong. I don't doubt some of the stories about people out there doing well with condos in BKK or Phuket, or about their business doing well in fact I am really happy for them, but the fact remains that Thailand is in a state of economic downturn and the strong baht has more to do with investor speculation than it does with anything that is happening internally. So those of us who might appear to you to be posting negative things about the economy are (for the most part I believe) in reality just trying to give the reader overseas a more accurate perspective of what is going on with the Thai economy. It pains me to hear stories of foriegn investors getting caught up in the speculative condo frenzy in Miami Florida, ( granted they should have done more due dilligence) and if there were a forum that those people could have gone to in the states like THAI VISA is for Thailand, I would have gladly warned them of the ridiculous valuations in that particular market in the US just as I try to let the foriegn reraders here know what is really going on with the bahts rapid rise in value and my personal experience and now the medias coverage of what is actually going on with the Thai economy.

Any ideas as if the baht will creep back to 40 as many members here and some Thai analyst predicted in the papers?

Jimjim, If anyone tries to tell you that they know exact date when the baht will begin to tumble back you can be assured that they are FOS. It might come as early as the end of summer or it could be early next year, but when those investor redemtions begin to happen and the market is flooded with baht, the adjective "creeping" will not begin to explain what will be going on with the baht excahange rate. As quickly as the baht went fron 42/1USD to 32/1USD last year on the international currency exchanges, the move back will occur even faster. As far as the US dollar goes, it has been shorted now for over three years by goerge soros and many other large hedge funds, and because the weak dollar has lowered unemployment, increased corporate porfits and sent most of the major stock exchanges in the US to record highs, the US government has been glad to accept the gift of a weak dollar, but as all things go in cycles (and as the trade deficit shrinks) the US dollar will also rebound at some point (if it was up to the EU it would occur tomorrow, the weak dollar is killing the european export sector) and if this were to occur in conjuction with the baht coming back to earth then you would likely see the baht/dollar at somewhere in the 45-50 range. Personally I don't think that these two situations will occur simultaneously, the baht will likely come tumbling back down long before the dollar starts to strenghten and the dollar strenghtening cycle will take years not months. So in answer to your question YES! I would imagine that the baht/dollar exchange will gravitate back to where it has been over the last few years in the 40-42 range, as the pendulum swings back you might see it briefly hit 45 or higher, but without the dollar strengthening concurrently it will likely revert back to that 40-42 range which will be one of the saving graces of the Thai economy at that point, along with hopefully a well thought out constitution and a democratically elected government. P.S. For those posters who don't believe in hedge funds and private equity moving markets and think that I may just be throwning big bad george soros's name in the mix here, all you have to do is google georgie boys name and you will find out that he has been shorting the U.S. dollar for at least 3-4 years now!

>>Lehman Brothers forecast Thai economy has bright future

Hey, what do Lehman Brothers know compared to the doom-and-gloom brigade on TV, some who would call even Rockerfeller a dumb investor?

Surely Lehmans should go down a few cheap beer bars and get their economic advice there instead?

Ah ah ah, you are so naive.

In march 2000, Lehman, Goldman and all the "analysts" were saying about Nasdaq : "go for it, it's going up". Do you remember ? I guess no.

And Enron ? Just before the collapse, it was still "go for it baby". When Enron share had already dropped 99%, only 1 of 14 analysts rated it a sell, and 5 still rated it a buy or a strong-buy (source Thomson Financial/First Call).

So for myself, as a good contrarian, when Lehman Brothers "forecast Thai economy has bright future", well it's obvious, it's really time to go out !

You should know that. Especially if you admire Rockefeller.

This very wise man... decided it was time to liquidate his Wall Street holdings in October 1929 when he was given... a share tip by his shoe-shine boy ... Just before the big crash.

So don't mix apples with bananas please.

Cclub, You beat me to the punch! If Lehman is indeed coming out now with a rosy forcast for Thailand after the military takeover, civil unrest, baht appreciation more than twice the norm for SE asia currencies, and an economy in decline, then it can mean only one thing they are trying one last ditch effort to prop things up so their fund managers and their clients can exit before the inevitable crash. If Palm and some of the others here are so naive as to still actually think that the Thai economy is doing well and the strong baht is a good thing for Thailand then I guess they will just have to watch and learn a hard lesson as things unravel over the coming months.

i hope the baht gets stronger.....so when i send it out i get a better rate

pre 1997 crisis levels, the baht was 25 baht to the dollar...bring it on, come back!

Thats the attitude champ! Lets get that baht down to 25 and bring an absolute depression to the Thai export sector (not to mention tourisim and long term investment) and the economy as a whole, just so you can make a few dollars. By the way take a look at what 25 baht bought back in 97 and what it buys now, back then the 32sqm coffins in Pattaya were about 350K or so and now they are around 1.5 million. I guess the only solace is that the TB will see 45 vs. the US dollar long before it ever sees 25 again!

actually a strong baht is better for long term investment for foreigners investing in thailand-when they cash out and deposit funds abroad they will get more...initial investment will cost more, but there will be a break even point....then after that their profits will be higher....thais will now also have a better opurtunity to invest abroad...

the cost for industrial materials which have to be imported to manufacture a finished product will also fall, allowing thai companies to purchase in higher bulk quantities being more competitive in certain sectors...

cost to send students abroad will also fall, giving the country a bigger brain bank.

the pattaya phenomenon is driven mainly by specualtion to provide housing for foreigners....foriegners arent the primary force behind the real estate market.

the tourism sector will not be heavily affected by the strengthening currency, everthing here is so cheap already, its negligible for tourist staying for less than a week.

they wll simply choose lower cost accomodations which are widely available , with the same level of ammenities.

so you say , importers may go to countries like vietnam, indonesia, cambodia to get their goods instead....heres a hint, thai companies are already there running the show.

the country doesnt revolve around agricultural products alone....

for example fresh cut orchids have such a ridiculously high profit margin for importers its ridiculous.... 75 cents cost...$39.25 gross profit per bunch (retail)...1 bunch consist of 20 stems....i guess paying $1.25 is really going to kill their profits...

for handmade goods there are already cheaper countries than thailand, but with lower quality which is what drives people back to thailand.

WOW, now that is one heck of a spin job! By any chance have you ever been a spokesperson for any political campaign? I can remember one of my economics professors telling me once that liars can figure but figures don't lie, he certainly was a wise old man. Lets see now, where should I start with your house of cards, OK how about Thais investing abroad. Yes for the Thai elite (less than 5% of the population) the strong baht will allow them to go further in their offshore investments, so I guess they will get richer but the other 95% of Thais will just have to pay the price (loss of jobs, fewer tourist dollars and more difficult to sell their products abroad). Now we move on to cost of raw materials and you do have a point here albeit a marginal one. If the Thai exporter does import lets say 60% of the raw materials that make up his finished product then yes his finished product is slightly cheaper to produce than it was 1 1/2 years ago, the catch here Einstien is that in order to sell that product abroad competitivly with the baht as strong as it is, this exporter must cut prices in excess of the savings he made on importing the raw materials the end result is a lower profit margin and the loss of jobs here in thailand which is what is currently happening. Now that was the best case scenario for exporters, most exporters do not import 60% of their raw materials from overseas and in the case of agriculture the number is closer to 0%, these sectors are getting crucified by the strong baht!!! The cost to send students abroad to study will indeed fall, but then again its only those 5% of Thais that will benefit from this, those same Thai elite that are reaping the benefits from a stronger baht by taking advantage from investing abroad(and thereby not investing that money in their own country!) as you wisely explained. I will grant you that Pattaya , Phuket and Ko Samui are speculative real estate markets that have been forming a bubble for a while now, the Thai baht is also in a speculative market (currency trading) that is forming a bubble , but you fail (or refuse) to see this. Here are the hard cold facts my friend: Housing developers across the country are lowering their prices 10-20% and the houses are still not selling, the Thai export sector is getting hurt badly (except for I guess those orchid growers?) , unemployment is rising and along with it domestic spending is falling (rather rapidly). The BK Post has been sugar coating the situation for a while but even they are now begining to report the undeniable fact that the Thai economy is not in very good shape and in fact is getting worse. All you have to do is open your eyes and look around, read the BK Post and The Nation on a regular basis or better yet go to Pattaya, Phuket, Hua Hin, Ko Samui, and Chiang Mai and ask the taxi drivers, the merchants, the guesthouse and hotel operators, the retuarant and bar owners(and bar girls), the construction workers and realestate developers, the realtors and they will tell you just how bad the economy is and how the tourist dollars are down this year. Of course if you really want to see the devestating effect of your strong baht then travel through an area that doesn't have the tourist dollar to fall back on, like Issan where in any given village there are family members who were sending home money from their job in BK or Chonburi but have been laid off and are now back on the farm and their only means of income is agriculture which has been devestated by the strong baht and many of them are trying to sell their land and homes but there are no buyers, it is a truely sad situation. So please, go on and tell me more about how the strong baht is a good thing and while you are at it maybe you can spin a story about how global warming is a good thing as well.

The articles that you post here give the readers a far more accurate picture of what is going on in the Thai economy than the plethera of posts from the rose colored glasses brigade, many of whom actually think that the strong Thai baht is a good thing and an indicator of a strong Thai economy.

Can you please give us some examples of these posters who have actually said this?

Well, Backflip above said the unsold units would be rebranded as rentals..and someone else said most of the 90,000 ++ psm places were 'sold out'.

Anyway, my original post was questioning what happens to those 100% 'sold out' buildings when/if it becomes clear that speculators were the buyers, but had no plan to ever complete the purchase (rather just pay small deposit then low monthly payments for 24 months while under construction - gambling that they could re-sell (flip) to someone before the final 90% comes due).

Will we see construction stop when the building is nearly completed and the bank stops giving money to the developer because the 'buyers to flip' have dropped out at the final hurdle?

Only a developer with deep pockets or a reluctant banker/financier would enter the rental market in this way IMHO.

Thaigene2, We have already seen construction stop and developers cancell future projects. A good example of this is in todays issue of the Nation, the article on TCC Capital Land that states that TCC had planned and approved 10 billion worth of projects this year, but due to the sluggish demand in the real estate sector the are scraping 7 billion worth of their projects and only going through with 3 billion worth. This is not an isolated phenomenon, as the year goes on you will see other large developers like TCC cancell future projects as well. As you so insightfully put forth in your earlier post a good portion of the puchases in the upscale condo sector are speculators and when they compute what their actual return is likely to be, given the current state and near term prospects of Thai real estate I would imagine that you are correct that a good many of them will cut their losses and move on leaving the developer with a lot of empty 90,000-100,000baht/sqm condos. It would be difficult to imagine that these condos will be turned into serviced apartments as a few posters have indicated, because to get any sort of decent ROI they will have priced themselves out of the market. It will be interesting to see what happens to some of these projects that are in mid-construction or just getting underway.

The french guys get together for film/discussion nights at the Aliance.

They don't really spend much time discussing films. They mostly spend a lot of time insulting Bush and praising Jerry Lewis movies.

U.G., I have to admit that in the past I have not been a big fan of most of your posts, but this is definately a good one. You left out that they praise Michael Moore movies as well!

some excerpts that stood out for me were..............

RISKY BUSINESS

Clouds on Thailand's horizon

March 27

"The Bank of Thailand has in recent months spent more than a trillion baht to keep the currency weak. "

"Thailand's instability-driven collapse of domestic demand is also plainly discernible in sliding real investment growth. "

"Moreover, further devaluation of the US dollar could lead to the depreciation rather than appreciation of the Thai baht, as investors are forced to unwind their yen carry trades. That means that in the months ahead both Thai asset prices and the military-led government could tumble in unison. "

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/IC27Ae02.html

Bingo, I am glad that I had some time on my hands tonight to look back at some of the TV posts of the last month or so, because it is the first time that I have come across this article, thanks! This is a very insightful and astute piece of business journalisim about the current situation in Thailand. I think the telling figures will be the numbers from the 2nd and 3rd quarters of CY 2007. Government numbers of the macro economy often are lagging indicators of how the economy was doing 6 months prior, the reality of what has been going on in the Thai economy over the last 6 months will likely not show up in the figures until October when Q3 CY07 numbers are made public. On the micro economy front, the farmers, construction workers, taxi drivers, business owners, tour operators and realtors can tell you right now what is happening to the Thai economy and it isn't very pretty. The weakening U.S. dollar is the fuel that feeds the robust U.S. economy and the record levels that most of the major stock exchanges in the U.S. have hit in recent days, and while U.S. treasury officials say in public that they want a strong dollar, the reality is that behind closed doors they are ecstatic about the current dollar valuation especially against the euro and the pound, so I would imagine that unless the european central banks intervine on behalf of their exporters, that the weak dollar will be here for a while. I want to take this opportunity to thank you for taking the time to post this article as well as the many other business articles that you regularly post on this forum. The articles that you post here give the readers a far more accurate picture of what is going on in the Thai economy than the plethera of posts from the rose colored glasses brigade, many of whom actually think that the strong Thai baht is a good thing and an indicator of a strong Thai economy.

VegasVic,

thanks for the note. I like to add a does of reality to the actual situation in Thailand as opposed to the "Thailand is only the land of rainbows and lollipops mentality". Thailand is going nowehere quite quickly and will worsen as the global economy worsens. Thailand is a fine country, but not right now and will not for the forseeable future (as far as economically and politically). I will keep posting relevant business articles and let the dreamers flame away as opposed to posting useless rhetoric as some of the dreamers and those in denial.

Bingo, Even those in denial will have to face the music very shortly here. There will be global slowdown by years end as you point out and the hinge point as to if this actually leads to a worldwide recession is the U.S. consumer. The numbers from Wallmart this past week show that the U.S. consumer is already tightening their spending. The key point that isn't often spoken about is the indebtedness of the average U.S. consumer, which is at record levels. Should the high risk home mortgage market (which is currently in a meltdown in the states) bleed over to the regular market then I fear that the U.S. consumer would be forced to pull back even further in their spending habits and this could definately lead to a worldwide recession, and given the weakened state of the current Thai economy this could be an absolute nightmare for Thailand. On a positive note I do feel that the rhetoric from the board of governers of the BOT on friday could mean some substantial rate cuts in the very near furure which will weaken the TB to a degree, but even this is just a stop gap measure. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

i hope the baht gets stronger.....so when i send it out i get a better rate

pre 1997 crisis levels, the baht was 25 baht to the dollar...bring it on, come back!

Thats the attitude champ! Lets get that baht down to 25 and bring an absolute depression to the Thai export sector (not to mention tourisim and long term investment) and the economy as a whole, just so you can make a few dollars. By the way take a look at what 25 baht bought back in 97 and what it buys now, back then the 32sqm coffins in Pattaya were about 350K or so and now they are around 1.5 million. I guess the only solace is that the TB will see 45 vs. the US dollar long before it ever sees 25 again!

more flip flopping.......the indecision of this group truly is unbelievable.....

BoT not removing 30% withholding on inflows

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) reiterated Friday it has no plan to remove the 30 percent reserve requirement on certain inflows in the near future.

According to BoT Assistant Governor Nitaya Pibulratanagit, the central bank will not end the 30 percent reserve requirement anytime soon, as the central bank is still concerned about current inflows into the Thai stock market. The 30 percent reserve requirement still have some psychological impact, to keep the baht from appreciating even further.

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...newsid=30033968

Taksin says he wants to come to stand trial, but does anybody really think the present military dictatorship ruling Thailand at the moment really want him to? I would think absolutely not. They do not want him to stand trial. They do not even want him back in Thailand. The reason is because they know they have no credible case against him and their own status is illegal anyway.

Outstanding post! Be careful though, lately it seems that stating the obvious on some of these threads will get an unruely mob after you. The very last thing that this current military regime wants is for Taksin to reenter the country, and they most certainly do not want to put him on trial as the international press would would have an absolute field day with the proverbial gang that couldn't shoot straight. A couple months back I felt that fall elections were a 80% likelyhood, now I think that it may be less than a 50% chance and as the summer wears on those odds are likely to diminish sadly enough. The ecomony is a key factor here, if the baht does not do an about face relativly soon and the economy continues to weaken then the possibility of another coup by years end may be more likely than elections.

2 days and no responses! Seemed a great opportunity for all the "Merchants of Doom" to vindicate their views!

There is no need for any of us to rub it in, many of us could clearly see what was happening with the economy and the real estate sector we were merely pointing out the obvious. There real estate market (outside of Bangkok and some select areas in Phuket) in Thailand is dead, even in Pattaya! I recently checked out a real estate website in Chiang Mai and there were 17 price reductions on properties just in the last month, so much for the idea that thais don't lower there asking price and will wait for years to get the price they want. I am certain that in the past this may have been true, but there are a lot of properties on the market and very few buyers at this time (not to mention a looming credit crisis) so I would expect to see many other sellers lowering there asking prices in the months to come. Hopefully by this fall there will be elections and a new constitution, and that coupled with the retracement of the baht should at least bring some speculators back in to buy up some condos, however if the laws don't change regarding foriegners purchasing a home then the single family residence sector will continue to stagnate. As far as the "merchants of doom" thing goes, I can't speak for everyone who has been posting what you probably consider negative information about the Thai economy and real estate markets, but I think that as the year goes on the readers of this forum will realize that we had a better handle on the situation than the "rose colored glasses brigade".

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

Highdiver, You hit the nail on the head! I have posted multiple times on this subject but most people here just don't get it. When the hedge funds decide to get out of their investments and change their baht back in to euros and U.S. dollars then the Thai baht will do an absolute backflip. People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. A good example was the democratic debate in south carolina yesterday, the moderator asked john edwards and hillary clinton the same question about what they would do to institute some oversight on the hedge fund industry if elected and both candidates completely dodged the question and talked about something else. The next question in the debate was directed toward chris dodd (a senator from conneticut that the hegde fund industry has in its back pocket) and you could see senator dodd sweating bullets thinking that he might be getting the same question on the hegde fund industry, but sadly the moderator seeing that he was not going to get a straight answer about hedge funds from these candidiates, changed the line of questioning and you could see the immediate relief on chris dodds face. Just as Jesus overturned the carts of the moneychangers in the temple, we need someone in power with a strong loyal following to turn over the carts of the hedge funds and watch as the cockroaches scrurry, if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

if you have proof that this is actually happening, then, let us all see it. otherwise, all this conspiracy stuff is old stuff, and the only thing it does is make foreigners more anti-american.

on the other hand, since you seem to think this is true, perhaps you can tell us all what thailand can do to stop this so-called conspiracy being implemented by evil rich americans?

your conspiracy theories are making it so that win or lose, america will look like the one to blame.

jesus, can't someone in this world take the blame for something THEY did for once?

yeah. maybe I am naive about all the evil in this world. so, please enlighten me. but some more constructive thought would help instead of just all the accusations. thank you.

Nick, First of all there is no conspiracy theory going on here, hegde funds and arbitragers have been with us for a while now and their size, strength, and political clout has grown into something that would make the tabacco industry evious. Secondly, this is not a uniquely american phenomonon there are many european hedge funds manipulating the thai market as well as many other markets in asia and elseware. Last week on 60 minutes (or maybe it was 20-20) there was a segment on just this, and senator grassley who had the guts to put forward some rather tame hegde fund legislation on the senate floor was interviewed and said that within 10 minutes of introducing his bill on the senate floor he was contacted by multiple parties(both other senators and lobbyists) to kill the bill. In this same segment it was made clear that on multiple occasions senator dodd has killed similiar bills and then 60 minutes went on to say that dodd recieved over 5 million dollars from the hedge fund industry in his last campaign. These are the hard cold facts my friend, I only wish it was just a bad dream or some bogus conspiracy theory. By the way americans are not to blame but instead are victims of these hedge funds as well. Perhaps when the valuation on the baht does reverse dramatically and some journalist can lay out just how all this occured, then perhaps you will not be so naive the next time around.

ok. I am not disbelieving you. especially if 60 minutes brought the subject up.

...if some senators and some lobby groups tried to stop this hegde fund legislation, then, these people need to be identified before anybody can do anything. so, the big question is - can you identify who these senators and lobbyist are?

on the same token, since you say that there are american and european hedge funds who are causing all these evil deeds here in thailand, can you identify them so that ALL thais will know who they are?

to fight an evil, you must first know who you are fighting. right?

name the hedge funds.

being a small speck, I certainly cannot do much. but I am sure there are others with more "influence" who can.

expose the hedge funds.

Nick, You just don't get it do you? The United States Congress is so impetent and scared that they cannot pass legislation to regulate or at the very least lend some transparency to the hedge fund industry. In Eurpoe it is the same way, but at least the discussion seems to be "on the table" over there. These funds act with impunity and have absolutly no transparency so what do you think that you could possibly do? I tell you what if you check out the phone books for Darien conneticut, Boca Raton FL., northern N.J., Toronto Canada, Bermuda, the Bahanas, the cayman islands and Berlin you might have a good start as most of the power players in the hedge fund industry operate from these locals. Good luck my friend, perhaps you have the power to do what the U.S. congress obviously doesn't have the balls to attempt!

we only have your accusations. no proof. if you know personally ANY hedge funds who are causing these conspiracies as you claim they are doing, bring it out so that people can confront them.

as for the "other guy" who asked me how I "know" that there is a lot of anti-american sentiment here in thailand. you only have to read the newspapers here to get the general idea of what is going on. gee, you really don't need to go that far either. why, just read the replies from thais on thaivisa.

we are starting to get off-topic here. so, I will stop.

I agree with the above replies you got. and apart from you it seems that other members "dont get it"

Forex is the largest market in the world with a daily turn over of Trillions of dollars. not billions but trillions.

the largest players on this court are usualy central banks and heavy players in forex.

by the way the largest player by far is the US Federal Reserve. some would even go as far as saying that it is the Americans who by sheer ratio are actually controlling this market and do so to promote american interests.

The Hedge Funds and the private equiry funds have become in the last Few years very big players.

some of those funds are called by economists "dumb money" as the investors in those funds dont realy understand what it is the fund is investing in or where the mony is invested they just want to see profis at the end of the year.

Those large funds are making huge amounts of money. and it was published last week about the salaries that some of those hedge funds manages get they were in billions.

Edward S. Lampert made $1.02 billion, while his firm, ESL Investments, raked in a 69 percent return on investment.

Besides Lampert, others in the top 10 of hedge fund managers included James Simons of Renaissance Technologies, $670 million; Bruce Kovner of Caxton Associates, $550 million; Steven Cohen of SAC Capital Advisors, $450 million; David Tepper of Appaloosa Management, $420 million; George Soros of Soros Fund Management, $305 million (Soros was number one in 2003, with $750 million); Paul Tudor Jones II of Tudor Investment Corp., $300 million; Kenneth Griffin of Citadel Investment Group, $240 million; Raymond Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, $225 million; and Israel Englander of Millennium Partners, $205 million.

and that just the americans.

do you undesratand that those guys with those salaries are controlling billions dollar funds and the only objective they have is to make more money and have a bigger return.

Hedge-fund assets globally broke through the $1 trillion mark in July, 2004, with funds invested in Asia approaching 6% of that total.

Dozens of these funds have set up shop in Asia in the past 24 months, hoping to find lucrative opportunities outside the crowded capital markets in Europe and the United States. So why are they investing in Asia and in Thailand??? because the growth rate is better and the lack of monitary controls enable them to do ehat they want.

Aggressive hedge fund managers normally take positions designed to profit from a market decline if one is expected, and perhaps no market "correction" has been as widely anticipated as the latest one in March. Fund managers in Asia were warning of an imminent slide in markets as far back as December. What is surprising about the latest expected drop was how few hedge fund managers appeared to have taken such positions.

Instead, they were trying to take advantage of the bull market for Asian stocks and bonds.

Short-selling, or betting that stocks will fall, is not allowed in some Asian equity markets, but determined short-sellers can use financial derivatives and options to achieve the same effect. When stocks started to move down, though, investors will jumped out en masse, making drops even steeper.

do you understand they are actually going to win a lot of money by crashing the stocks?? do you understand that they are world wide players that can afford to loose in one game if they win more on another? do you understand that The Thai economy is nothing for them and with a single decision they can destroy the country and create another crisis and that at the end of the day they make more moeny from doing it??

But today it is not just the hedge funds that act like hedge funds It is also the proprietary desks of banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

Because the banks' traders and hedge fund managers are compensated on the short-term trading profits they make they are not interested any more in Long term investments . they are playing god to other countris so the bonus at the ned of the year will be bigger.

the crisis is coming soon unless the thai govermant and infact every other asian country will take steps to controll forign investement and capital controll. Meanwhile, a 167 percent increase in Vietnam's benchmark stock market index has sparked fears that Hanoi will impose capital controls to keep foreign speculative investments out. Thailand put controls on incoming portfolio capital in December, although it has been relaxing them steadily since then due to international pressure by.... yes you are right those with the big salaries above.

Highdiver, It seems that you can try and explain the situation at hand until you are blue in the face and it really does not matter because some people just don't want to face reality. You are right on about Goldman and Morgan Stanley as well as other large investment banks on wall street and in Europe. I have a friend (who seems to have lost his moral copass years ago) who worked for an arbitrage firm for many years and is now a Sr. VP with Goldman in Manhattan and his clients are virtually all hegde funds, among them some of the Conneticut scumbags that you mentioned. Its funny how quickly the Thai government eased up on the capital controls that they instituted in December 06. I have no doubt that is why the finance minister eventually quit, he obviously could see clearly what was going on and what the fallout would be when the bottom falls out. Thailand really needs to get a newly elected government and constitution ASAP, and they need to institute some well thought out capital controls that will be in the interest of Thailands economy for the long run. In the mean time I fear that when the slide does begin it will be steep and compounded by the hedge funds piling on the short side. I find it kind of funny (sad actually) that so many posters here equate a strong currency with a strong economy, on one of the forums here posters are actually predicting the euro and pound to be 160+ and 240+ respectivley vs. the U.S. dollar by years end, they just don't understand how crippling that would be for the Brittish and European economies. As you well know the US government is loving the weak dollar because it is lowering their trade defecit daily and at the same time keeping uemployment at historic lows and increasing U.S. corporate profits and thus tax revenues, and of course because of that the U.S. stock market has been on a tear recently setting all time highs in virtually every average. Finally in answer to Nicks question, yes there is evil in the world and it is personified by these amoral hedge fund billionaires in Conneticut and elseware who don't care how many peoples lives they destroy as long as they increase their net worth by another 500 million dollars by years end.

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

Highdiver, You hit the nail on the head! I have posted multiple times on this subject but most people here just don't get it. When the hedge funds decide to get out of their investments and change their baht back in to euros and U.S. dollars then the Thai baht will do an absolute backflip. People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. A good example was the democratic debate in south carolina yesterday, the moderator asked john edwards and hillary clinton the same question about what they would do to institute some oversight on the hedge fund industry if elected and both candidates completely dodged the question and talked about something else. The next question in the debate was directed toward chris dodd (a senator from conneticut that the hegde fund industry has in its back pocket) and you could see senator dodd sweating bullets thinking that he might be getting the same question on the hegde fund industry, but sadly the moderator seeing that he was not going to get a straight answer about hedge funds from these candidiates, changed the line of questioning and you could see the immediate relief on chris dodds face. Just as Jesus overturned the carts of the moneychangers in the temple, we need someone in power with a strong loyal following to turn over the carts of the hedge funds and watch as the cockroaches scrurry, if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

if you have proof that this is actually happening, then, let us all see it. otherwise, all this conspiracy stuff is old stuff, and the only thing it does is make foreigners more anti-american.

on the other hand, since you seem to think this is true, perhaps you can tell us all what thailand can do to stop this so-called conspiracy being implemented by evil rich americans?

your conspiracy theories are making it so that win or lose, america will look like the one to blame.

jesus, can't someone in this world take the blame for something THEY did for once?

yeah. maybe I am naive about all the evil in this world. so, please enlighten me. but some more constructive thought would help instead of just all the accusations. thank you.

Nick, First of all there is no conspiracy theory going on here, hegde funds and arbitragers have been with us for a while now and their size, strength, and political clout has grown into something that would make the tabacco industry evious. Secondly, this is not a uniquely american phenomonon there are many european hedge funds manipulating the thai market as well as many other markets in asia and elseware. Last week on 60 minutes (or maybe it was 20-20) there was a segment on just this, and senator grassley who had the guts to put forward some rather tame hegde fund legislation on the senate floor was interviewed and said that within 10 minutes of introducing his bill on the senate floor he was contacted by multiple parties(both other senators and lobbyists) to kill the bill. In this same segment it was made clear that on multiple occasions senator dodd has killed similiar bills and then 60 minutes went on to say that dodd recieved over 5 million dollars from the hedge fund industry in his last campaign. These are the hard cold facts my friend, I only wish it was just a bad dream or some bogus conspiracy theory. By the way americans are not to blame but instead are victims of these hedge funds as well. Perhaps when the valuation on the baht does reverse dramatically and some journalist can lay out just how all this occured, then perhaps you will not be so naive the next time around.

ok. I am not disbelieving you. especially if 60 minutes brought the subject up.

...if some senators and some lobby groups tried to stop this hegde fund legislation, then, these people need to be identified before anybody can do anything. so, the big question is - can you identify who these senators and lobbyist are?

on the same token, since you say that there are american and european hedge funds who are causing all these evil deeds here in thailand, can you identify them so that ALL thais will know who they are?

to fight an evil, you must first know who you are fighting. right?

name the hedge funds.

being a small speck, I certainly cannot do much. but I am sure there are others with more "influence" who can.

expose the hedge funds.

Nick, You just don't get it do you? The United States Congress is so impetent and scared that they cannot pass legislation to regulate or at the very least lend some transparency to the hedge fund industry. In Eurpoe it is the same way, but at least the discussion seems to be "on the table" over there. These funds act with impunity and have absolutly no transparency so what do you think that you could possibly do? I tell you what if you check out the phone books for Darien conneticut, Boca Raton FL., northern N.J., Toronto Canada, Bermuda, the Bahanas, the cayman islands and Berlin you might have a good start as most of the power players in the hedge fund industry operate from these locals. Good luck my friend, perhaps you have the power to do what the U.S. congress obviously doesn't have the balls to attempt!

I think a lot of people here are underestimating how hard it is to manipulate currency markets.

In terms of some sort of economic crisis, even this lower GDP number is 3 times the GDP growth that the USA is currently experiencing.

With a Coup, The Tsunami, FBA, 30% Currency regulation etc... I'd say its doing pretty ###### fine actually. Some people are just naturally a little negative and look for things to fail, so they can say "I told you so".

I could start a thread with the title "THAILAND GROWS 3 TIMES AS QUICKLY AS THE USA" but it really doesn't mean anything even though it would be a true statement.

"I think a lot of people here are underestimating how hard it is to manipulate currency markets" A very interesting lead off sentence Ben, however you might want to do a little historical reasearch before you post something like that next time, if you do you will find out that only a few years ago the pound sterling was under attack from George Soros and Mr. Soros on his own brought the chancelor of the exchecker to his knees! Now if one man has the ability to manipulate one of the strongest currencies on the planet then just imagine what a group of multi billion dollar hedge fund managers can do to a small country like Thailand. Please go ahead and start that thread comparing GDP growth in the U.S. vs. Thailand, who knows you might even learn something or at least you might be forced to take off those rose colored glasses.

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

Highdiver, You hit the nail on the head! I have posted multiple times on this subject but most people here just don't get it. When the hedge funds decide to get out of their investments and change their baht back in to euros and U.S. dollars then the Thai baht will do an absolute backflip. People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. A good example was the democratic debate in south carolina yesterday, the moderator asked john edwards and hillary clinton the same question about what they would do to institute some oversight on the hedge fund industry if elected and both candidates completely dodged the question and talked about something else. The next question in the debate was directed toward chris dodd (a senator from conneticut that the hegde fund industry has in its back pocket) and you could see senator dodd sweating bullets thinking that he might be getting the same question on the hegde fund industry, but sadly the moderator seeing that he was not going to get a straight answer about hedge funds from these candidiates, changed the line of questioning and you could see the immediate relief on chris dodds face. Just as Jesus overturned the carts of the moneychangers in the temple, we need someone in power with a strong loyal following to turn over the carts of the hedge funds and watch as the cockroaches scrurry, if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

if you have proof that this is actually happening, then, let us all see it. otherwise, all this conspiracy stuff is old stuff, and the only thing it does is make foreigners more anti-american.

on the other hand, since you seem to think this is true, perhaps you can tell us all what thailand can do to stop this so-called conspiracy being implemented by evil rich americans?

your conspiracy theories are making it so that win or lose, america will look like the one to blame.

jesus, can't someone in this world take the blame for something THEY did for once?

yeah. maybe I am naive about all the evil in this world. so, please enlighten me. but some more constructive thought would help instead of just all the accusations. thank you.

Nick, First of all there is no conspiracy theory going on here, hegde funds and arbitragers have been with us for a while now and their size, strength, and political clout has grown into something that would make the tabacco industry evious. Secondly, this is not a uniquely american phenomonon there are many european hedge funds manipulating the thai market as well as many other markets in asia and elseware. Last week on 60 minutes (or maybe it was 20-20) there was a segment on just this, and senator grassley who had the guts to put forward some rather tame hegde fund legislation on the senate floor was interviewed and said that within 10 minutes of introducing his bill on the senate floor he was contacted by multiple parties(both other senators and lobbyists) to kill the bill. In this same segment it was made clear that on multiple occasions senator dodd has killed similiar bills and then 60 minutes went on to say that dodd recieved over 5 million dollars from the hedge fund industry in his last campaign. These are the hard cold facts my friend, I only wish it was just a bad dream or some bogus conspiracy theory. By the way americans are not to blame but instead are victims of these hedge funds as well. Perhaps when the valuation on the baht does reverse dramatically and some journalist can lay out just how all this occured, then perhaps you will not be so naive the next time around.

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

Highdiver, You hit the nail on the head! I have posted multiple times on this subject but most people here just don't get it. When the hedge funds decide to get out of their investments and change their baht back in to euros and U.S. dollars then the Thai baht will do an absolute backflip. People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. A good example was the democratic debate in south carolina yesterday, the moderator asked john edwards and hillary clinton the same question about what they would do to institute some oversight on the hedge fund industry if elected and both candidates completely dodged the question and talked about something else. The next question in the debate was directed toward chris dodd (a senator from conneticut that the hegde fund industry has in its back pocket) and you could see senator dodd sweating bullets thinking that he might be getting the same question on the hegde fund industry, but sadly the moderator seeing that he was not going to get a straight answer about hedge funds from these candidiates, changed the line of questioning and you could see the immediate relief on chris dodds face. Just as Jesus overturned the carts of the moneychangers in the temple, we need someone in power with a strong loyal following to turn over the carts of the hedge funds and watch as the cockroaches scrurry, if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

Stop moaning - it was only 25 when I came to this country. Ungrateful b@stds.

Of course back then you could buy a 3 bedroom bungalow or a oceanside condo in pattaya for about 400,000 baht!

Everyone's an expert. I about fell out of my chair at the "Stay out of US stock market and real estate." Right.

Yea, that post by thaistick is pretty funny in hindsight, given the fact that all the major U.S. market averages (except the NASDAQ) are setting new records almost daily now, of course the main reason that U.S. corporate profits have been climbing so dramatically(and thus the market) is the weak dollar. I have a feeling that that the time for this "joy ride" weak dollar cycle will sadly have to end in the not too distant future as some of the larger European economies are starting to feel the effects of the strong Euro and it is only a matter of time before the EU central banks begin to intervene to weaken the Euro. If the Euro was allowed to contiue to strengthen then there would be the real possibility of a serious recession in many European countries. In defense of thaistick I have to say that looking at a post from two years ago there are many of us that could be made to look rather foolish.

some excerpts that stood out for me were..............

RISKY BUSINESS

Clouds on Thailand's horizon

March 27

"The Bank of Thailand has in recent months spent more than a trillion baht to keep the currency weak. "

"Thailand's instability-driven collapse of domestic demand is also plainly discernible in sliding real investment growth. "

"Moreover, further devaluation of the US dollar could lead to the depreciation rather than appreciation of the Thai baht, as investors are forced to unwind their yen carry trades. That means that in the months ahead both Thai asset prices and the military-led government could tumble in unison. "

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/IC27Ae02.html

Bingo, I am glad that I had some time on my hands tonight to look back at some of the TV posts of the last month or so, because it is the first time that I have come across this article, thanks! This is a very insightful and astute piece of business journalisim about the current situation in Thailand. I think the telling figures will be the numbers from the 2nd and 3rd quarters of CY 2007. Government numbers of the macro economy often are lagging indicators of how the economy was doing 6 months prior, the reality of what has been going on in the Thai economy over the last 6 months will likely not show up in the figures until October when Q3 CY07 numbers are made public. On the micro economy front, the farmers, construction workers, taxi drivers, business owners, tour operators and realtors can tell you right now what is happening to the Thai economy and it isn't very pretty. The weakening U.S. dollar is the fuel that feeds the robust U.S. economy and the record levels that most of the major stock exchanges in the U.S. have hit in recent days, and while U.S. treasury officials say in public that they want a strong dollar, the reality is that behind closed doors they are ecstatic about the current dollar valuation especially against the euro and the pound, so I would imagine that unless the european central banks intervine on behalf of their exporters, that the weak dollar will be here for a while. I want to take this opportunity to thank you for taking the time to post this article as well as the many other business articles that you regularly post on this forum. The articles that you post here give the readers a far more accurate picture of what is going on in the Thai economy than the plethera of posts from the rose colored glasses brigade, many of whom actually think that the strong Thai baht is a good thing and an indicator of a strong Thai economy.

A currency which loses 100% of its value is then worthless.....if you take away 100% of anything then there is none left......this rarely happens but does occasionally....rusually when a gov't loses a war and the old currency becomes worthless. And to take this to the absurd level actual paper currency never becomes completly worthless because it always has a recycle value as paper. In high school on a test the teacher asked "Is it possible for currency to literally be not worth the paper it is printed on?". The teacher wanted the answer to be "yes" but I put "no" and was at first counted as wrong but when I explained to the teacher that the paper currency IS the paper it is printed on so the only way it can be worth less is for it to be destroyed physically the teacher agreed that my point was valid and gave me credit for my answer (much to the teacher's credit).ic

Chonwah

Oh, please. It's just a doubling factor when it comes to currency. You can lose 100 percent of a currencies value relative to another currency or 1000 percent relative to another currency. It's simple math, baht goes from 34 to the USD to 340 baht to the USD, the baht has lost 1000 percent relative to USD currency. I'm happy you're teacher thought you were a bright student.

It is not a doubling factor...not for currency or anything else.

When the baht is at 34 to the dollar a baht is worth $0.02941.

When the baht is at 340 to the dollar a baht is worth $0.002941.

The baht lost $.026469 of value relative to the dollar when it went from 34 to 340.

To find the percentage of its value that was lost you take the reduction in value and divide it by the original value and then multiply by 100:

(0.026469/0.0294) x 100 = 90%. The baht lost 90% of its value relative to the dollar.

I suppose you could say that the us dollar APPRECIATED 1000% against the baht and then you would be correct.

Check my calcs since I didn't,

Chownah

Chonwah, I see that you simplified it for steve, yet I have a feeling that logical thought may not be one of his strong suits so I imagine that he will still contend that a currency can indeed lose more than 100% of its value. The hard figures on the thai economy are coming in every day and the situation is not looking very good. I think that before years end steve will come out of his denial phase and realize that outside of some insulated places like Phuket and PiPi, that the Thai real estate market is indeed in dire straights and will continue to be so for some time to come. Steve, since you can't be reasoned with logically I think I will just leave you with your Thai real estate investments to figure it out for yourself, good luck!

Most of my net worth is in commercial real estate in the different areas of the US, mostly partnerships in tall office buildings. I agree with some who are down on Thailand in that I am not pulling vast amounts of my net worth and plugging it into Thai assets at this time. However, the money I have brought over in the last six years and invested in condos, land, aircraft, and stocks has done quite well. Will it continue to do so, who knows? If nothing else these Thai investments have been a wonderful hedge against the crashing dollar. Also, I am generally optimistic on condo investing (not speculating) in Hua Hin and Bangkok, markets where I live. This is based on the feeling I get that Thailand is becoming a more attractive location to live for foreigners and looks like it will continue to progress. This has nothing to do with the daily drama of Thai politics or the housing loan situation in Lampang.

There is just a critical mass of foreigners that has arrived in the last 3 years and the ever increasing numbers make it easier to live here as the comforts of home appear here in Thailand for the masses of Scandis, Brits, and others arriving. That said, the condo market in Bangkok particularly, as well as Hua Hin, will be dominated by other Asians seeking inexpensive second homes close to their native land.

As a real estate agent I am inclined to agree. The Thai property market doesn't follow the Western model. The property owning Thais tend to hunker down and hold onto their assets whenever there is a financial crisis. Now that a large number of foreigners are in the property market this may change, but so far I haven't seen any evidence of it. A few clients have reduced their asking price, but overall prices have flattened out over the last 12 months. I don't see a downward trend. When the market picks up again prices will start rising again.

Once again the doomsayers are predicting a property 'meltdown'. Once again they are wrong. Demand is high, and at the moment there are plenty of condos for sale. But no one is rushing in to grab them while the current political instability persists.

When things do start moving again you can expect plenty of these condos to be in high demand again. In other words, this is a good time to invest if you can wait it out.

As to the rumors that I am selling out: As usual, the rumor mongers have it only partly right.

I have the Holt WorldWide up for sale, which is the umbrella company for my IT and real estate businesses. But I am not selling out because of the property market. In fact, my property business is doing very well thank you. Instead of small home and condo buyers, however, my main clients now are big buyers; hotels, golf courses, large land plots, buildings, etc.

The main reason I am planning to move back to Australia is purely personal. My mother is 83 years old and she wants my kids around during her last years. I will continue to maintain a business here, whether I sell the company or not. I think Thailand has a great future. It has a solid manufacturing and agricultural base. Not even the men in green can destroy that without going all out.

Cooler heads are starting to make their voices heard to the government and I believe once the green morons...sorry, government is voted out of office, it will be business as usual and many of the rules they are bringing in now will be overturned for the stupid ideas that they are.

Don't give up on Thailand folks. But do keep your heads down right now. Wait and see. If you want to keep up with the latest news subscribe to my newsletter. You will get an honest and realistic assessment of the property market each month. Opt in at holt-realty.com. Hope you join!

Most intelligent post I've read in several months. If people expect a real estate price melt-down in Thailand, forget it, it won't happen. Thai's will sit on it forever and will never reduce prices.

If anything Thai's will increase their prices in the event of a slow market. It's happening now in other sectors. Poor sales in other parts of the world means sales and price reductions, but here it's an excuse to raise prices to cope with the loss of income. That's what makes Thailand unqiue.

Exactly. People can wait for a price melt-down, show all the economic data they want to inferring a melt-down and yet it will not happen in Thailand.

Stevie, Right on man a melt down can never happen in Thailand, right? People like you were saying the same thing back in 1997 and look what happened. You are obviously in denial about what is currently going on in the Thai economy, you might want to check out a very insightful associated press article in the business section of todays International Herald Tribune. The first sentence in the article is "Four asain nations hit hard by the 1997-98 financial crisis face renewed vulnerability to sudden capital outflows that could cause a currency crisis". I will let you take a wild guess as to which asian nation was first on that list. The Thai finance minister who recently resigned was very well aware of the situation, but apparently his arguments fell on deaf (or perhaps corrupt) ears in the current administration. You don't have to be able to read tea leaves, the signs are all there for anybody to see, just open up your eyes and do a little research as to what occured back in 1997 and then look at the current situation in Thailand.

Thank you for your long and rambling economic dissertation. Did anything you said effect the price of real property, land, etc., then? Real estate prices (in baht terms) didn't drop then, it only became more reasonable for foreigners to buy it because of currency de-valuation. To replicate the 1997 scenario, in 1997 real estate prices, the baht would have lose over 100 percent of it's current position. Do you really think that's likely? I mean, that is what you're suggesting.

Calm down there stevo! First of all it is impossible for the baht or any investment to lose over 100%, you can lose up to 100% but not more than that. When you wake up and smell the coffee you will realize that property prices at the time of the 97 crash were in many cases 20-25% of what they are today and then of course there was the great 2 for 1 sale after the devaluation of the baht. Back in 97-98 conditions were near perfect for the foreign investor and expat, there was lax visa enforcemnet and it was very easy to set up a thai corporation to puchase all those condos, homes and businesses at fire sale prices and the expats were pouring into the country because of the great exchange rate and low cost of real estate. Now we move to 2007 and Thailand faces yet another monetary crisis in which the baht will soon be facing a devaluation once again, however the scenario for expats and foreign investors has changed drmatically. Expats are facing a slew of tougher visa regs and the investor visa among others has gone by the wayside, along with these tougher new regs is a country run by a military hunta and ethnic instability along with random bombings. In a nutshell steve, the expats are not beating a path to Thailand anymore (in fact many are leaving and trying desperatly to sell their property) and at the same time foreign investors are finding it harder to form a thai corporation and harder to find real real estate bargains and they have many other options like cambodia , vietnam and maylaysia to chanel there investments to. The Thai economy is heading downwards and a credit crunch is imminent so the Thai people are not and will not be buying much real estate either. When you add it all up there are more and more properties coming on the market each and every day and there just aren't many buyers out there. If you are currently heavily invested in real estate in Thailand I would think you might want to rethink your portfolio, or be perpared to hold on to those properties for a very long time to come. By the way you are quite welcome for my last rambling economic dissertation as well as this one.

Most of my net worth is in commercial real estate in the different areas of the US, mostly partnerships in tall office buildings. I agree with some who are down on Thailand in that I am not pulling vast amounts of my net worth and plugging it into Thai assets at this time. However, the money I have brought over in the last six years and invested in condos, land, aircraft, and stocks has done quite well. Will it continue to do so, who knows? If nothing else these Thai investments have been a wonderful hedge against the crashing dollar. Also, I am generally optimistic on condo investing (not speculating) in Hua Hin and Bangkok, markets where I live. This is based on the feeling I get that Thailand is becoming a more attractive location to live for foreigners and looks like it will continue to progress. This has nothing to do with the daily drama of Thai politics or the housing loan situation in Lampang.

There is just a critical mass of foreigners that has arrived in the last 3 years and the ever increasing numbers make it easier to live here as the comforts of home appear here in Thailand for the masses of Scandis, Brits, and others arriving. That said, the condo market in Bangkok particularly, as well as Hua Hin, will be dominated by other Asians seeking inexpensive second homes close to their native land.

As a real estate agent I am inclined to agree. The Thai property market doesn't follow the Western model. The property owning Thais tend to hunker down and hold onto their assets whenever there is a financial crisis. Now that a large number of foreigners are in the property market this may change, but so far I haven't seen any evidence of it. A few clients have reduced their asking price, but overall prices have flattened out over the last 12 months. I don't see a downward trend. When the market picks up again prices will start rising again.

Once again the doomsayers are predicting a property 'meltdown'. Once again they are wrong. Demand is high, and at the moment there are plenty of condos for sale. But no one is rushing in to grab them while the current political instability persists.

When things do start moving again you can expect plenty of these condos to be in high demand again. In other words, this is a good time to invest if you can wait it out.

As to the rumors that I am selling out: As usual, the rumor mongers have it only partly right.

I have the Holt WorldWide up for sale, which is the umbrella company for my IT and real estate businesses. But I am not selling out because of the property market. In fact, my property business is doing very well thank you. Instead of small home and condo buyers, however, my main clients now are big buyers; hotels, golf courses, large land plots, buildings, etc.

The main reason I am planning to move back to Australia is purely personal. My mother is 83 years old and she wants my kids around during her last years. I will continue to maintain a business here, whether I sell the company or not. I think Thailand has a great future. It has a solid manufacturing and agricultural base. Not even the men in green can destroy that without going all out.

Cooler heads are starting to make their voices heard to the government and I believe once the green morons...sorry, government is voted out of office, it will be business as usual and many of the rules they are bringing in now will be overturned for the stupid ideas that they are.

Don't give up on Thailand folks. But do keep your heads down right now. Wait and see. If you want to keep up with the latest news subscribe to my newsletter. You will get an honest and realistic assessment of the property market each month. Opt in at holt-realty.com. Hope you join!

Most intelligent post I've read in several months. If people expect a real estate price melt-down in Thailand, forget it, it won't happen. Thai's will sit on it forever and will never reduce prices.

If anything Thai's will increase their prices in the event of a slow market. It's happening now in other sectors. Poor sales in other parts of the world means sales and price reductions, but here it's an excuse to raise prices to cope with the loss of income. That's what makes Thailand unqiue.

Exactly. People can wait for a price melt-down, show all the economic data they want to inferring a melt-down and yet it will not happen in Thailand.

Stevie, Right on man a melt down can never happen in Thailand, right? People like you were saying the same thing back in 1997 and look what happened. You are obviously in denial about what is currently going on in the Thai economy, you might want to check out a very insightful associated press article in the business section of todays International Herald Tribune. The first sentence in the article is "Four asain nations hit hard by the 1997-98 financial crisis face renewed vulnerability to sudden capital outflows that could cause a currency crisis". I will let you take a wild guess as to which asian nation was first on that list. The Thai finance minister who recently resigned was very well aware of the situation, but apparently his arguments fell on deaf (or perhaps corrupt) ears in the current administration. You don't have to be able to read tea leaves, the signs are all there for anybody to see, just open up your eyes and do a little research as to what occured back in 1997 and then look at the current situation in Thailand.

Get ready for the BIG SALE in a few years when Thai people can't pay off their creditcards, home and carloans anymore.....this people are living above their standards. Do some people here know how bad it really is with credit card debt in Thailand ??? I wonder....

Do farangs know how easy it is to get a loan for thai people or a car loan with a salary of 10,000 baht/month, you should try in the states or Europe........what a difference.........this can't keep on going like this anymore for long...........it's about too burst soon.

Get ready ?

Scottbiker

Scott, That is exactly what I meant when I said in my previous post that the Thai real estate market is heading for a meltdown. Apparently there are many folks out there that do not realize the full scope of the upcoming credit crisis in Thailand. I talked at length with 3 bankers and about 7 or 8 real estate agents this winter while I was over there and they basically all agreed about the situation at hand and are not very optimistic that a new government can get on board soon enough to tackle this problem and try to lessen the blow to the Thai economy. Good luck!

The baht has been strengthening due to the foreign funds, much in dollars, flooding into the country. Overlooked, is the amount of people with money, big money, relocating into the country. Property now is phenomenally cheap right now in Thailand relative to other places like Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, etc. As soon as the market prices dropped 5% - 10%, which is highly unlikely, these tens of thousands of people with money would jump in to buy it. There money has to go somewhere. Why not here? That's why few bargains are to be found. The landscape has changed massively during the Thaksin administration's years in office.

Hmmm on the coolaid again???

Sorry that was intended as a reply to BingoBongo....

People may or may not continue to invest in Thailand - the next six months is critical for the current administration to 'get it right'.

Coolaid? I think that is putting it lightly! If this poster really believes any of this nonsense then he or she is obviously needs to put down the opium pipe because the delusions are quite severe. The Thai realestate market is in crisis currently and heading for a meltdown, you have to be blind to not be able to see it. I have been told that even Marc Holt is closing his real estate business and leaving the country.

I am glad to say that in yesterday's interview to CNBC ASIA Malaysian prime minister Badawi expressed views identical to mine regarding the appreciation of Malaysian ringit. To the journalist question whether he is concerned about ringit appreciation, the answer was no. He said that he would like to see further appreciation of ringit which reflects the progress of Malaysian economy. When (somewhat astounded) journalist asked to what level ringit should appreciate, Badawi responded that it should be decided by markets. He added that after decoupling ringit and US dollar, ringit steadily appreciated without signs of volatility. This indicates that SPECULATORS PLAY NO ROLE IN RINGITS APPRECIATION

(compare with what I said in this thread about the baht). I wish Thailand had currently leaders as smart as Badawi.

Ringit was linked to US dollar since 1997 crisis (and was, in fact, not convertible). It was decoupled from US dollar and allowed to free float immediately after China ceased its own coupling of rembini with US dollar. Since then ringit appreciated approximately 6.5 percent versus US dollar. Of course, baht appreciated much more. Another difference is that ringit is not allowed to be traded on offshore markets.

What Badawi understans (and what Tarisa and vast majority of posters on this message board do not) is that HE CAN DO NOTHING TO STOP RINGIT APPRECIATION WITHOUT HURTING HIS OWN COUNTRY AND HIS OWN PEOPLE.

How could they be identical to yours when we have been discussing the Thai Baht here and not the ringit? Perhaps you need to go to Maylasia VISA.com and express your views. The Thai baht has increased in value by a factor of three compared to the ringit, and the ringits increase is indeed due to the decoupling with the US dollar. The Mayalsian economy is growing and the Thai economy is in a state of decline, therefore any comparison between the two is rather a moot point. The fact is if the TB were to continue to increase in value vs. other currencies as you seem to wish, it would have absolutly devestating effects on the Thai economy. As has been stated in previous posts, agriculture , tourisim and exports are the biggest chunk of thai GDP and if the TB continues to strenghten as you think then those segments of the Thai economy (which are already hurting) would be devestated, that is why the BOT put in the capital controls in the first place and why they are trying to hold the baht above the mid 30's until the speculation in the Thai makets winds down. It is truely sad that you have such a death wish for the Thai economy, but then again as I stated before you more than likely have a vested interest in the TB increasing in value so that you can line your own pockets. When the TB does correct this summer or later this year, one can only hope that you are in a very concentrated baht position at the time of the reversal.