VegasVic

There's one easy way to stop the trend: devalue the currency.

OK, what am I missing?

A devaluation of the Thai Baht is certainly a possibility, however I would imagine that before drastic action needs to be taken by the government, the entities (stock market speculators, real estate speculators and currency traders) that caused the rapid rise in the currency will also lead to its rapid downfall sometime later this year. Anyone who has traveled throughout the kingdom in the last 6 months can tell you that the Thai economy is not in a boom, but rather in a decline and the rise in the Thai baht has been an artificial one that is controlled by overseas investments. The money has been pouring into Thai investment vehicles and not into building more factories and creating more jobs for the Thai people. The inflow of outside curency that has to be converted into thai baht has caused the imbalance and thus the rise in the baht. The loss of jobs in the Thai export sector will likely continue as the US and to a lesser degree the European economies continue to slow. At some point the demand for the TB will lessen and then the speculators will take this as their sign to make a hasty exit. If that exit is an orderly (not very likely) one then the TB will float back to a more liveable valuation for the Thai government some where in the 39-42 range(vs. the US dollar) , more than likely the outflow will not be orderly and the TB will have a mini colapse(45+) as the hedge funds and the big currency traders get out and the others who followed thinking that this was a long term trend are left holding the bag. Markets move in cycles and this one is about topped out, for those on this board who think that the TB is here to stay at these levels then obviously you must have a vested interest either in real estate or equities in the Thai market(in some of the posts this is very transparent). For the sake of the Thai people I hope this ridiculous speculation in their currency ends sooner rather than later and this coupled with a newly elected government later this year can lead the way to some real economic prosperity and job growth in Thailand.

I am a Forex trader , and i used to live in thailand for 10 years , i left last year .

Let me tell you one thing about the thai baht from my experience , it has nothing to do with fundemantal or technical issues , it is mainly speculation trading . there is nothing fundemantal to support the baht so be warry for a sudden drop like the thai stock market did .

It is good to see someone who knows what is really happening here. The situation with the TB is simply an imbalance of TB vs. other currencies(mostly US dollars) that are being converted to TB in order to speculate in the Thai stock market. This imbalance will be rectified at some point this year when the speculative fever in the Thai market ends and the hedge funds begin to sell out of the Thai markets and redeem TB back to their own currency. When this happens there will be a whipsaw effect and the TB is likely to see the mid 40's vs. the US dollar for a while until it eventually settles in the 40-42 range where it seems to have been for the last few years. I have traveled thouout Thailand for the last 3 months and I know for certain that the rise in the TB is not due to booming economy. From the taxi drivers to the merchants to anyone who is trying to sell a house or land in thailand it is quite apparent that tourists are not spending the dollars they use to spend and the real estate sector is hurting in most of the country(except for the bubble in Phuket and Pattaya which seems to be uneffected as of yet) and the export sector is getting killed. The US dollar is a completely different issue, the US government has encoureged a weak dollar the last couple of years in order to help the US trade imbalance and this will continue until the US economy slows down and the consumers stop the buying spree. When this slowdown in the US economy happens there will no longer be a need for the government to encourage a weak dollar because trade imbalnces will improve as the consumers in the US slow ther purchases of foriegn goods. These are all very basic cycles that have happened time and again, the only difference this time is the scope of the swings due to the heavy involvement of the growing hedge fund sector and their speulative impact on markets. As far as Thailand goes I just hope that they get decent constitution and and a democratically elected government before year end so that the long term economic growth of the country can be adressed and some sort of confidence in the government can be reestablished. In regards to the Phuket and Pattaya bubble, just remember nothing goes up in a straight line forever, it seems the greater fool theory is in full effect in those two areas and I just hope that no Thai Visa members get caught without a seat when the music ends!

Probably more a case of trying to soften the baht a bit. It must be killing exports being this high.

The strong Baht is indeed hurting the expot sector, just this morning on Bloomberg financial news there was a headline about the weakening Thai economy due to a slowdown in exports. The problem can't be fixed by a 25 basis point drop in the rates however. The Baht will not float back down to real valuation until the foriegn hedge funds that are invested in the thai stock market decide to sell off and convert their baht investments back to US dollars, Euros, Pounds and Aussie dollars. The precipitous runup in the TB has severly hurt Thai expoters, and with a slowdown in the US, Japanese and European economies predicted for this year the pain for those Thai companies will only continue to increse until the TB can come back down to a more normal valuation vs. those currencies.

"If you have already bought your ticket, the seven hundred baht will have been added. If not, you pay 700 Baht departure tax. Used to be 500 Bhat."

I'd be interested to hear if it is true that the tax is now included in the ticket price. When I flew back to the UK last month I had to pay cash, as always. It was still 500 then but I had heard the fee was going up to 700 baht.

Thanks for all the input. I will check with the airlines to see if it included in our tickets, if not then I will be prepared to pay the 700bt. at the gate.

Does anyone have knowledge of a fee that is charged at the airport upon leaving thailand that must be paid in baht notes. I was going to cash in all my notes before leaving next week, but I remembered this topic coming up on thaivisa at sometime in the past and was wondering if this fee is still being charged? Thanks for any input regarding this matter.

The fee that you mentioned would be the airport departure tax of bht 500 per passenger. As of Feb. 01, 2007, the tax is included in your air tickets. So if you book and had paid your fare prior to that date, then you may have to pay that at the airport. You can actually note the difference in total paid, airfare cost add so and so, and so and so. Simpler, call the airline and enquire whether the departure tax is included in the airfare, so that you would feel at ease.

...and it's 700 baht now

Thanks for everyones input! It sounds like my wife and I should have 800-900bt/ea on us as we leave.

Does anyone have knowledge of a fee that is charged at the airport upon leaving thailand that must be paid in baht notes. I was going to cash in all my notes before leaving next week, but I remembered this topic coming up on thaivisa at sometime in the past and was wondering if this fee is still being charged? Thanks for any input regarding this matter.

I remember reading in one of the forums on thaivisa that when you leave Thailand you need to have either 50 or 100 baht note at the airport for some kind of exit surcharge. Does anyone have knoweledge of this and what is the ammount if there is such a exit charge. Thanks in advance for any replies!

Unfortunately, Thaksin had a mandate and a unique opportunity to change Thailand for the better, and he blew it all through his own ego; greed; and despotic personality. He became a tyrant from too much power.

The "holy trinity of military, royalty, and beaurocracy" will take Thailand back to the dark ages. They are dinosaurs resurrected from the tar pits they blundered into, when they should have become extinct.

I come from a backround in midwestern U.S. politics and I can tell you firsthand how power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutly. I personally do not know how corrupt Taksin Shinawatra was, but I do know what the sentiment regarding Mr. Shinawatra in the Thai countryside is. I have been traveling in Thailand since early December, spending time in areas like Ubon, Korat, Rayong-Klaeng, Sattahip, and now in Chaingmai, not just in the urban areas but in the rural districts as well and I have never seen more unanimity in sentiment on a political front in my life. The popular support for Taksin is overwhelming. If a fair election were held today it is inconceiveable that Taksin would not win in a landslide. I have no dog in this fight, I decided to enter this post because I was shocked to find this out myself. I came here not so much as a tourist but as an investor and the input I have gotten from various real estate agents, tuk-tuk drivers, songthaew drivers, taxi drivers and merchants is be very careful investing in Thailand at this time. They all know first hand that their business is not good this year and rightly or wrongly they blame it on the military hunta. To her credit the finance minister did try to institute capital controls, but apparently either the military or the Thai elite shut her down because they were quickly removed. She saw the large inflow of hedge fund money into the Thai stock market and the real estate largley being bought up by speculators and not homeowners and her instinct to institute capital controls will turn out to be prophetic. If left completely alone the Thai baht would continue to strenghten for a while longer, and then as the hedge funds take their profits (and convert baht back to dollars and euros) and shrewd real estate speculators flip their properties the Thai baht will come crashing down and the real estate market bubble will begin to dellate in most of the country(Phuket seems to be immune at present but time will tell). I don't know if Taksin even wants to reenter politics in Thailand, but weather he does or not the pendulum has already swung too far and as Mr. Newton clearly noted every action has an equal and opposite reaction and so the effect on the Thai economy is inevitable. So much for my Saturday morning ramblings, just a word of caution to small investors overseas thinking that they will catch the wave of investment in Thailand, "caveat emptor". I have enjoyed my travels in Thailand immensely and I love the people and the country and I hope whatever does transpire politically and economically later this year is in the best longterm interest for them.

I ma not living in Chiang Mai but played Royal Lanna, Chiang Mai Lamphun and Highlands.

All three have very good layouts and I my opinion, 11 hcp, I rate them Highlands, Royal Lanna, CM Lamphun.

I know there are at least 5 more very good golfcourses in CM.

Good Luck!

:D

Thanks Sven, I appreciate the input and will check out all three courses.

Greetings to all on the Chiangmai forum. I thoroughly enjoy reading all the input on resturuants and sightseeing in the area that so many of you have thoughtfully volunteered. My wife and I are heading up to CM from the gulf area on a tour group and we are seriously thinking of just staying in CM for a couple of weeks or so and I was wondering if anyone out there had knoweledge of a decent longstay hotel in CM. Hot water and sat TV would be nice and as cool as the evenings are this time of year in CM I guess that A/C is really not needed. Thanks in advance for any advice given. Also is there any particular hangout for english speaking expats in CM?

I think it would help if you said what sort of budget you had in mind as there is no shortage of good accomadation which can work for most peoples budgets

Remo, sorry for not giving a price range. We were hoping to find something around 2000 baht per week. I did find a hostel on the internet after I posted yesterday that has private rooms for around 300bt/night, it is apparently across the street from Mikes hambuger shop(wherever that might be?). Once again thanks in advance for anyones help in this matter!

I'd reccomend using this site to get a full list of places, its not an online booking service but a review of guesthouses and hotels in SE Asia.

In the last two months, through this site we found all our accomadation for a 3 week trip in Cambodia/Vietnam and all 7 places were great.

Have also used this site to find reccomendations for places in southern thailand

As the guesthouses arent paying to be in this, so the reviews by the people operating the site are honest and were pretty much exactly how they describe each place

Lots of places anywhere from 140 - 400 a night depending on type of room. which can all be found when you click here

Remo, Sorry it took so long to get back to you, but many thanks for the guesthouse website. While we didn't wind up in any of the guesthouses in the website your posting got us thinking in that direction and we found a great little guest house with a powerful fan, sat. TV, good hot water shower for 320 bt./night. Thanks again.

Since you seem to like the place so much can you share with us the place name and address, so others can benefit!

Certainly can scottie! I was in a bit of a rush earlier today and thought I had mentioned the name in my post. It is the Rattana(I think that is the correct spelling) guest house and it is about a full city block north of the diamond riverside hotel, down the same soi as the galare guest house and the riverside lodge. They didn't have weekly rates but at 320baht/night it was fairly reasonable.

Are there any liknsmen out there who have played the courses around CM and are willing to give some accurate input as to best deals(both in quality layout and price) in the CM area. I am a low handicaper who is thinking of retiring in the CM area and so I would be especially interested in any good courses that offer a annual pass or reasonable membership, because I would like to play often. Thanks in advance for any replies.

Are there any avid expat golfers out there who can give me some input on golf courses in the CM area. I am a single digit handicap and so I am interested if there are any good layouts that are consistently maintained and are affordable to play on a regular basis. I have heard of the Mastergreens golf-one card, but the only paticipating course in town is the Lanna golf club, do any of the other courses offer a golf pass or annual membership? Thanks in advance for any replies.

Greetings to all on the Chiangmai forum. I thoroughly enjoy reading all the input on resturuants and sightseeing in the area that so many of you have thoughtfully volunteered. My wife and I are heading up to CM from the gulf area on a tour group and we are seriously thinking of just staying in CM for a couple of weeks or so and I was wondering if anyone out there had knoweledge of a decent longstay hotel in CM. Hot water and sat TV would be nice and as cool as the evenings are this time of year in CM I guess that A/C is really not needed. Thanks in advance for any advice given. Also is there any particular hangout for english speaking expats in CM?

I think it would help if you said what sort of budget you had in mind as there is no shortage of good accomadation which can work for most peoples budgets

Remo, sorry for not giving a price range. We were hoping to find something around 2000 baht per week. I did find a hostel on the internet after I posted yesterday that has private rooms for around 300bt/night, it is apparently across the street from Mikes hambuger shop(wherever that might be?). Once again thanks in advance for anyones help in this matter!

I'd reccomend using this site to get a full list of places, its not an online booking service but a review of guesthouses and hotels in SE Asia.

In the last two months, through this site we found all our accomadation for a 3 week trip in Cambodia/Vietnam and all 7 places were great.

Have also used this site to find reccomendations for places in southern thailand

As the guesthouses arent paying to be in this, so the reviews by the people operating the site are honest and were pretty much exactly how they describe each place

Lots of places anywhere from 140 - 400 a night depending on type of room. which can all be found when you click here

Remo, Sorry it took so long to get back to you, but many thanks for the guesthouse website. While we didn't wind up in any of the guesthouses in the website your posting got us thinking in that direction and we found a great little guest house with a powerful fan, sat. TV, good hot water shower for 320 bt./night. Thanks again.

Greetings to all on the Chiangmai forum. I thoroughly enjoy reading all the input on resturuants and sightseeing in the area that so many of you have thoughtfully volunteered. My wife and I are heading up to CM from the gulf area on a tour group and we are seriously thinking of just staying in CM for a couple of weeks or so and I was wondering if anyone out there had knoweledge of a decent longstay hotel in CM. Hot water and sat TV would be nice and as cool as the evenings are this time of year in CM I guess that A/C is really not needed. Thanks in advance for any advice given. Also is there any particular hangout for english speaking expats in CM?

I think it would help if you said what sort of budget you had in mind as there is no shortage of good accomadation which can work for most peoples budgets

Remo, sorry for not giving a price range. We were hoping to find something around 2000 baht per week. I did find a hostel on the internet after I posted yesterday that has private rooms for around 300bt/night, it is apparently across the street from Mikes hambuger shop(wherever that might be?). Once again thanks in advance for anyones help in this matter!

Greetings to all on the Chiangmai forum. I thoroughly enjoy reading all the input on resturuants and sightseeing in the area that so many of you have thoughtfully volunteered. My wife and I are heading up to CM from the gulf area on a tour group and we are seriously thinking of just staying in CM for a couple of weeks or so and I was wondering if anyone out there had knoweledge of a decent longstay hotel in CM. Hot water and sat TV would be nice and as cool as the evenings are this time of year in CM I guess that A/C is really not needed. Thanks in advance for any advice given. Also is there any particular hangout for english speaking expats in CM?

Greetings to all on Thai visa forum! I am currently staying just outside if Rayong and was hoping to get some information on the area from Si Racha to Bang Saen beach. My wife(Thai) and I are looking into relocating from the states to Thailand and after driving the area from Chonburi to Klaeng the area north of Si Racha and the Ban Chang area are the two areas that looked most interesting. Golf, beaches, proximity to shoping and hospitals and reasonable housing costs were the factors that made the area just north of Si Racha, the most interesting. Is there anyone out there who knows much about this area (i.e. the best hospital, lodging and realestate and dining and shoping). We are looking to rent a place in the Si racha area for 2-3 weeks to investigate more fully and so any weekly or monthly hotels that have A/C, Sat TV and are convienient to transportation would be of most interest. Also if anyone knows anything about the three tall condo buildings at the crystal bay golf club please post back. Thanks in advance to anyone who can reply.

If you decide the beds ARE too hard and want a break during your visit to Khao Yai. I suggest you could stay a couple of nights at the Khao Yai Garden Lodge.

It's owned by a German, but don't let that put you off!!!! (only joking).

Very comfortable and under 1000 baht a night easily. Food is very good and cheap.

Recommend the more expensive rooms, they're very large and well furnished in classic style.

Nice garden and pool. Very peaceful.

- I have stayed there several times.

That last post of mine didn't seem to go through so I will try again. Thanks for the suggestion Andy, we are actually planning on spending at least on day in Kao Yai national park and I'll have to check out the Kao Yai Garden Lodge. If anyone knows of any stomping grounds for english speaking expats in Korat I would be glad to trade a few beers for information and insight into life in the kingdom. Thanks again for everones input so far.

If you decide the beds ARE too hard and want a break during your visit to Khao Yai. I suggest you could stay a couple of nights at the Khao Yai Garden Lodge.

It's owned by a German, but don't let that put you off!!!! (only joking).

Very comfortable and under 1000 baht a night easily. Food is very good and cheap.

Recommend the more expensive rooms, they're very large and well furnished in classic style.

Nice garden and pool. Very peaceful.

- I have stayed there several times.

Korat -Pak Chong about 90 km

On the road from Korat to Pakchong you take the direction to Kao Yai.(left)

After about 15 minutes the row will bend to the left.Just before that bend you can follow the small road on your right to Mission Hills.There is a sign and you can't miss.

Thanks dutch. As far as the hard mattreses at the Chaophaya hotel goes, it might actually be good for my bad back. Thanks again for everones input, I look forward to visiting Korat. By the way is this Pisanee restaraunt that I have seen mentioned on this thread the primary hang out for expats in the area?

Hi VegasVic

I have stayed at the Choaphya Inn on 3 occasions. The firm (some call it hard) mattress/bed is the reason I chose to stay there. Unless one wants an S-shaped back, stay away from soft beds.

The Chaophya Inn cannot be beat for convenience.

Btw, the restaurant metioned by another post (turn right from the hotel, with log furniture) is the Texas Pub/Grill. It is open-air, no airconditioning. January is perfect weather. Good C&W music.

Enjoy Korat! Chokdee!

Thanks Ya and Soi. I will go ahead and plan on staying at the Choaphya and I look forward to trying the Texas Grill. Is there one particular bar or hangout that I would be likely to meet some expats at? Once again thanks for everyones input!

Hi,

I wrote a small guide about Korat and Roi-Et on my website. If you come to these cities, you will find information about hotels, restaurants, maps, what to do, massage, zoo, etc.

I did it only for fun, sharing information.

I lived a year in Roi-Et and now I have been living in Korat for 2 years.

enjoy,

http://sebastien DOT korat farang DOT com

Can't write it in one shot here....

Sebastien.

Sebastien, A million thanks for sharing all the great information on your website!

Korat -Pak Chong about 90 km

On the road from Korat to Pakchong you take the direction to Kao Yai.(left)

After about 15 minutes the row will bend to the left.Just before that bend you can follow the small road on your right to Mission Hills.There is a sign and you can't miss.

Thanks dutch. As far as the hard mattreses at the Chaophaya hotel goes, it might actually be good for my bad back. Thanks again for everones input, I look forward to visiting Korat. By the way is this Pisanee restaraunt that I have seen mentioned on this thread the primary hang out for expats in the area?

Many thanks for everybodys input, the Chao Phaya certainly looks like a good clean place that is centrally located. Does anyone know how far Pakchong is from Korat city, more particular the Mission Hills golf course there in that area. Once again Thanks in advance for any replies!

I will be visiting Thailand with my wife (born and raised just outside Korat) this winter and we will be visiting some of her family in the Korat area for a few days and I was wondering if there are any expats out there who could give me the name of a few decent hotels in Korat city that would be in the mid price range say 1000bt/night? Thanks in advance!

I wonder what the future for the Condo, market will be? With no more investment visa's being issued, and no new threshold set, who in their right minds, is going to buy a Condo, and those who's stay is based on such an investment, will be trapped, into holding on to theirs. How many Thais opt for Condos over houses?

Good point,

Condos may turn into Time Shares,

In viewing this thread I have a few observations as an investor and a potential retiree to Thailand. The dilema that the Thai real estate market will soon be in is not only that no one in their right mind will be buying condos(especially in Phuket, Pattaya, Hua Hin and a few other overheated markets), but that the market will be flooded with existing condos for sale in addition to the new developments. As has been stated in a prevoius post, foriegn ownership is not only 49% of these buildings, but in many cases nearly 100% due to Thai corporations owned by farangs. The combination of an already inflated condo market in these areas coupled with a soon to be massive overhang of supply and a very skidish and shrinking pool of potential buyers is the worst of all worlds for this sector. The upcoming economic woes for Thailand will not only be isolated to the real estate, but the equity sector as well. There will likely be no crash in the Thai equity markets, however as foriegn funds slowly divest themselves of many of their holdings in the Thai market, there will be a gradual but in the end a fairly substantial hit to the Thai stock market as well. I have no doubt that the Thai government had been contemplating a change in visa policy for some time to rid the country of the backpacker, hippie and permanent sex tourist, and that the negative press exposure that Thailand recieved (weather warranted or not) after the Karr incident promted this current action, however this has all occured a very inopportune time for the Thai economy due to the recent military takeover (and the announcement of a military man as interim PM) , tanks in the street, U.S. pulling its aid out ect. ect.. Tourisim will undoubtedly be hit hard, after all the pool of potential S.E. asia tourists have many options of vacation spots that don't have tanks in the streets and political unrest. Potential retirees to the LOS will also have to recheck their plans, I know that my wife and I were giving serious thought to retiring in Thailand, and while we haven't ruled it out it is far less likely to occur. In addition to us we know of three other couples all in the same situation with thai wives who were definatly planning on retireing to Thailand and now at least two of those couples have changed their plans and the other is like us and just downgrading the likelyhood of going to Thailand for retirement. I think that this scenario is being played out in Thai-American communities all over the states and elseware by babyboomers. I certainly hope that when the cabinet is announced later this week, there will be some forward thinking people selceted with strong economic and finance backrounds, because unless Thailand can shore up international investor confidence I think a crisis is likely. Our prayers and wishes are with everyone over there, lets hope this looming crisis can be avoided or at least subdued.

I believe your assement is accurate. This will not hurt Thailand short-term but it will over the course of several years. The US is going down a similar road due to similarly unintelligent decisions. IE (immigrant workers) Many Thais (not all) are happy that foreigners must leave now but once that starts occuring in earnest over time a large drop in money coming in will be experienced. One of the companies I am affiliated with was researching several avenues of investment. That effort has been redirected now to other areas in the region. They have not ruled out Thailand. They simply took it off the list for now. But if you follow that train of thought you will see that if this company decides to invest elsewhere...even if Thailand is still on the list...that will be that much less money they have to spend in Thailand. Once committed to a country more money flow usually follows requireing more local workers. Most of these workers are residents of the host countries. Money follows money. On the flip side...as Thailands property markets recede from their highs and less money goes into Thailand and more poor people are created that will make Thailand cheap again to do business if they figure out how to allow foreign capital back in. This is a net loss for Thais not a gain. Just as markets were beginning to open the doors appear to be closing. India, China, Vietnam and Malaysia all stand to benefit here. In the scheme of things Visa changes seem minor to an overall economy. The reality is that is never the case.

Two very intelligent posts on this matter. Thank you..

My view is similar, but I am more apocalyptic about the immediate impact. In January/Febraury (unless the current proposals are changed) there will be a forced exodus of foreigners, who do not fit the Visa requirements.

(a) At the bottom end (room rent B2500-B6000pcm), there will be little impact. Most of these ferrangs do not have the funds to repatriate or move on to an alternative country. They will probably stay on illegally and not care. I know many personally in this catagory. Those from this catagory that do exit to pastures green will leave their apartments ready to be let to Thai tenants, as the price range is affordable. The overall effect on the owners of this property segment is marginal, but certainly downward, in terms of prices and occupancy.

( In the main foreign occupied segmant, B6000-B18000, I envisage a substantial probelm for buy-to-let owners. The present occupiers will be prevented from staying and will deduce that maintenance of the unit as a perminant residence is uneconomic and may relocate perminantly elsewhere, or change their stays in Thailand to shorter, hotel accomodation trips. This will have a serious effect on the market, as the rental income on these types of unit plays a large part of funding the mortgage payments of the owners, which, in turn, funds the resale price of these properties. High vacancy rates, along with downward pressure on rents (a result of the forgoing) leads to declines in Property Asset Values. From then on it is a downward spiral. A classic credit crunch. Owners do not meet mortgage repayments, due to lack of rental income, banks repossess and sell for lower price to recoup losses of monies borrowed. Remaining property remains unlet/unsold at the price purchased at and therefore more owners are forced to pour money into property that is no longer worth what they paid. The market corrects itself, reacting to the reduction of available tenants (foreigners), when at the same time the price bracket of the properties is such that ordinary Thais cannot fill the void (as they can in example (a).

© In the upper end of the market (B18000 +), a large part of the occupancy is corporate, both domestic and foreign. This will be unaffected in its own right, as companies sitill need people who are housed accordingly. It will, however be influenced by the number of vacant, lower priced units, which may cause uncertainty on ownership of this sector. There is also, quite separately, a significant over-supply of such units building up, so this may be due for a correction in any case.

The net result of the above would certainly be pain for owners of property relying on rental income, reposessions and increases in NPLs. Given the inherant weakness of the Thai banking system over the years, this could create grave circumstances that those orchastrating these moves have yet to consider.

I have one word for you

CHINA

As China becomes more affluent as is happening now, they will begin to travel more as is happening now.

They will pay their money and get their visa and come here and spend their money.

Maybe not much money to begin with but their shear numbers will make up for it.

As the top end of THailand is mixed Chinese blood. Over the next few years they will marry locals, set up border business's and the money will start pouring in as is happeneing now.

The biggest market in the history of the world is right on Thailands doorstep and Thailand is set to reap the benefits. At just a dollar a head you are looking at 1.2 billion dollars.

So please dont kid yourselfs that when you and your dollars leave that it is somehow going to effect anything thats happening here. It may be a blip and not much more.

I certainly feel sorry for those that pegged their hopes on retiring in Thailand and now have to leave.

But i get the feeling that the table is being cleared for something bigger.

These recent moves to tighten everything up ie company house and land buying, visa changes, is either to stem the exponential growth that is about to happen or to facilitate it.

I believe it is to facilitate it.

Me and my dollars? Don't kid yourself, you seem very naive to the events currently unfolding. In particular the Thai condo market in Phuket, Koh Samui, Hua Hin, Pattaya and elseware was due for a substantial correction even if the visa rules had not changed and there was not a military takeover of Thailand. Given the fact that these events did occur and simultaineously at that, I think the correction that was on the way already will be far more substantial. When you speak of the Chineese you must realize that there is already a great deal of tourisim and investment in Thailand by upper and upper middle class Chineese, but the Chineese are just as astute in the investment arena as are Europeans, Americans, Canadians, Austrailians, ect. ect. ect.! The Chineese are just as aware as the rest of us in the international investment community that Thailand is a very risky place to have an investment in currently, so I have no doubt that the Chineese will also be selling off some of their Thai assets and holdings and limiting any future investment. You post seems a little defensive to me, so I am guessing that you are heavily invested in the Thai markets(real estate or stock or both), if that is the case then my advise to you would be to take off the rose colored glasses and reasess the situation for your economic well being and the economic well being of your family. I pray that this military junta will have a positive effect on Thai economy in the long term, however in the short term it will be very difficult for the Thai markets.

I wonder what the future for the Condo, market will be? With no more investment visa's being issued, and no new threshold set, who in their right minds, is going to buy a Condo, and those who's stay is based on such an investment, will be trapped, into holding on to theirs. How many Thais opt for Condos over houses?

Good point,

Condos may turn into Time Shares,

In viewing this thread I have a few observations as an investor and a potential retiree to Thailand. The dilema that the Thai real estate market will soon be in is not only that no one in their right mind will be buying condos(especially in Phuket, Pattaya, Hua Hin and a few other overheated markets), but that the market will be flooded with existing condos for sale in addition to the new developments. As has been stated in a prevoius post, foriegn ownership is not only 49% of these buildings, but in many cases nearly 100% due to Thai corporations owned by farangs. The combination of an already inflated condo market in these areas coupled with a soon to be massive overhang of supply and a very skidish and shrinking pool of potential buyers is the worst of all worlds for this sector. The upcoming economic woes for Thailand will not only be isolated to the real estate, but the equity sector as well. There will likely be no crash in the Thai equity markets, however as foriegn funds slowly divest themselves of many of their holdings in the Thai market, there will be a gradual but in the end a fairly substantial hit to the Thai stock market as well. I have no doubt that the Thai government had been contemplating a change in visa policy for some time to rid the country of the backpacker, hippie and permanent sex tourist, and that the negative press exposure that Thailand recieved (weather warranted or not) after the Karr incident promted this current action, however this has all occured a very inopportune time for the Thai economy due to the recent military takeover (and the announcement of a military man as interim PM) , tanks in the street, U.S. pulling its aid out ect. ect.. Tourisim will undoubtedly be hit hard, after all the pool of potential S.E. asia tourists have many options of vacation spots that don't have tanks in the streets and political unrest. Potential retirees to the LOS will also have to recheck their plans, I know that my wife and I were giving serious thought to retiring in Thailand, and while we haven't ruled it out it is far less likely to occur. In addition to us we know of three other couples all in the same situation with thai wives who were definatly planning on retireing to Thailand and now at least two of those couples have changed their plans and the other is like us and just downgrading the likelyhood of going to Thailand for retirement. I think that this scenario is being played out in Thai-American communities all over the states and elseware by babyboomers. I certainly hope that when the cabinet is announced later this week, there will be some forward thinking people selceted with strong economic and finance backrounds, because unless Thailand can shore up international investor confidence I think a crisis is likely. Our prayers and wishes are with everyone over there, lets hope this looming crisis can be avoided or at least subdued.