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Gold Star

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Everything posted by Gold Star

  1. Major delays occur when they try to figure out how to extract brown envelopes from a vaccine given away for free.
  2. Must they prove they have $50,000 of health insurance? Show a return flight ticket? Be double vaxed? PCR tests before and after? Prove income? Lodging? If not, my friends are asking where they can apply...
  3. My fingertip oximeter shows that a hotdog has more oxygen in it than my finger. <deleted>n China... LOL!
  4. Why would an amulet not protect you from a virus while it protects you from vehicle crashes, driving drunk, not wearing a helmet, going the wrong way down a highway, running red lights, speeding, floods, and even helps you win lotteries?
  5. Yeah, quite a deep pecking order they have here. Best I can figure, we are somewhere beneath the flea, under the Hilltribe dog.
  6. What about the unrefrigerated meats sitting in the open all the hot markets everywhere, feeding the swarms of flies landing on them, distributing bacteria while laying their eggs? The unsold warm meat goes back in the same cooler at the end of the day, and comes out again the next day. I got deathly ill once from meat bought in an open market, and now only buy cold meat from Makro, Big C, or similar. At least there are some level of standards there, and they use proper abattoirs. Like the law about riding in the back of a pickup truck, it will be ignored by most country folk. "Psst.... Wanna buy some black market bacon?"
  7. I wonder if they have enough jail space to house the hundreds of thousands of tourists coming here, being led to believe Thailand is now open?
  8. If they really want lots of people to walk in for vaccinations, they should announce that they have finally run out of Sinovac. So many I know flatly refuse it, and remain unvaccinated as a consequence to this day.
  9. Left wing alarmists such as Moore have never carried much weight with me, sharing the same consideration I give to the right wing conspiracy theorists. Looking past that, the main takeaway from it is that it shows us that when you dig deeper into the 'renewable transition' being forced upon us, it is still quite dirty and nasty, not as green as it is made out to be, and it comes with significant environmental costs. Most people are oblivious to this, thinking if they have an EV, or use gray or blue hydrogen, or renewable energy, they have no contribution to fossil fuel use. These are the same folks saying they don't kill any animals, but still buy their meat from the store. Over 90% of Thailand's electricity now comes from fossil fuels, such as gas, coal, and lignite. The Thai government has set big goals to have 30% produced by renewables by 2037. We all know how good Thai's are in meeting goals, so one must add a few to that. Presently hydrogen is produced from natural gas, as it is 2 to 3 times cheaper than green hydrogen, but hydrogen will be the future in transportation we will move towards in a few decades after the EV fad runs its course. The main benefit of EVs for us today and for the decades to come is that it helps to move the smog from the dense cities, out into the surrounding countryside where the electricity is produced. Affordability here is the main obstacle to adoption, as so many here can barely afford food, let alone a new vehicle.
  10. I don't agree with ALL the information as it is presented, but it leads one to step back and ask the right questions when told just how 'green' things are in order to come to their own conclusions about it. As such, things are not as 'green' as they are made out to be.
  11. In the stampede to transform into a renewable energy system and replace fossil fuels to save the planet, it is simply not working as well as we have been led to believe. There are consequences, and renewable systems are full of holes. From wind farms, to solar, to hydrogen, you must dig deeper to learn the surprising truth. This is an excellent must watch documentary that everyone should see:
  12. I see I was right about coal, even with the higher prices. See note 5. $42 per MWH. Gas at $24 per MWH. Non carbon capture storage units, same as the ones currently in use Asia, and being built and planned in China. This chart is for in the US, and would be even much lower in countries with low environmental standards, such as China. My point is to make sure you will not be fooled with all the green propaganda, and negative bias towards oil. Do your own research, think about the future, and invest accordingly. Good luck in whatever you choose.
  13. I'm very well aware of the current cost of coal, and natural gas. I trade off their prices even as I write this. The current pricing and disruptions in many coal markets have presented nice profitable opportunities for me. China's shortage has been politically caused, and not as much market driven. Shipping issues have driven pricing up. Gas shortages are another lively issue, as global LNG infrastructure is not as prevalent and advanced as oil. Notice the date of the data you reference, that is made in light of the current temporary spike in coal, and not priced in a normal functioning market, as I have stated referencing coal cost. I would not put my money on those figures, as more supply next year will be available as more mines ramp up production all over the world. Improvements in solar technology will be offset by rapidly rising input costs. I am also short China due to the failures of the CCP economic mismanagement, debt collapse risk, supply, housing, aging demographics, supply, material inflation and shortages, semis, domestic demand, shipping, and energy shortages. The mad rush to invest in some renewable ventures are also providing a great shorting opportunity as so much money has flowed so quickly into green but uneconomic enterprises. Like shale oil, investors will someday demand a return on their investment, and many will collapse.
  14. The issue at hand is emissions, not total energy consumption, or per capita consumption. Perhaps this illustrates the China emissions problem much more clearly, and that whatever emmission reduction you do has almost no effect, other than giving yourself a warm fuzzy feeling:
  15. No, coal costs about $40 per MWH, and wind $60 to $70 per MWH. Brown coal is even cheaper but dirtier. If you build a new plant today, the economics change, but for existing generation, this is true. Coal is reliable, cheap, and can be burned 24 hours a day. It does not rely on the wind, or the sun. In normal market conditions, it is very competitive, and there is a great abundance of it. It is the dirtiest but cheapest fuel to use. EVs will be charged mostly at night, when the sun doesn't shine. The Chinese don't care, and will continue to spew coal emissions. Even one of my Thai neighbors has gone back to cooking with charcoal as the price of gas and electricity got too high, and I now smell it every mealtime. Anyway, the debate is endless. Unless you are the guy that ate an undercooked bat, one person can't change the world. I understand climate ramifications, but I'll continue to invest in what I see as a once in a lifetime opportunity in oil, whose early demise is clearly exaggerated and undervalued as most don't understand the big picture.
  16. Return of capital to shareholders is now the paramount objective over growth. An executive that now sets out to spend capital to grow production will be sacked. The billions lost by companies during the last shale boom in order to grow production has been a hard lesson for them to learn, and nobody will finance them now unless they demonstrate restraint and are obligated to perform in conservative ways to return the cash. Significant changes in capital restraint have occured, proven by at the recent Q3 reports form Exxon, and even Saudi Aramco, among many others. Investors demand the return of cash, and it is happening. The US hyper shale boom is over. They are faced with Increased costs: wages, and steel, service costs, inflation, and the demand for return of capital. Rig counts are at half levels, drilled but uncompleted well inventory (DUCs) are now down. Frac spreads are at half levels as before, and hardly moving.
  17. Cartel action is what we are led to believe, but OPEC+ spare capacity is nearing it's limits as proven by some of its members even now not being able to meet their newly expanded monthly quotas. They all have overinflated their production baseline abilities to allow them the maximum production freedom. The cartel does have some influence by withholding production to keep prices up through events like this last pandemic, but they are only about 2 mmbpd awy from their maximum limit. it is in their best interest to keep prices high. However I disgree about capital investment. The largest factor leading to higher prices starting now and moving forward is the lack of capital investment in oil E&P, which is now globally only around 65 to 70% of what is needed to replace the reserves we are consuming to maintain demand on the energy treadmill, let alone expand production to meet the increased needs. The results of this lack of capital investment typically hits the fan about 5 years after initial investment, as it is the average time for most big projects to be developed and start flowing. The timing of that is also unfortunately just when the substantial increased demand from the emerging world economies will also occur, and those are the ones that cannot afford a transition. I do agree that it is a precious useful resource we have been gifted on this planet, much too valuable to burn for a fuel, that geologically takes millions of years to be created in the earth's crust, and not easily replaced.
  18. This war on fossil fuels has made this otherwise poor retiree over 2 million dollars in my oil investments in the last 10 months, returning almost 300%, as the curtailment of supply has led to this energy crisis we now face. Energy prices will continue to rise further until it reaches it's highest point, where it starts to become unaffordable and causes reduced demand. Depletions, and exhaustion of OPEC+ spare capacity combined with low capital investment ensures we will see higher prices for the long term. It is now merely at an average price, based on adjusted inflation records over the last 30 years. These lean companies are becoming cash flow producing monsters, returning vast amounts of cash to investors, paying down debt, and buying back shares. Most have plans for net zero emissions in the near future, with some presently being net negative emitters. However, they have been tossed in the trash in the haste of the predjudiced ESG movement that paints all in the group with the same brush. Some of these trade around at a mere 2 to 3 times free cash flow to enterprise value. Normally, it would be around 6 times, so there is a LOT of upside left. A big thank you goes out to the vast amount of people that have been misled to believe we will suddenly wake up tomorrow morning all driving EVs in a green world and solve climate change. Far before the trillions of dollars for infrastructure is even allocated to be invested, they have been burning our bridge to renewables by waging a war to restrict activity and capital investment in fossil fuels, specifically oil. This has led to a parabolic explosion in the value of existing oil production companies with reserves. It ignores the fact that oil will be needed for centuries to come in the form of fuel, plastics, lubrication, petrochemicals, fertilizers, medicines, etc. , not to mention to produce the materials needed for this 'energy transition'. This presents a once in a lifetime opportunity, as the world has been duped to beleive this is a 'renewable energy transition', but it is not. It is merely a 'renewable energy addition' as energy demands are ever increasing. For example, China, the largest emitter, is going full speed ahead with new coal plants, ignoring the problem. Watch what they do, not what they say. As I write this, I see oil is up yet another $1.23 per barrel, bringing about another $200,000 in value to my investments. It is just beginning and is still not to late to get on board the oil train if you havn't already. To those fighting fossil fuels, do not dispair, and please keep up your efforts. The damage you are causing to supply, regional economies, travel, and making people's lives more miserable and costly is making some people that can see the opportunities very comfortable and happy.
  19. China is by far the largest emitter by a factor of 2 today over the next largest, the US, and refuses to stop building coal fired generators. Its adopted green initiatives do not even cover their increase in energy demand. <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/270499/co2-emissions-in-selected-countries/" rel="nofollow"><img src="https://www.statista.com/graphic/1/270499/co2-emissions-in-selected-countries.jpg" alt="Statistic: Carbon dioxide emissions in 2009 and 2019, by select country* (in million metric tons) | Statista" style="width: 100%; height: auto !important; max-width:1000px;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;"/></a><br />Find more statistics at <a href="https://www.statista.com" rel="nofollow">Statista</a>
  20. Only a few can afford it, and many do not have a place to charge it. Lower the price, and have wireless charging. Only then may it possibly have a chance.
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