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Bruce1

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Posts posted by Bruce1

  1. I'm sorry to say this meltdown is America isn't surprising at all, but results from decades of spending more than was earned and borrowing the rest. Clinton balanced the budget but the Republicans under Bush have bent the national credit card so ridiculously that the USA is now dependent on foreign savings to keep the country afloat. Clearly, the Bush team has failed to supervise lending and has been asleep at the wheel. Bush and Co. are simply incompetent.

    Isn't it fascinating that Republican Congressmen have rejected a plan by a Republican President to have taxpayers clean up a mess created under a Republican administration. Even the Republicans reject Bush.

    Sadly, even the Republicans appear to still reject reality. The $700 billion package should have been passed, because the alternative will cost a LOT more.

    BTW the Aussie $ has fallen to real levels and its value is real, unlike the US$, whose value is impossible to predict in the future. I predict a mass exodus out of the US$ into the Euro and other sound currencies.

    Also, I think America is stuffed. They remind me of the Romans, whose arrogance and stupidity eventually undermined their own power. Rome was sacked by the Celts and the legions had to abandon Britain and retreat to Italy.

    Whoever is the next US President will have absolutely no room to manoueuvre. Promises made during the campaign are worthless. The next president will be basically powerless. The terrorists will gain power in Afghanistan and may overrun the Iraqi Government. America will have no choice but to bring the soldiers home. Her allies should get out now.

    America has been hollowed out from within and will now turn inwards for at least a decade. That is Bush's legacy.

  2. I think the lack of comment from you know who is very interesting and, I assume, implies a refusal to favour either side in this.

    I also think the Army chief is to be commended for keeping the troops in the barracks. Why should the Army intervene every time a politician becomes unpopular?

    I hope neither the current government nor the PAD win this confrontation as neither seems very democratic. Maybe this confrontation will cause both to become discredited.

    Best result would be fresh elections. Hopefully the Samak Govt debacle would cause more people to vote for other parties.

    Surely its about time to give the actual Opposition, whichis not the PAD but the Democrats, a chance to show what they can do. They could hardly do a worse job.

  3. This is very dangerous.

    I assume both Samak and Sondhi would quite like the Army to stage a coup, but only if it benefits their side.

    So its very good the Army chief is saying "no coup" because this is not a matter which should be resolved by force.

    Hopefully the police will arrest some people and everyone will calm down and go home and have a beer and a massage and life will return to normal.

    Democracy means government by talking, not shooting. If we can get through this peacefully, it will be a good sign for democracy in the LOS.

  4. What a pity they aren't serious about encouraging foreign investment as it would bring big benefits to the LOS. This talk of Thais being bought out of their own country is nonsense because obviously if a Thai sells a property to a foreigner the Thai gets a big chunk of money to use to buy another property, so they're not homeless, they're wealthy. Foreigners would only buy in certain market segments anyway, I can't see too many foreigners buying a straw roofed shack in the hills.

    A bit of property inflation would make the Thai owners of most properties wealthier and they could use the money to improve their lives, so everyone would benefit. That would be a big improvement on the present situation where average housing is a very poor investment and going nowhere financially. In developed countries real estate appreciation underpins the economy. Look what a mess America is in because they screwed up their property market and undermined their economy. They provide a good example of what not to do.

    Another point worth mentioning is that corruption involving foreigners can only occur if Thais act corruptly, so before blaming foreigners for their problems they should look in the mirror and ask if they really act in the ways their Buddhism teaches that they should act. Pretty obvious really...

  5. Gas should be no more volatile than petrol. Obviously there was a leak from the tank. This would be about poor installation standards, I imagine, not about the general safety of gas. Gas is widely used on many countries as a vehicle fuel with minimal problems as long as maintenance is OK.

  6. This is very good news for the rule of law in LOS.

    But it will cause political problems if Mr and Mrs T stay in Thailand and fight the charges and possibly foster a bit of unrest. It would be better all round if they did leave and not come back. Then the authorities could presumably sieze the money sitting in Thai bank accounts and reclaim it for the state and do something useful with it. Is the amount frozen really 70 billion baht or some smaller figure?

    Its also interesting that the conviction is for tax evasion. At the time of the sale it was argued the sale was tax free and legal. Personally, I thought the sale should have been legal, but they should have paid tax on it. So, allow the foreign investment, but tax it at the appropriate level. Now it seems to be accepted the sale was legal and the focus has shifted to getting the tax. This is actually a good scenario as striking down the sale would have sent a very bad signal to foreign investors in LOS. No investor could argue against paying the appropriate rate of tax, surely.

    I remember Mr T's diplomatic passport was cancelled a while back. Mrs T's passport has surely been siezed pending the result of these cases, and wouldn't the same be true for Mr T? If they run, they won't be able to come back legally without valid passports. They'll also be stateless. Would Hong Kong or Britain accept them? After all, being convicted of tax evasion makes it harder to argue you're the victim of political persecution, surely?

  7. Sadly, I think it may be true that the PAD sees provoking a military coup against Samak, as previously against Thaksin, as a legitimate tactic. Personally, I disagree. I think coups are very bad for society. Lets hope the military stays out of it this time. Gen Anapong has repeatedly said the military will not stage a coup - lets hope he can make that stick.

    The last coup didnt resovle the underlying problems which caused the tension, it merely deferrred them and they're back again. ANother coup won't solve them either.

    They can only be resolved through democratic negotiation.

  8. Its really good the way the Army are staying out of it and the police are avoiding confrontation. This is just normal democratic politics, part of government by talking (as opposed to government by shooting). It really doesn't matter if the PPP are good or bad, whats important is that political opinions be able to be expressed openly without repressive crackdowns. Of course, the PAD are under immense responsibility to keep it peaceful. If they resort to violence then the government would be justified in cracking down to restore public order.

    I really hope this country keeps its head and resolves this peacefully.

  9. I think its fascinating how weak the consumers are in LOS, they appear to have little market power and to be at the mercy of those who want to exploit and patronise them. They put up up with being treated like lepers by lenders, when actually the loan default rate here is not unusually high, from what I've heard. Thais could have a much higher standard of average housing if they had governments which were prepared to insist the financiers gave them a better deal. Its like credit is almost a dirty word, instead of being a way to improve living standards.

  10. Its interesting they won't consider farangs' assets held overseas, maybe in their home country. All sorts of legal reasons I guess. Reality is there are quite a few farangs here who have good assets back home. You'd think the banks here would at least consider a history of rental income available from overseas when making decisions about peoples' loan applications.

    I take your point about farang dregs, but most farangs are not dregs so they need to broaden their thinking.

    I actually think the big opportunities are in the second hand market here, but the system is not set up to support it.

    I reckon there are plenty of homes which could be done up a bit and sold for a decent profit if financing was easier.

    However, I for one won't be selling up back home to buy here while the system is as it is. No skin off my nose, but it does deprive LOS of the money I could spend if it were more welcoming here.

  11. The US$200,000 minimum is the thing I object to. I have that money, but I wouldn't bring it into LOS under the current circumstances.

    I suspect most farangs here would be looking to spend a lot less than that to buy property anyway. Maybe this is just intended to try to support the overpriced luxury condo developers in Bangkok.

  12. Far too expensive to interest me. And there's the visa issues in the background. And, do Bangkok condos worth 9-10m baht increase in value - are they actually good investments?

    Also, as someone said, how silly that Thai banks are not supposed to lend to foreigners - that's just stupid. The assumption that foreigners are more likely to default on loans is just a fantasy. If anything, I would think the opposite is true.

    I already have a mortgage in Oz, largely funded by rent. A much more stable environment for debt than here.

  13. It's great to see they're finally showing some signs of getting over their anti-foreigner paranoia and moving towards more real-world rules. However, I still wouldn't buy on a lease, I'd want freehold outright and in my name only before I'd buy in Thailand or anywhere else.

    Canberra has 99-year leases on government-owned land so it can be done, but I still think its a second-rate choice.

    Over time, its the land value which goes steadily up, while house values fluctuate depending on whether they're maintained and how old they are. After 100 years or so, what you're buying is a block of land with a house which needs to be knocked down and replaced.

    As someone said, allowing in foreign buyers won't price poor Thais out of housing, because they're in different sections of the market/. Plus, a bit of property price inflation would be good for most Thais because it would increase the value of their houses and make them wealthier. I bought my house in Brisbane for $320,000 4 years ago and the bank now values it at $480,000, which is very nice. Property is a 10-year cycle, not a quick buck.

    The Thais have got to stop thinking like they're a poor third world economy and start thinking like they're managing the 37th largest economy in the world. For instance, they should also deregulate the rice market to shift power away from millers to the farmers, who would be able to play off the millers against each other or even store their rice until the price was right to sell. Instead of being so paternalistic, they ought to move more power to the people to make decisions for themselves.

    But what would I know, I'm just a farang.

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