chessman

5 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

so why extension of restrictions ?? 

Good question. I think things will open up a lot in May. Richard Barrow already reporting that alcohol will be back on sale on Sunday. Some restaurants opening soon too. If the numbers are still this low on June 1st and the Restrictions are still this strong then I think almost everybody will be critical of the government.

Road deaths are a separate issue, government should do much more.

57 minutes ago, SMEinBangkok said:

I didn't offer an interpretation. 

Right, the 1st paragraph in your opening post is not an interpretation. 

44 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

So will the C19 death toll be 460,000 by the 5th May ??

Obviously not, social distancing has reduced the R0 number to below 1 in most countries.

There are lots of good arguments about different strategies and the best way to deal with the virus but comparing the deaths caused by an infectious virus with the potential to grow exponentially and a stable cause of death such as road accidents is not a good start.

54 minutes ago, BeltAndRoad said:

Master of Puppets

Or maybe they are just as blind and ignorant as the rest of us.

And if worldwide road deaths started doubling every 4 days, would most countries take action?

1 minute ago, mauGR1 said:

Fair enough, and if you apply circular reasoning to your conspiracy theories, it's exactly the same.

Early on in this thread I posted a link to a New York Times page that showed comparative death data from a range of countries. Deaths are spiking this year. This virus is very real.

analysis of comparative death data should be bit more reliable than anecdotes about hospitals not being that busy.

in your posts you tend to focus on the economic problems that this virus is causing and will cause in the future. This is also very real. (By the way, the main stream media that you seem to loath are covering this effect of the virus too). 
 

unfortunately, for some, their focus on the economic problems mean that they dismiss the health crisis which is also very real. Most reasonable people should acknowledge that there is a delicate balance between the two that needs to be dealt with very carefully.

At the moment, society is trying to find that balance - And people shouting about conspiracy theories and made up deaths and viruses don’t really help, they might in fact undermine their own arguments. The people who have lost their jobs and livelihoods need people who can fight for them on the figures, not on crazy theories that the whole thing is made up.
 

4 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Apart from calling names, do you have other arguments ?

Not much one can do for the deeply entrenched. These conspiracy theories are reinforced by circular reasoning: both evidence against the conspiracy and an absence of evidence for it are re-interpreted as evidence of its truth. 

2 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

In the meanwhile, the economy of millions of families has been shut, but there's no need to worry, as it does not affect you.

Crazy conspiracy theories will not help these families

1 minute ago, SMEinBangkok said:

It's not my case.  

I didn't write the academic, peer-reviewed articles for these professional medical journals.  Argue with the people who wrote them.

Right but they don’t support your interpretation.

4 minutes ago, Brewster67 said:

St Mary's hospital on the Isle of Wight, UK was on the TV news as the army had been drafted in to expand their bed capacity by 200 beds, and yet a nurse working there said that the hospital for the first time in her entire career was running at just 40% capacity and that doctors and nurses were sitting around twiddling their thumbs or rehearsing song and dance routines to post on Tik Tok.

 

All this while elderly people are being left to die at home untreated and the mainstream media reporting daily that hospitals are like 'war zones' which just is not true... hospitals always were at 100% or even higher capacity, they are now half empty all over the country.

 

And like good performing seals, the people of the UK go out onto their doorsteps at 8pm every Thursday to applaud the NHS staff....... for all those Tik Tok videos it seems.

1 - when there is an infectious disease you need to separate staff and medical areas so the infections do not spread.

2 - Less people are making ‘routine’ visits to hospitals, party because they are scared of visiting hospitals (this is a real and serious issue).

3 - so some hospitals and wards are really busy, some are not. There are also geographical considerations, some areas have much more cases. Anecdotal evidence that a hospital is not busy is not really enough to make a case.

1 hour ago, SMEinBangkok said:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2374803/
American Journal of Public Health May 2008 showing deaths per 100,000 from seasonal flu.  There are over a dozen months between 1941 and 1976 when the mortality rate far exceeded the coronavirus' death rate per 100,000

Am not sure these papers are really making your case.

look at the following graph from the above source.

first, we should say that the number of reported cases at the time is much lower than the adjusted figure. This will likely happen with Covid 19 too. Preliminary data from the USA suggests that overall mortality if going up by much more than what can be accounted for by reported Covid 19 deaths. So the official number of 63,000 deaths in the USA is similar to the low line line on the graph. It will be adjusted to a higher number. 
 

Secondly, it seems that the worst 12 month period for flu, using the post-virus adjusted-up estimates are about 50,000 deaths. Well, in 2 months in the US, despite extreme social distancing rules, it’s already killed more than that. And it continues to kill.

3 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

I was surprised to hear from my sister (recently retired A&E doctor), that her colleagues were reporting exactly the same. In the U.K...

Empty hospital, over staffed and people bringing them free food, because they are under the impression that they are overwhelmed !!!

Edited 1 minute ago by cornishcarlos

Yes,  people working in A&E seem to be less busy

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/27/fears-seriously-ill-a-and-e-numbers-drop-coronavirus-nhs

am sure there is a divide with some doctors and nurses working much more and those not involved with Covid being much less busy.

4 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

Reckless and untested musings with raw first hand data. 

If a clinic allows walk-ins to get tested for a virus and then uses the percentage that are positive to extrapolate the percentage who are positive in the whole state, and then advocate policy positions based on this figure, this seems pretty reckless. What kind of person would visit a clinic and want to get tested?

7 minutes ago, Brewster67 said:

We all know deats of the elderly and sick that starts with cold or flu are being added to the Covid-19 stats because they are coronaviruses.

Then how would you account for the massive rise in deaths compared to historical averages?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

complain all you want about the MSM media suppressing the ‘truth’, they actually suppress much less and have less rigid agendas than the ideologically driven news on the far right and far left.

2 hours ago, Ryan754326 said:

Maybe this will balance out the numbers from New York, where they are counting “probable” deaths from Covid19, without a positive test. 

They are underestimating deaths everywhere including New York, especially in New York!

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

Imagine you are buying a car and you ask about the safety record of two similar cars. The dealer says ‘we sold 5.3 million of this car and 207 people have been killed in fatal accidents’. Then you ask about the similar car and the dealer says “we sold 10.2 million of this car and 2586 people have been killed in fatal accidents”. You are surprised at the difference and suggest the 1st car is much safer. The dealer shakes his head and states that there is basically no difference.

that is the argument these guys are making about Sweden and Norway. 

9 hours ago, Logosone said:

So Sweden still doing very well indeed:

This guy would agree with you, his name is Gustav Lloyd Agerblad. He likes Sweden’s approach so much he got a tattoo of Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist who is masterminding Sweden’s approach. I wonder if this is the first ever tattoo of an epidemiologist?

10 hours ago, finnsk said:

In some western countries, where there is reliable death numbers and death reasons, the totally yearly death numbers is lower now under the covid lock downs, than in other years with out covid and lock downs.

People keep making statements like this but I’ve not seen any evidence for it. There is plenty of evidence the other way, evidence that suggests deaths are being severely under-reported. Look at this piece in the Financial Times analysing ‘excess mortality’ this year compared with previous years. Deaths this year are much higher in most places, even with reported Covid deaths added. 

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

they suggest excess mortality this year is 60% higher than previous average + Covid deaths.

this shouldn’t be a surprise. Most deaths from viruses are under-reported at the time. 

1 hour ago, Xaos said:

Why u all thaivisa experts listen to some front line microbiologists? 

Is there such a thing as a front line microbiologist? They are emergency surgeons.

you can read this which goes through their claims point by point.

https://theprepared.com/blog/dr-ericksons-viral-covid-19-briefing-video-is-dangerously-wrong/

then make up your own mind.

To me, the most important point they make is that other kinds of medical care is not happening as it should and this really needs to be addressed. Some of their other claims seem very dubious.