Blue Mango

1 hour ago, AlexRich said:

The Germans got their act together and tested. If they hadn’t they’d be having the same issues as other countries. So far Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea have done likewise, with good results. They all learned the lessons from previous outbreaks like SARS. 

Spot on. As nasty as it was, SARS was a great rehearsal for those countries. 

4 hours ago, Logosone said:

German hasn't banned gatherings of more than two people, more than two people can still congregate outside if they are from the same household. The actual German distance prescription is smaller 1.50 m, not 2 m like in the UK. There are also a few other differences, but the key difference of the German approach is this:

 

From the start Germany has aggressively tested, identified and isolated carriers. This was possible in Germany because they had a lot of test kits which were produced quickly, and also a lot of icu beds (28000 to the UK's 5000), more respirators.

 

The UK has not tested in the same way as Germany, though recently BJ has announced he will. It is not testing in the same way however. Germany's testing approach is more aggressive.

 

But yes, in recent days there has been a convergence in that countries that hitherto had adopted different approaches, such as testing and isolating (Germany and Singapore or SKorea) or herd immunity (Netherlands) have  in fact also added the social distancing favoured in the UK, except Germany that had it a bit earlier than the UK. The UK of course has to rely on social distancing more because at least initially they do not have the testing or treatment facilities of others like Germany. That's what Neil Ferguson said in his report, that they did not consider testing because they did not have the test kits.

 

The reason why all the others are jumping on the social distancing bandwagon is perhaps that they saw the UK change from herd immunity approach to social distancing (suppression). This was because Neil Ferguson revised his paper radically and suddenly came to a very different conclusion.

 

Other countries would have seen how much the UK relies on social distancing and no doubt added it to the repertoire because it was seen as another measure, which probably works if the UK relies on it so much.

 

The evidence that social distancing works at all is very flimsy though, and is basically based on influenza pandemics. However the influenza virus is fundamantally different and transmission is different. Transmission with Covid19 is much quicker, because it's asymptomatic, ie by stealth, and because 50% of those infected show no symptoms at all. This means that the speed of the transmission works against social distancing. If it is the case that the UK is approaching 60% of infected then social distancing would make no sense anymore as herd immunity would be close. Not that it made that much sense to start with, as it merely delayed transmission a little bit, due to the speed of Covid19 transmission. That was not known when Ferguson penned his paper.

 

 

So, in a nutshell, Germany have also implemented social distancing. Therefore Germany are also following Ferguson. 

This Ferguson chap seems to wield more power and influence over Earthlings than General Zod ????

25 minutes ago, tomster said:

So based on 621,626 confirmed cases and 28,658 deaths we get a death rate of 4.6%.

 

You would agree this is about right, maybe a bit out either way but not too far off where the true value would be?

That 621k figure only tells us the number of confirmed cases. The death ratio would be considerably lower if we knew the true number of people infected - which we probably never will. 

36 minutes ago, Logosone said:

There is no question that many governments copied what the US and UK were doing. Singapore, South Korea, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands being some of the notable exceptions, and coincidentally being the most successful in mitigating deaths. 

I don't have the inclination to fact check all of your claims, but here's what I found on Germany after a 2 second search.  Sounds pretty much in line with the measures the UK implemented? 

Before entering quarantine, Merkel tightened Germany's lockdown measures including banning gatherings of more than two people. Last week, she called the disease the country's biggest challenge since World War II.

Germany has already closed down schools, non-essential shops and urged people not to gather in groups

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/german-chancellor-merkel-in-quarantine-as-country-bans-gatherings-of-more-than-two-to

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Here we have the good Dr Neil Ferguson on record:

 

"Our estimates – while subject to much uncertainty due to the limited data currently available – suggest that the impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the twentieth century."

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/coronavirus-fatality-rate-estimated-imperial-scientists/

 

Fast forward one month and it's:

 

"UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower"

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

 

And he's saying he didn't back-peddle, that sly little weasel....

 

He can go sit on a Christmas tree this stupidass Dr Ferguson. He's had the whole world closed down because 0.003% of the population of the UK may or may not die in the next few weeks, the majority of whom are over 80 years old and would have died anyway.

You say "He's had the whole world closed down because 0.003% of the population of the UK may or may not die in the next few weeks"

So you're saying all the governments across the world are following the advice of one British guy? And some say the British no longer have any influence... ????

55 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Excellent point and well made.

 

I'm still trying to digest that I can't go get a massage or go to a good restaurant because 0.003% of the UK will die in the next few months, most over 80.

 

 

You blame the UK for closing down restaurants and massage shops in Thailand? Is there anything you don't blame the UK for? ????‍♂️

17 hours ago, EricTh said:

Whenever I walk pass by somebody smoking, I can feel my throat starting to cough and phlegm swells within seconds.

This happens whenever you walk past somebody smoking? I think you should be tested for the Snowflake virus ????

2 minutes ago, piewarmer said:

1 hour ago, kenk24 said:

 

I once met a young marine in a bar who was bragging abt getting a bj for free in a bar down the block... I told him it wasn't free, he just stiffed her on the tip.. then he wanted to hit me.

I have had a few free samples for 30 seconds, it's not rare

And did you also stiff them on the tip? 

2 minutes ago, Nakmuay887 said:

Lol. From reading this comment I'd likely assume the "friend" is in fact you. 

 

I just spent 5 days in BKK and my hotel was literally next door, I didn't see a cop once inside of Nana plaza. Security yes, at the front entrance. The cops aren't standing over your shoulder watching what you do. Sure it's a free for all inside Nana plaza.. BUT I don't believe a word of whoever this story happened to. 

 

Also why the trouble over such a small amount of money? Your "friend" shouldn't be visiting such places or that area if he's broke. That's asking for trouble. He had the money to buy her a lady drink but not the money to pay her the 1k when an altercation happened? What did he expect to purchase with no money exactly? 

Maybe he just liked the music and the decor. That's why people go to Nana gogo bars , right? ????

7 minutes ago, plumberman123 said:

its no joke pal

 

hes had a terribkle experience

 

I'd say he learnt a valuable lesson. Pay the young lady who you allow to play with your trouser snake, or get banged up for the night. 

Did he think she was doing it because she couldn't resist him? 

1 hour ago, plumberman123 said:

He has said that he went into an ago go and a hooker sat with him, he bought her a drink and then she started giving him a handjob of which he didnt request.

So when he takes a lady back to his room, does he insist on a discount for all the things she does to him that he didn't request? Is he a lawyer by any chance? Or just tight maybe...????

On 1/15/2020 at 12:29 PM, BobinBKK said:

Soi 6? Don't you mean soi boom boom? Most bar fronts in Pattaya have rooms upstairs for boom boom and all the bar girls are for sale.

No offence, but this is like someone going on a forum for electricians and explaining how to wire a plug. 

On 1/15/2020 at 9:46 AM, Bugsy777 said:

The ladyboys can play pool with you, drink with you, funny as f***. Sure, they try and get a little more but if you're silly enough, you deserve it. Whenever it's time to move on I just politely explain that, yes they look beautiful, but I'm into girls.

Just curious - If you're into girls why would you be playing pool with ladyboys instead of with girls? 

And I disagree about LBs being beautiful. To me they just look like LBs ????

On 1/8/2020 at 10:30 AM, SkyFax said:

According to the NY Times (updated) Jan. 8, 2020, 4:39 PM Bangkok time

 

The airline said 167 passengers and nine crew members were on board.

Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine’s minister of foreign affairs, said the victims included 82 Iranians and 11 Ukrainians, including nine Ukrainian crew members. Sixty-three passengers were from Canada, 10 from Sweden, four from Afghanistan, three from Germany and three from Britain, he said.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/07/world/middleeast/iran-plane-crash-boeing-ukraine.html

The Iranian authorities say 147 of the passengers were Iranian, suggesting that 65 of the passengers were dual passport holders. I think it's safe to say virtually all of the passengers were Iranian, but some held foreign passports. So 63 of the passengers were probably Iranians who live in Canada. 

I don't think anyone without Iranian heritage would want to visit Iran, unless on a humanitarian mission to help the long suffering Iranian civilians. 

4 hours ago, EricTh said:

I doubt the terrorists would know whether you are American or not just by looking at you.

 

I think they will target the US embassies instead.

Probably right.  But then again, Islamist terrorists don't really care where you're from, or whether you're black, white, Christian, Muslim, Jewish, adult, child, baby. Just as long as they blow some civilians up to further their cause and send their message. 

At least in the civilised world we aim at strategic and military targets - even though sometimes there are unintended civilian casualties. 

On 8/3/2019 at 11:47 AM, rickudon said:

AS his current house has a huge mortgage, i would suggest selling it and buying something much cheaper and basic (possibly a long way from London) and then rent THAT out and invest the rest. 

 

As to pensions, I assume you have already looked at  how much your pension pot would generate if you retire at 55. Many people are way to optimistic, annuities are now pretty dreadful. My ex-wife thought that if i could retire at 58, she could too. Her private pension (separate to her work pension) which she paid into for 20 years got her just 600 GBP a year. After blowing her 2 lump sums, she was back at work nearly full time 2 years later.

 

Bearing in mind Brexit and exchange rates, you will need about 2000 GBP a month income to qualify for retirement, maybe a bit more..(index linked, preferably)... you can always go the 800,000 baht in the bank route, or use an agent, but as many have found to their cost, immigration rules can change !

 

You need a 30+ year plan, so do not rush it. And take care that some thai girl doesn't erode your savings faster than you thought, they are very good at that.....

I have a meeting tomorrow with my financial adviser. I have 4 different pension pots from companies I've worked for over the past 30 years, all varying in type and size. I gave the details to my IFA a few weeks back and he's going to map out my options and show me where I'll be at age 55 and onwards. For example, at 55 I can get X per month, or take a lump sum and get Y per month. He's also going to include the state pension, which for me kicks in at age 67. 

After the meeting tomorrow it'll hopefully be clear whether or not I'll be comfortable enough when I reach 55, and therefore whether I only have to budget for another 5 years. Of course It would be better if I find a job / business idea in the meantime anyway.  As you say I need to be looking at the next 30+ years, so the more I have the better. 

And re the Thai girls, I've always known where to draw the line when it comes to 'helping' them. But you're right - they're very good at eroding the savings if you're not careful! 

1 hour ago, murraynz said:

if the property market is bouyant in the area where your house is..your best option is to sell-cash-up.

find some other way to get a 'safe' return from your net equity.

go to thailand for 6 mths to experience life there, more long term....you may get bored, knowing that you have to be careful what you spend...most areas in thailand are more expensive now.

if it was me--- i would be more 'actively' looking for work--anything must be better than nothing-surely.

then move to thailand, once you can claim a pension.

with your investment income--you could have a good life--forever==== without worrying about your money running out...

Wise words - thanks.

I am actively looking for work, and as time moves on (and the funds dwindle away) I'm becoming less and less choosy. Anything that will pay the bills really! 

1 hour ago, sunnyboy2018 said:

An agency will source tenants  deal with maintenance and any other problems for 12%.

Good point, but the fact is I would have zero income if I kept the house.  My mortgage payments are higher than the monthly rental I would get. 

Right now I'm living on the remainder of my redundancy money, and once that's gone I have some savings which could sustain me for a bit longer. Selling the house and getting the equity gives me a few more options. Hence looking at an earlier than planned move to Thailand. 

I'm a Brit living in the UK, having visited Thailand every year for the past 20 years (usually 2/3 times per year). I've thought for a long time I'll probably move to Thailand when I retire. 

But at the age of 49 I was made redundant in Oct last year, and have spent the last 8/9 months trying to get job and also trying to start up my own business. All the time seeing my redundancy pay and savings slowly being eaten away. 

I just turned 50 and I'm reaching a kind of 'do or die' point in my life. I can't get a job, I'm not succeeding at starting a business, and I have about 6 months of money left at the current burn rate. If I sell my house I'll have ~GBP275k after paying off the mortgage. I could then rent a place in the UK, buy an apartment in Spain which I can get some income from while eeking out the rest of my cash until I can start dipping into several private pensions at age 55. 

Or, I could look at making the move to Thailand sooner than planned. I like spending time in Samui, Phuket, Krabi, and also getting close to nature, jungle stays, fishing etc., but I'm not sure I could live in a jungle type area. I do like nightlife and (Thai) women, but I'm not a big fan of Patts (I don't knock anyone who is). 

I could possibly base myself in Bkk and go to those other places as and when. In Bkk I might even find work - I was in financial services for 30 years. 

I suppose my questions are, if I take the plunge, sell my house and get GBP275k, could I make a decent life in LOS, what would be the best option in terms of accommodation (buy condo, rent etc.), and could I stretch those funds out for another 5 years until I can dip into pensions? 

Cheers