BuddyPish

1 hour ago, fondue zoo said:

 

How do they do this without it falling into "manipulation" ?

 

It helps when the entity calling others "manipulators" (US Treasury Department) is the greatest currency manipulator in the history of the world. It has no claim to the moral high ground.

5 hours ago, sambum said:

 

Well, mine is half full, and I can't see any writing on the wall!

You probably can but it's probably looks like hieroglyphics to your eyes. 

11 minutes ago, sambum said:

 

So your glass is half empty then? 🙂 

No.
I can just read the writing on the wall

Lucky enough to still be earning so the exchange rate doesn't really matter.
Financial speculation (Index futures) 

4 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Is the Boht overpriced on USD?  Look at the ten year average USD/Baht rate:  33.20.  Yes, it is now overpriced.  And look what USD did yesterday vs Viet Nam Dong—it bounced up—not down like in Thailand.

I think you'll find it's the dollar that's over priced.

It's headed for the scrapheap.
Wait until the Saudis start selling oil in currencies other than USD.
 

3 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Totally agree. But that view is not popular with members, you can fully expect that within six months somebody will quote that the experts said the Pound would reach 33 and it never happened. Been there, done that.

 Yeah but no one would dare predict 73 

26 minutes ago, sambum said:

 

I preferred it in the early 80's when I got 73 THB to the British Pound!!!

The overhang from the Asian financial crisis lasted a lot longer than it should have but those days are over for good.

Frankly, you've more chance of seeing 33 baht to a pound than 73.

Blame decades of fiscal and monetary profligacy coupled with the sheer stupidity of Brexit.

13 minutes ago, Hardcastle P said:

Finally the penny drops Thailand is no longer the home of honey ,good value holidays.

Put this on the top of the cost of air fairs and you can forget bumper numbers of tourists. 

Air fares are pretty reasonable from India, China, Korea, Japan, the Middle East etc. 

No sign of a let up in visitors from these countries and you don't hear them whining about exchange rates because they have money

8 hours ago, Luuk Chaai said:

Wise is currently @ 32.92   ouch !

oh.   and the Fed.. did already drop the rate..

and who can we thank for this ?

https://www.bidenomics.com/

 

Clueless

1 minute ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

True - BUT - Expats marry/befriend a LOT of Thai girls/whatever and help their families.

PLUS - Expats buy a lot of Apartments - or buy Houses for the Thai Wife - and cars/bikes.

AND - Even if there is only 150K of them here (still?) that equates to about 150 Billion Baht - or about 3 million 'quality' Tourists (as per TAT stats). If there are 300K it totals 300 Billion Baht or 6 million quality tourists.  Expats are not worth keeping here year after year after year???

True but the migrants buying apartments, houses, cars, bikes etc aren't the ones who are going to be leaving on account of exchange rates.
Of course Thailand benefits from having migrants live here but my point is that they're not crucial to the economy.

5 hours ago, cedel said:

A high /strong THB + a law to tax foreigners living in Thailand more than 6 months per year (also probably not only on remittances but on their WORLDWIDE total income) and you will have less and less retired expats in Thailand, they will be moving to Malaysia, The Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia or simply go back to their home country for good! 

I genuinely don't think the Thai authorities would be particularly bothered by that considering the current financial criteria for retirement visas/extensions. They haven't raised the 800K THB for over 15 years even though both inflation, exchange rates with the baht and living costs have soared. They'd be quietly satisfied with a natural decline in numbers brought on by lack of funds.

At the end of the day, retirees aren't the golden goose they've told themselves they are.
They're not a central pillar of the Thai economy by any stretch of the imagination. 

If the strengthening baht does affect tourism, it'll mostly be that from western countries and, frankly, the Thais seem to care more about visitors from this part of the world . . . India, China, Malaysia etc. They don't seem to complain anywhere near as much as farangs

43 minutes ago, Pouatchee said:

 

foul mouth again... the best sign of someone bowing out with no defense. maybe you need to stop your steroid treatment... i hear roids make people angry... on the other hand you seem to need a crutch to help you compensate. i guess people with no bullocks need it

btw, i doubt anyone listens to tour gibberish advice on FX

You're the one who seems angry, unable to move on from a two month-old conversation about exchange rates.
Pure beta male vibes

2 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Western currency losses are due to Japan raising interest rates.

 

Previously with Japan charging under 3%, the big big boys were borrowing billions of Yen at 0-3% then buying western currencies to short term invest at 5-7%. This devalues the Yen and boosts the price of the western currencies. Then Japan raised their interest rates, so they sell their western investments, sell the western currency and buy Yen. Cashing in their profits and reversing the flow.

 

Nobody in their right mind borrows money to invest in Thailand. So the Baht is not affected by this seesaw of buying and selling.

The yen carry trade unwinds pretty regularly whenever the BoJ wades into the market to tinker with it . . . Western currencies have remained steady.
It is the prospect of falling interest rates in USA, EU, UK etc that is weakening them now, not the unwinding of the carry trade.

2 minutes ago, John Drake said:

 

Some things do smell fishy. The US economy may carry debt, but it is the strongest recovering major economy since Covid. And much stronger than Thailand, which also has just announced trillions in infrastructure projects and is still promising 10,000 cash for the digital wallet. Plus the Shins intend to get their people to bust the interest rate at the Bank of Thailand back to much lower levels. Whose economy would you rather have, the US or Thailand's? That's why the baht strength seems scammy.

The baht isn't "strong"
The dollar is weak.
So are the currencies of countries that are embarking on a new rate-cutting cycle including the UK and the EU bloc.

The only scam here is that western currencies are taking as long as they are to weaken.
People living here on modest fixed income denominated in USD/GBP/EUR/AUD/CAD etc may have had a great time during the "good old days" of silly exchange rates but that party is over for all but those with larger pensions or stipends.

The authorities here could soon raise the financial criteria for retirement. It's been 800k for 15 years plus and, in the meantime, western money, with the exception of the USD, has weakened significantly while prices of goods and services have risen. More older westerners are getting ill without insurance and the Thais don't want to stretch their resources.

When they pull the trigger, a lot of retirees will be going elsewhere.
 

2 minutes ago, Pouatchee said:

 

laughing and mocking are pretty close to being a synonym and you were mocking me for being concerned about the value of the bht not to long ago. 

do I need to find the post? I don't think you would have many friends here if they actually knew what you think.

 

https://aseannow.com/topic/1333360-house-approves-122-billion-baht-digital-wallet-scheme-budget/#comment-19079386

  

 

right now Pish you have quite a few who are struggling. are you going to bite them too?

 

 

"Friends"??!!

Hahahahaha 
Seriously, you need to get some kind of life away from posting your butthurt on this forum.

I think people already know what I think about finance/economic/trading etc

I think quite a few would share my view on people moving here without first making allowances for fluctuations in exchange rates, especially if they've retired.
 

14 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

Or it could hit 40 for usd. I like my prediction better.

The whole world is diversifying away from the USD. 
It's a peso-in-waiting - 35 trillion dollars of debt can never be repaid, only inflated away and that means a rout in the USD.


 

On 9/16/2024 at 11:52 AM, Pouatchee said:

 

i am sure @BuddyPish will have a good laugh when he sees this. ..

 

i feel for this guy. i feel the pinch too but it was worse 3 years ago... i would get 29.13 bht to the dollar

Still bitching, I see 😄

I'm not laughing at all but I think you should prepare yourself for a return to 28 baht to the USD.

Not a matter of "if" but "when"

22 hours ago, david555 said:

more plunging for the euro..... 36,93 Thb say's google just now for 1 euro

 

those on the monthly transfers for your visa extensions .... check if your exchange rate sum is still enough , as I.O. has no pity if a single baht short ...

Well, the ECB cut interest rates so this was foreseeable.
The problem is, they're only just getting started with the rate cutting cycle so expect more weakness in western currencies going forward.

On 9/10/2024 at 2:19 PM, Cameroni said:

What would you consider a setup, price action after news?

Search Youtube for ICT OTE Optimal Trade Entry.

10 hours ago, swissie said:

I believe it's called timing. What moves the markets? 10 fools meet and 6 of them decide that a sack of potatoes will cost 50% more soon. The beginning of a Bull Market. Or the other way around.

 

Supply and demand, but not necessarily when it comes to "split-second" trading. Or "running the stops"? You?

Nevermind:  I am genuinely interested. An increasing number of people seem to use algorithems, but I never got in contact with a person that actually applies it. So, you are my man.

Or, to make a long story short: How do you personally profit from algorisms in your daily trading?

 

I don't use algorithms in my trading but time is the most important aspect of what I do because the algorithm that moves price does so more noticeably at certain times of the day so I know to go in and look for setups at those times.

 

4 minutes ago, swissie said:

Quote: Running highs and lows and repricing to old inefficiencies.

Not hard to find out where the "buy/sell stops are. Turning every weak breakout into a short term bull/bear trap? Is that it? That would be nothing new.

It's not new but understanding why the market moves to highs/lows in the order it does and at the time it does is what matters.