BuddyPish

Yeah but no one would dare predict 73

The overhang from the Asian financial crisis lasted a lot longer than it should have but those days are over for good. Frankly, you've more chance of seeing 33 baht to a pound than 73. Blame decades of fiscal and monetary profligacy coupled with the sheer stupidity of Brexit.

Not it does NOT. It mean white westerner. Indians are called "kaek"

Air fares are pretty reasonable from India, China, Korea, Japan, the Middle East etc. No sign of a let up in visitors from these countries and you don't hear them whining about exchange rates because they have money

Clueless

True but the migrants buying apartments, houses, cars, bikes etc aren't the ones who are going to be leaving on account of exchange rates. Of course Thailand benefits from having migrants live here but my point is that they're not crucial to the economy.

I genuinely don't think the Thai authorities would be particularly bothered by that considering the current financial criteria for retirement visas/extensions. They haven't raised the 800K THB for over 15 years even though both inflation, exchange rates with the baht and living costs have soared. They'd be quietly satisfied with a natural decline in numbers brought on by lack of funds. At the end of the day, retirees aren't the golden goose they've told themselves they are. They're not a central pillar of the Thai economy by any stretch of the imagination.

If the strengthening baht does affect tourism, it'll mostly be that from western countries and, frankly, the Thais seem to care more about visitors from this part of the world . . . India, China, Malaysia etc. They don't seem to complain anywhere near as much as farangs

You're the one who seems angry, unable to move on from a two month-old conversation about exchange rates. Pure beta male vibes

The yen carry trade unwinds pretty regularly whenever the BoJ wades into the market to tinker with it . . . Western currencies have remained steady. It is the prospect of falling interest rates in USA, EU, UK etc that is weakening them now, not the unwinding of the carry trade.

The baht hasn't been particularly strong for extended periods. It is the currencies of western countries living beyond their means that have weakened against the baht. The dollar gets a temporary pass because it's the global reserve currency for now Sterling has been hid particularly hard but I can't seem to make some of my countrymen here accept that things like the 2008 financial crisis and the Brexit referendum effectively eviscerated the pound. They seem to think the "problem" is on the Thai side when there is irrefutable evidence that it's all been on ours.

The baht isn't "strong" The dollar is weak. So are the currencies of countries that are embarking on a new rate-cutting cycle including the UK and the EU bloc. The only scam here is that western currencies are taking as long as they are to weaken. People living here on modest fixed income denominated in USD/GBP/EUR/AUD/CAD etc may have had a great time during the "good old days" of silly exchange rates but that party is over for all but those with larger pensions or stipends. The authorities here could soon raise the financial criteria for retirement. It's been 800k for 15 years plus and, in the meantime, western money, with the exception of the USD, has weakened significantly while prices of goods and services have risen. More older westerners are getting ill without insurance and the Thais don't want to stretch their resources. When they pull the trigger, a lot of retirees will be going elsewhere.

"Friends"??!! Hahahahaha Seriously, you need to get some kind of life away from posting your butthurt on this forum. I think people already know what I think about finance/economic/trading etc I think quite a few would share my view on people moving here without first making allowances for fluctuations in exchange rates, especially if they've retired.

The whole world is diversifying away from the USD. It's a peso-in-waiting - 35 trillion dollars of debt can never be repaid, only inflated away and that means a rout in the USD.

Maybe it won't go further but at least he'll be able to get benefits and free healthcare

Still bitching, I see 😄 I'm not laughing at all but I think you should prepare yourself for a return to 28 baht to the USD. Not a matter of "if" but "when"

Well, the ECB cut interest rates so this was foreseeable. The problem is, they're only just getting started with the rate cutting cycle so expect more weakness in western currencies going forward.

Search Youtube for ICT OTE Optimal Trade Entry.

I don't use algorithms in my trading but time is the most important aspect of what I do because the algorithm that moves price does so more noticeably at certain times of the day so I know to go in and look for setups at those times.

It's not new but understanding why the market moves to highs/lows in the order it does and at the time it does is what matters.

Precisely, they are not daytraders They don't pay mind to the daily fluctuations like I do . . . but those daily fluctuations are what determine the exchange rate between currencies holidaymakers, expats, exporters, importers and everyone else pay or receive.

That's a reasonable argument but Soros wasn't your run-of-the-mill currency trader. The ERM Norman Lamont was trying to keep sterling in was a construct; it wasn't something related to fundamentals like the UK's GDP or inflation. It's also worth remembering that back then, the Bank of England wasn't independent. At that time, the Chancellor of the Exchequer set interest rates for political reasons as much as for economic ones.

Warren Buffett isn't a "trader". He's a long-term investor. As for your indicators, those things are crutches. They mathematically crunch old data and spit out an overbought or oversold value. Most of the time, they're inaccurate

I trade forex and futures successfully; fundamentals don't figure in my trading and that of many of my peers; well, not in the way you're thinking at any rate. The surges up or down in price that can be seen after high impact news (the "fundamentals") like CPI, NFP, FOMC etc are all caused by manual manipulation of that algorithm by people you'll never see on CNBC or Bloomberg and they move the market to levels where it's advantageous for them to either accumulate new positions or to distribute positions they already hold. Once they're done, the algorithm goes back to doing what it does - running highs and lows and repricing to old inefficiencies. Almost everyone thinks the markets move on news but it's the other way round; the news is fabricated to fit what the market has already done. The news we read the morning after big market moves is just the opinion of well-known talking heads because the public want an explanation. For example, if there's a 600 point plunge in the Dow Jones, people like Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan will opine "It's because investors are worried about the prospect of a recession" or "Speculators trimmed bets on the likelihood of a 50 basis points cut in the Fed Funds rate" but that has nothing to do with it. In actual fact, the market has simply reached a pivotal technical level and repriced aggressively.

I'm not going to argue the point; it's a rabbit hole