saengd

15 minutes ago, Khun Paul said:

Neither it appears is the WHO !

Nonsense, even Iceland it seems is aware.

6 minutes ago, donnacha said:

Okay, let's see.

My bet is that after this government falls and the reporting restrictions are lifted, one of the most bitter grievances to emerge will be that thousands of Thais were sent home to die, all to protect the tourist industry.

 

I think you just over complicated the analysis unnecessarily by trying to justify a conspiracy theory and that's unhelpful. I think you have to look at the problem from a numerical viewpoint rather than anything to do with politics or motivations,.

3 minutes ago, donnacha said:

We did. Seriously, search this forum for "pneumonia", you'll soon find the official figures. There is nothing subtle about this coverup.

I don't believe this, I subscribe to and the evidence supports a mutation. Further confirmation of this is found here: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

Looking at the uptick of cases in Thailand from 28 January to 12 March, a period of over 6 weeks, the numbers went from 0 to about 75.

By contrast, the UK's first case was found on 28 February and from there they grew to over 6.650 by 23 March, less than 4 weeks.

Thailand couldn't possibly have hidden a similar rate of spread, we would all have seen or heard about incidents locally and we didn't.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom

2 minutes ago, donnacha said:

Common sense tells us that Thailand has long been hiding the biggest outbreak in the region.

As a technique, herd immunity only has benefits if, during the first wave, you focus your resources on completely isolating the vulnerable. The idea is to stop it getting to the groups who, if they get sick, will rapidly overwhelm the medical service. The vast majority of people under 60 can catch it and simply have a rough week or two at home.

Once a significant portion of the younger, healthier population have gained immunity, it becomes far harder for the virus to spread, making the second wave far less powerful, and meaning you do not have to isolate the vulnerable quite as much.

If the UK with all of its facilities and tools was unable to prevent the spread of the virus, how exactly did Thailand manage to hide and prevent it for so long?

1 minute ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

This new "Italian" strain, has been identified by who exactly ?? 

As I recall from the article the Italian strain, if that's what we going to call it here, is the one that is ravaging throughout Europe at present, exactly where the mutation occurred is not clear but it it is certainly very clear from the numbers it is not the same one that hit Thailand in the early days. I'll try and dig out the article and post it.

It seems from what I've read that the previous virus was a much milder strain and that we've now acquired the Italian version, I think this may be a whole new ball game.

4 minutes ago, Travelerusa40 said:

Why don't you call it the China Virus. It is the same virus from China that has been spreading all over the world. You cases are climbing because you have not been recording them since January. Trying to shift the focus of China and on to Itally? The only super spreader was the Chinesee lady you arrested last week that was blowing <deleted> out of her noise all over the bus and transport areas. She was infected as hell! China is Thailands friend but Thailand should have stopped it in January yet today they still have flights comming in from China. Whay a bunch of bull <deleted>! You had people from Itally in Thailand who were infected becasue of China and went back home and you are focused on them. Let's be clear it is all over the world and it came from China. China new of this Virus put let everyon loose in China for Chineese New Year. 100,000 of thousand came to Thailand and you have been hiding the number for months. Now everybody nows and Thailand looks real foolish making the statement it is came from Italy. Take some responsiblity and grow up Thailand.!

If you look very closely you will see the virus that was present here in January and February was a much milder version of the mutated one that subsequently struck Italy and that has now been imported back to Thailand. That was why the number of cases and fatalities was so low, it seems the Thai gov. wasn't hiding the dead or the number of ill people, they simply didn't exist, as they didn't in neighboring countries also. But now the Italian virus (not the Chinese virus) is here with a vengeance and we will see Thailand follow the Italian model and lots of people will die, arguing over what we should call the virus seems banal, under the circumstances.

Bloomberg is reporting that 92% of businesses in Beijing and Shanghai are back to normal and Hong Kong is also beginning to get back to work.

Separately, tourist numbers for February were at their lowest level since 2015 which I think was 30 million.

10 minutes ago, Chelseafan said:

I agree and it sounds like they're using a band-aid to keep their heads screwd on

They should be dishing out the foreign reserve now to the poor and needy

 

And after the poor have spent them all on somtam and sangsom, what then!

32 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

right a will or give her financial power of attorney... 

Power of Attorney expires and becomes invalid when the person dies. 

The only way is to write a Thai will and have it witnessed by two people.

I forgot add, importantly to the above.

When foreign owners of Thai government bonds want to sell, even to the BOT, indeed when anyone wants to sell them and go into hard US Dollars instead, that means they have to sell THB and buy USD, That has the effect of strengthening USD (which we have seen) and also of weakening THB...there is therefore a desirable upside to all of this.

Sorry to break up the doom fest but some good news has arisen:

"Signs of China recovery gives Europe some hope of recovery. Proxy indicators tracking the world’s second-largest economy point to a sharp improvement from last month’s nadir, with steel demand and coal consumption recovering back towards normal levels".

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/23/markets-live-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100-latest-updates/

1 hour ago, wwest5829 said:

Was in Marko ab hour ago. I have not seen any Thais being manic ... jai yen, yen

I also expect it won't rain this afternoon. :))

39 minutes ago, billd766 said:

But what will happen if Thailand digs into the foreign reserves and then someone wants his money back in the currency he bought the bonds (ie USD),  and there is not enough currency to pay him? 

 

Because if there isn't, it will go worldwide and EVERY bond holder will want their money back now and where will Thailand be then?

 

Where will the BOT get that 100 billion baht from?

 

The problem as I see it, which isn't very much, is that stock and shares go up and down and the stock is only worth what somebody will pay for it using somebody elses money.

 

IIRC the bonds are underwritten by the government and must be paid on demand at face value plus interest. If they cannot be repaid what happens then?

"But what will happen if Thailand digs into the foreign reserves and then someone wants his money back in the currency he bought the bonds (ie USD),  and there is not enough currency to pay him?"

Thai bonds are redeemable only in Thai Baht, just as the bonds issued by any country can only be redeemed in the currency of that country, Thai bonds cannot be redeemed for any other currency.

"Where will the BOT get that 100 billion baht from?"

Foreign Currency Reserves are held in 24 different currencies, including in Thai Baht. It is not unusual for BOT to conduct market operations involving billions of Baht and the cash to do that is readily available.

"IIRC the bonds are underwritten by the government and must be paid on demand at face value plus interest. If they cannot be repaid what happens then?"

All bonds have an interest (coupon) rate and a maturity date. Bonds typically pay interest twice a year but they may not be redeemed until their maturity date, they can however be sold on the secondary market to other buyers. Maturity dates vary but are typically 30 years hence.

1 hour ago, flare said:

Makro HD had a line of maybe 25 people waiting to get in at 6:00AM this morning, and the parking lot was getting full when I left at 6:40AM.

Oddly, the Makro in Mae Rim was the opposite but the checkout staff said the place start to get really busy around 10am and it goes down hill from there.

2 hours ago, tokyoblond said:

• But surely, that is what is hapening already, so how much good will it do? The only good it will do is keep the money where it always has been in Thailand. None of this is helping the lady selling fried chicken at the roadside, or the souvenir seller who scrapes together a profit each day.

The idea that all businesses should close for 2 weeks (or more), which I totally understand in the current situation, is all fine and dandy if you have 10 million baht in your bank account - let's all have a jolly holiday, eh? But the everyday people (yet again) are the ones that will be financially destroyed by this, not the people/insitutions that can afford to be investing in government bonds. Where is the help for the everyday employee now unemployed, or the small business owner, who now has 0 baht income? Oh, there's nothing left for them.... we spent it all on protecting our bonds.

BOT intends to buy 100 billion Baht of bonds, that's USD 3.2 billion. Foreign currency Reserves are USD 230 billion, I believe that spend leaves ample for the unemployed, if needed. But I think help for the unemployed is the subject of a different OP, as much as you'd like to hijack this one and make it part of the OP! 

2 hours ago, kevin612 said:

The government is helping the rich again and no relief for their people.

You seem not to understand much of what the OP talks about but you're not alone, 95% of posters in thi thread don't understand either!

2 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

Colin understood very well; it is you who does not want to admit that the world stock exchanges are based on wind, money which does not really exist.
It has to stop, that listed companies are listed on their real turnover and especially their profits (before or after taxes, whatever).
Covid-19 was the trigger for the global crisis looming on the horizon for several months.

Not only did Colin not understand but clearly you didn't either, the subject is bonds, not the stock market, if you want to have  chat about equities we can do that somewhere else. 

Yes I can agree with much of that although when you start to trace the problem back to that degree it becomes far too complicated for the average TV Forum member to fully comprehend. Plus there has to be a basic premise that we can hold to be true today and that is that higher grade bonds and sovereigns are about as low risk as you can find in the bond market. If you remove that premise then what's left is that the world has been motoring down a dead end road for decades.

7 minutes ago, colinneil said:

Why not pump all that money into helping people survive this crisis?

Once again its all about money, money markets, not the benefit of the people.

Perhaps if you understood what a liquidity crisis in the bond market really is and what it means you might change your tune:

Investors, governments , companies and individuals buy bonds, particularly government bonds, because they are considered safe plus they pay an income for many years. In a bond liquidity crisis the number of buyers of those bonds starts to dry up, that usually means those investors who try to sell and who want to hold cash (which is less risky) aren't able to, or, because business is bad and they need the money to pay their bills. Those bills might be payrolls, inventory, rent or even bank assets/financing or anything else that keeps businesses running, businesses that employ people.

If the Central Bank doesn't address the liquidity problem in the bond market, the knock on effect on the people would be substantial because businesses would fail, people would become unemployed and the whole economy would be downgraded because the bonds would be seen as less secure. 

1 minute ago, jeffandgop said:

BTW- About 6 months ago I suffered a similar problem...After 3 days of crawling under the house and installing cutoff valves in the plumbing lines feeding the house a pin hole leak to an outdoor shower was finally identified and repaired....I fear that a pin hole leak somewhere in the line is the culprit...

That would be my guess also, especially since you said that turning off the downstream valve cause the problem to go away. Get under that house my lad and start looking, again.

It seems very improbable that the unit would fail in under one year, ours failed after 5 years. Nevertheless, store the idea in the back of your mind and if you can find no other solution or cause, it only takes five minutes to check.