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sscc

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  1. Tariff or no tariff, Trump or no Trump, under no war in Far East Region scenario, China surpassing USA is just a matter of time.
  2. China GDP growth in 2025 first quarter 5.4%, second quarter 5.2% USA GDP growth in 2025 first quarter -0.2%, second quarter to be announced later. If Second quarter is negative then it will be officially Recession underway for USA.
  3. Trump does not know how to end this tariff fiasco. So setting July 7 deadline, re-setting Aug 1 deadline. ( If it was indeed "Liberation", why not go ahead in full steam right from the beginning on April 2, 2025 ? )
  4. Less tourists from China nowadays ? Yes, a lot less. Xi had opinion on Thailand casino plan ? No.
  5. Exodus from UK is real. Exodus from China had been done decades ago, not 2025. Exodus from Thailand ? Not so sure at this stage. After all Thailand issue and situation now is not as desperate as 2020/21 ( international tourism all dead ) and 2012/13 ( edging towards internal civil war )
  6. Not about told or not told. Issue is the young Thai PM not capable learning on the job. Globally Some young and inexperienced can learn and improve while on the job, some cannot.
  7. USD is lacking bounce even with American good news here and there in past 2-3 weeks USD is now slipping against all currencies, expert Japanese Yen. More like USD Vs THB heading to 1: 30, not the other way.
  8. Trump deadline is no deadline. In Jan, Trump set 75-day deadline in April 2025 for TikTok sale or ban, and in April Trump extended and imposed second 75-Day deadline June 2025. On June 19, 2025, Trump changed his second deadline again. Issue of credibility nowadays.
  9. Tourism had fallen, particularly in the past two months. Export had risen, going well this year. No need to be serious about July 9, 2025. Negotiations would keep going further and beyond. Mr. TACO Trade is due to extend 'his deadline' call
  10. Trump team Vs court. During this uncertain period, this could be the situation. 25% on Canada ( before Apr 2 ) 25% on Mexico ( before Apr 2 ) 20% on China ( Before Apr 2 ) Rest of the world --- Zero Negotiations for deal -- the case between USA and Thailand for example ? Hold off for now.
  11. Using figures you listed and let's say 95% of goods sold was imported and only 5% USA home made or grown. As is the current situation, just 10% tariff on all imported goods worldwide except made-in-China, such 10% tariff will push total cost up around 7% and resulting in 4-5% net loss. Well, tariff on made-in-China is 30%, Walmart is due to suffer big loss.
  12. USA reset tariff temporarily from 145 to 10+20 = 30%. The 20% was announced along with 25% added for Mexico and Canada in Feb 2025.. China reset tariff temporarily from 124 to 10%. USA had taken a big step pulling back and reducing 115% ( same to both) while China called this was USA proper policy correction.
  13. De-risking is underway. The World is de-risking from USA. Since April 10/11, 2025, USD is falling rapidly, against AUD, TWD, HKD ( pegged ) etc. Of course USD had been falling against EUR for a while. Even Thailand THB is rising unexpectedly in THB Vs USD.
  14. Prudent Defense Secretary does not talk about USA Defense Dept, classified or unclassified details to wife, brothers, family in ANY form of communication. It is not secure or unsecure communication issue.
  15. In the SIGNAL leak about Yemen 6 weeks ago, Trump of course knew it had been mistakes of some of his subordinates and help all to fend off the attack, and Trump succeeded to secure their jobs And again now ? this defense secretary may fall.
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