KruZik

On 2/22/2020 at 8:34 PM, christophe75 said:

 

Every sane person ask those questions. And i do not have definitive answers.

 

I'm just looking at statistics, and data that are coming up (for instance, today, the chinese media are talking about a man... who was negative for.... 37 days, but was infected).

 

What if this is much more common ? Super long incubation time ? Reminder : first it was 14 days, then 24 then... more ?

 

Again... Wuhan lockdown was on january 23. One month ago.

 

Same with numbers of chinese tourists... I mean.... 11 millions in Thailand in 2019... Just for january 2020 : almost 1 million.

 

South Korea 5,5 millions... Singapore 3,4 millions...

 

Furthermore... Pneumonia. What are the epidemiological studies ? 

 

How do you make the difference between a classic pneumonia and the Wuwflu ? And a regular flu ?

 

How a thai doctor could make the difference ? up country ?

 

And how many people would simply stay home, buying what i call the "candies bags" (you know the small packages they buy on a daily basis... at the local guru local drugsture : 1 pill of antibio, 1 pill of steroid, 1 pill of paracetamol, 1 pill of antihistamine etc. All the colors of the rainbow ! Some people buy only 1 or 2 bags.....)

 

One thing is for sure : they don't look for the virus.

 

South Korea did thousands of tests. Thailand ? We do not know. USA ? A total joke... less than 500. For a country of 327 millions people, with mega urban centers and countless flights with China (and numerous chinese communities).

 

Another proof : it's only yesterday that they said : we are going to look in Thailand for sick people.... without any "travel history"...

 

But wait... it gets better : "Thailand may need to consider screening travellers arriving from Italy for coronavirus following a sharp rise in cases in the European country, health officials said on Saturday."

 

"Fais ce que je dis, pas ce que je fais" : do as I say, not as I do.

 

The same thai authorities who cry a river when Israel dare to close the door to thai visitors...

 

We are looking, in real time, at the total collapse of global tourism.

 

Fini. Over. Vanished. It was there... And 1 month after it's simply gone. It's truely fascinating.

 

Tomorrow Italy, Iran, South Korea. Next week ?

 

I just don't know. All we can do is wait and see what happens and try to take sensible precautions in the meantime..

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Singapore kind of blows your theory away it's got more cases than Hong Kong and it is considerably hotter.

I thought about that and don’t have an immediate answer. Perhaps it more/less humid than here? I imagine the facts, when they are fully known, will reveal a more complex situation than is currently understood. Heck, not even the experts know what’s going on here.

So you're seriously suggesting that this is a cover-up? Where are these potentially thousands of infected people being secreted? Wouldn't it have come out by now? Genuine questions. 

16 minutes ago, christophe75 said:

 

Documented cases prove you wrong.

 

The woman who infected 9 members of her family... during a lunch in Hong Kong ?

 

No link with temperature, or sun, or UV light whatsoever.

 

The "conference" in a luxury hotel in Singapore with a few infected people ? I guess, strong air conditionning inside !

 

The dozen of cases in a church in Singapore ? Or the hundreds in a "cult" in South Korea ? What is out door ?

 

Absolutly not.

 

The "weather" might have a role, but in modern urban environment... I mean it's unlikely.

 

Compare the BTS with a train in Tokyo ? Or Seoul ? Or a cruise ship ? Big difference in temperature ?

 

All those environments have air con.

 

What could make a difference is "superspreader".... 

 

Was Thailand lucky ? Very lucky ? Despite dozen of DIRECT FLIGHTS between Wuhan and Bangkok before the lock down ?

(i counted 3 in DMK and 3 in Suva, per day) ?

 

Well, if you say yes, then you should play... lottery. ????

17 minutes ago, christophe75 said:

 

Documented cases prove you wrong.

 

The woman who infected 9 members of her family... during a lunch in Hong Kong ?

 

No link with temperature, or sun, or UV light whatsoever.

 

The "conference" in a luxury hotel in Singapore with a few infected people ? I guess, strong air conditionning inside !

 

The dozen of cases in a church in Singapore ? Or the hundreds in a "cult" in South Korea ? What is out door ?

 

Absolutly not.

 

The "weather" might have a role, but in modern urban environment... I mean it's unlikely.

 

Compare the BTS with a train in Tokyo ? Or Seoul ? Or a cruise ship ? Big difference in temperature ?

 

All those environments have air con.

 

What could make a difference is "superspreader".... 

 

Was Thailand lucky ? Very lucky ? Despite dozen of DIRECT FLIGHTS between Wuhan and Bangkok before the lock down ?

(i counted 3 in DMK and 3 in Suva, per day) ?

 

Well, if you say yes, then you should play... lottery. ????

The weather in Hong Kong is currently 21 Celsius - significantly colder than here in Thailand. Likewise South Korea - 10 degrees or less. From what I've read, if this novel coronavirus spreads in a similar fashion to influenza - through droplets from an infected person - then colder temperatures favour that kind of transmission. Coronaviruses don't tend to do too well in hot climates. Having said that, MERS spread in very hot countries like Saudi Arabia, so I just don't know.

And I take your point about the air-con. The BTS, malls and other spaces in Bangkok are freezing, so it's possible the disease could spread that way. 

2 hours ago, Vigilante said:

A comforting fact

All flu viruses hate hot weather.

Flu epidemics don't happen in the middle of a hot summer.

Northern latitudes have a few more months to go but we are already there.

 

 

 

 

This is the one explanation for the lack of cases here in Thailand I can think of. I've been trawling the Internet since this started and while I'm no doctor, I can't think of another credible reason for the small number of cases. I realise that some people think there's a cover-up but it could simply be the weather. I hope so. I have a 6 month old baby and I'm starting to get spooked.

18 hours ago, losworld said:

How is that a conspiracy theory lol.  Loosen up.

Because those who are partial to conspiracy theories usually ascribe sinister motives to events - in this case, the static or barely-changing  number of people diagnosed with the virus

3 hours ago, ifmu said:

or reported ???? 

I don't want to go down the conspiracy theory route, but as others have said, it does seem odd that a country with extremely high exposure to potentially infected Chinese travellers has so few confirmed cases. 

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Why can anyone, including any Chinese tourist fly into Thailand, with no restrictions other than those coming from the epicenter, yet a cruise ship without one documented individual case of infection be turned away?

 

Asking for a kind, humanitarian offering from this administration, is like asking Hun Sen to treat his people with kindness, fairness and dignity, or like asking Suu Kyi to be objective about the Rohinga issue. 

Completely agree. It makes no sense, weeks after allowing thousands of Chinese air passengers to arrive without impediment, to refuse the ship permission to dock. It's hard to view this with anything other than cynicism.