I am honestly not sure where TAT gets it's economic data from.
The global economy is in dire straits right now. With the US banking system on the edge of another Global finanial crisis, Commercial real-estate crisis, Regional banking crisis, Deflation threats.
China's economic engine has stopped completely. No new orders are coming in, factories are closing down left and right, Large manufacturers have left the country. Once, the back orders are fulfilled, there won't be enough orders to keep the Chinese economy from a deflating, it's already deflating. China is the canary in the coal mine, if China's economy is suffering from lack of orders (and the trucking, baltic dry index, PMI data all support that thesis), that's because Western Europe and America does not have enough money to place those orders, that should tell you these countries in the West do not have discretionary spending anymore.
Once, the American people's savings are tapped out and that's going to happen very soon as soon as September when Student loan repayments start again, China will have no longer have a economy. This is why China is trying to turn to their local population into consumers.
If you really think about it, the tourism statistics show Russians and Chinese were the highest in terms of tourism for Thailand. Russians because their economy is destroyed, the Russians are fleeing war, Fleeing not travelling for leisure and their Ruble has been decimated. The Chinese travelled to Thailand because they were cooped up in a cage for 3 years, had good savings. However, the Chinese real estate crisis, lack of jobs will eventually tap into those savings and when that runs out, there won't be much tourism going on.
This goes for Americans as well. When the American's savings are tapped out and by December at the latest, if the retail numbers don't go up, corporations are going to start laying off. So you got three really huge factors at play here, diminishing savings, Student loan repayment and No discretionary spending, all funds are going to maintaining their mortgage and car loan payments.
I don't see where and how tourism is going to boom late 2023
