Trillian

5 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

Using your figures, assuming tourism was only normal for the first 2 months of this year, and assuming there won't be tourists to count until next year, the loss they are predicting could be optimistic.

I think it would be a mistake to think there will be no tourists this year, it's almost certain there will be and we may all be surprised at just how many.

27 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

The 1.69 trillion THB is an estimated loss, not profit. Approximately USD 53 billion.

 

Working the number back it looks as though USD 53 bill. is about 10% of Thai GDP USD 505 bill.). Tourism is valued at about USD 75 bill. so a loss of two thirds of tourist revenue is forecast. TAT on the other hand forecasts 16 million visitors this year so again, a loss of roughly one third (40 mill.).

It kinda looks as though Kasikorn Research simply extrapolated TAT's figures so I'm not sure it's meanigful.

1 hour ago, scorecard said:

Incoming tourism generates about 20% all funds coming into the Thai economy, a massive slice of these funds come from China.

 

I don't believe the number is as high as that. Exports, including tourism, accounts for about 60% of Thailand's GDP whilst tourism itself is about 20% of the export figure. In total tourism is about 12% of Thai GDP. 

There seems to have been about 12 million Chinese visitors per year to Thailand before the virus began, I think that's about a quarter of all visitors or slightly over. If those things are true and spending is broadly similar, it looks as though Chinese tourism contributes around 3% to Thai GDP, give or take a % or so. 

9 minutes ago, topt said:

 

if you look at the figures in the mentioned reports the value for 2014-2016 was only about $25m - for the 3 years. Even if you doubled it as an annual figure I cannot see it making that much difference to Thailand's exports overall?

I agree, there's something not quite right with the numbers, perhaps a reporting error.

59 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

Booked in October 120 days charge back limit gone ????

Barclaycard accepted my claim for a return air ticket that was purchased five months earlier, the outbound was used at the time of purchase but the return segment was scheduled for late April before it was cancelled by the airline.

3 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

Well lucky you but not my experience I would say at more than 50 attempts to contact by phone and being cut off the phone system is more than useless ????

Why not give the problem to your credit card company, it's one of the main reasons why I use a CC to buy plane tickets.

3 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

I'm also a little puzzled by the fact the govt is talking about issuing new trillion baht worth of bonds (~$31 billion). One begins to wonder what the true state of govt finances are vs stated figures.

If GDP is USD 505 billion, government debt was 41% of GDP, soon to be 52% of GDP with the new bond issuance etc, comparatively very low, especially since less than 4% of it is foreign currency debt and the rest is in Baht.

15 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

Unless I misunderstand something, that looks like a decline against every month in the past year, and actually at an all time low.

 

Strange also that in March, during lockdown the export was at an all time high.

 

Look at the 5 year view, you'll see that the value of exports undulates and varies substantially, almost by quarter year. If you look at April last year it looks like that was a low spot which is just off the chart you posted...it's certainly nothing like an all time low, a 5 year low perhaps.

2 minutes ago, Susco said:

Expanded compared to what?

 

Last year April, I surely don't believe, compared to last month maybe

Last year April - https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

12 minutes ago, Henryford said:

So gold and weapons amount to 15.5% of Thailand's exports !

I seriously doubt it, it's more likely this is a one off otherwise it would show in the export analysis done by independent economics reporting companies. 

1 hour ago, smedly said:

what weapons and who do they export too

 

first time I heard of it

Here's half your answer, it seems there's a market for Thai weapons somewhere.

https://knoema.com/atlas/Thailand/Arms-exports

And the second half of the answer might include Thai proxies perhaps:

https://www.nationthailand.com/opinion/30317394

I came across a KIP calculator (below) which shows the effect of inflation over any past period, it may help put the 8% pa interest rate into perspective. According to the calculator average inflation since 1989 has totalled 18.6% per year, this year alone it has averaged over 6% per MONTH:

https://www.worlddata.info/asia/laos/inflation-rates.php

On 5/22/2020 at 8:57 PM, simon43 said:

I'm confused by your statement.  I live in Laos and exchange my USD monthly income into kip (LAK).  Your link shows that 5 years ago I'd get about 8,000 kip for $1.  Now I get about 9,000 kip for each of my USD.  So I now receive more than 10% kip for my USD than I would 5 years ago.

 

I save that kip in a high interest account, and I'll live in Laos and live off my UK pension and the annual/monthly interest from that kip account.  I won't return to the UK, so have no interest in exchanging my kip into USD or GBP.

 

Where will I lose out?

I didn't say you would lose out, I said there was significant risk. The reason for that is because posters may be attracted by the prospect of 8% interest without realising that the LAK is on a long term weakening trend. If a person intends to convert say USD into KIP, invest it at 8% and then spend it all in-country there isn't really a problem. But if the expectation is to convert foreign currency into LAK, invest at 8% and afterwards to exchange it back into the original currency, that will result in a lower true rate of interest, especially if there are redemption taxes involved, potentially to the point of overall loss.

Having said those things, inflation in Laos is high, 6.14% in March, as result the increase in the number of KIP received in exchange for USD is more than wiped out, over the ten year period you mention you would make a loss.

https://tradingeconomics.com/laos/inflation-cpi

I received an email from BA that my long haul flight was cancelled, but rather than try and get a refund myself I gave the problem to Barclaycard and they took care of the entire process, the money was refunded to my card inside three weeks.

11 hours ago, Pib said:

No, you are thinking "Reverse Repo Rate."   

 

The Repo Rate (which BOT just cut) is where a commercial bank provides a security/collateralto secure overnight, 1 day cash from BOT to meet the commercial bank's cash needs.   It's like putting up some collateral to borrow cheap, short term money from the BOT so the bank can meet it needs such as making loans to it's customers.   

 

Sorry, yes you are right, but since the two rates move in tandem, at the same time, it's difficult to understand the real motive behind the change. Was it as you suggest, to improve lending to customers, or was it intended to stimulate a consumer led recovery by removing the incentive to save, or perhaps it was both. I read somewhere that Thai central bank rates are not allowed by law to go lower than about 0.50%, if that is still the case then we are t the bottom, interest rate wise.

On 5/18/2020 at 7:33 AM, ThailandRyan said:

That is the one thing I can not understand.  My stocks in the US have recovered, and everything is picking back up, so why is the dollars worth dropping.  in 1 month it has dropped almost 1.04 baht from 33.10 to 32.06 as of this morning.  I mean it is not drastic, but why is the baht hanging on so hard if the Thai economy is in tatters and GDP is down, so confused.  

Stock market prices and foreign exchange rates have different drivers, one is driven by earnings potential, the second by economic fundamentals. Your US stocks have recovered because the prospect of a vaccine and the lifting of isolation curbs has become more real, the value of USD has weakened because markets can see US debt piling up - stocks market up, currency down. 

Thailand's situation is almost the opposite of the US, stock prices have not recovered and many companies are languishing in the doldrums but the economic fundamentals remain sound - government debt remains comparatively low, financial reserves are high and because of the prospect of a vaccine and an end to isolation there's a sense of an early recovery in tourism and exports markets, stocks market down, currency up.

On 5/21/2020 at 10:39 AM, Pib said:

Doesn't appear to have had any affect on the exchange rate...in fact, the baht is a little stronger since yesterday. 

 

The rate's cut primary focus was to make it easier for Thai banks to get money from the BOT....the more money Thai banks have cheap access to the more they will continue to loan....and many people are now trying to obtain loans to get thru this COVID period.

The Central Bank rate is the amount of interest that BOT pays Thai banks to deposit their excess funds overnight. Reducing the rate does not make it easier for Thai banks to borrow funds from the central bank, in fact it reduces their income. If Thai banks want to lend more they must first attract new deposits or hope that BOT relaxes the capital adequacy rules which is highly unlikely.

There is significant exchange rate risk in the KIP/USD trade, you may find yourself needing to handover all your interest rate profit and then some, just to get your original investment back.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=LAK&view=5Y