Jump to content

Locked in Ozzie

Member
  • Posts

    18
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by Locked in Ozzie

  1. 15 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

    Samut Sakhon Covid-19 cases shoot up by another 146 

     

    800_3b769701288c4ce.jpg

     

    Another 146 people in Samut Sakhon province have tested positive for Covid-19.

     

    Provincial vice governor Surasak Phonyangsong revealed the latest information at 2pm on Sunday.

     

    The total number of those infected in the latest outbreak in the province has risen to 694.

     

    He added that more than 90 per cent of patients were migrant workers linked to the Mahachai Market.

     

    Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30399912?utm_source=category&utm_medium=internal_referral

     

     

    nation.jpg

    -- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-12-20
     

     

     

     

    People are going to start dying from this.

     

  2. On 9/8/2020 at 10:17 AM, Walker88 said:

    If I was the Economics or Finance Minister of Thailand I would have trouble sleeping at night.

     

    In my mind would be graphs of the rise in debt---corporate and household---over the last ten years, bank exposure, and the likelihood that asset prices (otherwise known as collateral for all those bank loans) are under pressure.

     

    In Bangkok one can see billboards advertising 50% price cuts on under-construction condos by major developers. Not good. Real estate prices are set on the margin, which means prices are set by the weakest hands, which is to say those with the most leverage. Those with less leverage (if these aren't unicorns) are still going to feel it, because real estate is a wasting asset. Even if one is debt free, there are still property taxes and maintenance costs, so a building with no tenant or one in arrears still has a cash outflow.

     

    Leveraged owners with no tenants (businesses gone bust) will be turning the keys over to banks, and banks are not going to want to own a huge portfolio of real estate. They will want to sell it.

     

    The govt had introduced debt amnesty, but that has expired. The debt didn't go away, of course, but borrowers were allowed to skip payments and banks did not have to account for the lack of incoming debt servicing. Yesterday an official said it might be time to put this debt moratorium back on, which is to say, "Let's kick the can down the road again, because there is no other way to deal with it".

     

    I have seen some commentary that 'this isn't as bad as 1997'. I question that, as it is not only an entirely different problem, it is also worldwide, not just regional like 1997. Yes, there are likely to be bargains galore in property, but timing will be critical. Buying something down 50% looks good until its price is down 75%.

     

    Thailand does have a decent pile of foreign reserves. I suspect it is going to have to go to that well, and soon, if it insists on maintaining the same level of vigilance against the virus by keeping the borders closed. Absent some return to normalcy, the banking system's capital cushion is going to be under pressure in the next few months as more businesses fail and leveraged borrowers---even homeowners who put zero down on that new car---feel the pain of economic decline. Banks are increasingly likely to need some sort of bailout. Accounting rules can be changed, by mathematics is the Sword of Damocles that cannot be denied.

     

    This article is about Pattaya, because the pain hits it first and hardest owing to its dependence on foreign tourism. The wider Thai economy is hardly any more immune to Covid-driven decline. Some truly difficult decisions are coming.

    Good article well written and I totally agree with your thoughts. My fear is that as I read the other day people will just give up and resort to crime and violence as they believe there is no other way. My long term goals re my lady and Thailand are changing due to the likely moral and economic collapse. She runs a small business and is now fearful for her own safety.

×
×
  • Create New...