meltonpie

6 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

The reason is that there are a large amount of people vaccinated, not because it is summer and infections have a history of falling.  Covid still is running rampant, especially the Delta variant. So lets try again

Which is precisely what I said.

Need to give your glasses a clean? ????

1 hour ago, Kadilo said:

Can you explain  why Delta is the only variant in the UK and the numbers of infections and deaths are still falling?

Whilst things are not “back to normal” generally most of UK is open again now.

Numbers of infections in UK have been rising as a result of the reopening but now seem to have plateaued again.

Numbers of hospital admissions and deaths as a proportion of new infections are much lower than previous waves.

The reason is simple and easily explained:

It is summer and infections have a history of falling at this time and probably more importantly so  far, more than 46.8 million people have had a first vaccine dose - nearly 90% of the adult population - and more than 38 million - over 70% of adults - have had both doses. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

The more advanced countries in the world are reaching a point where they no longer require a mass vaccination roll out - not to the degree that they've been doing it for the first half of the year.

 

So there will be a massive surplus of vaccines still being manufactured in Europe and the US which are suddenly available for export.

 

This is what they've been waiting for, the lines are long to get your hands on this 'surplus' and it will likely take years to get it out to everybody.

 

If I had to guess, and I do then I suspect that it will be supplied to those who can demonstrate that they can efficiently and effectively distribute the vaccine once it's delivered. There will be countries who haven't got any vaccination infrastructure in place yet - these will get it last.

The more advanced countries will be seriously weighing up the options of a third dose.

Economics will be to the fore here.

Cost of a third shot to an entire population which enables an economy to function normally will be money well spent.

I'd expect US, UK and Europe to be lining up third doses now, though not broadcasting the fact too much, whilst being seen to be "generously" donating stock to other parts of the world.

When the buttons get pressed, everyone else will have to wait.

https://nypost.com/2021/07/28/pfizer-says-third-dose-increases-delta-variant-protection/

5 hours ago, Marcous said:

Just a rough chart I made showing the current trajectory. The number of cases doubles on about 

 the 18th of next month.

It's not very accurate and shouldn't be taken too seriously.

 

 

I've posted this before, but here is an interesting calculator if anyone wants to spend a few minutes dabbling.

Its easy to use and quite intuitive, so you will quickly get the hang of it

https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

6 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The high number of discharges allowed more admissions, which allows for a higher number of reported new cases.

 

The key number is net admissions, how many additional patients were squeezed into the hospital system after accounting for discharges.

Didn’t I read that they aren’t admitting all positives now and that some with no symptoms were sent away to self isolate?

maybe I got that wrong, but if it’s true then clearly new admissions isn’t a key number at all.

Even the number testing positive isn’t the key number because everyone knows not enough testing is done.

No one knows what the two key numbers are, namely, how many people in Thailand are infected now and was is the rate of infection.

Next milestone is 20,000 per day and that will be along quickly if the testing by army personnel are additional tests.

6 hours ago, jacko45k said:

The sandboxes down south are a farcical sideshow in the midst of events central to Thailand.

Sandboxes will become wooden boxes in just a month 

Very sadly the only type of boxes that people will be talking about in September and October will be wooden ones.

5 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Getting back to reality, no one was saying here “cases may be flat now, in May, but the Delta variant is coming in June, and then cases will skyrocket”.

 

Do you have any insight into when the Epsilon variant is coming and it’s impact?

Here is a good insight for you, and answers a question you posed a few days ago.

Today is a good day to go shopping and buy a couple of months worth of non perishable items

26 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The number of reported hospital walk-in cases is predictive of near term future case numbers. That will be true until hospital capacity is truly maxed out. 

What is the true hospital capacity?

5 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

As I have said many times, there isn’t enough testing, the real numbers are higher, anything more I need to repeat?

You also said many times that more testing wasn’t required, and that it wouldn’t necessarily reveal more cases. Particularly in Chonburi.

Although you do now appear to have revised your opinion about that

5 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

If you assume that the number of admissions is accurate (to the extent that beds are available), then that number in itself is useful in understanding the progress of the epidemic. If, for example, the number dropped dramatically for a sustained period, you would know the epidemic is lessening.

 

Currently, the number of available beds is limited to those available due to discharges and newly opened beds. If admissions fill those slots, then we know total case numbers are probably limited by available beds, and the real numbers would be higher.

If the number of hospital beds is fixed, and they are filled every day, the number tells you nothing about the spread

5 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Do you think that hospital admissions numbers have no relationship with reality?

 

or, are they just an artifact?

Enough of the ridiculous artefact word.

As for your reasonable question about stocking up, it seems quite sensible, if you have the space and money, to stock up with non perishable items, especially if you have not been vaccinated.

it seems more likely that things will get worse before they get better.

Given your circumstances, if you are fully vaccinated, you might turn your attention to how you could volunteer to help if things get really nasty.

6 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

I didn’t admit I was wrong. 
 

There are some days where there are spikes because the labs process a backlog of cases. You can tell because a higher percentage of new cases are from lab tests and not hospital admissions.

 

More to the point, it is much more useful to try to understand the progress of the epidemic than to try to make debating points on an Internet forum. At this point, simply repeating that the government is not handling this well, and that the epidemic is going to get worse is not useful. What is useful is monitoring the progress to see if it is time to stock up on supplies for a couple of weeks, or leave the country, or head for the hills.

You aren’t required to admit anything

Its plain for all to see.

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Fine. If you want to pretend that there will be zero beds available for the 6,000 new cases tomorrow, up to you.

 

But, in Real Life, there will be about 3,000 beds available in what will be a bit of a scramble.

 

For the nitpickers, I am not stating that 6,000 new cases and 3,000 discharges tomorrow are a certainty, it’s just an estimate.

It seems you are nit picking now

if tomorrow 3000 get discharge at 7am prompt and new arrivals don’t start until 7.01 there will be enough beds for numbers 1 - 3,000.

For 3,001 - 6,000 there will be no beds available.

They form an orderly queue and the next day they occupy the space created by that days departures thus meaning there are no beds available for the next 6,000 new arrivals etc etc

Question is - if they have 3,000 more cases per day than beds, where are they all going?

43 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

If the clusters are sealed, how did they find 100 cases in the clusters? 

Duh.

The concept has always been that the clusters have a semi permeable membrane.

Wherever they occur the virus can get in, but it can’t get out..

Its a wonder of the universe and only happens in Thailand

lol

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

4412 hospital walk-in cases, they really crammed them in yesterday. Of course, this is a national number, so not all of the admissions were to hospitals in Bangkok.

 

This indicates even higher number of new cases in the next few days.

But given where Thailand is at, and the limits on vaccines, and testing, and what appears to be a desire to open up rather than close down higher numbers are easy to forecast for the next few days, weeks and months.

We can only hope that the situation does not mirror countries like Brazil but hope is the only thing there is, and a lack of tangible action will only encourage  spread.

These numbers are still low (compared to many other countries) but the notion that Thailand has some kind of immunity is now dismissed. 
Because the numbers have been low it’s been easy to comment and inject some dark humour at times amongst posters.

Sadly it seems probable that those days are passing and that the situation is becoming uncontrollably serious.

The grim reality is that true disaster could be looming. 
We should be prepared for some very dark times not seen in Thailand previously during this pandemic.

4 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The point of looking at the official numbers is that some official data is instructive in knowing the future short term development of the epidemic.

I don't disagree with this, other than the official data doesn't help you "know" the future short term development, it helps you "form an opinion".

Unfortunately recent opinions expressed by many have proven to be hopelessly inaccurate, as you know better than anyone.

It would also, of course, help everyone form a better opinion if the official figures bore any resemblance to reality.

34 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

“the UK with an almost fully vaccinated population just posted 20K+ infections in one day...”

44 million who have had at least one vaccination is not the same as “almost fully vaccinated “, given the UK’s 70 million inhabitants.

 

Do you disagree?

UK adult population around 52.3 million

Around 85% of these have had first jab

around 62% second jab, so more realistic to say 62% fully vaccinated

rollout to teenagers is expected to happen

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

In late April and early May, daily numbers were declining.

 

Now, daily numbers are increasing.

 

I wouldn’t think that this is a hard concept to grasp.

In both cases you mean the reported daily numbers?

The daily numbers are influenced to a degree by the amount of testing and it’s pleasing that you now appear to be the most vociferous advocate for more testing to be carried out.