meltonpie

32 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

National and local testing is showing that the number of new infections is stable. But, it’s possible that there is a pocket or two that could cause future problems.

More so it shows that the amount of testing is stable.

If 5% of the number of people tested in Bangkok are positive its one thing.  If at the same time 5% of those tested in Con Buri are positive, that's two things, Chaing Mai three things etc etc.  Then you bolt on an R rate above 1 and you potentially have serious problems.

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

A randomized survey of 2400 tests in one day is sufficient to determine positivity rate, if conducted in a limited area, like Chonburi.

 

But, I'll bite: what level of testing in Chonburi do you think is sufficient?

Further to my previous reply this chart shows the number of lateral flow tests being carried out daily in England (56 million population)

12 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

A randomized survey of 2400 tests in one day is sufficient to determine positivity rate, if conducted in a limited area, like Chonburi.

 

But, I'll bite: what level of testing in Chonburi do you think is sufficient?

I don't profess to be an epidemiologist, so I can't provide a robust scientific answer for you.

But anecdotally I can say that in the UK when they have cases of new variants pop up - most recently for the South African or Brazilian variants - the aim is to surge test an area by encouraging everyone within the area to take a test within 2 weeks.

So if Pattaya has a population of 105,000 I guess 7,500 tests per day for 2 weeks would do it.

If Thailand could be bothered to at least try it once it would provide more robust data for everyone, and if it were proven that cases are very low I would be delighted.

My concern is that if nothing else, this phase shows that the virus can and does spread within Thailand and that Thai people can catch it.  Something that has always appeared to be discounted previously.

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

May 2: new infections in Chonburi down to 89.

 

It looks like about 2400 lab tests for random people yesterday, probably a positivity rate below 5%.

I shouldn't raise your hopes too high on the back of those figures.

A continued pathetically low amount of testing will be skewed by people with no symptoms keen to prove they don't have it, rather than those with symptoms keen to get shipped off somewhere for 14 days.

Thailand should at least choose one place to carry out comprehensive surge testing on a large scale, if only to allay concerns and prove, as you hope, that the infection rate is lowish.

But we know that that will not happen.....at least not yet.

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

Plenty of discussion about this earlier in the thread. 

I'm not clear what point you are trying to make.

If the testing figures I quoted are interpreted as the number of new tests completed daily, whether it is actual total tests or tests of new people it is utterly lame.

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Individuals, not total tests. 

 

says who?

and whats your point?

They only test that many new individuals per day with a population of 70 million.  So less than 0.02% new people tested per day?

59 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Thailand conducts about 50,000 tests a day. The number of individuals tested is somewhat less than 20,000, per your chart.

 

The question on the table was how many tests were conducted, not how many individuals were tested.

Do you have a source for that please?

I look at: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php  and total number of laboratory tests completed.

If you took 27th April and deduct figures from 26th April the difference is 18,054.

I had assumed that this was the number of tests?

2 hours ago, Guderian said:

The devil is in the detail of the number of tests being carried out. For example, Chonburi today reported its second-highest number of new cases with 151, but says that the rise was driven by increased community  testing.

This.

53 minutes ago, ChipButty said:

I saw in Phuket just over 300 cases but it didn't mention any deaths 

The next frontier for many will sadly be the final frontier.

1 hour ago, rabas said:

Do you have a reference for that? I would like to look it up.

Just data from worldometer

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

(edit - if you meant the data for the person from China, I don't have the data, but read it this morning in one of the news feeds detailing where the new quarantine cases had traveled from)

Just maybe Thailands fortunes are really changing for the better?

One of the new  "imported" cases in quarantine is from China it seems.

China who with a population of 1,439,323,776 reports on average just ten new cases per day.

There is more chance of winning the lottery.

7 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

In terms of the rate of new cases per day increasing - the recent rapid growth in India has seen the increase in new daily cases move from around 22 per million to 204 per million in 34 days.

Thailand has a rate around 22 per million now, so it is quite easy to believe there could be 15000 new cases per day in Thailand a month from now. 

Just to add a further note to my own post - the UK topped out at around 881 new cases per million per day around 10th January.  If it reached that kind of level in Thailand you would be looking at around 62,000 new cases per day!

In terms of the rate of new cases per day increasing - the recent rapid growth in India has seen the increase in new daily cases move from around 22 per million to 204 per million in 34 days.

Thailand has a rate around 22 per million now, so it is quite easy to believe there could be 15000 new cases per day in Thailand a month from now. 

Given what happened on USS Theodore Roosevelt,  USS Kidd, USS Michael Murphy and others, and the fact that numbers are rising in Thailand this obviously isn't going to happen.  If it did and they rock up and find everything closed they are going to be very disappointed.

6 hours ago, klauskunkel said:

That's 1 million silent killers, … you will have to continually rotate your head when walking anywhere.

And invisible in the dark if my experiences in China are anything to go by.  Turn off the lights to save battery!

2 hours ago, possum1931 said:

I wonder what the ratio of murders is between Thailand and the UK, countries with a similar population.

I may be wrong but I would suspect there are far more in the UK.

Then you might be surprised:

https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/Thailand/United-Kingdom/Crime

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

Oi, I'm currently covid stuck in that pithole ! A year of fat women, weedheads, drunks, dog faeces, empty beer cans, fag ends, Cavemen IQ, refuse, thefts, beggars, urine smelling buildings and promenade, violence, Family day trippers to cash converters, McD wrapper snowfall.....................

.........and you.

5 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Actually Thailand's official policy is to test symptomatic cases and have on numerous occasions said that mass testing costs too much money so they don't actively seek asymptomatic carriers as you suggest.If you check testing stats you will see that Thailand has rather low testing rates.Here are the current testing rates per million of population, US 1646,UK 1842 and Thailand 385.

I'm not sure how to interpret the figures you quote.

According to Worldometer today - since the start of the pandemic the testing rates per million are now  UK 1,512,475 (yes that's one and a half million per million) and Thailand is 22,896.

UK has capacity to do more than 800,000 tests per day currently.

16 hours ago, Natai Beach said:

 

................ For years Thailand had the fastest growing economy in the world.

 

I'm afraid that is utter nonsense. Well.....certainly in the past 60 years

And compared to other east Asian countries: