The Cipher

Nobody? It actually is possible to not be negative about every single thing related to Thailand, you know. However if you do happen to know where I can receive sponsorship for my posts feel free to direct me that way ????.

But that's not true tho. Based on the text in the original article, groups 3-4 definitely have a path to this visa for materially zero outlay. Group 2 might also have a path for zero investment, but the text is less clear. I agree that in general a passport is the gold star, but 10 years for minimal cost is pretty darn good. Adding to that, every country at your Golden Visas link is outside Asia, which is fairly significant. --- As a general statement just reading the negative responses on this thread it's obvious that a lot of the pessimists don't understand how capital and/or talent will evaluate these options, or they are just finding reasons to vocalize that they want the program to fail.

You guys are focusing on semantics too much. Replace 'digital nomad' with 'remote worker' and you may start to see the appeal. There are a lot of newly remote professionals due to Covid. And a lot of what Thailand has to offer is appealing to them, believe it or not. And I think I would know lol - I'm one of them, as are many of my friends. To address some of your points so that you know how people will evaluate these: Nothing in the known text stipulates a minimum amount of time that needs to be spent in Thailand. It's basically a free pass to come and go as you please. Effectively it turns Thailand into a regional base with extremely minimal required commitment on behalf of the visa holder (Group 3 applicants); Groups 2-4 don't actually seem to require a land purchase or any investment in the country. Not 100% sure about this for Group 2 (the 'or $80,000' line is a bit unclear). But anyway, unlike the Elite visa these can be picked up for virtually zero liability. At worst you turn cash into some other asset on the balance sheet; 17% flat tax is attractive. I could see some people changing their tax residences to take advantage of the offer, particularly given the low qualifying requirements relative to other lower-tax jurisdictions. I'm reasonably sure some bright people will actually find a way to declare tax residence in Thailand while earning abroad and end up paying effectively 0% income tax. Please message me if you figure out how to do this; For HNWI looking to diversity RE holdings, the visa rights allow them market access while basically providing an additional residence perk for something they wanted to do anyway. --- Now that I've typed this I sorta want to delete before posting lest the authorities read it and decide they were too generous with the terms lmao. But otoh it might be educational for this audience so I'll post and hope for the best.

I closed this thread but reopened it just to say that the more I think about it, the more I think that these visas are a good deal. Groups 2 and 3 especially seem to offer great value. Group 1's not bad either. If you guys genuinely don't think that there will be takers for these, I kinda think you just might not be the target demographic. Based on what's been revealed so far, these are pretty attractive.

You know based on the criteria outlined in the article, this looks like a pretty good visa option. 10 year validity with no annoying reporting and revenue outside Thailand exempted from taxation? Nice! I really think I'll apply for this. I still think that letting foreigners own land is a mistake, but if they insist then I guess it would be a shame not to oblige them.

Want to spur auto sales? Remove the import taxes and duties on foreign-made autos. At least one additional person would transact if that happened (and it would be me ????).

You're right. If I had any point at all, it was to show the degree to which we've overreacted (surgery on a paper cut). However I don't expect a lot of things to go back to the way they were, although I do expect the travel situation and prices to eventually normalize. For better or worse post-Covid will be different than pre-Covid in a lot of ways, I agree.

Duration of Spanish Flu in years: Approximately 2 years. (1918-1920) Number of Spanish Flu deaths: 50 million (using OP's number, no fact check) World Population 1920: Approximately 1.9B. (UN Estimate) Percentage of Global Pop Killed: ~2.6%. --- Duration of Covid-19 Pandemic in years: Approximately 2 years (2020-2022) Number of Covid-19 deaths: 4.55 million (number on Google as of today) World Population 2021: Approximately 7.8B. Percentage of Global Pop killed: ~0.06% --- Math is math. ????‍♂️

So kinda pretty much exactly the same as now, except you would also take a pill for some reason. Just kidding-ish. A genuine cure for Covid would be a positive development.

I don't hate the American government. I don't hate the Chinese government either. They're just playing the game. If they don't play it someone else will, I guess. But you raise a good point that it isn't fair to blame a government's actions on its citizens. The average American isn't responsible for US adventuring in the Middle East any more than the average Chinese person is responsible for China's actions in the South China Sea. And it's important to remember that. For better or worse, most of us are just along for the ride.

(Most) countries don't think in terms of good and evil. And certainly not the great power countries of the world. They think in terms of national interest and then do what it takes to advance those goals. As you've correctly said the US throughout history has certainly been no saint. But they've done a great job at controlling the narrative (Hollywood + ubiquitousness of American news outlets worldwide) and have successfully created an American mythos that a lot of people have bought into.

The amount of xenophobia on this forum is simultaneously amusing, mind-boggling, and concerning. Hanging around here, I've learned that 'The Chinese' are one of several board bogeymen along with others like 'The Hi-So' and 'The Generals' whose shady machinations are behind every dastardly plot. But in seriousness, I just kind of assume it's how some older people try and make sense of a world that's rapidly changing around them. Even I'm having more difficulty wrapping my head around the world these days, so I'm not surprised that others struggle and then fall back on comfortable biases.

It's an interesting dilemma. Chinese capital - and foreign capital in general - has distorted residential real estate markets in various cities. Speaking from the experience of my hometown in Vancouver, Canada - the influx of Asian money from the mid 1990s onwards has had mixed effects. On one hand, it did bring a ton of talent and capital to what had been a pretty sleepy city. It also created a class of new millionaires out of locals who benefited from capital appreciation through no skill or effort of their own - they just happened to own a hot asset before it got hot. Asian capital built Vancouver, best believe. (Don't @ me. It's true.) And in that way it's been a positive for the city. However, a couple of decades on and prices have been bid up to the point where they are very detached from local incomes - particularly for properties with land. Housing is extremely expensive and is a struggle to afford, or completely out of reach, of a ton of the population. Particularly the younger generations. The result? Higher inequality, a feeling of disenfranchisement, and simmering social unrest. Big negative for the city and a very difficult problem to solve now that it's been created. Wealth levels in Thailand are already low and inequality is high, so if prices do trend upwards with deregulation, major landholders are gonna do great but a lot of people will suffer from the resulting lack of affordability. Generally a bad idea.

No idea. I just see that the government is interested in attracting talent/capital and that the forum consensus - which I disagree with - seems to be that nobody of talent or means would ever come to Thailand. But every single person I know worth $10M or more (I work in an industry where I have to meet these guys) that has relocated either themselves or their businesses in the past five years has done so specifically to decrease tax burden. Would the government be right to offer the tax incentive? Maybe, maybe not. But if it was offered, I bet some bigger fish would come.

Yeah, you're absolutely right. My comment was tongue in cheek, but the censorship of '????ffing' made it sound more serious than how I meant it. I just take the tax as motivation to get my net worth high enough that the tax irrelevant. "฿18M for an AMG GT? Whatevs."

An interesting paradox of the average person that I've noticed is that when observing a task like remodeling a kitchen or fixing a car, most people are aware of their limitations and refrain from offering unqualified opinions or advice. But when it comes to the topics of global finance, geopolitics, and macroeconomic linkages, those same people - many of whom can barely manage their own households - suddenly turn into experts. Multiple lessons in there.

Some interesting financial advice here. Not sure what could possibly go wrong. And do you uh, live on this bum cloth? And if so, why?

My hypothesis is that this board, in general, is a refuge for older people who increasingly feel out of touch with Thailand and the wider world, but nevertheless are sensitive that they've lost standing in each of them. And so it's easy to go onto the internet to vent, or be belittling or petty, because just for that instant it restores a sense of status that otherwise felt lost. Or maybe I'm just reading too much into it.

I came in December of 2020 and began to build out a second-home in Bangkok. Had lived/worked in various Asian cities in the past. I chose Bangkok because it has grown into a developed enough metropolis to have the amenities and offerings that I want, and the value proposition - my lifestyle per dollar spent - was really good. It's also a central hub to places that I want to visit often and/or explore. Four hours or less flying to Southeast Asia and Taiwan/Hong Kong, and under six hours to Korea/Japan. I also appreciate that I'm more free to just be myself here than in Canada - my other home - where folks are always subtly trying to enforce 'Canadian values.' One of the interesting things I've noticed from spending some time on this board is that some of the things that attracted me to the city are the same things longtime residents dislike. I haven't quite worked through the implications of that observation, but there might be an interesting takeaway there. I'm also frequently surprised to see comments about Bangkok becoming expensive, when I still see it as very good value relative to what else is out there in the world. This is bang on tho. The <deleted> import tax is some bs. If you want to protect your domestic industry like, ok, but then could you at least build something domestically that isn't a lame econobox or pickup truck?

Real talk, the USA itself isn't ready for democracy ????. Not just an American problem tho, it's a failing system in a lot of places these days.

Want to attract talented and/or well-to-do foreigners? 0% tax rate on all income and capital gains. Personal or corporate. Bam - solved ur problem. ✌️

Yes, that's my point. As we've seen elsewhere - if gov were to just throw open the gates, a flood of new capital would move prices out of reach of many locals and, bluntly, out of reach of many of the foreign retirees also. You could end up with a system where real estate assets trade based on factors that aren't related to the earning power of locals, and would have basically priced your own population out of the market. Probably not ideal.

I'm not sure how much this would help, really. Especially in Bangkok. There's still considerable risk that international capital would immediately bid up prime lots in central Bangkok, which would then have knock-on effects on the rest of the metropolitan area. Unless they desperately need to raise cash quick, I don't see why the gov would do this. A disjunction in housing prices from income levels is not worth the risk.

Well you know, except the countries contain cities like Hong Kong, London, Vancouver, Sydney, Toronto, Auckland... This needs to be handled with great care if it's allowed to move forward at all. I realize that the ability to own the land they live on is appealing to certain types of foreigner who have made lives in the country, but freely throwing open the gates to international capital would probably be a serious mistake. You'd be introducing sharks into a pond of minnows, and most ordinary Thais - and long-stay foreigners as well - could feel wide-reaching negative consequences from that.

How would you advance that agenda? I think education reform is needed and a very noble goal, but it's such a monumental task. I'm not even sure the government would know how to go about it if they ever really wanted to - plenty of Western systems have already failed at overhauling education for the modern world.