ChC1
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Translate: If you don't want to come to Thailand, you do not need to get the damn Thailand Pass.
Simples. The choice is so obvious.
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You give these low level bureaucrats a taste of power and control, they will want more and more, longer and longer and eventually become corrupted with the precious ring of control. Covid brought the worst out from the people in government and agencies. Especially in some East and Southeast Asian countries where true democracy does not exist, the ring of power brought the most irrational and controlling bureaucratic behaviour of all. It is really disgusting to witness such addiction on power and control. I really suggest people do not visit Thailand at all if you can avoid. Feed on those bureaucrats' greed for more control and more power will cause long term damage to everyone who loves (or used to love) Thailand.
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The worst problem is not fishery. Rather, it is when massive ocean water went upstream because there is less water went downstream from the dam or while building the dam, which can cause permanent damage to the soil in the Mekong Delta region. That could cause a range of problem like high salt content in soil (aka alkali soil) which can not grow anything to small patch of farm land becomes desert eventually. Thailand needs to think twice in kissing CCP's bum. CCP is robbing you left and right and some Thai still prefers CCP as their masters. Mind boggling.
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First, China has to be a super power to make this statement valid.
So is China a super power?
Economically, its GDP is second the the world. Impressive, until you divided it by per capita. Then we should really squeeze water out of this GDP sponge. We all know China's numbers are hugely inflated, and China lives in debts to expand its GDP by investing in huge infrastructure project. If you take that out, China is no better than an average Eastern European country. Sure, cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai and even Wuhan is impressive. Yet, it is not what China is about. Never to mention the poverty widespread in middle and western provinces. There are large areas in China that is worse than Isan or Laos if you take away the shining government buildings, brand new highways that no cars ran or the railway that average person can not afford a ride on.
Secondly, does number 2 in GDP means super power? We can count UK, Japan, Germany...etc. Those country once as number 2 in GDP terms. Would you call those country super power?
Third, would size determine a country as super power? Brazil, Russia, Indonesia...would you call them super power?
Fourth, would nuclear or military presence determine a country as super power. Look at Russia, massive nuclear reserves. After the blunder in Ukraine and its struggle, would you call Russia a super power today? North Korea throws missiles all the time, do you consider North Korea a super power?
I can go on to list many aspects to question why China is not a super power.
Most importantly. China could not survive should USA go all in on sanctions that seen on Russia recently. Without the access in SWIFT and World Bank/IMF loans, China is effectively another Venezuela on steroid. Sure, China is important on many aspects like natural resources and the sheer power of spending on a collective term.
To make my point, 55 Vietnams combined together will be a super impressive country in GDP terms (and just bigger than China), but each individual Vietnam (sorry Loas and Vietnam) is still poor on average. Without controlling the world's actual economic power (SWIFT, Sanctions, Purchasing power...), China can never be a super power like USA or even UK that is heading the now (almost) defunct Commonwealth. The illusion that China is a super power is over blown. China is a respectful player in regional politics and it has an admirable military presence that its neighbours are only afraid of. NATO is a super power, G7 is a super power, Japan is a almost super power without a big military...Even Russia is still a smallish-super power over its influence over central Asia, and if Russia shuts its energy supply to China it would bankrupt China overnight (exaggerate here but the point is valid).
The choice is very clear for Thailand. Do you want to be friend with the real superpower of the world, or follow the illusions in your head? And I hope sincerely that the Thai elite has better understanding on world order than this article quoted.
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When you starve the tourist number to virtually zero. Any improvement is...err...huge improvement.
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4 hours ago, Sticky Rice Balls said:
I come for the pad thai--I stay for the BS
When you pad enough Thais, you will only be left with peanut granules.
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BKK 1st May international arrivals according to Flightstats:
MS507 CAI
KQ881 CAN
6E77 CCU
***NH8507+LHA...OZ397+BR6077+FD6599... etc are cargo flights, not counted. Other flights like CZ5027 etc are not passenger carry or for sale on public, hence not counted neither.
TG316 DEL
TG971 ZRH
TG935 BRU
TG318 BOM
TG931 CDG
TG326 BLR
TG911 LHR
TG951 CPH
TG338 MAA
QR830 DOH
WY817 MCT
TG921 FRA
UL402 CMB
AF166 CDG
5J929 MNL
EY402 AUH
SQ706 SIN
TR752 SIN
TG332 DEL
CI833 TPE
8M335 RGN
TR624 SIN
VN601 SGN
SQ708 SIN
BR211 TPE
6E 85 DEL
PR730 MNL
WE551 HCM
WE587 PNH
PG932 PNH
TVJ721 PNH
CI831 TPE
EK384 DXB
WE561 HAN
VJC803 SGN
KL803 AMS
QR836 DOH
ET618 ADD
TG404 SIN
LY81 TLV
CX653 HKG
VJC901 HAN
LH772 MUC
TG657 ICN
UK121 DEL (possible Cargo flight)
OS25 VIE
SQ710 SIN
TG601 HKG
TG416 KUL
CI835 TPE
AY143 HEL
TG466 MEL
TG643 NRT
QF23 SYD
TR610 SINUB17 RGN
SV844 JED
BG388 DAC
TG322 DAC
PG934 PNH
SQ712 SIN
TG669 CAN
CX701 HKG
CA621 PVG
AI330 BOM
QR832 DOH
EK372 DXB
SQ714 SIN
BI519 BWN
TG432 DPS
WE581 PNH
3K512 SIN
PG936 PNH
TG665 PVG
WE557 SGN
ZG 51 NRT
WE575 VTE
TG625 MNL
TG410 SIN
WE565 HAN
KL804 MNL
JL707 NRT
TG679 CAN
OZ741 ICN
NH805 NRT
KE651 ICN
EK385 HKG
Total: possible 90*** passenger flights (some of the flights are very questionable, for example, it is yet not possible for Myanmar or Bangladesh has so many passengers to BKK, that is at least 65flights there alone. Also there are at least 6 flights from PNH and 3 flights from MNL, really? Also there are 9 flights from Vietnam, I assume some of those would be cargo only but no way to verify. Also I included TG's and CA's flights from China, but we know with the heavy restrictions these flights are likely to be cargo mostly)
Conclusion: Yes there are about 120 international flights arriving in HKT and BKK on 1st May 2022. However, there are large numbers that going to Phnom Penh, Saigon, Hanoi etc. which I have my doubts on. All China flights and Japan flights are likely to add very little of passenger numbers. The majority of passenger arrives are likely from Singapore and India. Exactly how many flights are cargo flights operated by passenger jets are still unknown (I don't have the time to count).
Hence, 120 flights are correct. The devil is in the details. From my rough calculation based on each country's condition, I would guess only two thirds of the flights are with high passenger load factor. Another one third I would put a question mark (like flights from DAC, RGN, HAN, PHN etc.)
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To settle one of the dispute, I went on flightstats to count the actual arrived international flights on 1st May in HKT and BKK. The result is as below:
HKT Arrivals on 1st May
WE338 BOM (Cargo only)
TG963 ARN
G8 73 DEL
QR842 DOH
G8 21 BOM (G8 41 BLR and G8 71 CCU is indicated cancelled)
SQ726 SIN
KC563 ALA
EY430 AUH
MH786 KUL
SQ728 SIN
TR656 SIN
3K535 SIN
EK378 DXB
6E1763 DEL
AK824 KUL
QR840 DOH
FD377 SIN
TG919 LHR
TG478 SYD
SQ736 SIN
TR652 SIN
SQ740 SIN
QR843 KUL
EK396 DXB
JQ17 MEL
QR841 SIN
FD525 HKG
Total: 26 possible passenger flights.
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10 hours ago, Pmbkk said:What Thailand or China?
Thailand seems to be getting away with it(been saying the same for years and years). China - check your shorts or TV - they're made there - U.S. anti Chinese propaganda.
Sri Lanka - love the place, but a bit of a swerve-ball. Where did that come into anything ?
You need more depth to your "predictions" with reasoning.
I just want to tell you some of my personal experience.
All clothes I buy now in USA are made in Honduras, Bangladesh or Indonesia. The shoes I bought, were made in Vietnam of Malaysia.
The latest TV I bought last year, Samsung 8KUHD TV, was made in Poland.
Taiwanese PC/Electronic supply chain is slowly moving to Vietnam and Cambodia since 2019. Japanese companies are moving back to Japan/Taiwan and Thailand/Malaysia/India. So pretty much soon you can buy PC/electronic equipment that are made in Vietnam/Cambodia/India instead of China.
Sure there are still a lot of stuff you buy is made in China (especially on Amazon). But more and more, I see things sold on the market/store are from other countries. It is a trend started from 6-8 years ago, I started to notice things I buy are slowly made in other countries. Even iPhones, it is expected in few years time they will be made in India.
Also I understand now there is group of consumers are actively avoid things MiC. Manufactures and vendors will provide alternatives when the market is there.
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8 hours ago, Burma Bill said:Not in large numbers but one flight today from China into Phnom Penh (China Southern Airlines):-
2022-04-19 10:20 CZ 8313GUANGZHOU (CAN) ARRIVED10:08
https://pnh.cambodia-airports.aero/en/flight/information-arrivals-and-departures
Looks like Chinese operated Cambodia Call Centers are in need for Mandarin speaking scammers badly. Or are they the gamblers heading for the Chinese owned Casino by the port?
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10 hours ago, JimHuaHin said:
Vichit Prakobgosol, vice president of the Tourism Council of Thailand, seems to have zero understanding of what is happening in China.
He learned nothing in the past 2 years. He watched too much CCTV/CGTV/Xinhua propaganda. I wait new headline of TAT begging for Chinese tourist for Chinese New Year 2023 by September...Of course there will be multiple cries for tourists from India, Saudi Arabia and Iran in between.
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16 hours ago, Cambodger said:
If my dog had three rabies vaccines and then caught rabies i might start questioning the efficacy of the vaccine.
No, you should question which other bloody dog from which house nearby have been taking advantage of your infected one. Oh, the least you should also question your own dog's judgement in seeking pleasure from risky encounters.
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Anyone here feel surprised by this should questioning why themselves thought otherwise.
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6 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:
Regarding your point #1:
More than 60% of Thailand's population, including the most vulnerable segment of senior citizens, has NOT received a third dose COVID booster vaccine that's required to best combat the Omicron variant.
So, exactly how is that kind of specific vaccination rate in Thailand going to be the "way forward" for the time being?
Regarding your point #3:
There was a study reported here in the past week that looked at COVID exposure rates in various countries, including some where the immunity rate was up to 80 percent, and that did not lead to a major falloff in infections. Thus the authors concluded "herd immunity" isn't likely to occur with the current variant.
First, there is no set numbers. But what I read from various sources (almost all immunology and virology articles) that 2/3 (67%) to 75% of population seems to be the magic threshold for 'herd immunity'. But that is not say 67% to 75% vaccination rate is enough. Because vaccination is only one of the many component to fight the pandemic. The ideal situation is that almost everyone should be vaccinated.
However, another poster has pointed out, that vaccine quality and boosters matters. Thailand is lacking both.
Your third point, please kindly point to the source of your claim if you can. One thing we must understand, herd immunity does not mean nobody will get infected. Herd immunity only means majority of the population has the antibody and their immune system can identify the infection and fight successfully on their own. And one part of the theory suggests hopefully with 3 generations of population developing antibodies, the virus can be weakened so much that it eventually could not kill anyone. So judging from what is happening in the US and EU, the virus has been significantly weakened. It does offer some HOPE that a version of herd immunity can be achieved (that majority of people have antibodies.).
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32 minutes ago, Stargeezr said:
Some posters used to say that Omicron was only like a flu. Well this flu is still killing people
and the pandemic is supposed to be changing to endemic? Even my Thai family have said that a few of their friends
have died of COVID. The numbers are climbing and Songkran is not over with, so I wonder how the numbers will
be in a few more days?
The thing is, once the Covid have infected a certain percentage of humans, it is no longer viable to lock down the whole population. By mathematics, once that threshold is crossed, there is no way to stop the virus going around. Because, this is an airborne virus, sort of like flu. Flu kills people too. just for your information.
Hence, some European country now comes to conclusion that we are beyond the point of containing the infection. The only way forward is to
1, Vaccinate people
2, Research on potential life saving treatment; and
3, HOPE for herd immunity (I am not saying we would achieve that, just saying there is still a hope).
So what will happen now is, people will unfortunately get infected whether vaccinated or not. However, there is always a certain percentage of population won't get infected. It is not because they are naturally immune to the virus. but rather, pure chance. It is purely mathematics. So hopefully with vaccine, self care and prevention (face mask and social distance practise based on individual choices), we can achieve the plateau of infection population ASAP. Once the certain number of infection is reached, mathematically speaking, new infection becomes very slow to grow. It is very difficult to explain in details. But the outcome is, once that number is met, pandemic is now possibly endemic. Because by that time, the death rate is decreasing and the new infection is no longer threatening in an incremental manner.
To answer your question, the number will go much higher. Because Thailand is way behind the curve compares to Europe. Sadly Thailand is no way near the magic threshold to declare endemic. The numbers will look ugly in coming weeks, if not month. But that is natural and expected.
The unfortunate truth is Europe generally have had 3-5 big waves of infection. Thailand is merely on its 2nd wave. There might be a drop down from 2nd wave soon. But do expect a third wave coming in the summer. Again, it is a high probability from the European data, not a certainty. However, I would be surprised if there is not a 3rd wave for Thailand in the summer and autumn going forward.
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So someone high up is really feeling the economic disaster looming and the pinch now?
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Open your map, now look at a region somewhere south of Mumbai, and following my lips: G-O-A.
Then look at some islands west of Mumbai, and following my lips: M-A-L-D-I-V-E-S.
Finally, look at another island south of India, and following my leads: S-R-I, L-A-N-K-A.
It is important to remember, middle class Indians have GOA to go with abundant new hotels and big wedding venues.
High class and billionaire Indians have a place called Maldives.
People who do not have enough money have Sri Lanka to visit. Apparently, Sri Lanka is going bankrupt because China had lent them so much money and built so many shining new buildings, roads and ports and Sri Lanka did not understand it had to be repaid. Now it is screaming for tourists and Indians have a nice little place for breaks. Well, maybe something Thailand really needs to look into before those shining new Chinese built high speed railway started to be repaid.
Does anyone in TAT really understand what is going on around them?
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I don't think anyone in Thai government agency know what is coming, or they are afraid to tell the public what is exactly coming.
Big economic shock is coming later this year, rather than 8 millions visitors.
Soon TAT will have to welcome new Vietnamese middle class tourists to Thailand.
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On 3/28/2022 at 9:44 AM, Longwood50 said:
Yes the electric technology is so compelling that the governments around the world have to subsidize electric vehicles and/or ban internal combustion cars.
If the case for electric cars was so overwhelmingly an economic positive you would not have to subsidize it or force customers to purchase them.
Inverters AC are hugely more efficient than conventional AC, you don't see the need to convince people of that. You didn't see the government subsidize cell phones to convince customers that they were more efficient than land lines. There was no need to provide subsidies to LED televisions that both have a better picture and use less electricity.
The actions of governments around the world are nothing more than a central controlled command and control tactic where they are selecting winners and losers.
I am afraid it is not the only issue. Over the time, the lithium battery will run out of steam and eventually die. Car owners firstly will notice the full charge would produce lesser range over the time (slow but noticeable, have you noticed how fast your phone or computer slowly become less reliable with its battery?). Then the government will face a dilemma on how to recycle (i.e. dump) the battery unit after a decade or two. Not to mention the mining of lithium, copper and other metals to make the engine and cars can bring more pollution to the world. After 6 to 10 years, the current EV will need to change its battery unit or even engine unit to be more efficient.
Finally, anyone in the government have any idea what the impact it would bring to the national grid if every car in the world is EV?
Hydrogen fuel and bio fuel is the future. Sensible government who really care about environment issues should seek alternative and should not tie their resource in E.V alone.
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8 hours ago, alphonse said:
Useful that. I was quoted £110 by the nearest "chemist" to me who did them, which is 5 miles away.
I assume the Heathrow ones are carried out before departure and give quick results.
Yes if you are from smaller regions, the chemist may have to send samples to a bigger lab who can do the PCR. SO more cost involves (transportation, chemist's big fat cut...).
The said ExpressTest, together with some other providers like Randox, are very good at pricing because they have their own on site labs.
ExpressTest have test centres in Heathrow and Gatwick airport terminals. So it is very handy. Highly recommend you book in advance. It offers rapid anti-gen test at very cheap price. I got my result within 25 minutes one morning. The Rapid PCR and same day PCR done in airports are very quick. Never tried the normal PCR which they promise result deliver by next day 23:59. But I think you will get it much quicker. They just put that information out to cover themselves. Their test centres in towns and shopping centres like Brenwood, Westfield, Croydon and other regions may take few hours longer. Check them out.
British Airways offers discount on both ExpressTest and Randox. Google it.
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I am waiting for China to object to the variant name. Chinese president name is Xi Jinping, Yeah, XJ. Surprise China has not caught on this yet.
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32 minutes ago, alphonse said:
Precisely, getting a pre-flight test is not difficult in the UK (although costly @ £100+) and is hardly the deterrent that is presented by the remaining demands for Thai Pass.
Pre-flight test is £20 for anti-gen and £50 for PCR. Slightly more expensive for same day result but less than £80 can be found. You can check the price from Express Test by Cignpost, they are based in Heathrow airport terminal so supposed to be expensive ones. Their price is very reasonable, and there are discount code available online to further reduce the cost.
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I don't know why some readers get so upset or cheerful. This piece of news is from the CCP's mouthpiece to boost their own image. It is an informal or routine visit by Thai D. PM and no agreement has been signed. And no other things have been discussed or treaty being suggested even. The location is thousands kilometres away from Beijing (hence not official visit). I suspect this visit has something to do with the submarine without the German engines. Yet the Chinese state propaganda turned the story to focus on what Wang said about 'let us make friends and work together' thing [translate: I am sorry pal, I can't keep my promise, but let us keep our friendship. We can find common ground in other things like the useless trade group. Come on Pal, let us play sword fight to make up. You might feel better afterwards. ][***
if you don't know what is sword fight, ask your grandpa or great grandpa***]. Somehow some poster wet their pants (sorry if it causes offense but I did not really mean someone wet their pants, it is just English language thing, in case someone here not familiar with the impression and report my post) for whatever reason I can only guessing. Chill out everyone. Wait for Thailand's media to report this meeting. If Thai media kept quiet or not saying the same thing CCP was preaching, it would 100% about the submarine. -
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Both are accurate.
Every time when TAT and Thailand have information that they anticipate changes in entry requirement, there would be a surge in searching hotels on Agoda.
Also, Agoda buys ads on internet, so anyone who accidentally searched anything remoted connect to Thailand would/might/maybe be offered a deep link to Agoda to encourage internet users to search for hotels on Agoda.
To Agoda, the interests are increasing. But the actual bookings?
Well, this is where bookings dot com site is telling the truth. It is going nowhere. There is simply not enough tourists actually book anything.
Agoda needs news like this to remain relevant. A vague terms that searching has increased. But when? and by how much? Any bookings? Conversion rate from search click to actual booking? No words on it. Because Agoda's intention is to get on the news and be relevant to make sure investors are happy that it is spending money on advertisement to stay relevant. It is called, errrr, marketing. For all we know, the increase in search traffic might be solely based on increasing marketing budget Agoda spends on search engines.
So let us go back to the original question. I am afraid Thailand unfortunately have missed the opportunity.
First, Thailand now has a bad taste left among tourists who would have returned. The entry requirement has too many obstacles. People have been waiting and waiting. It has been a year since many of Europeans and Americans got their vaccine and was waiting for Thailand to open up. But what Thailand had done is to tell them that Thailand does not want them. So many of them will discover some destinations they did not think of going: Spain, Portugal, Turkey, Egypt, UAE, Qatar, Maldives, the Caribbean, the cruise ships...Staycation becomes another fashionable thing among tourists.
Second, now Thailand is unfortunately becoming a Covid hot spot. Remember how Thailand introduced the draconian entry requirement because Europe and American was a dirty place rampant with Covid? Now you try to convince the triple jabbed tourists from those country Thailand looked down at earlier when Thailand was the 'example' of clean Covid free place to pay a visit? Well, some might. But many will say no. The daily infection number will make some of the tourists staying away.
Third, Thailand is not helping itself by position itself begging for Indians, Chinese and Russian tourists. Believe in it or not, many tourists do take moral seriously. Especially Europeans, with the Russian invasion, many Europeans would think twice about Thailand that publicly luring tourists from India (who buys oil from Russia which indirectly fund the war), China (the biggest Russia backer) and Russia itself. At this moment, there is no boycott of Thailand yet. But it could be a thing as war going longer and Russia's friends were further exposed.
Fourth, economical condition in the world means less disposable income to spend in Thailand. High inflation, high energy price, rising interests rates...The longer Thailand wait, the more bleak the future for Thailand tourism is to be. The middle class is being squeezed really hard with high inflation and high oil price. And the worst is not here yet. If any forecast is to be taken, the traditional middle class that typically spend big in Thailand will suffer greatly by end of the year and next year. When interest rate in Europe and USA hit 2.5%, Thailand will find itself have at least 50% less tourist trips from USA and Europe.
Fifth, did I mention airfares will become more expensive and Thailand hotels and restaurant will have to raise price to double of what it was soon? You guys are good at calculation.
Thailand has to be totally open by May, if it missed the May deadline, one third of the business may fall. Not only that, if world economic condition continue worsen with 7% inflation quarter on quarter, and oil price stay above $120 for long time to come, the high season in October is not going to happen. The great squeeze of Middle Class in USA and Europe will kill off any remaining demand. People will take vacations closer to home.
Finally, the political risks are increasing every day Thailand remain draconian on tourists entry hence deprive many livelihoods and job opportunities. Why do you suddenly see news about Thaksin? Think about it, the military government has been in power for quite a long time, the longer it is controlling, and the longer Covid is damaging the society, the more tension there is brewing within society. Yellow shirts, red shirts have never gone away. It is still coexisting in the society. When hardship hits, it will crumble. Old feud will be discussed. People with different political views will re-group. The longer the current situation going on, the more/higher pressure it will accumulate over a short period of time. Soon or later, some political miscalculation will cause a major break points. It might take few years, it might never happen in our life time. But Thailand's history is full of coup and political infighting that involve with the mass. And history tends to repeat itself. The current political cycle will find its ending pretty much sooner should one corner of the society is hard hit by the hardships.
Can Thai hospitality sector survive 2022? Unfortunately Thailand has missed its chance, it will no longer be depended on the next policy chance of Thailand's Covid entry rules. Rather, in my opinion, if current situation is not improving soon worldwide, 2022 is a gone year for many working in Thailand tourism sector. For potential tourists, not only their smaller disposable income will stop them making big trips to Thailand with higher air fares and more expensive lodging and food expenditures, the increasingly unstable political outlook in Thailand will stop many coming visit even if the remaining restrictions are cancelled.
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Indian tourist in Pattaya says a transgender thief took his expensive necklace on Second Road overnight
in Pattaya News
Posted
Welcome to Thailand, LoS. Just be glad that you are not the first one, nor the last one. Next time remember not to get anything free from a stranger!