ChC1

It is not against alcohol. It is against the imported western bar and pub culture. Xenophobic under the skin of anti-alcoholism. The next target will be GYM, tattoo, jeans and sleeveless shirts. You just wait and see. The cultural guard will have their go at some the western cultures in disguise of Covid. Who would miss this perfect opportunity?

3 hours ago, wasabi said:

Farang must now confirm they were not raped or murdered every day.  If that is what Thailand calls a vacation I think I will just stay home.

That is what happens when you put someone with limited capacity in charge, or use another word, incompetent. 

Meanwhile, the local sharks are swimming freely and enjoy the moment that invading species are cleaned out. Maybe time to raise the interest rates?

Maybe expat from UAE or Singapore? Or those who has a home in Thailand but work in Europe or USA? Some of the Aussies could have taken advantage of the New Zealand bubble while it was OK to travel via New Zealand as New Zealand has no exit control?

8 minutes ago, lesmac said:

He said that 97% of residents of Samui had had a first dose of vaccine and the figure for Phangan was 123% and for Koh Tao 128%. How is it possible to exceed 100 percent, do they mean 23 and 28 percent have second jab

non-residence, illegal immigrates, falangs or adult children that are not in the official registry.

When the Russians arrive in droves, the Phuket sandbox is done. It will be like a Russian Doll, inside outsides layers of Russians. Thanks, no. Thank you for warning us Thailand.

3 hours ago, Uroller said:

You can always tell the people that watch FakeNews in the US????

You mean like Obama declare USA has won the war in Afghanistan on CNN in 2014?

45 minutes ago, HappyExpat57 said:

Wasn't 90 cases within a week the threshold for shutting it down?

It was. But in TAT's defence that they never told you the 90 cases per week threshold was designed for the sandbox tourists group only. When the threshold was decided, the number crunchers never expected the local would get even close to 9 cases per week. Until they realised unvaccinated Thai workers or tourists from the north are bring in the Delta variant and then it is too late. 

I fully expect one article will exploit the '90 cases per sandbox tourists group weekly' idea soon to make sure people believe sandbox scheme is working well.

2 hours ago, dennnis said:

What about Israel? Before I posted this video, but has been deleted. Apparently does not got with this forum agenda.

What about Israel?

It is doing fine. The third wave is coincident with the opening up for international travel, people travel to outside Israel and the Jewish people travel to Israel. Sure, you would say Israel is not officially open for tourists yet. However, you need to pay attention to the word: individual tourist. What does that mean? Jewish groups that go to visit religious sites, attending trainings or individual families that visit relatives can visit Israel. And almost every Jewish can claim Israeli passports. Hence Israel was never closed. All these brings in virus. The third wave is evitable.

Plus, there are division among ultraorthodox groups whether one should get vaccine or not. Over 75% population is fully vaccinated is a huge achievement. But there is a ceiling and Israel will find it difficult to give it to 100% of the population. There will be resistance from the orthodox groups.

Based on above information, the you look at the death number of Israel. Sure, there is a beginning of third wave forming. However, look at the total death graphic in a linear scale, it has been flat since April 1st 2021. It means the vaccine is working. The vaccine was never intended to stop transmission but to reduce severe cases and death. Without vaccine, Israel would be certainly doing much worse. 

Plus, now there is evidence of Pfizer and Modena vaccine may have reduced antibody issue after 6 months, Israel experience may prove this newly emerged theory and a third booster vaccine may be finally approved by every government. 

Israel is doing fine. Better than many other countries.

43 minutes ago, Espanol said:

 

My September ticket to Phuket with Turkish Airlines has already been canceled by the airline

 

 

It is interesting, I went to have a look after your post. It is indeed Turkish Airlines are not selling any ticket to Phuket any more. Can't find any fares on the system.

However, Singapore Airlines is still twice daily between Singapore and Phuket.

At least there is some clarity for now, until 18th August to be precise. Not good enough but improvement for some. I think we should cheer for it as we know it is a rarity that someone in charge at least have a plan until 18th August.

5 hours ago, the green light said:

we know that there 2 ways to make money

 

1.incrase volume

2.raise prices

 

14,000 tourist would not generate Bht 1b....but raising prices would.

five star hotels  100%

local businesses 0%

 

However the rest of the country suffers. 

 

Tourists should have the heart of not going to Phuket and dumping a lot of money there. They should donate money to the poor and sick in thailand in these hard times.

The fallacy in your mind is, you seemed can not accept five star hotels are local business, they employ local people, pay local tax, buy produce from local vendors, provide falang to local mafia taxies, provide tourists to venture into the woods, into the bars and massage parlours...Five star hotels are the centre of the picture. Without the five star hotels, there won't be any local businesses. There will be no street side restaurant for the hotel staff, there will be no local farmers sell local produce to the hotel kitchen, there will be no local laundry to do the laundry for the hotel and guests, there will be no bars as there would be no foreign guests, there would be no taxies as there is no stupid falang to pay stupid prices, there would be no 7-11 or Family Mart as there is no cheap Chinese looking for cheap stuff in a chain store. and there would be no jet ski mafia to manage the beaches...what's worse, there might not be a paved road in that part of the village if not due to the five star hotels.

It is unfortunate that many local business suffer at this moment, but that is no fault of Phuket sandbox or the five star hotels. It is due to the pandemic. 

Tourist spend money in the five star hotels, its tax revenue goes to benefit local Thais in education and transportation investment, its money also goes into local wages that eventually cycle into the normal Thai family and local businesses, and its money benefits local farmers and fisherman who can sell its produce. It provides employment to Thai men and women otherwise may not be able to find suitable employment back in Isan or backwaters of Krabi.  

There is a perfect place for you at this moment, think about Myanmar. Many of its tropical lands there is no five star hotels. Maybe you could spend few days in some of the villages north of Khao Lak in Myanmar and give us some trip report. 

2 hours ago, jazzdog32095 said:

Last time man, In the US death is dealt 92.5% to 55+ and 2,5% to 40 and under. It's not a model it is what happened. How do you explain how delta or any variant is going to suddenly choose to attack younger, vital 40 and under and not a effect 55+ who are far more vulnerable? Possibly greater exposure risk. But we are talking death not new cases. I am certain the 40 and under crowd has a far higher % of new cases but they only die 2.5%. The delta indeed is transmitted double the rate but is not case by case more deadly. Read this it may help you understand that this is an old man disease.  Provisional COVID-19 Deaths by Sex and Age | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (cdc.gov)

You are keeping posting this number. But this number means nothing without considering the actual cases.

For once thing, majority of the death have one or two or even more health conditions. 

See CDC:

Certain Medical Conditions and Risk for Severe COVID-19 Illness | CDC

This is from the early research.

The second point is the early death among US death occurred in nursing homes. Remember the outcry when New York governor and what he did about nursing homes?

CDC also have a research:

Nursing Homes Data Dashboard | NHSN | CDC

So do you remember which group in US got vaccine first? It is not the elderly! It is the nurses and frontline workers. Especially the nursing home nurses were urged to take the vaccine asap, that is precisely for the purpose to break the infection chain happening in nursing homes. 

The first wave in USA had devastating effects on elderly people who have health problems or in nursing homes. Once you take out this population, there are not many unexpected death compare to normal years. It is partly due to vaccine, however, it is also true that when weaker population died, the remaining population are stronger in terms of immunity fighting the infection. 

Thailand is at a different stage compare to US and Europe. It did not get devastated scene from the first and second waves. It stood well. But the Delta variant is different. The social structure is different. The age structure is different. There are only 10% of Thai are over 65. However, there are 47% in 25-54 age groups with life expectancy of 75 years. Whereas in USA, there are over 14% are 65 and older, 40% in 25-54 age groups and life expectancy of 78.8 years. 

You might thing the 4% does not make much difference. But have a look at this website:

What Percent Of People Live In Nursing Homes? 101+ Stats! (simplyinsurance.com)

I quote from this insurance company:

[quote]In 2020 over 40% of all reported Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths in the U.S. happened in a nursing home.[/quote]

The same source also claims 107,107 people from nursing home died of Covid in the US.

So, for one thing, how many people live in Nursing home in Thailand? I don't have the number. Considering USA has 1.8 million licenced nursing home beds, I would put a bet to say Thailand would not have more than 250,000 nursing home beds. 

I sincerely hope you stop quoting the same data over and over again. It is not useful in proving your points without look into what the data mean. 

I don't want to sound cynical, but, read this line in the statstitics I quoted you, it said 5 Months Is the average nursing home stay before death. What that means, is that the 107,107 Covid death happened in US nursing homes during last year, would still be dead by now in average even if they were given the vaccine. 

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Maybe you meant alpha and delta.

No, definitely Beta. Because Beta was the variant of concern for much of the spring and summer before Delta.

9 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

You don't even know what the dominant variants have been in Europe. Beta?? As for the rest well writing another essay to respond to such basic mistakes is time wasting

Thanks. However, I would like to points out that I did not say Beta was a dominant variant? You misread the sentence, or I might have written it in a way to make you think I said it was dominant. But that was not my intention. 

15 hours ago, chang1 said:

Why no children? They have much more natural immunity than adults so, as far as I  know, are no more riskier than vaccinated adults. 

The Delta variant last month swept UK is seen more prevalent among younger adults and among schools children. Children is more likely to be the super spreader (I am not saying they are, but more likely) as many of them are asymptomatic. Sure they will weather the infection well and no severe reactions after infection. However, it is also true that the virus can be passed on from them more easily as they mix in schools and then families. Hence if Thailand's priority is less cases, and tourists' priority is not to get infected then sent to ASQ hotels, it is better to admit vaccinated tourists only. Once the cases are down, then open for family tourists with children who is less likely to be vaccinated as of now. 

Let us not forget not long ago, there were a family from Switzerland confirmed as Covid positive as they have unvaccinated children with them. With only 26 confirmed Sandbox tourist cases, 3-4 members in a family get the virus is a big portion in the overall numbers.

Last week there are 6 positive cases onboard Adventure of the Seas in Bahamas. Two are unvaccinated children, four are vaccinated adults. Although there is no conclusion that the said children were the source of infection, other Caribbean islands now introduced travel ban for unvaccinated children above 12 years old, specifically US Virgin Islands and others after this incidence. This measure is likely to be introduced to other places too. 

Thus to me, the choice is simple. If you want tourists visiting and no severe Covid cases among them to deter future tourists, then you need to make sure everyone is vaccinated at the initial opening stage. If there is (I am saying IF, a big IF) a case of an unvaccinated children infects several vaccinated tourists on the plane landing in Phuket, then infects some poor hotel workers who got the Chinese vaccine in a one in million chance who then subsequently got severely ill, that would really destroy sandbox for good. It is a chance Thailand can not afford to take now with daily cases raising so steep and no end in sight.