Cherrytreeview

As far as i know CCSA has the final word. Pattaya City officials aren't in control, the CCSA are. Bangkok police apparently where in Pattaya last night carrying out raids. Know one bar owner who is shutting tonight to keep a low profile. Vast majority of "bars" in Pattaya are operating illegally. Many expat bar owners still won't risk opening and breaking the law.

See Brian has posted this already. With a virus infection rate doubling every 2 to 3 days. Expect lockdowns within a few weeks. With not even 70% of the Thai population double jabbed and only 7% with a booster, the Thai government will have to buy themselves some time. For the "omicron" is milder, nothing to worry about posters.

https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/news/vaccination-status-deaths-and-hospitalisations-report Here's a bit more actual data "than a small sample". Better to be vaccinated or unvaccinated? Can't believe you even made that post.

Think I'll believe the Doctor and the science thanks. You believe what you want.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/unvaccinated-account-90-per-cent-22546873 Doctor in one of the front line London hospitals.

Phuket have cancelled the 6am next morning opening on New Year's Eve and reinstated it to 1am. I believe the Bangkok BIB where sniffing about Pattaya last night. Many "bar/restaurants" are not officially licensed and i know one owner who has closed again for a couple of nights just in case. Data clearly now showing that a booster dose is the best thing to protect against omicron. Thailand still only 7% of the population boosted. Buckle up for the ride.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59758784

Early indications that England may have peaked already.

Pre-print from South Africa looking at omicron disease severity: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.21.21268116v1.full.pdf Early assessment of the clinical severity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in South Africa Results Among hospitalised individuals, after controlling for factors associated with severe disease, the odds of severe disease did not differ between SGTF-infected individuals compared to non-SGTF individuals diagnosed during the same time period (aOR 0.7, 95% CI 0.3-1.4). Compared to earlier Delta infections, after controlling for factors associated with severe disease, SGTF-infected individuals had a lower odds of severe disease (aOR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2-0.5). Conclusion Early analyses suggest a reduced risk of hospitalisation among SGTF-infected individuals when compared to non-SGTF infected individuals in the same time period. Once hospitalised, risk of severe disease was similar for SGTF- and non-SGTF infected individuals, while SGTF-infected individuals had a reduced risk of severe disease when compared to earlier Delta-infected individuals. Some of this reducton is likely a result of high population immunity. So they found that omicron infections had a 80% lower odds of being admitted to hospital compared to non-omicron variants, but did not differ in the risk of severe disease once in hospital. When compared to delta infections, omicron infections were associated with a 70% lower odds of severe disease. They make the following point: “It is difficult to disentangle the relative contribution of high levels of previous population immunity versus intrinsic lower virulence to the observed lower disease severity. Our finding of no difference in severity in SGTF compared to non-SGTF infected individuals in the same time period, and the lower risk of severity in SGTF compared to earlier Delta infected individuals, suggests that this reduced severity may be in part a result of high levels of population immunity (due to natural infection and/or vaccination)” So an explanation might be that omicron is able to evade immunity in order to infect a person, but immunity against severe disease is still maintained, therefore producing lots of mild cases. This puts the focus on the nature of a populations immunity to reduce the hospitalisation rate. In the case of SA, high levels of previous infection (up to 70% of the population) might somewhat explain their low peak hospitalisation rate. Three doses has been shown to offer 98.8% effectiveness against hospitalisation after 14 days (compared to unvaccinated) vs delta: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination So with relatively high levels of previous infection and very high three dose coverage, a population is likely to have a decent level of protection against hospitalisation This is encouraging early data about the severity of omicron. UK scientists are apparently going to confirm this with a major study later this week. It explains why a booster dose is recommended.

Hopefully will be a short suspension after a quick spike of omicron.

BA and EVA not flying direct from Heathrow now. Just leaves Thai airways to have a field day rinsing the people who wish to fly directly to BKK. Seems BA knows there will be no demand for low season travel to Thailand with all the hoop jumping and restrictions. They have obviously had a look at forward bookings. Not everyone wants to travel through the middle east hubs adding another covid infection opportunity into an already stressful journey.

200,000 Test-Maybe-Go-Hospital applications 2021 40 million 2019 Thailand might as well be shut after you take out returnees and necessary business travellers.

Scotland have just cancelled Hogmanay. With a virus 70 times as transmissible as Delta, Thailand could panic and do anything.

Was speaking to someone i know today who went to a local restaurant for a meal. Virus spread like wildfire. Just reading the sequence of events, including passing 2 PCR tests to gain entry to Thailand, the opportunity for spread is huge. I would be pretty sure this gentleman would have failed the new 7th day PCR Test. Then it's off to hospital you go.

Thought it would be helpful to some. You are quite right but i would think Mr Barrow won't be far from the mark. Although, no guarantees.

I would think this should be bang on the money for those travelling.

Your quite right, but this is a Thailand forum not the eastern europe anti vax crazees forum. I would think the Thai people have been shown to be very pro vaccine but seems their government isn't stepping up to the mark. Daily vaccine figures are down to lowish six figures. Worrying that you got a like from the one forum contributor that has been proven completely and utterly wrong on every prediction he has made during this pandemic.

The reality outside SA.

Hardly a free lunch having to do a PCR Test on day 7. Apparently 90,000 due to come on the Thailand Pass scheme. Omicron will be ripping through the population over the next month in Thailand. That second PCR Test looks like Russian roulette to me unless you self isolate on arrival in Thailand. What a care free and stress free holiday with a likely close down of the new illegal alcohol serving restaurants likely to be closed down.

Mass vaccination campaign? Only 61% double jabbed and only 7% boosted. Thailand can't even catch up with other countries, let alone have any chance of getting ahead. Who can book a holiday when you haven't a clue what the rules of entry will be in advance.

With a pathetic 7% with boosters. The optimists that think Thailand will be getting a normal high season could be waiting a few years. Other countries have procured vaccines and delivered a booster campaign at speed. Thailand still hasn't even double jabbed 70% of it's population by the end of 2021. Really disappointing.

Oh dear. There goes "high" season and what dregs that would have been left in Jan and Feb. Remember our resident "expert" saying everything was coming together for opening up for high season and Thailand was immune to omicron? With 7 day quarantine (paid) coming back as well, will be a lot of cancellations as well. Reports already that omicron infects so easily and quickly that a 3 PCR Test fail go straight to hospital is getting a higher probability by the day. In view that all my music venues in Bangkok and gogos in Nana, Soi Cowboy, LK Metro and Walking Street closed, pool leagues not operating in Pattaya and a complete sausage fest. Nothing worth taking the risk for.

No testing, no cases, no clue where infections are in the community. Won't change, ignorance is bliss.

Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, said he reckoned another 18 months. With each 6 months better than the last. If i was a betting man, i would go with that.