1 hour ago, david555 said:

https://www.bahtsold.com/view/40sqm-newly-renovated-condo-in-pratumnak-pattaya-only-yhb-799-000-402909

 

Bookmarking bahtsold, thanks! Seems cheaper than fazzwazz, but maybe fewer listings?

The properties in today's TV email seem a bit cheaper than usual for that source (eg around $1500/m^2):

https://www.fazwaz.com/property-sales/2-bedroom-condo-for-sale-at-fortune-condo-town-in-chong-nonsi-bangkok-u629716

https://www.fazwaz.com/property-sales/1-bedroom-condo-for-sale-at-c-view-boutique-and-residence-in-nong-prue-pattaya-u629724

So I checked some stats, and It looks like these are now showing property prices falling. eg the DD Property Index is down about 5.3* in Q3 relative to Q1. The BoT Condo prices index** shows a 2.7% drop since peaking in Jan 2020.

I wonder if anyone who's been actively looking at property has noticed prices softening? (or not...)

Also, are there other property listing sites are worth checking apart from fazwaz? 

* DD Property Index 2020:

Q1: 207

Q2: 204 (-1.4%)

Q3: 196 (-3.9%, must be an estimate, because Q3 doesn't end till 30th Sept?)

https://www.ddproperty.com/insights/ddproperty-thailand-property-market-index-q3-2020-2-696

https://www.ddproperty.com/insights/ddproperty-thailand-property-market-index-q2-2020-651

https://www.ddproperty.com/insights/ddproperty-thailand-property-market-index-q1-2020-2-597

**

https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=680&language=eng

38 minutes ago, hashmodha said:

What I read recently is although Thailand doesn't manufacture gold,it is actively trading in gold with its dollar reserves. Have no idea how this maps out, someone is making a fortune,and then we read this,if this is going to be worse than 1997, then the outcome will be extremely serious,It would be nice to have a decent exchange rate,at least so retirees like me can spend a little extra for essentials rather than hoping the rate of exchange gets a little better and convert in a hurry, only last week the rate was good... now fallen again!????!

IDK about the central bank, but won't Thai households be selling gold (to raise funds if they're affected by the recession &/ take profits)? If so, those 'exports of gold' will support the baht for a while. (And any efforts to weaken the baht by the central bank could backfire, by raising the price of gold in baht and triggering more profit-taking.) 

1 hour ago, animalmagic said:

Article 38 This Law shall apply to offences under this Law committed against the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region from outside the Region by a person who is not a permanent resident of the Region.

I believe this is an example of legislation with 'long-arm jurisdiction', but a few weeks back...:

Quote

"We urge the United States to stop its illegal unilateral sanctions and 'long-arm jurisdiction,' and return to the right track of observing the JCPOA and Resolution 2231," he said.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-01/China-asks-U-S-to-stop-unilateral-sanctions-on-Iran-RLisDlOJmo/index.html

(TBH though I don't think hypocrisy about foreign policy etc is unique to any one country.)

The largest study on the effects of ACEi/ARBs on COVID-19 to date has shown a neutral or protective effect:

Quote

Today we have a larger study (open access) that seems to confirm that. It’s a retrospective look from the Wuhan area at 1128 coronavirus patients, 188 of them who were taking drugs in those two classes and 940 of them who were not, median age 64, 53% men.

The unadjusted mortality rate between the two groups was certainly different: 9.8% death in the larger group versus 3.7% in the ACE-I/ARB group. This effect persists after a more thorough comparison, adjusting for age, gender, comorbidities and other medications. In fact, it appears that no matter how you slice the data, what subgroups you’re looking at, ACE inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers had significant benefit, and that goes for the head-to-head comparison with other hypertension drugs as well.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/20/good-news-on-the-coronavirus-angiotensin-connection

The previous smaller study showed a neutral effect. So "keep taking your hypertension meds and carry on" folks ????

14 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

Hydroxychloroquine, frankly it appears leftists literally want more people to die. Governor Andy Cuomo even banned its outpatient use in New York.

Apparently that's to protect stocks for use in hospitals:

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/apr/02/facebook-posts/chloroquine-not-banned-michigan-new-york-and-nevad/

(Which may not make sense, because one factor obfuscating the effectiveness of the drug may be that it works far better started early, but it's a far cry from wanting people to die for political reasons...)

11 hours ago, J Town said:

https://truthout.org/articles/hydroxychloroquine-company-had-million-dollar-contract-with-former-trump-lawyer/

There are some problems with this article:

1) hydroxychloroquine is a generic, any pharma can produce and supply it as a bulk API (active pharmaceutical ingredient). Here's ten for starters:

https://pharmaoffer.com/api-excipient-supplier/hydroxychloroquine

Here's two more:

https://www.thepharmaletter.com/article/mylan-and-teva-make-malaria-drug-pledges-on-covid-19

No particular reason for Novartis to make much out of this.

2) The Novartis-Cohen contract expired in Feb 2018

3) (slightly postdating the Truthout revelations) Trump has pressured India for supplies of hydroxychloroquine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52180660

How's that going to boost Novartis?

Incompetence looks a better explanation than corruption in this case: Trump just needs a quick fix/game changer to help him get re-elected, or at least offer hope to his constituency.

6 hours ago, Lee4Life said:

This is now being contradicted by many experts worldwide, for one thing they are now saying that talking may very well disperse tiny droplets and particles, if this is true then an Asymptomatic person could infect others even though they were not coughing or sneezing. They are still learning, so it would pay to err on the side of safety.

Heres a video of saliva particles floating about during a conversation:

https://youtu.be/2w9M6K9vSUM?t=886

This discusses some data regarding mask use quite extensively (35m):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoDwXwZXsDI

Main points for me:

- high rates of mask use (even low quality masks) do massively cut the spread of the virus (because the effect of both parties weating masks is multiplicative)

- masks made from many kinds of cloth are apparently about as good as/better than surgical masks

- getting infected while wearing a mask etc is likely to result in a much less serious infection (because the initial 'innoculum' of virus particles is smaller, and the immune system has more time to adapt)

There may just be a usable virus within 5-6m - assuming the two periods mentioned can't overlap at all - if this isn't just some overconfident CEO shooting his mouth off:

Quote

 

Separately, Israel’s state-funded Migal Galilee Research Institute said it had identified similarities between COVID-19 and Infectious Bronchitis Virus, which affects poultry, that could allow it to develop a vaccine to battle the deadly outbreak. It said it was working to quickly adapt its IBV vaccine for use against COVID-19.

 

Human trials have not yet been approved.

 

“Our goal is to produce the vaccine during the next 8-10 weeks, and to achieve safety approval in 90 days,” Migal CEO David Zigdon said in a statement.

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-firm-says-it-developed-kit-to-diagnose-coronavirus/

Update on COVID-19 outbreak with Professor Neil Ferguson and Professor Christl Donnelly

Main takeaway for me: using Singapore as a baseline for detection rates, 2/3 of cases leaving Wuhan for other countries by air were missed.

& of course Singapore didn't catch 'em all...

2 minutes ago, saengd said:

Let's say USD goes to 33 or even 34, so? Let's say tourism gets cut in half, so? Exports rose last month, let's say they fall for the next six months, I'm guessing most every country is going to be in that same boat, the difference is that Thailand has no meaningful external government debt and it has a years worth of GDP stashed away for a rainy day in FCR and gold.

But Thailand is more dependent on most countries - even in SE Asia I think - on tourism. Many people are avoiding unnecessary travel: even tourism to France - with its neglible case count - has taken a big hit*. I'd count on that continuing until this virus is contained/becomes routinely treatable. With Asian countries dominating the case count rankings, and the extreme rapidity with which this thing 'goes viral' I think Asia will be taboo for Europeans/Americans for some time - the image of ending up in a foreign ICU doesn't make for a relaxing holiday. On top of this, potential Chinese tourists will have taken the largest economic blow. Facilities newly built to cater for them are likely to face cash flow problems etc. Echo epidemics in tourist-source developed countries may lead to travel disruption &/ Thailand imposing travel restrictions. The electronics industry is also severely disrupted; the impact on Asia generally from that seems likely to be larger than for other regions, with potential for lagged effects on electronics FDI into Thailand.

FCR and gold reserves would allow Thai policy makers support the baht, but if the economic impact is severe enough, they won't want to, or will at most aim to maintain an orderly devaluation.

*https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2020/02/25/tourism-in-france-set-to-plummet-by-30-40-due-to-coronavirus/#73464012a279

On 2/20/2020 at 1:12 PM, saengd said:

But when it comes time to sell the gold it would logically be sold for THB once again and that will cause the value of THB to rise further.

This is what the article is describing (profit taking sales of gold bought between 2012-19, at lower prices).

32 minutes ago, Vigilante said:

All flu viruses hate hot weather.

Flu epidemics don't happen in the middle of a hot summer.

Northern latitudes have a few more months to go but we are already there.

This was apparently why the SARs epidemic petered out quickly in spring 2003. Corona viruses generally do seem to have this susceptibility to hot weather; widespread aircon in Singapore & HK has been cited as the factor permitting significant outbreaks there.

The question is: are the low counts in most SE Asian countries - which 'should' have many more cases due to passenger flows with China - low mainly because of virus-unfriendly weather, or under-reported due to inadequate diagnosis and case tracking?

If the latter, some northern climes are likely about to get a shock...

Quote

Thailand is currently in Phase 2 and in order for the Thai government to initiate Phase 3, 1,000 people per day would need to be infected with the coronavirus, Daily News reported. 

Given the infectiousness of this virus, this seems to be a "plan" to respond way too late.

7 hours ago, phkauf said:

The only reasonable explanations for the baht's strength at this point I can think of are:

- as the article mentioned imports are down relative to exports, which keeps the current account surplus high. This is very important so as not to repeat a 1997 type crash. But it also signals something VERY ominous - the economy is slowing dramatically and could fall into a recession.

- the cross currency flows ($ to baht, etc) are not significant enough to push the rate down at this point. In other words, Thailand just doesn't matter much compared to other major currencies. The Baht is definitely not a safe haven currency, but it is stable enough not to panic sell at the moment.

Whatever the reason, I just don't see how the baht can stay this high for very long. 

Also profit taking on gold, which apparently is get converted into baht and repatriated:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-economy-gold/gold-a-new-headache-for-thai-central-bank-as-baht-surges-idUSKBN1WQ170

If gold strengthens further, that's likely to increase (at least until weak hands are empty).

So 6m to a year out there could be a baht double whammy from a recession (hinted at by import weakness) & gold sales ebbing (depending on the path of gold prices, Thai holdings etc). A significant weakening (+ the economic effects of coronavirus on China & likely Asia) could also take the shine off the baht's safe haven status.

23 hours ago, Maestro said:

 

It is perfectly legal for you to start taking your Thai language classes while you are in Thailand on your 60-day permission to stay based on your entry with a tourist visa. During this time, with the necessary papers from the school, you can apply for a non-immigrant visa and subsequently for an extension of stay for the reason of studying under clause 2.9 of the Police Order 327/2557 (2014). The school should be able to give you guidance with these applications.

This could be useful for me too at some point - very difficult info to find, thanks!

22 minutes ago, potless said:

My above post was based on what I read in the Wikipedia link. Maybe that info is not up to date but it stated that a paid for E visa is required for nationals of 20 countries including Uk and USA.  Thanks for the other link. I will have a look at it.                                                                

Sure - I meant the Wikipedia link was misleading ????

35 minutes ago, potless said:

Thanks for the link. Interesting that Thais can get 30 days visa free, yet U.K. and U.S.A. citizens have to get a visa in advance.

That's a little misleading, some countries can get e-visas on arrival:

https://www.evisa.gov.tr/en/info/i-do-not-want-to-apply-for-an-e-visa-can-i-get-a-visa-on-arrival/

The Turkish Lira also devalued by around 50% since 2018:

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=TRY&view=5Y

(Looks like it could weaken further too.)

5 minutes ago, thequietman said:

I think I will pass. ????

Your prerogative, as I said "Turkey's a very different country, but in terms of ease of getting permanent residence"...

(And have you checked the human rights records of some other countries, including Buddhist ones?)

6 hours ago, christophe75 said:

Once again, Israel shows that they are a little more rational than other -deluded- countries. 

But this is too little, too late, 'quarantine at home' won't work (with Israelis...) and there's no mention of testing for the virus at any point.

Given the passenger flows involved, they probably have ample facilities to quarantine everyone, (and deducted the days from annual military service to sweeten the pill a bit). But these are half measures where one case might start an epidemic.

6 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

I’d like to know what the Mortality rate is for: 

0-5 year olds

6-16 year olds

17-50 year olds

50-65 year olds

65+ year olds

There's some less detailed data on disease severity from a journal article cited in this video (@13"):

Tabulating in an easier to follow format:

                    >65yo         >50yo                all cases

Total cases  :  153            445 (=292+153)   1011

Severe cases:  44             95 (=51+44)       163

SCR*           :  28.7%         21.3%               16.1%

So seriousness definitely increases with age, and presumably mortality too.  Smoking also seems to be a risk (although the guy in the video doesn't appear to understand the p values and fails to understand this).

There may well be other tables in the article this came from, if you can track it down.

*Severe Complication Rate (assuming this is how it's defined?)

Quote

In the near term, the outbreak of coronavirus has forced Thais to wrestle with the consequences of their country’s dependence on Chinese tourists. In light of recent estimates that tourism from China composes 2.7 percent of Thailand’s economy, the absence of Chinese visitors has caused a decline in the value of the baht.

https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/coronavirus-hits-thailand-hard/

Based on destinations for outward travel from Wuhan/Hubei, Thailand should have had by far the most potentially infected travellers coming in. Any ideas why there aren't more cases? (Or evidence pointing to fudging/undercounting?)

(China will have to relax restrictions on its citizens soon, so nowhere - particularly a country without restrictions on travel from China - is out of the woods just yet...)