MicroB

I have a 2014 Fiesta. Yeah, it needed the clutch doing, about £2k at a Ford dealer on the island, about what I paid for it. But clutch aside, its a very good car, so I felt it was worth repairing. Toyotas might be better, but for the same age, cost twice as much. And 20 year old Toyotas do break down. Ford revised the parts somewhat over the years. If you find one with all the receipts for a recent clutch pack by a main dealer, Sometimes, the clutch problems are all down to a faulty earth strap. I think it will be a very good buy. Its still a very modern looking car. The Power shift is basically an electrically actuated manual box. It was a good idea, but Ford skimmed corners, but eventually addressed the issues. On mine, the signs of it failing was the car started to judder in heavy traffice, just like on a normal manual car someone riding the clutch. Eventually, it failed to go into reverse. The diagnosis was straightforward, and there were a few Fiestas in getting the same work. The parts are a similar price to the UK, but obviously the labour cost was a fraction.

The previous Volgoneft tankers that sunk weren't supposed to be in the Black Sea. Tankers normally used for inland waterways. This third one is another Volgoneft coastal tanker. A really good explanation why coastal tankers are in the Black Sea following the pullout of the Black Sea Fleet from Crimea, depriving shipping of protection in the Sea of Azov. Ukrainian attacks on the Kerch Bridge has resulted the Russians having to take action that has reduced the navigability through the Straits. Obviously there is mockery about Russian shipping, and concerns about environmental impacts. I suspect everything this guy is describing the Russian know about. It shows how important it is for Russia to get their oil down the Don for export, that they are prepared to take risks. The crews must know the risks, so the bonuses must be pretty decent. Not a country that is winning.

Well, if you look at his posts in the last 72 hours on Twitter, it is sort of about Islam. He was motivated, it seems, by being ignored by the German authorities about criminal complaints he made about a refugee organisation, run by Germans and Saudis, being a front for under age prostitution. His last posting has made very stron allegations. In the last few weeks, he has posted images of the Quran being overlaid with a cigarette warning label, the Kaba'a in Mecca being overlaid with an AI Clown,, copies of chats he has had telling Muslims what they need to do to renounce Islam, and that he's a witness to that, as well as an image that literally says "<deleted> Islam". If he was a sleeper, he has balls not to have been offed by his own side. Unless they are all in on it. He's am experienced psychiatrist, specialist in psychotherapy, and therefore with access to controlled drugs. Probably he has self diagnosed, self treated, and become increasingly delusional. I suspect he probably was quite threatened by friends of Saudi Arabia, and this has fed the delusion. People renouncing religion or adopting a religion late in life often have personal issues at the root of things. Religion can offer solace, easy answer. Religion can also be co-opted to recruit vulnerable individuals, and cause them to do bad things.

You need to look at his Twitter account. Its quite clear. He's been involved in ex-Muslim activism, and as a result, certain refugee organisations. He has spent far too much time on Social Media. He had made a complaint to the police about some German and Saudi individuals who run a certain refugee organisation. He claims the police ignored him, destroyed and stole evidence. He moves in circles which are clearly under the gaze of Saudi intelligence, who we know have a record of murdering dissidants. His derangement has become such that he believes the German state, and therefore the German people, are enabling the Saudi state, and that brand of Islam, resulting in underage women being forced into prostitution. None of it might be true, but he seems to believe hit. I think what happened yesterday will be interpreted in light of his postings. But his posts, other that being obsessed with Trump, Musk, AfD (liking them), gun rights (liking them), socialism (hating that), are fairly "normal". No hint of what he was about to do. The drug test may be significant.

You've never heard of Barry the Convert and Nick Brody then have you? Yes, he left Saudi Arabia in 2006. Yes, he obtained refugee status in 2016 Yes, he came from Hofof Yes, he was/is a doctor and practiced in Bernberg Yes, he worked as a psychiatrist, specialising in psychotherapy Yes, he is a 50 year old man, not a 18 year old youth Yes, after arrest, he was tested, and found to be under the influence of unidentified drugs, Yes, he has a social media trail indicating both Anti-Islamic in Nature and anti-Saudi Government. Yes, he has a social media trail praising AfD and Muslims who denounce their religion Yes, he appeared in a 2019 BBC documentary, explaining how he apparently helped people f;ee Arab countries, but that the only country they did not flee from was Oman (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p07g2vrp) Yes, he was featured by the Jerusalem Post in 2019 (https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/saudi-activist-successful-in-helping-women-seek-asylum-from-gulf-states-595547) Yes, he was featured in the newspaper, "New Arab", in 2017, describing his work supporting women fleeing from the Gulf States (https://www.newarab.com/features/saudi-activist-helps-women-flee-oppressive-kingdom) Yes, in 2016, he attempted a Crowd Funding type of effort to help him publish a book on the "Creative Refutation of Islam" (see https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/creative-refutation-of-islam#/) Yes, there is social media footage of him stating he is a Leftist, but at the same time stating Leftists are the worst criminals on the planet Yes, he has supported tweets from Elon Musk, Tommy Robinson and Alex Jones Yes, he posted comments supportive of Israel following October 7th Yes he posted that both he and the AfD were fighting the "same enemy" "to protect Germany" Yes, he posted comments accusing the German government of trying to "Islamise" Europe Yes, he posted comments accusing the German government of reading his mail and stealing a USB stick. Yes, he posted that he held German Citizens accountable for his alleged persecution Yes, he tweeted a LOT. His account posts are pretty significan; starting in 2016, he shared over 5000 images and videos, 47,000 followers. Amongst which, in January, an image of a list of acadmics allegedly friends of Epstein, and Richard Dawkings in underlined, Richard Dawkins of course is a famous Atheist. Yes, a few days ago, Elon Musk tweeted that only the AfD can "save" Germany Yes, Germany has a history of contrived violence before an election. 4 Lions was of course a work of fiction. So was Homeland, which if you recall, had a core plot of an American soldier who had been held by Al Qaida for many years, before a dramatic rescue, but who turned out to have been turned in captivity and become a "sleeper". Both explanations have been put forward; that for 18 years, he cleverly pretended, laying a false 16 year multi-lingual social media trail across all the major SM platforms (which included posting some pretty blasphemous images of the Quran and the Kaba'a). Or that he had become an extremist in his own world and wanted to provoke some sort of change in Germany/ Europe, and that is SM postings are an obvious clue. Both works of fiction though recognise some that is true; many religious converts are zealots in their new, adopted religion, or belief system. Al-Abdulmohsen has been described as an "Atheist". That was probably something he described himself as. Most self defined Atheists don't fully fit the actual definition. He believed in mysterious forces that would "save Germany". There is quasi-religious tones among these groups. A man I won't name for fear of being accused of invoking some law, was famously an Atheist, but also described as speaking in messianic tones. I posit another explanation. The man had lost his marbles, which is the case with many terrorists who commit mass murder. He clearly courted opinion in 2017-2019, with interviews with numerous international media or. He then has a video where he describedganisations. After then, they got bored. There are no more interviews, probably because COVID was more interesting. He was still fuming on X, and going down dark hole. He has self diagnosed (I know of a Consultant who self diagnosed himself, and secretly took Lithium until a midlife crisis caused his world to fall apart, loss of job and inevitable Sectioning), self medicated (drug test result), increasing medication, increasing delusion. His X activity very recently was extremely active. No final manifesto. Lots of examples of him coaching people how to renounce Islam, stories about how terrible Saudi is, stories about the overthrow of Assas, stories about Tommy Robinson and Elon Musk being arrested in Fermany, tweets praising Trump. His last tweets were in English, somewhat bizarre, but eloquent; 1. He described America and Europe as the inheritors of Greedk Civilisation. But he held the German nation to be responsible for the death of Socrates. Socrates of course died in prison, after drinking hemlock 2. His next video is about a stolen USB stick. He blames Germans for his persecution. He then discusses Socialism, Classical Liberalism. He says in Germany, because the laws are socialist, he's not allowed to installed a camera to monitor his mailbox. Last year, it seems, he had filed a criminal complaint with the police in Cologne, about someone I believe to be a Saudi woman, the police then distorted his complaint, and stole the USB which he said had all the evidence. He claims the police told him he was confused and refused to open the USB stick, sent it back to him, whereupon it was stolen from his mail. In the video, he is showing the police correspondance. He claims the woman is used by Germany to destroy ex-muslim activism. He says he has sent documents to various activist organisations. 3. He posts a video about allegations he's making against a corrupt refugee organisation, and that their main representative is a prostitute, coercing under age refugees into the sex industry. He basically says this organisation is designed to trick Saudi women into prostitution. He has posted videos that he says support his allegations. There is a young Saudi woman, who, with her sister, are in a hostel, and she is alleging that the organisation is trying to groom her through assault. He sounds calm, educated, fluent in English and German. Before, he had been on a Human Rights livestream, that was apparently hacked by someone posting pornographuc images. Attendees made allegations who was behind that. Many people who convert to a religion (particularly those actively abandoning one religion for another) become zealots, the Barry the Convert/ Nick Brody trope. For people with mental health issues, religion can offer solace. It helped Cat Stevens when he became Yusuf Islam, but for many years, he became a very strict Muslim, to the extent that he abandoned music because he thought it unIslamic. Late in life, its wonderful to see him realise that was stupid, and he still has a fantasitc voice and song writing skills. Rocket Ronnie O'Sullivan, the snooker player who has more than a few demons in the closet (who wouldn't with a dad banged up for murder after running a chain of sex shops, and mum doing time for tax evasion) dallied with Islam and Bhuddism. A friend of mine has Aspergers, and has announced he's now a Sufi Muslim who wants Scottish Independence (so very delusional, but not sure which of those is a passing fancy). I'm not very surprised. I think this is going to pan out not as people, from both sides of the aisle, expect. I think he probably was a "nice Muslim doctor", who was suffering from a delusion, maybe even a transient delusion, related to why he left Saudi Arabia, and the work he has done over the years, but he has been triggered by domestic events in Germany along with statements by social media influencers. Ultimately, the actions he took were deranged.

If you believe Rascist propaganada. But more likely a patsy, like the supposed Russian minorities rounded up after the FSB murder of Boris Nemstov. So now you are saying the Russians are justified in massacring civilians. Putin is doing that anyhow. The bloke was a spook, in charge of repressing anti-Communist groups in East Germany when in the KGB. The so-called suspect will apparently say whatever they want, then fall out of window. I notice you are very pro-Russian.

No surprise you say this. You probably also support CCP efforts to suppress minorities with the same quisling justification. Plus you've deliberately ignored 1989 to 2001 to continue your effort to support the policies of Russia and the Soviet Union and to denigrate the West. You know what happened during that perod. Assad is a murderous bastard, but there are people in the West that admire that trait.

I know. A Yankee doesn't need to lecture me about my history. You also should acknowledge that there are non-Han minorities on Taiwan, but curiously, you "forgot" to acknowledge that, implying you are a CCP supporter. and well as a Putin fanboi. How do you think Russians ended up living in the Donbas. I just told you......

Constantine's round up of Russian news, Week 50, 2024. eg potato shortages https://www.youtube.com/live/-AokQS-qUkc?si=boZOtq7Ckru2Ip0m

Russian healthcare is crippled. Before Putin's War of Aggression, about 90% of medicines and 80% of medical equipment was imported. Firstly, healthcare is mostly not subject to sanction. The exception is certain dual use equipment blocked by the US State Department, which means replacement medical lasers. But sanctions, and increased cost of shipping, means the availability of medicines has decreased. Early on, Putin put a challenge to Russian industry to backfill the supply gaps. They have failed to do so. On the one level, medicine inflation is quite modest; prices are up 4% in 2024. But Russian government healthcare procurement has declined. And the availability of medicines has fallen by about 10%. Before the war, most Russians used private medicine, mostly paid out of pocket. It was a growing industry, because State healthcare was so lousy (one of the memorable disasters of Russia's Pandemic, was when they decided to daisy chain ICU patients to save on ventilators. A leak incinerated the ward). When the war started, Putin prioritized the state for medical supplies. The private sector was all but dead. The decline in the availability of medicines but only a modest inflationary impact means that there has been increased imports of cheap generics, probably from India and China, and a much narrower range. Hospitals in the regions bordering Ukraine have been ordered to form combat brigades; essentiallt doctors and nurses are being co-opted as field medics, with a concomitant decline in the availability of medical services to citizens. Headway, a Russian Analytics company, has noted the biggest cuts in the Federal budget are in purchase of medicines to treat severe illnesses. ie. mortality rates from cancer and heart disease, will tick up. There is a 20% decline in these medicines. DSM believes the healthcare budget has been stripped to pay for increased armament spending. I recall that before the Aggression, Siemens had won the contract to overhaul the switchgear of the Russian Rail network. The network is still largely a decrepit Soviet era system. That work all stopped. Siemens won the contract because Russian companies were incapable of fulfilling the requirement. Russian army reserves, and most of the armament factories, thanks to WW2, are in the Far East. The Rail Network is absolutely critical to the integrity of Russia. It takes 6 days by train to get from Moscow to Vladivostok, and a brutal 118 hours to drive there. The road isn't mile up mile of shiney highway, but mostly potholed single lane, sometimes without a tarmac surface. In winter, the road is impassable. If the rail system fails, the Far East becomes cut off from Moscow. Obviously this affects the movements of goods and peoples, but it also affects the integrity of the Russian Federation. Then headlines like this: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-trains-derailment-mystery-1925131 Its not the work of Ukrainian special forces. Its indicative of a rail network under pressure.

The idea they are all "ethnic Russians", or Rus, is a myth. They are descendants of colonists. Like Germans in the Sudetenland and Poland. And cut from the same cloth it seems. The first waves came at the turn of the 20th Century, from the most impoverished parts of the Romanov Empire. In that Empire, Russians were top of the pile, so those colonists would have been less likely to have been Rus. Earlier, Catherine the Great settled Christians from the Ottoman Empire in the Donbas, which means Greeks, Syrians, Semites. Serbs were also brought in. But it was Soviet practices in the 50s and 60s that rubbed out any tribal memory. People were "encouraged" to speak Russian without an accent. donbas was a sparsely inhabited region. It was drilled into these later settlers that they were not Ukrainian nor Russian, simply "people of the Donbas". Those who are pro-Russian are feeling allegiances based on Soviet notions of citizenship. I take it you would support Chinese annexation of Taiwan, Singapore, parts of Thailand, because they are "ethnic Chinese" and that justifies it. Those in the East are descendants of mining colonists, and while Russian speaking, not all are "ethnically" Rus. 1991 Independance Referendum A solid majority voted to send a solid FU to Moscow, even in Crimea, 18% identify as "ethnically Russian". But the reality is Stalin did not selectively bus in Russians, he bussed in Soviet citizens, many of whom have forgotten their heritage. Putin has taken a cue from previous dictators. He has invented a history, like Himmler created the idea of a "Volk". Its about as fictious as Ivanhoe. And , like Hitler and Himmler, he has mislead a people, who are fearful of change, with some simple stories.

He suffered from chronic long term pain problems. This will be part of his defence, and likely it will be manslaughter on the grounds of diminished responsibility. I found the murder heinous/ But I have experience of pain management, and know there is no such thing as pain management. Someone who is in chronic pain is put on a pretty random cocktail of drugs, typically dihydrocodeine, diazopam and oral morphine. There is little science to it. Its a suck it see approach by the physicians. Sometimes, people will resort to largely unproven alternative therapies such as various cannabis preparations (and some people will be typing now how smoking weed helps them. Yes, it helps them, it might not help someone else), or therapies such as Yoga, which this chap was dabbling with in Hawai'i. Over time, the parts of the brain, that determine how we respond to pain, undergo vascular changes. Essentially how we react to pain changes, and people can become more delusional. That happened to my mother. 25 years ago, she was diagnosed and treated for cancer, putting it into remission. But she was left immuno-compromised. She's a retired nurse who enjoyed gardening. So she used antibiotics prophylactically. That may have contributed to what happened to her next. In 2017, she developed a sore back and a slight fever. After 2 weeks of trying to manage it herself (she has a high pain threshold), she finally saw a GP, a locum. The locum didn't bother to check her history, and prescribed her morphine to deal with the pack pain (when in fact she should have checked histroy, noted the fever, and sent her to A&E for an emergency scan and probable emergency surgery. A fever is obviously a sign of the body trying to fight an infection. Morphine depresses the immune response. Within 48 hours, she was paralysed from T6 down, and without bowel control. What had happened is what's called a spinal cord infarction or stroke; essentially an interuption of the blood supply to the spinal cord, brought about by a build up of pus, likely staphylocccus, through an intestinal lesion. Emergency spinal decompression and plates were put in, followed by 12 months of alleged rehab, which was mostly taken up waiting for a colostomy operation. Ever since then, she has been in constant pain. She has a high pain threshold, and likely many people, would not complain. Pain comes from the plates in her spine, spasms from her legs and pain from the colostomy. Overtime, probably from being a wheelchair user, she has developed transverse neck fractures, leading to pain and loss of mobility in her fingers/ For the first few years, she kept busy in the garden, from her wheelchair. She fell out of the wheelchair a few times, and had big strapping firemen pick her up. There was a certain amount of laughing it off. But in hindsight, the gardening assumeed a more manic nature. At the same time, my father was diagnosed with Alzheimers. He was a carer for her, and she cared for him. The gardening and caring for my dad were effective distractions from the pain, but the pain was increasing, as did her medication. In 2022, things went turbo. She was admitted to A&E 17 times in 9 months, through her dialling 999, and demanding something be done about her pain. She became more bedridden, the gardening was no longer a distraction. She manipulated the carers into giving her more pain medication than she should have been having (she was maxxed on dosages for everything, and the GPs were unwilling to try alternative because, as I said, pain management does not actually exist). Then my father passed away, so that distraction went away, compounded by the subsequent depression. She was due surgery to address a long standing problem with the colostomy and a hernia, but the consultant made a major mistake of erroneously telling her there was a change in date. Her physical health further declined. Thanks to GP's acquiescence in letter her overdose of diazopam, the drug became less and less effective. Overdosing on the dihydrocodeine lead to constipation, leading to more pain. A spiral downwards. Now she was no longer fit for surgery due to weight loss. More spiralling downwards This resulted in hospitalisation, where the delusions really happened. Delusions are a manifestation of the brain trying to deal with pain, to create a destraction. In her case, she was convinced the doctors were swanning around in gold, and had killed 40,000 people, and were fleeing to Nepal. And she was repeatedly raped on the ward by security. And she was helping the police to investigate corruption in the hospital, with the reward of a big screen TV. Eventually she was put in a private room, where the delusions, paranoia deepened, and assumed a more religious nature. Yeah, a pretty distressing time. Sje is now in a nursing home, her bills paid for by the NHS. Originally it was part of Discharge to Assess, to deal with pressure sores she had developed. But now, the NHS feel they cannot deliver the medical care she needs (pain medication) in her home, and this can only be done in a Nursing Home. Her health has improved, but the pain is still there. The nurses are very disciplined in not giving in to her. When she is tired, the rapey delusions come back. Local CID have been amazing. That's what pain can do to someone. Firstly, I have utter sympathy for the family of the murdered man, Brian Thompson. Nothing justifies his murder, and people attempting to lionise Mangione are either morons, scum or both. Mangione's behaviour in court seems deranged, delusional. He's going to be judged as incompetant, and this process will be over relatively quickly. He had apparently undergone surgery in an attempt to correct his spondylolisthesis, The condition is painful, the recovery from surgery (fitting plates) is very painful. Surgery is either spinal fusion or decompression. Success rates vary, but generally about 70% after 2 years. I imagine patients continue to suffer pain for years after surgery, and success is judged as to whether pain is less, rather than gone away. There are strict clinical criteria whether a patient can receive surgery, If surgery doesn't work, there appears to be no further treatment available. Spinal surgery has a complex recent history in the US. Firstly, there is no equivalent to NICE in the US; a body that determines treatment pathways based on evidence-based academic rigour and economic analysis. There are fragmented Federal taskforces, but its a mess. Costs have spiralled out of control. Between 1993 and 2003, the cost of spinal surgery in the US had increased 10 fold, driven by surgeons increasingly using instrumentation with dubious clinical efficacy. The media had started to issue calls to Congress to do something about these surgeons. The American Association of Neurological Surgeons was accused of changing from an Education Association to a Trade Association, existing only for the monetary benefit of its members. Over 70% of neurosurgery had become spinal surgery. Spinal fusion surgeries increased 15 times over a 5 year period. In a survey, 33% of patients being offered surgery didn't need it. Compared to other industries, margins for health insurance is relatively modest. United makes about 7%. Car makers are making typically 10-15%, and they make cars that catch fire, crash, kill kids etc. Insurance companies generally get a bad reputation through not doing something; not approving a course of treatment. In effect, Insurance companies are acting like NICE, but driven by economic analysis. In general, while there are emotive stories, such as little kids having to raise monet for cancer ops in the US, NICE gets its decisions right. When spinal surgeons in the US were effectively accused of profiteering from patients' misery, the Insurance companies stepped in, forcing physicans to look at more conservative treatments, such as epidurals and stenosis, before surgery, because they need to keep costs down. For some patients, I imagine that can be seen as the insurance companies stopping them getting the treatment they need, because the surgeon is giving them so many success stories. And then when you get the treatment, like Mangione, and you find out you are in the 30% it doesn't really work for, I can imagine a line of delusional thinking that starts along the lines of it wasn't effective, because it was delayed. And hence his expected, eventual defence. No doubt more details will emerge. Of course, the case generates a great deal of emotive discussion. Opprobrium is directed to the insurance industry, but its not them that are driving up costs. Its the insurers who have really been the driving force behind companion diagnostic tests; these are the diagnostic tests, mostly for cancer, that determine whether you can be prescribed (and reimbursed) for a particular line of expensive targeted therapy. Companion diagnostics used in clinical trials means that only the patients who will most benefit from that treatment receive it, an, importantly, those who won't. or might even be harmed by these therapies (which all tend to be cytotoxic) don't receive them. The net result is improvements in cancer treatment, because the right people are receiving the right therapy for their illness. More recently, the insurance companies have been looking at readmission rates. US hospital readmission rates are appalling. You are twice as likely to be readmitted hospital in the US than the UK. When people end up being readmitted, they often leave in a box. The insurance companies are telling hospitals if you don't improve your readmission rates, we'll cut the reimbursement rates. The result is the hospitals are investing more into community nursing; nurses visiting patients in their homes, and being able to track better their recuperation. But healthcare has become politicized. It should not be. Cradle to grave is not the Welfare State, its not the State going you a favour. Its the State's obligation in honouring its social contract with the people. The origin of the National Health Service lay in the Boer War, when the Army found out that 7 out of 10 volunteers were failing the basic medical exam. The nation was in poor health, and they knew there was a looming mechanised world war, and they were afraid of not having enough soldiers. Ultimately, the citizenry, through conscription, the draft, can be expect to fight and perhaps die, not in defence of their homesteads, but for the interests of their country. The least the State can do is to offer healthcare in return for your lives.

Years ago, in my professional capacity, I was interviewed by the National Geographic, as they investigated a particular death in Sierra Leone, in the midst of the Ebola epidemic (technically a Pandemic, as it after 3-4 countries in Africa, with cases in Spain and the UK). I have spent many years in CBRN and infectious disease diagnostics. The Ebola virus is one of a number of filoviruses. Tne main symptoms are a flu-like malaise. It causes a hemorrhagic fever, which means it interferes with the clotting action, and internal bleeding as capillaries spring leaks. In the early stages, it is treatable. The symptoms you describe are largely a Hollywood invention. In most cases, the victims pass away in their own <deleted> and piss. One of the issues of the epidemic of 10+ years ago was a lack of diagnostic capacity in the region. Liberia was a complete basket case. Sierra Leone had a reasonable reference lab in the capital, but beyond that, very little. The WHO operated a number of essentially jungle labs; people setting themselves up in sheds, warehouses, with some portable thermocyclers, inflatable glove boxes, but the testing volume was very very limited. 10 years ago, there were no commericially available tests for the Ebola virus. So foreign nations sent specialists in to help. Ebola being Ebola meant that experience was basically military. The UK sent in teams of Royal Engineers to build field hospitals in Sierra leone, but we offered no extra testing capacity to that nation, instead setting up a floating hospital offshore to support UK personnel. The South African Defence Force sent a mobile lab to Sierra Leone, and did a 3 month rotation, whuch was handy as I was able to speak to some of their team about what was going on. The Chinese also sent a mobile military lab to the country, with much fanfare. In Guinea, the EU was represented by French Army and Bundeswehr units, but I believe the Russian Army got people in country. In Liberia, USMC deployed to an abandoned crop research station. Basically how any of these militaries did the testing was a bit of a secret, but it doesn't take much to suppose what it was. USMC, at the time, had JBAIDS, a portable PCR system, which included Ebola targets. They also got hold of standard commercial thermocyclers, and ported over the Edgewood assays to those. Interestingly, because American civilians were there, and the history of Liberia, the JBAIDS Ebola assay needed FDA emergency authorisation. That meant they had to publish the test data, including simulant and live agent testing. Because of the completely broken down road network in Liberia, the Marine base needed to be supported by air. Which meant the fuel for the generators had to be airlifted in, every day. This fuel powered the offices, the canteens, the airconditioning, and the labs. At the time, all the reagents used needed -20 freezing storage. As it was, the might of the US could only manage about 100-150 Ebola tests a day, limited by the amount of storage space they had for reagents. The capacity of the other labs was no better (the South Africans kept really good diaries, and they worked like dogs to test). While about 30,000 cases were detected, with about 50% of them dying, in reality, 70% of Ebola infections were not picked up by the labs. Given the expected positivity test rate, there simply wasn't enough testing capacity in the region. I see they've had a bit of a Marburg outbreak in Uganda. Marburg is named after the German University where German scientists, in the 1970s, discovered the virus, and subsequently died (Soviet agents exhumed some of the bodies to obtain tissue samples, which provided enough material to eaponise Marburg virus). In 2 years, the 2014 ebola outbreak killed about 15,000 people, so about 150 people a week on average. In a few weeks, the mystery infection has killed 135, and 416 cases. A traveller arriving in Italy has been attributed ti having "Congo Disease". Based on symptoms presenting, ( fever, headache, cough, respiratory difficulties, anemia), the working hypothesis is Mycoplasma pneumoniae, a bacaterium. Some think this is a bit of a stretch, because the mortality rate is too high for this bug. Whats key is this outbreak is occurring in Panzi, which is very remote. That means deploying the needed specialists is difficult. It also limits the potential for transmission, though with at least one case already in Europe, one has to be vigilant.

One hopes that they have learned lessons. What's being seen now is the 100 year unfolding of past Empires, Ottoman, British and French. In Tunisia, they sort of worked it through after a couple of corrupt Presidents fled, and have a functioning democracy. Libya was a strange one; Gaddafi actually designed the country to have no government. Everything was done by essentially local councils, answerable to jim, the "Jamahiriya". Essentially, he made sure that the Army couldn't do to him, what he and the other young officers did to the previous government. Gaddafi could have died of old age in office, and the same outcome would have happened. In Afghanistan, what state functions there were, basically disappeared when the Soviets pulled out. Later on, Afghan diaspora tried to rebuild government based on little more than folk memory. Little wonder that was easy to crumble. In Iraq, the Americans thought they could have applied the 1945 Germany model to the country, when instead they shuld have applied the Japan 1945 model. In Syria, there is still a sort of functioning state, though Assad's stupidity and weakness meant it is severely corroded (he was not, as portrayed, a "Strong Man", with a powerful force of personality, he was a weak and vain man, easily manipulated. Rather pathetic really). At the moment, the likely successor is Abu Mohammed al-Golani. His interview with CNN was interesting; Bit early to take him at his word, but initial signs are promising, as is the news coming out of Homs. But he is certainly self-aware, he knows he is talking to the world, and I think he knows Syria will need the help of the world for many years; 90% of the population is below the poverty line. Syria was never one of the richest Arab states. It never really had the oil riches the illiterate Al Sauds enjoyed. But it has a long and sophisticated history. Unlike Al Zarqawi, he wasn't a former drug dealer-gangster, nor a theologian-academic like Al Baghdadi (who was probably more comparable to Pol Pot, given his academic-driven vision of Islamic rule. Al Baghdadi came from a religious family, apparently had a PhD from an Islamic University. Pol Pot studied in Europe, and became deeply involved in Maoist-Anarchist movements, and applied all of that to Year Zero Cambodia, in an utterly monstrous and depraved way). Al-Golani comes from a wealthy Damascus family. His Nom de Guerre portrays a bit of a chip on his shoulder about the Golan Heights, or maybe that, along with the dalliance with a turban, robes and BDUs, was all part of a theatrical act. maybe his interview is part of a theatrical act. He will be judged. But he might be irrelevant. It wasn't the HTH that took Damascus, but a group from south of the City. He's taking the plaudits, like a Charles de Gaulle marching into Paris did (or Chiang Kei Shek in Taipai). The first test is whether the current Prime Minister ends up swinging from lamp post, then we know the script that is being followed. There is little said about the whereabouts of the Syrian General Staff; these were men promoted not because of competance or military prowess, but because of sychophancy, which would have been measured in what brutal method they could apply to kill terrorists/their own people. They also would have been promoted based on trust, and affiliated to the Alawites. Is there a Syrian Khalifa Haftar, with access to the good Syrian military kit. While the rebels are appealing to members of the old regime to remain at their posts, the news from Sednya prison might be a portant. Allegedly, doors to sections were sealed shut, and ventilation turned off, before the prison guards fled. Hollywood's version of the previous capture of Damascus by a loose Arab alliance who all hated each other

I suppose like all those Free Poles went back home when Lech Walesa was elected. They were asylum seekers as well, changed the character of whole towns in the English Midlands, forcing local people to eat smoked pork sausages. The nerve of it..... Wait, they didn't. Neither did Gregory down at the local Football Supporters Club moaning about what Stalin did to his beloved Ukraine. The couple running the local Indian restaurant didn't go back to Uganda after Idi Amin fled to Saudi Arabia. Many Syrians will of course return home. Why would they. Britain is full of people who they don't know, never met, but who hate them anyhow. Many will stay, tough it out, as the UK is now their home, just like Nigel Farage's Hugenot ancestors did. My Thai wife is firmly convinced that the majority of British people hate foreigners, especially Asians. Not sure where she got that idea from.