sonicdragon

Standing in front of us is the greatest transfer of wealth in history. When the dust settles, those holding the gold will make the rules.

ohmygosh! does that mean i will be even more hen-pecked?

That depends on how long you will inhabit the planet for ! The problem with these prognostications, is that it *could* happen next year - or maybe next century. My guess is somewhere in the 5-15 year range.

The PTB have a knack of cobbling things together to maintain the status quo. Unfortunately it only makes the problem worse in the future.

Remember "Mr Yen" - the man who was probably the most influential single person on Japanese exchange rate policy in recent history ? Eisuke Sakakibara - he was an official of the MoF, not the BoJ. I suspect that the BoJ are keen on weakening the Yen, since it could be a very effective tool for further monetary easing. However the MoF beurocrats and politicians may be fearful of failure or unintended consequences. Never underestimate how conservative Japanese politicians can be (even the so-called liberals), especially in the face of being "told what to do" by the upstarts at the BoJ with PhDs from Harvard etc.

As for the THB/SET, it's not something I follow very much. The economy may be export dependent, but the current account is in surplus. This should naturally put upward pressure on the THB. Meanwhile, there are worries about the USD and Euro - so it wouldn't surprise me to find some hot money looking for escape and some of that could flow into stocks in Thailand.

The *really* amazing thing about the Nikkei is that it was at 39,000 in 1989 !

And so why won't the BoJ intervene with some meaningful measures unlike

the red herring from yesterday ? Look at the Nikkei today !

One reason is that the BOJ does not have the legal authority to do so. Exchange rate policy falls under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Finance, and so intervention requires the collaboration of both agencies, which have historically been quite adversarial/territorial. In essence the situation would have to become extraordinarily dire before they act. That point may well be approaching, but history teaches us that they won't do it when everyone is expecting it.

Dragon, take a wild guess which (out of three) is our really beloved bank but J.B. has its limitations too. trading in slightly exotic/illiquid assets is too sluggish for my liking and any indicative prices a trader reads from a Bloomie or Reuters screen are of no interest to me. in this respect nobody beats UBS in obtaining tradeable prices/volumes within minutes. with CS we are still because of a long relationship, private connections and some special services which other banks do not offer.

Yes, they've all got their limitations, stemming from the fact that they are all basically crooks in a crooked industry. You can't beat JB for having access to little-known CHF private placements but for for trading/brokerage, I do a lot business with GS of whom I've also been an employee so I find them very easy to deal with. Probably the biggest crooks of all though !

These days I'm doing less and less in the US, even from the short side. I wish there were a SGD denominated short US equities ETF out there - it would save a lot of hassles with F/X options.

I've been sitting on a Diapason agricultural commodities fund for three years now. That, plus some precious metals funds, physical gold and two alternative energy funds form the core of my long terms investments. I still work, so luckily I don't need current income from investments.

I'm probably moving back to the UK later this year, as my kids will start primary school there next year, so dealing with that actually takes up most of my time now

What do you guys think of buying "paper gold" at HSBC?

Pros & cons?

http://www.hsbc.com....pwscmd=cmd_init

For short term trading/hedging, I think it's fine. But for long term investing / disaster protection etc, I would only consider physical. If governments tried to confiscate private gold, you can almost guarantee that paper gold issued by banks would be gone instantly. HSBC is a sound bank overall but it is at the centre of the supposed intra-day manipulation in London. It's also "interesting" that they don't sell physical gold in HK. Beware of the gold ETF GLD. They do not own the physical asset - PHYS is much better and a good alternative to bank paper gold.

nam do u buy from a particular shop in bangkok? i am very paranoid of being ripped off. thanks.

If you want internationally tradeable gold bullion bars or coins then go to HK or Sing and buy them from a bank - in HK I have personally used Hang Seng Bank and Bank of China, and in Sing I have used UOB.

Not sure if the supposed intra-day gold manipulation has got much coverage in this thread (I don't fancy reading through 104 pages) but here's a practically-oriented article that also appeared on ZH (de-rigueur reading IMHO) that highlights the "problem":

http://www.skoptions...-gold-fund.html

Everyone knows that gold has performed very well in the last 10 years. Detractors naturally and understandably point to cherry-picking the starting point (naturally they would prefer 1980 as the start !) but anyway, one point of this article is: if you had shorted gold every day at the morning fix and covered at the afternoon fix you would be up 200% in the last 10 years. Quite remarkable really.

Bangkok Bank has a London branch, though I doubt you can do what you want.

Hi Doc ! I missed you too. Yes, it's been a while since I inhabited these parts. Just on vacation for 3 months, hence a bit of time on my hands.

Indeed, dealing with "many" banks does have it's hassles, though I sleep better because of it. Having worked in banks and other financial institutions most of my adult life, in various roles from trading to internal audit, I have an unshakable distrust of them *all*, including your beloved CS, haha (worked for CSFP/FB in the late 80s / early 90s - actually it was my first job !). If I had to choose one I distrust the least it would be Julias Baer. All my assets and general banking business is presently split among 7 institutions in 4 jurisdictions. Your arrangements seem pretty solid.

The problem with bank failure is not such a problem if it's isolated - the problem could be in the case of a systemic failure precipitated by: the implosion of China, a big war (or nuclear event) in the Middle East, hyperinflation in the US, a G7 sovereign default, or something else entirely that no one expects or is talking about - a black swan event or whatever. Who knows what's going to happen in the next 5 years let alone the next 50 ? And it's the next 50+ that I'm thinking about, for my kids futures.

I can't help but chuckle at your comparison of MAS/SEC. The SEC make themselves look like choirboys (and that would be a flattering comparison) without any help whatsoever from MAS ! The US regulatory enviironment is a shambles these days. Buiter was spot on when he talked about "cognitive regulatory capture" a couple of years ago. Shame he sold out and works for C now !!!

I don't remember you being much of a fan of gold (other than via your wife's jewelry). When did you start buying 999 bars ?

CS 999 bars are available in Singapore to clients of CS.

The combination of a Swiss bank in Singapore is a good one as far as safety is concerned. Personally I'm quite cautious in this regard. I only keep original documents in my box, and I spread my dealings among many banks in several jurisdictions.

I'd avoid Thai bars unless you are 100% sure you will be selling them in Thailand.

FWIW, I dropped my wallet in the street in HK about 10 years ago, while running to my apartment building to avoid the rain. ~18,000 HK$ inside - about 100,000 baht at the time. 2 hours later I got a call from my bank - someone had handed it in to the police, on the other side of town, and the police had contacted my bank due to my credit card being inside. I'd already cancelled my cards, but when I went to collect it, all the money was still there !

It's almost certainly differential settlement, as Bruce said. How soon after the garage being built did the crack start to appear ? About 6 months ? Is the crack wider at the top than the bottom ? If so, then basically, what's happening is the footings of the garage next to the house are riding on the foundations of the house and so that end of the garage remain fixed relative to the house, but the other end of the garage is sinking relative to the house, that's why the crack is wider at the top.

There's is very little you can do about it, other than having the garage rebuilt using the same type and similar depth foundations as the main house and even then you can get a similar problem though *much* less pronounced. For a single story extension (garage, kitchen etc) most people don't have proper foundations because of the added cost. The simple solution is just have the gap filled in from time to time. If you've got a false ceiling in the garage then expect to have problems with that too (it will move away from the main structure over time), but this might not become apparent for a year or so. Another problem to look out for is where the roof of the garage meets the main house - depending on how that was done, it might need remedial attention (possibility of collapse). Eventually, you'll probably have to rebuild the garage. We had exactly this problem with a kitchen extension a few years back - eventually it got so bad that we had it rebuilt. It's possible to have proper foundations done in-situ, but it's very expensive - cheaper and much easier just to rebuild.

Agree with edwardandtubs that most ready cooked Thai food is unhealthy. Another thing that worries me is the propensity to re-use cooking oil over and over again.

My biggest problem with Thai food is that I eat too much. I'm sure everyone knows that Thais generally eat little, but often. I just can't do that. Well, I can do the often part. but I just don't feel right unless I'm full. Not over-full - just full. So I can easily end up eating 5 big meals a day. My solution to this is a twice-daily workout, which is fine when I have the time, but if I go through a busy period then I'll easily put on 5Kg in a month, and my only solution to that, is to cut out meals and just eat twice or three times a day. I know it's considered bad, but at those times I always skip breakfast and sometimes lunch as well, and just drink water but I make sure I work out twice - early in the morning, then at lunch time.

To the OP: My wife is the same. I don't shop with her at all if I can avoid it these days. It was nice in the beginning since it saved money, and it's still nice today for the same reason, but I just can't be involved with it any more.

We spent a lot of time in Hong Kong. There are only two supermarket chains there. She knew which items could be bought cheaper at the "wet markets" which was most of the fruit, veg and meat. For the rest, she would know exactly how much the price of each thing we needed to buy was at each of these supermarket chains, and went to both on the same day to get the cheapest overall price. On occasion, when the price of a certain thing had changed in one place, she would not buy it until she had checked the price in the other place ! If she ever found that the price in one was cheaper than in the other, but she had unknowingly paid the higher price, she would be quite angry about it for the rest of the day. When we decorated our house in Thailand last year she spent days on end driving round all different stores to find where to get a certain thing at the cheapest price. We came to Thailand for a month during the summer with the intention of buying all the materials and having the work done during that month. After a month she still hadn't even ordered all the paint and tiles, let alone new bathroom fittings It still wasn't finished at Christmas ! In fact we just had last of the curtains fitted last week - almost 13 months to the day after it started. And it's not a particularly big house.

I wouldn't describe the Yukuza, the mafia or the triads as street gangs.

The triads are a respectable brotherhood established to protect the common man from the ravages of corrupt government officials, and their patron diety, Lord Gwan, stands for justice and honour. He's also the patron diety of the police.

I imagine someone familiar with street gangs could get themselves a chopping in any quarter of Bangkok within half an hour - just like in Malaysia. I don't see why you would want to go looking for trouble, though.

People used to tell me that they felt very safe in HK. I didn't, Apart from all the drunken foreigners in Wanchai - although a hundred posters are already drafting responses saying -try walking down Nottingham High Street at closing time, and you'r right, Wanchai is still much safer than most British city centres - I also felt at risk walking past the discos in Mongkok. Teenage louts are the same everywhere, they have the same things to prove, they take the same drugs, and they carry the same knives... And I am sure that Thailand is very similar.

SC

I've lived in HK as an expat with all the trimmings and also as a local (some of the in-laws have been there for several generations). 13 years in total, on and off. I'm a british born part-chinese. I've lived in tip-top accomodation on the south side of HK island, mid levels and Happy Valley to 5th/6th floor walk-ups in Kowloon City and Shamshuipo. I've never felt threatened in HK nor encountered any street violence personally, though obviously I know it happens, but it's not indescriminate for the most part unless you were just very very unlucky. My in-laws business has to deal with triads, but so do most. I would not say they are very respectable, maybe 50+ years ago, but not now. These days they control most of the prostitution, drugs, illegal gambling etc as well as "security". Now, if you're a young asian guy and go looking for trouble you will easily find it. If you haven't seen it, I recommend Made in Hong Kong as a down to earth movie that gives a fairly unsensational account of what it's like for the young and disenfranchised in HK - it may be 10-15 years old now, but I think it's still relevent and certainly more realistic than Infernal Affairs, or a myriad of other big budget triad movies (though Infernal Affairs I & II were very good, and entertaining in their own way).

Email the embassy as you have very rare circumstances and fully explain your situation possibly fax them also you will get a reply.

Thanks. Will try that.

Leave the Mrs behind or grin and bear it. Doubt they would be prepared to alter their standard procedures.

It's difficult, since it's her business trip, not mine ! Me and the kids were just going for fun.

Thanks for the replies, but maybe I didn't explain properly. If we had waited until returning then the same scenario would have occurred, since we'll be going to Taiwan next month, and China/HK again in October.

Hi all

My wife applied for her UK settlement visa a few days ago.

She contacted the visa application centre today about getting her passport back, since we are going to Hong Kong next week and they told her that the application would be suspended until she gives the passport back to the Embassy ! This is going to cause some difficulty since we will be in HK and China for 3 weeks and when we get back to thailand we will leave again a week later.

We travel quite regularly so what should we do in our situation ?

Thanks

SD

Just submitted my wife's application.

Does anyone know if the swimpark on the roof of Central/Bangna is currently open ?

Anyone been recently ? What's it like for kids (3-4 year olds) ?

Dupe

settlement visa is a Vaf4 . also you will need a copy of her blue book,

Do you mean the tabien baan / household registration ? It is not mentioned here:

http://www.vfs-uk-th.com/images/SpouseAndCivilPartner.pdf

?

Haha. And one list says "one" passport sized photograph and the other says "two" ! ! !

Thanks 7b7

There is something else odd about this checklist:

http://www.ukvac-th.com/images/Settlement-Spouse.pdf

It says to bring a completed VAF2 form - but that's the wrong form, isn't it ? ? ? It should be VAF4 ! You'd think they would have that right, wouldn't you ?