mumbu

Rubbish.. the new regulations do not apply to Ford they are a BOI approved project . and they are going on with the plan.

Your post confirm my suspicion: you do not know what you are talking about. Ford suspended its investment precisely because of the new regulation. Ford definitely a compny with long-term interests in Thailand and has a sofisticated operation over thre involving interaction with other businessess including transportation operations. New regulations threatens to jeopirdise this infra-structure and that is the reason for suspension. I am afraid it is all too subtle for you. Now the idea that a new regulation is just a simple clarification of the previous one is just ridiculuos. Speaking about "great commotions", yes, it resulted in "great commotion" among many businessess operating in Thailand,

including even very big ones as Ford. It was, I believe one of the reasons for Devakula demise. So much for a little clarification of previous rules. Regarding "great commotion" in America on Americans loosing jobs in Thailand, this is absolutely ridiculuos, especially for anyone living in America. It is something like to say that there is a great commotion in

Thailand because many Thais loose their jobs in Iceland.

By the way, I want to clarify one issue. There is a lot of talk about "the clash" between US and Thailand. There is no such a clash. It is something like to say that there is a clash

between a warship and one man canoe. The result of such a clash should be clear for everyone: there would be no wet spot left of canoe. So, there is no such a clash.

What is happening here is a deliberate, zynical and I have to say quite successful effort by the junta and forces behind it to ignite the xenofobic and nationalistic feelings among a certain part of Thai society. In other words, bring the worst into being in a vulnerable part of Thai population. Junta needs to create a certain atmosphere to realize their goals which have nothing to do with the interests of the Thai society as a whole.

Regarding the second issue. I saw an interview on Bloomberg with a current finance minister where he was asked the question about this regulation (regulation on big retail outlets). At that time the first draft of the regulation was not approved by the government. The concern was exactly the one I raised here: the role of local authorities

in decision making regarding the new retail outlets. The response of the finance minister was that this point was the reason of nonapproval of original draft. The finance minister emphasized that in final version, there will be simply fixed regulations added regarding the location of new outlets. He added that he has not seen the new version yet.

To my great surprise the act was approved by the government two days after this interview pretty much in original version. Thus, either finance minister lied or he was not even informed about the situation with the act. In any case, even your finance minister publicly agreed that concerns expressed in my original post are quite legitimate.

Damage to billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, caused by Moscow thieves, exceeded 800,000 rubles.

Kommersant

He was awarded an honorary degree of Doctor of Economic Sciences. *with a major in Corruption and a minor in Tax Evasion*

- Kommersant (Russia)

May I ask you, Sriracha John, with all due respect:

Are you inhabitant of the Sriracha Zoo?

you see how economy is great. instead of buying all those items in Singapore expensive shops, you come to spend your cash in thailand.

but please dont forget Mc donalds as you were very concerned with them yesterday.

and a small tip since you are in the Pharma trade. get your medical drugs as well as they are so cheap in thailand.

have a great hiliday in thailand we are so happy to have you.

Please, also do not forget pirated DVD's. Thet are not of great quality and can be confiscated upon your return to Singapore but they are much cheaper in Thailand

the dooms day brigade just does not wish to learn.

Thailand is not seeking a short term speculative investment. it is seeking long term dedicated investors to add growth.

thailand is offering long term investors very good conditions through the BOI.

Thailand does not want small time investors that can not make it where they come from and are coming to Thailand to compete with the local business.

I am wondering whether you understand what are you talking about. I will give you only two well-known examples.

1. New government regulations regarding foreign companies operating in Thailand: spooked Ford which suspended 1 billion dollars investment in Thailand (US dollars not bahts). Would you call it short term speculative investment? Or may be it is a long term dedicated investment to add growth? Which of the two?

2. Recent government (still to be approved by the King, I believe)act regarding restrictions on big foreign retailors operating in Thailand. So, what is wrong with Carrefour? I enjoyed it in Pattaya and now in Phuket (wish I had one in my home town).

More importantly, Thai people love it! Trade is great! Many good, well-paid jobs for Thai people. What is wrong with that?

New regulation requires approval by local authorities for new outlets for big retailors like Carrefour. Did you say that khun Thaksin was corrupted? Do not you think that this provision open new, lucrative venues for those corrupted local burocrats?

Deposed Thai PM Gains Degree, Loses Cash

BANGKOK, Thailand — Thailand's globe-trotting deposed leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, garnered an academic honor by visiting Moscow this week, but lost thousands of dollars and his passport when he stopped at a McDonald's in the Russian capital.

Thaksin, who has been living in exile since a coup last year ousted him as prime minister, had entrusted his briefcase to an aide sitting at a nearby table as they had a meal on Monday, said his lawyer, Noppadol Pattama, in a phone interview with The Associated Press in Bangkok.

When the party got up to leave, they found that Thaksin's briefcase, with his passport and about $9,200 worth of money in U.S. and Russian currency, had been snatched.

Thaksin was in Moscow to accept an honorary degree in science from the Plekhanov Russian Economic Academy.

Noppadol said the Thai Embassy in Moscow had helped Thaksin, issuing him a new passport and other temporary travel documents.

Thai government agencies are not usually so helpful to Thaksin. Several months after Thaksin was toppled, the Thai Foreign Ministry canceled his diplomatic passport, which former prime ministers are normally allowed to carry as a special privilege.

Thaksin made a fortune in the telecoms business before entering politics, and has been living the life of an idle billionaire since losing his post, traveling between a residence in London and various countries in Asia. He is currently seeking to buy the English soccer team Manchester City.

- Associated Press

O'K. So I was right: it is a Plekhanov institute. By the way, it is a serious, respectable organization. I am just wondering whether it can give a pause to at least one of khun Thaksin bashers: they like to present a man as a kind of malicious clown.

What about thinking about him as a honorable, smart man with great vision for his own country who was deposed by mediocre midgets fighting for their privileges? Why prestigious Academic institutions honor him? Why businessmen around the world show so much respect for him? Why leading agencies want to have interviews with him? Why midgets in BKK are afraid of couple of his calls to community radio stations? America, China, Japan, Singapore and now Russia. Quite a spectrum.

He is welcome everywhere...

Maybe he went to Russia to drum up support from the Mafia who are a force to be reckoned with now in Thailand.

For someone who knows Russia as well as I do, it is absolutely not surprising that he was robbed. Surely, he was an object of special attention from local mafia the moment he stepped on sacred Russian land. Thus, I do not believe that it is something self-organized.

By the way " Prekanov institute" should be "Plekhanov institute" I believe . To give you the idea that I know what I am talking about.

nu shto. shkazhiti tadkda.

nichego

Maybe he went to Russia to drum up support from the Mafia who are a force to be reckoned with now in Thailand.

For someone who knows Russia as well as I do, it is absolutely not surprising that he was robbed. Surely, he was an object of special attention from local mafia the moment he stepped on sacred Russian land. Thus, I do not believe that it is something self-organized.

By the way " Prekanov institute" should be "Plekhanov institute" I believe . To give you the idea that I know what I am talking about.

the dooms day brigade just does not wish to learn.

Thailand is not seeking a short term speculative investment. it is seeking long term dedicated investors to add growth.

thailand is offering long term investors very good conditions through the BOI.

Thailand does not want small time investors that can not make it where they come from and are coming to Thailand to compete with the local business.

As for comapring Thaialands militery govermant with other countries in the region.

Sinagpore is a well known democracy. they realy give total freedom to citizens. and they allow people to speak out against the govermant.

Vietnam is yet another free country with no coruption and a stable democratic rule

Cambodia, burma, laos are in a great state too when it concerns "investors confidence"

and less we forget China. where forign investors are IP protected and the goverment is a free democracy.

Thailand is open for investment, however many speculators and short time investors are pissed of that the Thai goverment is not allowing them to invest as they see fit in thaialand.

the world is nearing the explosion of the liquidity bubble and the Thai goverment has to protect the Thais not the speculators who wish to rip the country off.

At least in my post I do not compare political systems but just economic policies. Those who are currently in charge in Thailand seems do not understand that the world around them is changing very rapidly. There is a very feirce competition

for investment in the region and Thailand is loosing to its neigbors due to various factor but including economic policies.

Those who are talking about the bubble pretend that they know how stock markets around the world are going to behave.

well, they do not. Neither do I. But most of the serious economists predict that very rapid economic growth in China and India

is hear to stay for many years to come. This is the crucial factor for the region, if not the world in general. Thailand is not positioning itself right in this new economic environment. The competion in the region will be bloody intense. Look at Malaysia.

There was a talk about the Iskander project jointly with Singapore. Cooperation between Malaysia and Singapore traditionally is very difficult but Malaysian government is doing its best to make the project successful despite all prejudices and difficult history. Look at Thailand. It seems Sonthi is doing what he can to ruin traditionally friendly and mutually beneficial relationships between two countries: staring with we want our Thai satellites back and ending up with ridiculuos statement that Singapore is spying on Thailand using former Shin's facilities. With this type of "leaders" Thailand has no future.

Here is a complete statement of BOT from their home page. It is quite clear that internal conditions in Thailand continue to deteriorate while external conditions are excellent. To understand what is happening in Thailand one should compare the situation and policies of that country with their neighbours: Malaysia, Phillipines and Vietnam. The economy, stock markets and currencies are booming while Thailand stock market is the worst performer in the region. The external conditions are the same for the whole region. Thailand lagging far behind its neigbours due to policies of junta and their government.

I also saw several days ago an interview with the current Thai finance minister and he confirms what is stated in BOT statement: visible deterioration in consumer confidence, investments and internal consumption.

Regarding the numbers of TOT: I am sorry, but I do not believe that the number of tourists got increased. Nor in overall estimates. There will be very hot summer in BKK (and may be beyond) and not only because of the high tempreture.

There will be no referendum on constitution and elections. Junta will declare the situation unstable and unsuitable for elections and fire the current government. Sonthi most probably will assume the duties of PM. Tourism will collapse and the things get bloody. Unlike what many predict, the courts will move swiftly on khun Thaksin and his family trials, major political parties most probably will be disbanded. The situation in deep South will continue to deteriorate which will raise the possibilities of East Timor scenario with external interference and scary possible outcomes.

Time frame: May -August till planned retirement of Sonthi in September.

Expats: prepare themselves for a ride (with growing xenofobic mood) under conditions of growing chaos and instability.

Ms. Suchada Kirakul, Assistant Governor of the Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand, announces that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met today to assess the latest economic developments and trends in order to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance. The main issues discussed were as follows.

Overall domestic demand continued to soften due to a slowdown in private expenditure and fragile confidence. Although the government accelerated spending, government expenditure had yet to achieve the target. Meanwhile, exports continued to expand favorably in line with global economic conditions and the ability of exporters to adapt to the current environment. However, there remained a risk to export growth should the global economy slow down going forward.

Inflation continued to moderate as expected. The MPC thus assessed that despite higher global oil prices, inflationary pressure would remain low due to a slowdown in domestic demand.

The MPC viewed that, with subdued inflationary pressures, monetary policy could be eased to facilitate economic growth, while inflationary pressures remained manageable. The MPC therefore decided to lower the 1-day repurchase rate by 0.5 per cent from 4.00 per cent per annum to 3.50 per cent per annum, effective today. The current rate was deemed suitable in ensuring the inflation target and supporting economic expansion.

Bank of Thailand

23 May 2007

For further information, please contact: Mr. Trirat Thanaprakopkorn Tel: +66 (0) 2283 6186 e-mail: [email protected]

All previsously ousted Thais behave gentelmanly, Thaksin is the first.

The coup makers expected Thaksin to follow unspoken rules and customs - don't stir up shit, wait out, come back and sit quetly, you'll have enough money for the rest of your life.

Plus,

you are bulshiting as usual. Junta tries to indite khun Thaksin and pretty much all his family without having any ground (as you

said yourself). They try to dessolve major political parties, they disbanded supreme court. What kind of rules you are talking about? I will tell you: you know nothing abput Thailand and reading websites and "Googling" every two minutes does not make you a real observer.

just a bunch of bulshit.

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

Highdiver, You hit the nail on the head! I have posted multiple times on this subject but most people here just don't get it. When the hedge funds decide to get out of their investments and change their baht back in to euros and U.S. dollars then the Thai baht will do an absolute backflip. People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. A good example was the democratic debate in south carolina yesterday, the moderator asked john edwards and hillary clinton the same question about what they would do to institute some oversight on the hedge fund industry if elected and both candidates completely dodged the question and talked about something else. The next question in the debate was directed toward chris dodd (a senator from conneticut that the hegde fund industry has in its back pocket) and you could see senator dodd sweating bullets thinking that he might be getting the same question on the hegde fund industry, but sadly the moderator seeing that he was not going to get a straight answer about hedge funds from these candidiates, changed the line of questioning and you could see the immediate relief on chris dodds face. Just as Jesus overturned the carts of the moneychangers in the temple, we need someone in power with a strong loyal following to turn over the carts of the hedge funds and watch as the cockroaches scrurry, if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

if you have proof that this is actually happening, then, let us all see it. otherwise, all this conspiracy stuff is old stuff, and the only thing it does is make foreigners more anti-american.

on the other hand, since you seem to think this is true, perhaps you can tell us all what thailand can do to stop this so-called conspiracy being implemented by evil rich americans?

your conspiracy theories are making it so that win or lose, america will look like the one to blame.

jesus, can't someone in this world take the blame for something THEY did for once?

yeah. maybe I am naive about all the evil in this world. so, please enlighten me. but some more constructive thought would help instead of just all the accusations. thank you.

Nick, First of all there is no conspiracy theory going on here, hegde funds and arbitragers have been with us for a while now and their size, strength, and political clout has grown into something that would make the tabacco industry evious. Secondly, this is not a uniquely american phenomonon there are many european hedge funds manipulating the thai market as well as many other markets in asia and elseware. Last week on 60 minutes (or maybe it was 20-20) there was a segment on just this, and senator grassley who had the guts to put forward some rather tame hegde fund legislation on the senate floor was interviewed and said that within 10 minutes of introducing his bill on the senate floor he was contacted by multiple parties(both other senators and lobbyists) to kill the bill. In this same segment it was made clear that on multiple occasions senator dodd has killed similiar bills and then 60 minutes went on to say that dodd recieved over 5 million dollars from the hedge fund industry in his last campaign. These are the hard cold facts my friend, I only wish it was just a bad dream or some bogus conspiracy theory. By the way americans are not to blame but instead are victims of these hedge funds as well. Perhaps when the valuation on the baht does reverse dramatically and some journalist can lay out just how all this occured, then perhaps you will not be so naive the next time around.

This is all an absolute bullshit. According to your "theory" all these hedge funds are in conspiracy against Thailand. The question: why Thailand? Why not , say, Malaysia? Badawi (prime-minister of Malaysia) in his recent interview to CNBC said that he see absolutely no signs of speculation with Malaysian ringit. Malaysia faces the same problems as Thailand (including currency appreciation and slow down in economy) but try to handle it in completely different manner: by encouraging investment in their economy. The economist in the beginning of this thread is putting it absolutely right.

You guys, simply have no idea what you are talking about. There certain global processes which effect all emerging markets from Slovakia to Brasil, from Turkey to Colombia. No one country (except for may be Venezuala) did inflict so much damage to

itself as Thailand did after the coup.

The anti-semitic comment of Plus in this thread did not surprise me at all. Of course, I noticed from other threads that he pretends to be in the know about Thailand but his views and estimates are suspiciosly projunta and actually are not accurate in many cases. I would not take such an "observer" seriously. It is clear that Banya needs current government to go to avoid elections in near future and he is preparing the ground for this (of course, he is in position to dismiss current PM without any additional coup). Thus, this government should go, there will be no referendum on new constitution and Banya will try to strengthen his grip on power. This has nothing to do with Thaksin. Just another general want to become a dictator. Whether it is going to happen, remains to be seen. But I am sympathetic with Moby analysis.

This is the most cowardly way of creating civil unrest and senseless violence: bombing!

I wish their families of these bombers one day be killed the same way by someone they really do not know. Nothing else will make them understand the crazyness of their acts. How stupid, how cowardly... and what do they reach???

You are asking for the whole scale massacre of innocent people, including women and children, to teach a lesson to a handful of evil people. I believe that it is people like you who are responsible for global terror.

Do you not have the sense to realise that it is the spilling of innocent blood that makes impressionable youths join terrorist groups? Bush's war on terror, and all the other world leaders who have joined the bandwagon have done nothing more than create more terrorists.

Yes, we must fight terrorism. But vindictive and indiscriminate acts of violence that you call for are not the way to fight terrorism. On the short term, you need good intelligence to wipe out terrorists while minimising civilian casualties. But only efforts at understanding the root causes of conflicts, and tackling them will provide lasting solutions to any conflict.

People like you, who spew forth vitriolic hatred are a blotch on the face of humanity.

yes amigo im sure if you held them in your loving arms,let them suckle your tit, run your nurturing finger through thier hair,and tell them how you want to understand them. They will forget that God told them to kill you and It will stop raining blood in some part of your feeble little world. Or maybe they will bite it off throw a tire around you and let your innocent cilvilians light it on fire.

There's is only one case of that I know of where a serious terrorist group was put down using the kind of violence that you and dude007 are clamouring for, that being the Sikh insurgency in Punjab.

I don't know where you are from, but if you are from Britain, you would know that the IRA terrorists were defeated through dialogue and not through war. And as far as God telling people to kill, Bush invaded Iraq because God told him to, and more than 600,000 innocent civilians have been massacred as a result.

-------------------------------

Bush is not the problem. He is just a symptom. The people who are the real problem are much bigger, much much smarter, international and very dangerous.

Bush is a blithering idiot...

May I respectfully suggest that you guys left Bush alone. Bush has absolutely nothing to do with what is happening in Thailand. Your permanent reference to Bush shows your single mindness and stupidity. Muslim terrorists, JI and Wahabi arabs (who finance this campaign) are to blame. I said it before and I say it again: what we see in Thailand is a Chechenization of a religious conflict. The only solution to this problem is cutting all funds coming to deep South from wahabi arabs (and we are talking about hundred of millions of dollars here), total ban on religious schools and universities in deep South which promote wahabism and establishing total military control over the deep South which will put terrorists on the run . It is not true that military solution is not possible. Russians (with their corrupt and inefficient army-do you see any analogy here?) were able to supress Chechen separatist movement and stop terrorist activity on Russian territory outside Chechnya.

Regarding the study of roots of muslim terrorism, it may be a valid theoretical task but in practical terms organizers of random killings cross the line and should be stoped by all means (meaning killing them all). While some can argue that this is not an efficient tactics, one can count some success in places like Afganistan (where Taliban could be finished by now if not safe haven they have in Belujistan) and Somalia.

blam, you must like it here and have been successful to have stayed for 22 years, 20 rai on Phuket is worth more than the total amount of money you have put into the local economy in your entire stay, I'm also guessing that you took some money out as well so obviously the economy has been good for you.

I just dont see a problem with a 5% or so rise in GDP, especially when measured against regional economies a 1/4 of the size.

In terms of companies, I can suggest some very successful Global partners manufacturing in Thailand including Samsung and Philips just off the top of my head, In regards to people like Toshiba, Sanyo and Sharp - those products are generally not as popular as the Korean products are nowadays, so are losing market share to the likes of LG and Samsung at quite a rate, I don't see how Thailand can be blamed for that.

It makes no difference to me if Thailand becomes a powerhouse or not, I would strongly disagree that a minimum of 5% growth over the last 5 years whilst weathering the Tsunami, Bird Flu, a coup etc... is a sign of a sick economy.

You do not need to be an economist to understand that Thailand is doomed if it continues in the current direction. It suffices to ask

the following question: What Thailand can produce that China cannot?

The answer is nothing. China can produce anything that Thailand does but cheaper, much cheaper...

Thaksin tried to put Thailand in the direction of Japan, Singapore, South Korea etc. Did he have a chance? I do not know but the mentality of present leadreship of Thailand simply leave no room for successful future...

Excellent post Mr Blam..

It is absolutely clear for me that this is another attack of Muslim terrorists from the South. One should be a total idiot to suggest that any Thai buddist is capable of doing this. One should be an absolute idiot without any understanding of Thai mentality to suggest that Thaksin (or even junta) behind these new blasts. I am afraid that the "Chechenization"

of Thai conflict is on the way..

I am afraid much more to come...

Things aren't always as black and white as some would have you to believe.

Link to article in the Nation

Mai Krap

I find it hard to tell wether you are genuinely concerned about the the spin being put on the problems in the south by the likes of analyst Dr. Abuza and others, or are you just another yellow belly apologist for the Islamists in Pattani!

You offer much to debate, but really all you end up doing is confusing the issue by clouding disparate problems, and like the islamists you try to make one problem seem to be something else. Your anti-spin of the situation in Pattani seems to come from some innate sense that only you are right and no one outside of the area could possibly see things more clearly and objectively than you yourself. I can't say this is a very wise stand to take, as it often is the case that an objective view is needed more than a "gut" view from those such as yourself. It is all too easy to become entrenched in local everday life to see above the troubles and the effect they have.

I can see from way over here in the UK, that the troubles in Pattani are not getting any better, but they most definitely are polarising, and thay are doing so across religious divides. This is about Islamism. Nothing else...

Islamic factions have had very great success in getting what they want through violence over the past 60 years, and they have learned to be vigilant and never ceasing in moving towards what it is they want, a total Islamic state. Violence in Islam has become an acceptable tool, it has become accepted as the will of god, why else would these Islamists be on such a ludicrous quest.?

If you cannot accept that this violence has it's root in Islam and that a peaceful outcome to this without massive counter violence on the part of the Thai government is possible, then you severely misunderstand the iron will of these Islamists in their determination to bring about the changes they want to impose on all those in the area.

You said it all when you said you were in the UK. I am in all likelihood the leading American expert on Islam in Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos. I have spent more time with these people than any other westerner including a 2 year investigation into the so called Cambodian/Thailand Terrorist Connection which I concluded was total bull Shitt. For most who remember, shortly after Hambali was arrested in Ayutthaya there was a crackdown on Muslims in Cambodia sponsored and financed by the good people who brought us the Vietnam War. Many Muslim teachers were rounded up and deported and the shells of what were once schools are now just another desperate promise shattered by office workers who in far away climate controlled environments have tried and convicted men they have never met and did what Ronald Reagen would have never done. That is supply the Hun Sen government with millions of dollars to victimize the Chams who survived both Henry Kissinger's illegal carpet bombing and the genocidal maniac Brother Number One.

Ronald Reagen did spend untold millions keeping the Khmer Rouge in power though for one reason, his belief that the enemy of my enemy is my friend which is far from taking the moral high ground, the direction I try to stay in within these musings. The Muslims of Central Thailand only want peace in the South and a little sense of justice concerning disappeared Muslims like Somchai who is the most well known case. However the Southern Muslims have been pushed over the line and no longer support the government as it exists there now. While there is much sympathy throughout the Muslims communities I can assure you the Muslims I know are busy working 16 or more hours a day to put food into the mouths of their children when they are not praying and have no time for such luxury as war which is reserved for politicians, their bean counters, and pawns until they manipulate the situation to the point that food is disrupted. Thats when things get interesting or like we say back home, "Get to the nut cutting", Have a nice day.

Mai Krap,

First of all, it makes no sense to cite credentials in the envornment, where it is impossible to verify them. Secondly,

even if we accept your credentials, can you also claim that you are leading expert on JI, rebelion on Mindanao, Chechen republic, Kashmire, Al Qaeda and various wahabist movements etc etc . If you are, I am all ears. If not,

well, a lot of what you are saying makes sense historically but the situation on the ground in Thailand changed drastically during last several years. There is a lot of information available in open publications about these changes. You seem to completely ignore it. Here are some very obvious examples: how typical would it be for traditional muslims in deep South to boycott Israeli and American goods? Wear JI outfits ? Behead innocent buddist monks? Set up Al-Qaeda stile simaltaneous attacks? Promote wahabist ideology through the University funded and staffed by Saudi Arabia? I can go on and on...

Somehow does not either fit your scheme or your qualifications...

You can believe me or take a piss on me, either way I'm not bothered. Since I'm not a paid writer here on this forum I'm under no obligation to provide anyone with credentials. I just made a few comments because I was referred to as a possible yellow bellied apologist, which is not what I see when I look in the mirror.

I like the way you and others suggest that I may be unqualified to comment about a subject I deal with on a daily basis about people who I know well here in Thailand then you go all international and Salafi "wahabi"are devils on us. Let me ask you this? Why would any Thai Muslim buy anything from Israel or America? Would you actually know the difference between say a Salaf or a Sufi if you met them on the street? I rather doubt it, Do you know any of these people? Have you ever been to their homes? Met their wives? Know their children by name? Have any idea what they are about? Or do you as Dr. Abuza comment from one side of the fence having never even entered the no mans land you established in your mind, beyond which lay only evil, evil which may exist only in your head.

This entire situation is a ongoing tragedy but one that nobody in power "Government" tried to put the brakes on when you could see the wreck coming from a mile away. What will be the end result? Im not sure but I believe the situation will only get worse unless you bring some people to account on the government side and that just ain't going to happen.

And why would Thai muslims would not buy anything from Israel and America? Does Israel have anything to do with the situation in the deep South? I have been to Phuket, Samui , Hat Yai and Nakom Sitamarat but I have never been to the deep

South of Thailand. I will not be able to distinguish salaf and Sufi. But does it really matter? There is a general pattern

how islamic conflicts evolve throughout the world. It does not matter whether it is Somali, Chechnya or South of Thailand.

You seem to deny this pattern and corresponding facts. Hence, I do not perceive your analysis as valid. Consider, for example, the conflict in Checnya. Chechens fought Russian occupation for hundreds of years. They are proud people and great warriors. After the first Chechen war (under Yeltsin) the central government in Moscow decided to let Chechnya go.

Chechen republic formally remained a part of Russian Federation but de facto gained an independence with its own government completely independent of Moscow. It took just several monthes to transform Chechnya into the centre of drug trafficking, money counterfeigting and yes, the presence of wahabists became much more visible. Then vicious terrorist attacks (with direct participation of foreign muslim terrorists) got spread throughout Russia. Then Putin started the second Chechen war (and it seems that he had no other choice). It was a brutal war without any rules conducted by corrupted Russian Army and full of gruesome atrocities from both sides. The resistance of Chechens was finally broken . It took extra several years to essentially stop terrorists attacks against big Russian cities (but , nevertheless, the atrocious attack on the Theater in Moscow and tragedy in Beslan both with direct participation of foreign islamic terrorists did happen).

Returning to the situation in the deep South of Thailand, I tend to agree with you in one aspect. Islamic terrorists over there are not seeking

unification with Malaysia. At least whatever I was able to see from their websites does not indicate in this direction.

Their attitude is quite similar to Chechen terrorists who took control of Chechnya after the first war. This attitude:leave us alone. They ask for autonomy within Thailand but in the form of de facto independence. In fact, forwarding provinces to Malaysia would not be a bad solution at all but hardly feasible under present circumstances. I would not be surprised to see

that if islamic terrorists in deep South of Thailand get what they want, we will have the Chechen scenario in Thailand.

You deny an existing pattern. Say, if you were an expert in Afganistan, could you predict Taliban and Al Qaeda? If you were an expert in Kashmire, could you predict escalating terrorist attacks in both India and Pakistan which already took thousands of innocent lives. You may have a good knowledge of deep South but you completely misunderstand the dynamics over there

(as Thaksin during his first years in the office or Banya right now). I can easily imagine that muslims of deep South have legitimate concerns and grievances. The tragedy of the current situation is that it is essentially not relevant anymore.

Either somebody in Thailand will take decisive measures to take complete military control over provinces, interrupt money supply from wahabists, close Universities and religious schools controlled and funded by wahabists, or deep South will go along the Chechen route with clear ramifications for the rest of Thailand.

Things aren't always as black and white as some would have you to believe.

Link to article in the Nation

Mai Krap

I find it hard to tell wether you are genuinely concerned about the the spin being put on the problems in the south by the likes of analyst Dr. Abuza and others, or are you just another yellow belly apologist for the Islamists in Pattani!

You offer much to debate, but really all you end up doing is confusing the issue by clouding disparate problems, and like the islamists you try to make one problem seem to be something else. Your anti-spin of the situation in Pattani seems to come from some innate sense that only you are right and no one outside of the area could possibly see things more clearly and objectively than you yourself. I can't say this is a very wise stand to take, as it often is the case that an objective view is needed more than a "gut" view from those such as yourself. It is all too easy to become entrenched in local everday life to see above the troubles and the effect they have.

I can see from way over here in the UK, that the troubles in Pattani are not getting any better, but they most definitely are polarising, and thay are doing so across religious divides. This is about Islamism. Nothing else...

Islamic factions have had very great success in getting what they want through violence over the past 60 years, and they have learned to be vigilant and never ceasing in moving towards what it is they want, a total Islamic state. Violence in Islam has become an acceptable tool, it has become accepted as the will of god, why else would these Islamists be on such a ludicrous quest.?

If you cannot accept that this violence has it's root in Islam and that a peaceful outcome to this without massive counter violence on the part of the Thai government is possible, then you severely misunderstand the iron will of these Islamists in their determination to bring about the changes they want to impose on all those in the area.

You said it all when you said you were in the UK. I am in all likelihood the leading American expert on Islam in Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos. I have spent more time with these people than any other westerner including a 2 year investigation into the so called Cambodian/Thailand Terrorist Connection which I concluded was total bull Shitt. For most who remember, shortly after Hambali was arrested in Ayutthaya there was a crackdown on Muslims in Cambodia sponsored and financed by the good people who brought us the Vietnam War. Many Muslim teachers were rounded up and deported and the shells of what were once schools are now just another desperate promise shattered by office workers who in far away climate controlled environments have tried and convicted men they have never met and did what Ronald Reagen would have never done. That is supply the Hun Sen government with millions of dollars to victimize the Chams who survived both Henry Kissinger's illegal carpet bombing and the genocidal maniac Brother Number One.

Ronald Reagen did spend untold millions keeping the Khmer Rouge in power though for one reason, his belief that the enemy of my enemy is my friend which is far from taking the moral high ground, the direction I try to stay in within these musings. The Muslims of Central Thailand only want peace in the South and a little sense of justice concerning disappeared Muslims like Somchai who is the most well known case. However the Southern Muslims have been pushed over the line and no longer support the government as it exists there now. While there is much sympathy throughout the Muslims communities I can assure you the Muslims I know are busy working 16 or more hours a day to put food into the mouths of their children when they are not praying and have no time for such luxury as war which is reserved for politicians, their bean counters, and pawns until they manipulate the situation to the point that food is disrupted. Thats when things get interesting or like we say back home, "Get to the nut cutting", Have a nice day.

Mai Krap,

First of all, it makes no sense to cite credentials in the envornment, where it is impossible to verify them. Secondly,

even if we accept your credentials, can you also claim that you are leading expert on JI, rebelion on Mindanao, Chechen republic, Kashmire, Al Qaeda and various wahabist movements etc etc . If you are, I am all ears. If not,

well, a lot of what you are saying makes sense historically but the situation on the ground in Thailand changed drastically during last several years. There is a lot of information available in open publications about these changes. You seem to completely ignore it. Here are some very obvious examples: how typical would it be for traditional muslims in deep South to boycott Israeli and American goods? Wear JI outfits ? Behead innocent buddist monks? Set up Al-Qaeda stile simaltaneous attacks? Promote wahabist ideology through the University funded and staffed by Saudi Arabia? I can go on and on...

Somehow does not either fit your scheme or your qualifications...

As far as I understand Abbot indeed developed the drug in question (or rather drugs as it's a cocktail). The initial research, however, was sponsored by NHI, not by Abbot. They invested only when the commercial success was guaranteed.

Currently they are being sued bor inflating prices of their first drug, Norvir, which consitutes the base component in HIV cocktails.

"Save the Abbot" brigade doesn't sound very credible until they address these questions.

Thailand has always been praised for its handling on AIDS epidemic, since early nineties, years before Thaksin.

Well, my post is based on facts. Before Thaksin's comprehensive program, thre was very little help to AIDS patients in Thailand from the government and as I said dozens of thousands died without any help.

Now, I am not going to discuss this topic with demagogues who have no clue what is the reality on the ground in Thailand.

If you want to argue with me, make yourself familiar with the real facts.

There was a little about HIV/AIDS medication in Mumbu's rant .... but not much. It never addressed the fact that Abbott didn't create the drug in question, OR that Thailand was within it's rights to decide to produce it on its own

<as for the liar that keeps sending me the inappropriate PM's ... LOL>

I said that it is irrelevant whether Abbot developed the drug or not, because Thai government decision did not take this fact into consideration. The only reason that was given is cost savings. Thailand within its rights to decide to produce it on its own. The action of Abbot is also perfectly legal. The point is who is responsible for AIDS crisis in Thailand. Certainly not Abbots Labs. Hence, they should not bear the cost of the problem. Thai government should and could.

It is an amazing thread. I am not surprised that people are

so passionate about AIDS. I am not surprised that the thread

attracted so many America haters: after all Abbot labs is an

American company. But why anti-semites took a part is beyond me.

It seems that you cannot blame Jews for the AIDS problem in

Thailand , though pathological filthy anti-semites see Jews

everywhere and probably come from the same company as America

haters.

AIDS in Thailand is a huge, horrible problem. For decades

government after government in Thailand did absolutely nothing to

help the plight of their people. Dozens of thousands of people

died without any kind of help from the government, lonely and

shunned by their families. That was the grim reality of Thailand

until very recently when Thaksin's government changed things

drastically. Thaksin was the first Thai PM who put the money

where the mouth was: he introduced efficient government programs

(separate from 30 baht scheme which does not cover AIDS aside

from side effects) which include retroviral drugs. This along

with testing facilities (C4 cells count) which are run by some

AMERICAN pharmas with tests free for patients finally gave hope

for the huge group of "outcasts" in Thailand.

The new xenophobic government of Thailand made a "Solomon"

decision: to keep Thaksin programs but make big foreign Pharmas

pay for it. This is important political and financial decision

which definitely imply certain ramifications.

Corporations cannot be greedy by definition. People can.

Corporations cannot. The goal of a public corporation is to

benefit their shareholders. I do not care whether Abbot labs

developed the drug in question or just marketing it. This is

irrelevant. What is relevant is that the corporation cannot

operate as a charity. Chief officers of the corporation can be

nice and kind or greedy. They may very well make donations as

private citizens to AIDS foundations but corporation cannot

operate like that. Corporation can make PR moves , even donate

for various causes but the goal of the corporation is profit.

On the contrary, governments should take care of their own

people. There are remarkable charities in Thailand (like the

one run Dr Phillipe , MSF, in Pattaya) which do amazing things

for people with Aids but the main responsibility is with the

government. Thus, the first thing I suggest to anti-semites

and America haters: do not blame Abbot labs, Americans, Bush,

Jews or whoever. They have nothing to do with AIDS problem in

Thailand. Blame Thai government. I suggest the same thing to

the citizens of Amazing kingdom of Thailand.

We live in a complex, rapidly changing world.The rise of China

and the rest of Asia as a consequence will eventually change a

human civilization as we know it. We start witnessing already

coming wealth redistribution but more drastic changes are yet

to come. The major reason for a phenomenal rising of Chinese

dragon is amazingly simple: unprecedented in the history of mankind, shameless

exploitation of hundreds of millions of villages migrating to

urban areas, where they live in conditions worth than slaves,

need to work long hours almost for nothing. This is the other

side of Chinese miracle.

Under these circumstances those who live in developed

countries (or retired in Thailand with income from those

countries) should ask a very simple question: how are they

going to maintain their living standards. Are they ready to

accept working and living conditions of their Chinese

counterparts? Or may be they should insist on protection of

intellectual properties and other unique products produced in

developed countries. All these things are the result of a

complicated and expensive chain: education, research,

technological culture, infrastructure, investments...

Are they willing to allow numerous jerks (like the one in

question in BKK) to cross all this out?

The truth is that Thai government can afford AIDS treatment

program. It was true under Thaksin, its still true now. If

this program fails, the first to blame should be Thai

government , not Abbot, Merk or Bayer.

The last thing is for America haters. I do not care whether

you are Canadian, European or Japanese. I have very bad news

for you. Do you know what is going to happen with your own

country if America fails? Your country will fail too and quite

miserably. This is the today's reality. It may change in the

future but for now you need to live with it.

I am glad to say that in yesterday's interview to CNBC ASIA Malaysian prime minister Badawi expressed views identical to mine regarding the appreciation of Malaysian ringit. To the journalist question whether he is concerned about ringit appreciation, the answer was no. He said that he would like to see further appreciation of ringit which reflects the progress of Malaysian economy. When (somewhat astounded) journalist asked to what level ringit should appreciate, Badawi responded that it should be decided by markets. He added that after decoupling ringit and US dollar, ringit steadily appreciated without signs of volatility. This indicates that SPECULATORS PLAY NO ROLE IN RINGITS APPRECIATION

(compare with what I said in this thread about the baht). I wish Thailand had currently leaders as smart as Badawi.

Ringit was linked to US dollar since 1997 crisis (and was, in fact, not convertible). It was decoupled from US dollar and allowed to free float immediately after China ceased its own coupling of rembini with US dollar. Since then ringit appreciated approximately 6.5 percent versus US dollar. Of course, baht appreciated much more. Another difference is that ringit is not allowed to be traded on offshore markets.

What Badawi understans (and what Tarisa and vast majority of posters on this message board do not) is that HE CAN DO NOTHING TO STOP RINGIT APPRECIATION WITHOUT HURTING HIS OWN COUNTRY AND HIS OWN PEOPLE.

so if i have alot of bhat saved from teaching endless english classes and am about to go back to Ny usa ,,,should i transfer to us$ now? or later? ,got about 100000 saved unbelievably livin like hermit.

Well, it is about 3000 US. No matter what you will do, you are not going to become a millionaire. You may try to get off-shore exchange rate but it is not easy. Look, e.g. at the website of HSBC in HK. This is one of the banks which allows savings accounts in Thai baht. If you look at the exhange rate table on the same webpage, they have the spread roughly equal the difference between off shore and onshore exchange rates, i.e. if you want to exchange, say, US dollars to Thai baht in this bank, they will use offshore exchange rate. If you want to exchange Thai baht to US dollar, they will give you onshore exchange rate.

By the way, even Tarisa said that she does not mind appreciation of the baht if it is at the same rate as appreciation of Thai neigbors currencies.

One thing I would never do myself (and would not advise anybody) is to rush huge amounts of your home currency (even if it is US dollar) to your Thai baht denominated account in Thailand. Unfortunately, the regulations in Thailand are changing in unpredictable manner and you may just get stuck with (say) poorely convertible baht in Thailand.

For those who hope to see the crash of Thai baht: do not hold your breath. As I said in my previous post on this thread I do agree with the assessment that economic situation in Thailand rapidly deteriorating after the coup. However, the crucial factor in baht moves are external conditions. Baht appreciation should be considered within the context of appreciation of currencies of neighboring countries and especially China. Despite the fact that excellent fundamentals existed in Thailand for several years, baht appreciation has not started until rembini started moving higher. There is a good chance that China will accelerate the appreciation of rembini (which is clearly in her own interests) and then simply forget about depreciation of Thai baht (note that Thai neighbors and China are, in fact, its major competitors on export markets). I strongly disagree that so-called "speculators" play any significant role in baht moves. Indeed, if this were the case, we would have seen a volatility in the currency in the wake of events like the coup. We saw nothing at all. Unless very severe political crisis in Thailand ,(which is, of course, cannot be excluded) baht is going to stay strong. For those who retired (or plan to retire) in Thailand based on fixed income in US dollars or UK pounds, you simply need to understand that the world is getting more complex and you need to diversify your portfolio to have a steady income in several currencies or other assets which will continue to hold its value

despite US dollar (and UK pound somewhat later) depreciation (e.g. gold is a good way to diversify).

Rising baht set to break key barrier today

The baht is likely to break the Bt35 barrier today due to massive selling of dollars by exporters concerned the currency will continue to surge against the greenback.

The local unit reached a new nine-year high yesterday when it closed at Bt35.01 against the US dollar, dealers said. It opened the day at Bt35.08 and had almost shot into the Bt34 range when the market closed.

A forex dealer who asked not to be named said exporters were concerned the baht would appreciate further after the expected revocation of Bank of Thailand (BOT) capital controls. Many believe the bank will scrap its 30-per-cent withholding requirement on foreign inflows.

Depreciation of the dollar has also helped push up the baht.

The baht has gained almost 3 per cent since the end of last year when it was trading at Bt36.04 to the dollar.

That was stronger than its quote on December 18 when the central bank introduced the controversial controls to check baht appreciation.

Yesterday's climb was attributed to implementation of a central-bank alternative for investors. From today, the BOT will no longer apply the 30-per-cent withholding requirement on foreign inflows if they are hedged in foreign-exchange swaps.

"They have sold out their dollar income for days with a misunderstanding the fully-hedged measure would not be able to decelerate the strong baht. We may see Bt34 sometime Thursday," the dealer said.

BOT Governor Tarisa Watana-gase said appreciation was a result of exporters selling dollars and not because of capital inflows speculating on the baht. She insisted the 30-per-cent withholding measure remained intact.

She would not say if the bank had intervened in the foreign-exchange market.

Calyon Credit Agricole CIB senior forex strategist Daragh Maher said policy-makers may be too nervous about baht appreciation.

Nonetheless, the baht is expected to be stronger next year.

Thailand's exports grew significantly last year despite the baht's appreciation against the greenback, Maher added.

This indicates exporters were competitive - probably owing to improving productivity or costs, he said.

This year the baht has under-performed, compared with regional currencies following the capital controls, Maher told a global economics and interest-rate seminar hosted by his company and the Public Debt Management Office.

He expected the baht to be around the Bt34.5 mark to the dollar by December next year.

Renewed economic growth in the US and a pickup in Asian gross domestic product next year will contribute to baht appreciation, he said. He expected a stronger domestic economy on the back of lower inflation and interest rates. An improving political situation will boost confidence in the currency.

Maher believed Asian economic growth would suffer a soft patch in the coming months owing to poorer export numbers but will remain resilient overall. Regional growth will be about 7.6 per cent - down from 8.7 per cent last year.

China will suffer a modest slowdown, he said and growth in Japan would be about 2 per cent.

Newly appointed Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn indicated he wanted a sharp cut in the BOT's policy interest rate.

ING Funds (Thailand) managing director Maris Tarab yesterday expected the BOT to slash rates by 50 basis points on March 21.

Chalongphob meets Tarisa today for talks on the economy, central-bank reform and financial markets.

Finance Ministry spokesman Somchai Sujjapongse said public spending had started to give the economy a boost over the five months between October and February when the government ran a cashflow deficit. Revenues were Bt489.12 billion and expenditures Bt597.55 billion.

Source: The Nation - 15 March 2007

This is a nice article. Most of what armchair economists say in this thread makes absolutely no sense. I like though the comment regarding using Thai baht as a proxy to renbini. It makes sense. Thai baht is not overpriced. Let me repeat some factors which I already mentioned elsewhere which led to appreciation ofThai currency:

1. Lack of current account and budget deficits (couple of last years under Thaksin)

2. Relatively high interest rates (until very recently)

3. Relatively high rates of economic growth

4. General appreciation of regional currencies (Malaysian ringin, Phil. peso, Indon rupiyah). All these currencies were undervalued and current appreciation is in the end of the day due to renbini appreciation and phenomenal growth of Chinese Economy).

5. Boom in real estate, cheap and stable stock market, booming foreign investments, high level of MA activity

(everything under Thaksin. Falling apart rapidly now)

6. Tourism reached unprecented level (under Thaksin)

The argument that US dollar falls because US wants it is only partially correct. US government wants gradual depreciation of US currency to avoid its collapse. It cannot prevent depreciation of US dollar and it is a long-term trend.

The good question, of course, why now when everything falling apart in Thailand so rapidly baht continue to appreciate.

First, there is a certain inertia in forex markets, secondly, regional trend of appreciation is still intact, thirdly and paradoxically

the capital control measure created an artificial deficit of Thai bahts on international markets which is reflected in differences in offshore and onshore rates. But these rates are not independent as some may think. The huge difference would lead to collapse of Thai financial system.

If the idea of the new finance minister is to drive interest rates to zero (which I hope not), then we are going to see a completely new show: Thai baht is used in carry trade. That is, of course, dollar-denominated pensionare living in Thailand

dream come true. Let us just not dream...

Let me add one more thing here. When Thaksin came to power, I absolutely hated him. Because he immediately started a lot of changes some of them were quite painful and some I simply did not understand. Only with time I start to appreciate what he is doing and how unusually bold he is. The irony is that the man who was a head of the party "Thai Rak Thai" turned out to be the most cosmopolitan man in Thailand! If you talk to pretty much any Thai, they will tell you right upfront that in Thailand everything of any value should be under Thais control. The very fact of selling such a huge corporation as Shin to Singapore is absolutely unthinkable for many Thais and probably perceived as an act of corruption itself (of course, the fact that it was tax free for Thaksin's family does not help either). Nevertheless, according to experts who looked into the deal, there is nothing illegal in it (except, perhaps , of minor technicalities). There is a myth of big corruption of Thaksin's government.

Whether there is something that can be proven in courts (and the current government insists on that, since they understand that any other way may return to them as a boomerang)remains to be seen.