BernieOnTour

3 hours ago, webfact said:

with 249 tourists due to arrive on flights from Israel, Abu Dhabi and Qatar

Really? ????

I thought: the Thai government is afraid of Covid? ????

... the United Arab Emirates are classified as “risk areas” in EU countries

... Oman even as “high incidence area”

... and Israel is reporting increasing number of cases despite having the highest vaccination rate (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-covid-delta-variant-two-month-record-masks-indoors-1.9937892)

On 6/29/2021 at 4:41 AM, JCP108 said:

If you believe that the PCR tests carry a false positive rate of 0.5% (I do) and each sandboxer will have a 1.5% chance of getting a false positive, then out of every 1,000 travelers, 15 of them will get a 14-day stay in one of the two field hospitals they have set up on the island. One thing I wonder about: if an asymptomatic person gets a false positive test result and ends up in the field hospital (read hospitel or forced quarantine in a hotel), how much will they have to pay out of pocket? I can't imagine their insurance policy paying if they aren't symptomatic and aren't put in an actual hospital to get actual treatment. 

I wouldn’t be astonished, if that’s part of their calculation ????

Because: the field hospitals are for Thai citizens,

”Aliens” have to go into a real hospital.

”Bangkok hospital, here I come !”

... another 100k plus

Btw: 0.5% FP from specifity would be a really good percentage,

there are European studies estimating up to 1.5%,

depends on the quality assurance during sample taking, transport, laboratory practice

and of cause the Ct-value (the amplification)

again, always these pre-chewed informations:

where was that study published?

at least: authors and title, so that we can check by ourselves

On 6/23/2021 at 6:31 AM, webfact said:

to ease quarantine requirements both in Thailand and in the visitor’s home country.

Physician, heal thyself !

... ridiculous to even think about our home countries before cleaning up their own sh...

On 6/25/2021 at 4:06 AM, webfact said:

With this in mind all the pick-ups at the airport will be registered drivers and no taxi mafia will be allowed. 

Read:

Only those granted a “letter of marque and reprisal” allowed at the airport !

????

Before totally discarding the SinoVac, I would also take this into consideration:

The development of science and its transfer into technology and production has never been one big bump, it is an iterative process.

Look at the Otto-motor, electric cars, computers, ... eg. compare the Apollo moon landing computers with your cellphone today.

The technology behind the SinoVac is an immunization technology, applied and improved since more than 100 years: incapacitating an antigen.

- Compared to that, RNA-based vaccination is still in its early infancy.

And there’s another important point:

The RNA based vaccines use only one part of the SARS-Cov2 virus, the Spike protein, to get an immune response.

Whereas the SinoVac is based on the whole virus, therefore training  your immune system with far more indicators and access points to identify an infection.

A Danish study of recovered Covid patients recently identified more than 1400 different indicators ...

The Delta variant is only one tiny branch of the SARS-Cov2 genome tree, just check https://www.gisaid.org .

eg. The original Wuhan “variant” was already irrelevant, when Covid developed in Europe.

Luckily the mutations make up only ~ 1.5% of the virus genome, therefore the immune system’s detection can still work on the other 98.5%.

And - luckily for the RNA based vaccines ! - the Spike proteins are (currently) not prone to mutating decisively.

... if they would do: “Back to Old Kent Road” for the RNA vaccines ...

On 6/24/2021 at 12:54 PM, HaoleBoy said:

A recent study done in Hong Kong doesn't really advocate Sinovac ...  Especially when the Delta variant Covid-19 virus is present.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/28831/delta-variants-danger-and-new-studies-raises-questions-about-thai-vaccine-program/

 

But the application of the Sinovac vaccine is problematic. Emerging data shows that the current vaccines, especially the ones with lower efficacy rates like the Sinovac, are not effective in stopping the transmission of the Delta variant.

 

Even a leading Thai Dr. proposed farangs entering the Phuket sandbox with Sinovac vaccination should not be let into the sandbox.  (Yet, a large number of people in Phuket were vaccinated with Sinovac by Thai Gov.)

 

I would recommend everyone, to make some proof reading first, before just accepting such individual opinions as truth ...

Let’s start with the PBS article:

”Two Doses of Sinovac can stop spread of Covid-19”

- all Phase3-studies -AZ, Pfizer, Moderna ... and Sinovac - had as main endpoint: to stop severe Covid symptoms

- that is totally different to: “stop the spread” = sterile immunity 

- in the two countries with highest global vaccination rates -Israel and Seychelles- already more than 50% of the cases are from those vaccinated before

- how difficult it is to stop the spread of virus infections, we can learn from the former Influenza vaccinations, even in countries which high vaccination rates

And: even “a leading doctor ... proposed”?

Wo defines, who is leading? Who is checking, what are their motives? What studies did they provide to support their hypothesis ?

Every country has nowadays such narcissistic, TV-camera loving doctors telling us about the doom-and-gloom ... 

The referenced Hongkong study - which, btw. refers to antibodies, not sterile immunity/spread - is a good example:

This doctors study is based on 1000 cases, therefore he is immediately referring to the far higher numbers of the Phase3 studies.

And: why is SMCP stating: “The details of the findings would be published first in academic journals, Cowling said.”

... really? if so important, why not even a pre-print in a science magazine?

On 6/25/2021 at 7:47 AM, Surelynot said:

They still give me and the wife dirty looks now.........Germans are not big fans of mixed race marriages.

That what he was addressing had nothing to do with mixed marriages,

happened to me also still in the  70‘s that a hotel rejected me a room with my girlfriend (despite the the law being reformed in  1969).

The reason for that was the old „Kuppelparagraph“ aka. hooking up paragraph from 1871. So to say Victorian rules 555

Coupling was meant to convey opportunities for so-called „fornication“.

Renting a hotel room to unmarried couples was therefore problematic.

It would be far more interesting to learn :

- What was the budget for this so-called command center?

- What would be -normally- the market price for this so-called command center ?

- Which companies got the contracts to build it and fit it out ?

History always repeats itself ...

... and in LoS it’s a really fast roundabout ????

Remember last year, 

when the smart Bangkok Governor was the one starting all these lockdowns ?

... and the exodus back to the rice fields of the family?

4 minutes ago, BernieOnTour said:

 

Exactly, that’s what I referred to !

 

The Phase 3 studies are not finalized,

the final documentation has still to be delivered.

 

Otherwise they wouldn’t need a permission „for emergency use“

 

and would have already a full permission for marketing,

resulting in post-clinical Phase 4 surveillance !

By the way:

that’s why some countries, eg. Germany, are still sticking to the declaration of a  national epidemic (instead of a huge decrease in case numbers)

- according to some national laws,

that would force them to stop immediately their vaccination activities,

because that would stop immediately their right to use vaccines  for emergency use.

24 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

He had the AZ vaccine not sinovac

Exactly, that’s what I referred to !

The Phase 3 studies are not finalized,

the final documentation has still to be delivered.

Otherwise they wouldn’t need a permission „for emergency use“

and would have already a full permission for marketing,

resulting in post-clinical Phase 4 surveillance !

6 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

 

Says the fully vaccinated Government !

 

 

Due to your inability to organise a vaccination programme !

Well ...

by getting a jab with a vaccine,

only admitted for emergency use and still uncompleted Phase 3 studies,

I would conclude:

Yes, he took a risk !

...

On 6/19/2021 at 4:34 AM, webfact said:

A total of 18 million baht in assets was made including jewelry, four cars, a gun, and cash. 

 

There had been 200 million baht circulating in the illegal gambling operation and 1.6 million was found in the account. 

Well, reading these numbers,

instead of throwing them into jail,

they should offer them an alternative:

work as consultants for 20k only

and help the stumbling start-up scene in Thailand

????

On 6/20/2021 at 9:25 PM, webfact said:

infections are still at about 3,000, or more than 300 people are in need of ventilators

... I can tell, which way the wind is blowing ... ????

Really, 300 ventilators? - You are talking about 300 intubations ?

- seems, I have to add an addendum to my patient‘s provision ...

The huge number of intubations in Wuhan, when they didn’t know anything about the new infection and primarily wanted to protect their hospital staff from getting infected by using intubations - that was understandable !

However: nowadays ?

Doctor, don’t tell me, you are also still giving

Dexamethasone    to Covid patients,

something you would strongly oppose with other beta-coronavirus infections !

2 minutes ago, Kwaibill said:

30 deaths per day is 10,950, not 10,000. You're off by nearly 10%.

Sorry, but that calls into question your other "estimates".

Well, with :

an average number of deaths per annum in Thailand of 544,440,

(based on the avg. death rate per 1000)

10,950 of cause makes a huge difference to 10,000  ????

25 minutes ago, placeholder said:

What would those figures be if there were no measures taken to control Covid?

ymmv ...  ????

nearly the same !

Just compare infection rates and deaths over the whole period, by comparing countries/states with hard lockdown measures versus those with low or nearly no measures.

eg.

Sweden versus UK

South Dakota versus North Dakota

Well it’s not,

that the „Third wave of Covid-19 devastates Thai hotel industry“

... unless SARS-Cov2 has gained more abilities and is now attacking also booking computers, buildings, lifts, kitchens ...

What devastates them are the laws and regulations of governments and officials (worldwide),

they consider appropriate

to fight the WHO declared pandemic.

9 minutes ago, Bundooman said:

If that's your opinion. Maybe you should inform yourself better to get a more educated view of the situation.

 

Another 'expert' still in denial!

 

Prissy little know it alls - always find one on any forum.

You know, the forums that are there for views and differing opinions.

Well, I agree, normally he should prove that statement with more argumentation and citing sources - but you haven’t done that either, so let’s neglect that ...

Maybe, you both have become somewhat of an expert during the last ~ 17 months

... instead of just consuming spoon-fed TV and reading newspapers, digging into numbers and reading original scientific studies and papers.

If that’s the case, the evaluation of the available facts and evidence has led both of you to a different theory

- and „expert in denial“ is just an unfair trick to win over him without having to discuss.

Alas, if you would be an armchair warrior, just consuming spoon fed information from TV and (most of the) press

- then „expert in denial“ is a just a useless attack of a lazy, uninformed person following the recent trends.

... two of the best popular changes in trends, followed by attacking „experts in denial“   during he last 17 months are:

- masks do not help a lot / wear masks

- the Wuhan lab isn’t the source of the virus, it has been proven it’s from the wet market / there is considerable evidence, there was gain of function research and the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab

... besides being astonished that the Russians have only a 5.4% share in condo ownership ...

These numbers have absolutely zero relevance for their new „much awaited plan“ selling new property :

- the market is totally different after Covid

- the statistics are about ownership in the last 3 years, therefore made under the impression of different immigration rules, global tourism and economic conditions 

- not taking into account, their target group of „well-heeled professionals in 4 groups“ might have totally different considerations and motivations 

... one could even assume, these old condo owner groups are already covered and will less likely buy new property ...

In essence:

The developers‘ version of TAT‘s wet dreams !

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Bookings have been made for 64 flights per week in and out of Krabi Airport between October 2021 and March 2022.

Let’s see, what that means...

Assuming, the number of international flights will be relatively low,

and using for domestic flights a narrow-body aircraft, an Airbus A320neo with 180 seats, let’s be positive: fully loaded.

That‘s 64 x 180 = 11,520 passengers per week

With the usual delay, we were experiencing in the recent months, 

we start on October 17 until March 31 - that are 28 weeks,

resulting in 11,520 x 28 = 322,560 passengers in the main season

... Krabi handled in 2019: 3,651,658  passengers (in- and outcoming)

10 hours ago, Steve80 said:

5. International arrivals must download the MorChana app (english version), insert the CoE number and agree to 'share location'. Each hotel will have a SHA manager who will inform the relevant authorities if you switch off the share location permission

Does anyone know, if the MorChana app is storing locations, if you have no connectivity?

... thinking about the „airplane mode“ or „your battery is low“ ????

By the way: 

I really hope, those ATTA guys only know, how to „len Fate book“ or Instagram and have no bloody idea about IT.

I assumed, they would at least try to keep your data confidential and only use it, when the need for contact tracing is arising...

So:

HOW can a so-called „SHA manager“ in a hotel

(who is essentially an employee, not hiding fast enough, when they were looking for volunteers)

find out, that you switched off the share location permission 

.. and then inform the „relevant“ authorities ???

15 hours ago, blorg said:

Particularly not if the 1st jab is Sinovac, which really needs the second dose to be effective, it is not half as bad as people make out after the second dose but it it has particularly poor efficacy from the first dose.

That‘s interesting !

You seems to have access to the SinoVac Phase 3 studies and supporting scientific studies.

I have been looking for some pointers to the scientific papers since weeks to no avail.

... I am keen to learn more about SinoVac:

because it is a traditional vaccine with inactivated complete antigens, a proven technique since more than 100 years,

without the brand new RNA technology using only the Spike proteins.

Could you please share the links with us ?