Seneque

For a place called the "Land of Smiles", there sure are a lot of unhappy people.

Today's protests... as of noon...

protesters at Don Mueang... protesters at the SET building... protesters at Government House...

+garlic, + rice, + cassava +++ ...

The world financial meltdown 'might' bypass thailand ... they have a real serious 'selfmade' debt crisis that will not bypass them...

Ya, now Japan is recalling those loans

Completely agree ... but beware if there is a global consensus to say : sorry no more cash, we will default ! then overnight the yen is worth nothing ... then where to turn to !!??

I still believe that countries (who suffer the most now, because they were providing high yielding assets and will be soon again) that have large mineral reserves (australia, south africa, canada, new zealand, brazil ... etc...) will come off this better than most (it will take a while though)... we still are a few billions people on earth that will need to live and for this we need to consume ...

The temporary collapse of most currencies against the USD, the Yen (the THB for us in thailand) is not sustainable when these new 'strong' currencies countries rely mainly on export ... (the US is a different story as they rely only on money borrowed ...)

Does the 'Stanby' magazine could photocopy and publish the receipt from the TAT check .... !

That was mean ... hit me, hit me ...!

Still Thailand is the perfect holiday country ... as most south-east asian countries are ... but winning the award 2 years in a row is a little stretching ....

For 'Seneque', re post #38:

You said:

"What is happening now is simply the result of ultimate greed and criminal financial activities by bankers and to think that they are being freely bailed out without any blink of an eye shows how far and how deep this goes as they are hand in hand with extremely corrupted politicians."

I think that that is an excellent, succinct exegesis, and will 'adopt' it, if that is OK by you.

Whats the aussie dollar worth to thai baht

As of friday Oct 24th .... AUD 1 = Baht 21 .... (10 baht per AUD down since July (a little over 30%!!)) ... coming from one of the best managed and ressourceful country in the world ... it is insanity beyong repair !!! ... yes i know about leverage, carry trades and the lot ... but something is real wrong somewhere !

For 'Seneque', re post #38:

You said:

"What is happening now is simply the result of ultimate greed and criminal financial activities by bankers and to think that they are being freely bailed out without any blink of an eye shows how far and how deep this goes as they are hand in hand with extremely corrupted politicians."

I think that that is an excellent, succinct exegesis, and will 'adopt' it, if that is OK by you.

Be my guest ... as we r in this for the long haul !

conservative corporate and mortgage lending practices of the banks here to corportae and individuals will help it some.

Shark loans have been on an exponantial rise since a few years due to this bank lending conservatism ... and this is not accounted into the 'real' economy ... so where does this lead the local economy, debt wise ??

Besides the local stock market (even manipulated as it is) dived down ... so no immunity there ...

I wish them well but overconfidence in times like this is rather disturbing.

I would say the resulting strong Baht isn't helping exports too much

Strong Baht? The Baht has weakened, and the dollar strengtened. Good for Exports to the U.S.A. for Thai companies.

Barry

Is there only the THB and the USD on earth ... The Korean currency collapsed completely (??), the AUD and NZD (Australia & New Zealand) collapsed totally, the EUR (euro) is not pretty looking ... etc .... and these currencies are coming from real strong economies ...

I am still amazed to see people who believe the Thai Baht is 'actually' weakening ...

The BOT is strongly selling the USD (their main reserve currency) to maintain the Baht ... until when ??!!

The USD is swallowing all the current debts ... and then it will be a free fall ...

What is happening now is simply the result of ultimate greed and criminal financial activities by bankers and to think that they are being freely bailed out without any blink of an eye shows how far and how deep this goes as they are hand in hand with extremely corrupted politicians.

I agree that when bankers start telling we are fine .... (as Mrs. Tarisa also mentonned last week) you ought not to be believing them ... when they closed 56 or so finance companies in 1997 ... the money was frozen for 4 years ... so dont be too relax holding yr cash in thai banks ... why would Thailand be the only country in the world immune ? ... They never paid back the IMF loan (just diverted it) ... how about the shark loans, which do not appear on any book, ... etc...

Thailand is heavily in debt with an economy which relies on tourism and low value added exports ... how can they be immune ... beats me.

when you are not irritated at the repeated deep thoughts such as :

mai pen rai

Arai ko dai

jai yen yen

that definitely contribute to thailand being such a wonderful world.

when you drive on the wrong side of the road because the u-turn is a little too far..

when you dont hear the screaming music everywhere ...

when you dont hear the dogs barking anymore ...

when the village headman at his microphone at 6.30am is just plain normal ..

when police trying to stop you on the road is not a dangerous hazard ..

when you start going to too many funerals ......

Exporters in particular must brace for the volatility of the global financial crisis and economic slowdown of trading partners.

Exporters are ready to 'brace for' whatever ... but how about giving them (and the tourism industry) a boost with a 'hands-off' systematic intervention on the currency ...

I believe the PAD to be worse. It's very simple IMO, the PAD clearly espouses fascist ideology.

PPP get dissolved for vote buying, so they didn't got elected....

And calling the PAD fascists just shows clearly that you didn't look into the details of the acting persons. Would say there are more very left one than right wing.

And you clearly know nothing about politics. Fascism is not a left/right movement. But let's be fair, and say they are clearly a Totalitarian movement.

So the PAD are a fascist totalitarian movement, whereas the TRT/PPP/DAAD merely gas people or blow their limbs off, on the streets of Bangkok. That's a very subtle difference, so narrow in my opinion, as to be invisible.

Thaksin is the one who is acting like a totalitarian facist.

He is doing his best to control the country as he wants it,

even though he is definitely not elected now.

He was the one attempting control the country like a facisist

THAT is what brought on the coup.

No matter coup or not his term would be over now,

his party dissolved for electoral malfeasance

He is banned fir 5 years.

most of his family and friends are also banned.

He has 5 legal cases to answer for from an independent judiciary.

But his proxy government is trying to rewrite the constitution

to allow him to get off scott free and come back and take over again.

Says it all, really.

And I too find the strength of the Baht very difficult to understand, the BoT must be buying Baht like crazy to keep it so strong, with mobs (of both sides) on the streets & a potential border-war flaring up. On whose instructions ? Well the government takes its orders from London, where there is a certain person, who still hopes to change a large sum of Baht into foreign-currencies, probably Bahamian going by his latest rumoured passport.

In a few months time, when the Baht slumps and the BoT & country lose-out, remember whose interests were being served.

Not sure, watch the European and US, Japanese news. Maybe the Baht is falling fast, but all the others as well, so relative everything remains the same...

THE BAHT IS FALLING FAST ???!!! ... we are not watching the same screen !

22 to the AUD

46 to the EUR

34.10 to the USD

what fundamentals has thailand (except their exceptionnal transparent governance...) to maintain this ?? very strange indeed

Somchai insists to stay on to carry out three important missions

BANGKOK: -- Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat insisted Friday that his government has to stay on to carry out three important missions.

First, his government would have to hold the royal cremation for HRH Princess Galyani Vadhana from November 14 to 19. And on November 20, there will be a ceremony for setting up a tiered umbrella to honour the late princess.

Second, his government would have to hold a grand celebration on the occasion of His Majesty the King's birthday in December.

Somchai said the third event was important for Thailand's image in the eyes of the International Community. He said Thais should be united to support the government in holding the Asean Summit in December. He said the entire world was watching whether Thailand could hold the event smoothly or not.

-- The Nation 2008-10-17

How the Thai baht can remain so strong against other currencies is one of the most amazing wonders of the modern world.

The country is a shambles with the Gov paralysed for how long now ? I am going to email Oz Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, tonight and tell him the secret to a strong currency is chaos. Maybe Aus can attack New Guinea or NZ. Does the curent PM really believe the rest of the world looks upon Thailand as a country to be admired.

Without heavy support, i really dont see the fundamentals for the Baht to be the most resilient currency in the world considering what is happening here on all fronts.

Agree with you, compare to the beating the AUD took (coming from of the best managed and ressourceful country in the world ???)

As long as Mr. T as his cash (frozen) here the baht will stay strong also for the good reason that it gives the chance for the heavy weight to move theirs abroad.

What's next for the Baht ... ?? and for the country ... A Korean scenario ?... most likely (considering the manufacturing excellence of Korea and comparing it to Thailand which relies heavily on fading tourism and not so much value added exports .. i just wonder)

Please forward me yr email to Mr. Rudd ... and hang on to the AUD ...!!

The more i hear about this repeated 'no coup' thing ... well the more i believe it will happen ... Coup are (almost) a way of life here ...

Off-topic ... but reminds me of the constant 'no devaluation' of Chavalit ....

Deputy Government Spokeswoman Suparat Nakboonnam said the Meteorological Department has alerted the governors of the province

Would be nice to hear this from the 'Meteorological Department' first hand ... the spokeswoman might have ommit a few details !!!

I miss Anand ... the only prime minister that actually did something for the country and its people ... gosh if he could have stayed longer in charge, what a charm Thailand would be today ...

I think he is simply pointing a finger at Mr. T. ... telling him in simple terms : stay away, have a life and bury your power hungry ego !

Uhh forgive me, but the banker merely stated the obvious. Thailand depends heavily on exports and Tourism. If the customers don't have the money to buy or to visit, then for sure there will be a ripple effect. People have been stating the obvious in the forums since April when the wall street folks started panicing.

What I would have like to have heard is a definitive statement as to how much of the mortgage backed securities are being held by the Thai banks and the government. I have yet to see a clearcut statement from any Thai financial services company along the lines of what was done elsewhere. (e.g. Allianz stated in its annual report the exposure it had through Dresdner Bank.)

I guess that is where the problem lies ... total lack of transparency from thai banks (the family owners would not appreciate if anyone knew how they handle funds ...), hence what it their exposure to this global mess is total assumption, plus the never ending Bank of Thailand reassurance that everything is fine ... which makes Thailand as the only country in the world in that position !

I hope they are right but the picture looks too good not have been photoshopped ...

Of course a crystal ball would help tremendously but the firmness of the Baht since Mr. T has his assets frozen here, is rather suspicious to me ... no offence.

To all economic wizards :

What does that mean for the Thai Baht ? .... strenght in the short term due to dollar sell and then heavy dip or ...?

i'll be interested to hear from you all

I think thais are basically quite good at compromise .... but it has to go their way !

Definitely there will be repercussions due to his arrest.

PAD will re-intensify their campaign.

Chamlong has many friends that are senior within the military and charging him with treason will ignite tempers. He's viewed as a patriot and a devout Buddhist (depite being a military man) and is well respected by many.

A bad tactical move by the PPP to allow this to happen.

The bad tactical move was made by Chamlong when he decided to throw his lot in with the PAD. I think any respect that he rightfully earned in his impressive public career before went right out the window when he made that move. The PAD needed him more than he needed them IMHO.

Correct .. the bad tactical move by Chamlong... however we have to admit that the PAD is the only visual opposing force to the PPP ... the rest of the 'silent' opposition is ... too silent !

This race for Bangkok is real entertainment ... i wonder what's next ... anything will do to get votes (swimming/drowning in a klong, kicking the anchorman, ...) i can't wait ! ...

Are Sundays considered ... a ''public holiday'' ?

So for new year 2008/2009 it will be a soda in a champagne glass ?? never tried it before ...

80% less tourists expected for the 'high' season (last week stats) ... this kind of news will definitely improve the percentage ...?!?

The regulation would also proฌhibit liquor sales from 11am2pm and 5pmmidnight every day, except by those with the authority's perฌmission

but this would be 'tea money'!, of course ... no alcohol involved

Suwinai said the human-security score was calculated using comprehensive? criteria, including the ratios of hospital beds/doctors to the population, student/teacher ratio, household income, employment rate, crime rate, divorce rate, population density, telephone and Internet access, and election turnout.

How 'human' security is related to these factors is something i would like to understand ... apart from crime rate and population density .. i dont see how the others are determinant ...

Is someone trying to sell Chiangmai with the hopefully finger crossing high season coming soon ....

Who cares. I moved here to avoid all that nonsense.

This financial earthquake will shake everyone, where ever you are ... including Thailand (hence this emergency meeting )

just do it (if you can)... dont talk about it

dont forget the 15% witholding tax on interest ....